Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A92-W37
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A92-W37
Release Date: December 10, 2004
发布日：2004年12月10日
Topic: Wei Jingsheng: We Must Give Up Wishful Thinking about the New Communist Leadership
标题：魏京生：放弃对胡温体制的幻想
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
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Wei Jingsheng: We Must Give Up Wishful Thinking about the New Communist Leadership
(Written on September 20, 1004, partially broadcast by Radio Free Asia)
The 4th Conference of the 16th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party has come to an end. This conference was considered of extreme importance and thus it received overwhelming attention. However, it gave nothing new in policy change except one important action, which is that Jiang ZeMin gave up his military leadership and thus completed the process of transfer of all the controlling power into one person. All those who paid attention reacted swiftly and made commentaries immediately, which reflects the anxiety in general. In summary, there are two types of attitudes.
The first type could be called optimistic. This attitude is represented by the Democratic Progress Party in Taiwan. To express it in Mr. Wang Dan's words (as reported by news media including the Central Agency in Taipei on September 19, 2004): Hu Jintao represents the faction within the Chinese Communist Party that loves peace and is for democracy. Their rising into power means the speeding up of the Chinese democratic process, thus peace across the Strait is more likely. An important spokesperson, Mr. Cao ChangQing, also said that now Taiwan could declare independence immediately without worrying about a military invasion from Mainland China. Such claims made it appear that the most important fruit of a democratic China is to be good for Taiwan's independence. That this weird conclusion could be cultivated out of this type of wishful political culture is indeed a major "product" from more than one hundred years of the open mind movement in China.
The other type is more pessimistic, although different reasons are expressed. The opinions mostly in agreement are that there is nothing new with the advent of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao - they will continue and maintain the policy of the Jiang Zemin era. There is no hope for political reform. The relationship across the Strait still will be under the tension. Hu and Wen will continue in the footsteps of their predecessors Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin.
The Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition groups all hold the later opinion. We think that the consistent dictatorship of the Chinese Communists will not change simply because of the renewing of its leadership. This renewal is the result of natural causes, but not the result of policy debate. It does not contain the motivation to change its policies and systems, and thus will not bring major change. The conclusion of the optimists does not have the facts straight, instead it is a combination of their dreaming and a thoughtful face-lift by the Hu/Wen leadership.
The Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition will not change our strategy; instead we will continue our role of opposition against the new dictatorial system. We shall push on the fronts of free press and free speech, with our goals for human rights and legal reform, in an effort to finish the one party dictatorship and build the modern democratic society.
Our stand comes from the following reasons:
First, this time of power transfer was not the result of moderate democratic fraction within the Chinese Communist Party versus the ones in power. It came from those people in the Communist hierarchy who were not happy with the effort of conflict reduction during the later part of Jiang/Zhu era. The major powerhouse that put an end to the Jiang/Zhu group came from the "Older Comrades" faction who represented the interests of both power and money combined together.
Second, the most noticeable action that the Hu/Wen group took after they came to power was to reduce the fight on corruption, while increasing their effort to suppress all sorts of opposition. Those people who visit the Internet often will have noticed that they have not loosened their suppression of FaLunGong while they have increased the lengths of the sentences handed down to non-religious dissidents by more than a factor of two. The government has also rapidly enhanced their Internet blockage. These actions could be counted as virtually the only major adjustments between the Hu/Wen and Jiang/Zhu eras.
Third, the ideological expression of Hu/Wen coming to the power is to "raise high the old-revolutionaries' flags", with an emphasis on "Marxism, Leninism and Mao Zedong's thoughts", and the action of visiting the "Chinese Communists' Mecca". The media has also turned around, airing many more entertainment programs describing the "Communism era", while the period before Communist power has reduced tremendously in practice. There are people who wanted to take a chance by walking on the marginal side. They produced the popular TV series "Walking toward the Republic". Well, it was banned by the direct order of Hu Jintao. With a foundation of this type of ideology, is it mistaken to call them the faction of the Chinese Communist Party who "loves peace and supports democracy"?
