Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A102-W43



Release Date: Jan 16, 2005



Topic: 2004 China Review - by Wei Jingsheng

标题:魏京生: 2004年回顾


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)





2004 China Review

- by Wei Jingsheng, written on December 22, 2004



The year 2004 is coming to an end. Individuals and organizations are reviewing their progress and setbacks. Some would use the review to spin their own success to gain some free publicity. The Chinese Communist Party is an expert on spinning. In the eyes of the people, the Communist 'reviews' always report the good and neglect the bad, so much so that the people do not know what to believe. So the people learn to be indifferent to those self-reflections and self-congratulations.


Besides their own individual reviews the people still want to learn about what happened, especially as it affects their lives. They want to learn the truth and different points of view so they can decide for themselves. Different social classes, educations, professions, and situations affect their views and judgments. A good decision requires different and wider views. Here I would like to offer a view of China in the year 2004 that is different from that of the Chinese Communist, foreign governments and media.


In 2004 the Hu Jintao - Wen Jiabao administration faced two advances, and the troubles brought along with these advances as well. The first was that Jiang Zemin completely handed over all powers. So now Hu/Wen have full power and full responsibility. From now on Hu/Wen will not have any excuses. They can't pretend to be the 'liberal' wing of the Party to deceive the people. Particularly in the later part of 2004, Hu/Wen began to show their real faces. There was an increasing tendency to revive policies of the Mao era: intensifying media control and suppressing dissidents. Several more 'liberal' media outlets have been 'reorganized'; the 'black lists' of individuals and media have expended. Many black listed individuals and articles have disappeared from public view. Those disappearances greatly reduced reporters', editors', and peoples' abilities to tell the truth; leading to a more severe deception of the people. It is unfair to characterize people who come from China as dumb. The truth is that they have been deeply deceived.


The second advance was in foreign policy. While focusing on the war on Iraq, anti-terrorism, and adjusting relations with European allies, the United States relaxed pressure on China and made numerous concessions. That enabled the low-classed Chinese diplomats to get away with threats, lies, extortions and other cheap tricks. China boasts that its foreign policy has been successful in 2004. That boast also portends severe future reactions to those tricks. We shall see what will happen in the longer-term future.


China's troubles have just begun and will be revealed more down the road. Currently, their worst headache is financial and fiscal. Since last year the world and especially the United States have tried to persuade China to de-link the Yuan and the U.S. dollar. The disadvantage is a decrease in the growth rate of Chinese exports. The advantage is that when the U.S. adjusts her enormous economy, China would not be shaken too badly. Due to China's illusionary economy and heavy dependence on U.S. and European markets, China undervalues her Yuan to increase export. Premier Wen overestimates China's economic strength. He also underestimates the United States' ruthless determination in defending her economic integrity. Wen mistakenly thinks that by bribing a few businessmen and politicians he can influence US economic policy. So when the US acts to defend her economy by devaluing her currency, China faces a choice:


Keep the link: China can keep the growth of dollar-based foreign trade. However, the increase earnings decrease the value of the reserve overall. It is a net loss.


De-link: When international investors sell their billions of Yuan holdings it will create drastic financial turbulence; inflation, fiscal instability, and economic collapse. Additionally these investors earn huge profits from the transactions, emptying China's reserve. In the short term, keeping the link has been less harmful. The only loss is the loss of currency valued in trillions. However, the problem persists and accumulates. It will head to an even worse crisis someday. Observing the current trend, it appears that Wen is following this policy. As a student of the previous premier Zhu RongJi, his delaying strategy is transferring the harm to the populace. This time not only the poor will suffer. The suffering will extent to the rich. The reason is that the poor has not much more that can be exploited anymore.


The second problem is that the poor have exhausted their patience. They have started small-scale protests, and now the protests have been increasingly more organized, intelligent, and systematic.  The protests have increased in size and frequency as well, and the deception and violent means of suppression by the Chinese government is no longer effective. The riot of Hanyuan in Sichuan is a typical example of this transition. Adding to the first problem (the currency-linking), China faces a huge, scary crisis that fits our Chinese description of "pouring gasoline on a fire".  Hu Jintao might have to wear a helmet to order the suppression on the streets again this time, and deemed to be choice-less in transferring the crisis.  Even from overseas, I fear for the rich and tears for the poor.



(Written on Dec. 22, 2004.  Partially broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.  Translation credit: Robert T. Huang.  The Wei Jingsheng Foundation is responsible for the accuracy of this version of the English translation.)




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Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A102-W43



Release Date: Jan 16, 2005



Topic: 2004 China Review - by Wei Jingsheng

标题:魏京生: 2004年回顾


Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)





魏京生: 2004年回顾
















-- 魏京生









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