Staff
and wires
In a long-delayed annual report to Congress, the
Defense Department said on Friday that
At the same time, winning control over the
self-governing island of 23 million people would let
Beijing is now focusing on intimidating Taiwan
into reaching a settlement with it, the report said, adding that thanks largely
to Russian arms supplies, Beijing was gaining "an increasing number of
credible options to intimidate or actually attack Taiwan."
U.S. policy has been to help Taiwan maintain a
defense capability, but Washington does not favor Taiwanese independence.
"China's doctrine is moving toward the goal
of surprise, deception and shock effect in the opening phase of a
campaign," said the annual report on Chinese military power. "China
is exploring coercive strategies designed to bring Taipei to terms quickly."
Such options include possible air and missile
campaigns or a naval blockade.
The sobering assessment is the first time the
United States has taken stock of Chinese military trends since Bush took power
in January last year, and the first since June, 2000.
Previous reports released during the Clinton
administration said that China lacked sufficient military might for outright
confrontation.
But China has pushed ahead with modernizing its
military -- bolstering its arsenal with medium-range missiles and new
submarines and destroyers -- a move the Pentagon says has been spurred by a
potential conflict in the 100-mile (160-km) wide Taiwan Strait.
In March, Beijing announced a 17.6 percent or $3
billion increase in spending, bringing the publicly reported total to $20
billion.
But total military spending in fact is closer to
$65 billion, and annual spending could increase in real terms three- to
four-fold by 2020, the Pentagon said.
China is seeking to "diversify its options
for use of force against potential targets such as Taiwan and to complicate
United States intervention in a Taiwan Strait conflict," the report said.
"While it professes a preference for
resolving the Taiwan issue peacefully, Beijing is also seeking credible
military options," it said.
"Should China use force against Taiwan, its
primary goal likely would be to compel a quick negotiated solution on terms
favorable to Beijing."
One of the most troubling developments is China's
buildup of short-range ballistic missiles in Fujian
province, opposite Taiwan, the report said. They now total about 350 missiles
and are growing at 50 missiles per year.
"The accuracy and lethality of this force
also are increasing," the report said, adding the missiles are ready for
"immediate application" if called upon.
China's growing clout, including computer hacking
and air and missile attacks, also presented challenges to "other potential
adversaries, such as the Philippines and Japan," the report said.
China is at odds with the Philippines and others
over boundaries in the South China Sea, and Beijing opposes any expansion of
Japanese power in the region.
China is developing variants of the mobile CSS-6
missile that would pose a threat to the Japanese island of Okinawa, where
thousands of American forces are based, the report said.
China, which also strongly opposes Bush's plans to
build a missile shield, currently fields about 20 ocean-hopping ballistic
missiles capable of hitting the United States -- a number that will rise to
about 30 by 2005 and may reach 60 by 2010.
Another problem area is China's recent acquisition
of Russian-made submarines, which could be used to cut off Taiwan's sea lanes
and to threaten American forces that might respond.
In 1996, President Clinton sent two U.S. carrier
battle groups to the region to signal support for Taiwan after China fired
missiles into the sea off Taiwan's two main ports.
Kurt Campbell, the Pentagon's top policy-maker on
China under Clinton, said in an interview quoted by wire reports that the real
worry for some U.S. officials was not the declining Russian arsenal "but
the rising Chinese one."
-- CNN's Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr contributed to this report