In response, the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition calls for all the righteous people both inside and outside China to continue in our role of opposition, to continue our work to end the Chinese Communists' one party dictatorship, and to build a modern democratic system with respect to everyone's freedoms and human rights.
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中文版
Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A92-W37
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A92-W37
Release Date: December 10, 2004
发布日：2004年12月10日
Topic: Wei Jingsheng: We Must Give Up Wishful Thinking about the New Communist Leadership
标题：魏京生：放弃对胡温体制的幻想
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
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魏京生：放弃对胡温体制的幻想
中共16届4中全会结束了。这次被认为极其重要，受到各界广泛关注的会议没有任何政策上的新内容，只有一个极为重要的内容，就是江泽民交出了军委主席的职务，完成了集大权于一身的统治权力转移的过程。 各界关注者反应都很迅速，纷纷发表评论，显示了评论者们迫不及待的心情。综合一下不同的评论，大致分以下两种态度。
一种是乐观派，以台湾的民进党为代表。用王丹的话来说就是：胡锦涛代表中共内部爱好和平，追求民主的一派，他们掌权意味着中国民主化进程可以加快，台海两岸的和平有保障（中央社台北2004年9月19日电）。这一派的重要发言人曹长青说，台湾可以立即独立，不用担心大陆武力犯台，等等。这似乎大陆民主化最重要的结果就是有利于台湾独立。一厢情愿的政治文化可以推论出如此怪诞的结论，真是中国百年来思想开放运动的一大硕果。
另一种是悲观派，意见并不集中，共同的看法是胡温的政策并无新意，仍将维持江泽民时代的路线不变。 政改没有希望，两岸仍将紧张。胡温体系将是邓小平，江泽民体系的延续。
中国民主运动海外联席会议的一致看法属于这后一种观点。我们认为中共一贯的专制制度并没有因独裁者的换届而有本质的变化。这种换届是自然规律的结果，而不是政策争论的结果。它没有包含改变政策和体制的动机，也不会带来重大改变的结果。乐观派的推论没有事实根据，只不过是良好愿望和胡温派花言巧语相结合的结果。
中国民主运动海外联席会议将不会改变策略，将一如既往的站在反对派的立场上，反对新的独裁专制体制，以推动言论自由为前导，人权法制为核心目标，争取结束一党专政的体制，建立现代民主制度。
中国民主运动海外联席会议的立场是基于以下的一些根据：
第一, 这一次的权力转移并不是什么温和民主派与当权者斗争的结果，而是中共上层的既得利益对江泽民，朱熔基集团后期实行的对内，对外缓和冲突政策不满的结果。推翻江朱集团的主力并不来自中共和人大内部要求民主和法制的势力，而来自所谓“老同志”所代表的官商勾结的集团。
第二, 胡温上台以来最有代表性表现就是收缩反腐败的规模，同时加大对各种反对派势力镇压的力度。常上网的朋友们都能看到，虽然对法论功的镇压力度没有改变，但是对各种非宗教的异议人士的判刑增加了，刑期按同比增加了一倍以上。而且迅速加强了互联网的封锁。这也是胡温相对于江朱政策的唯一重大调整。
第三，胡温上台前后的意识形态表现，是“高举老前辈的旗帜“，强调马列主义毛泽东思想。刚上台就前往“革命圣地”朝拜，近两年的媒体导向也朝着“革命复古”的方向大幅度转变。中共各时期历史的文学作品急剧增加，中共以前的大幅度减少。有人想打擦边球，拍了一个“走向共和”，就被胡锦涛本人禁演了。有如此意识形态基础，说他们是中共内的“爱好和平，支持民主”的派别，真是天大的冤枉。
基于以上主要根据，中国民主运动海外联席会议呼吁海内外正直人士放弃幻想，一如既往地以反对派的姿态推动结束中共一党专政，建立以每一个人的自由和人权为前提的现代民主制度。
（写于2004年9月20日。部分内容在自由亚洲电台上播出。）
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