Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A102-W43
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A102-W43
Release Date: Jan 16, 2005
发布日：2005年1月16日
Topic: 2004 China Review - by Wei Jingsheng
标题：魏京生: 2004年回顾
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
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2004 China Review
- by Wei Jingsheng, written on December 22, 2004
The year 2004 is coming to an end. Individuals and organizations are reviewing their progress and setbacks. Some would use the review to spin their own success to gain some free publicity. The Chinese Communist Party is an expert on spinning. In the eyes of the people, the Communist 'reviews' always report the good and neglect the bad, so much so that the people do not know what to believe. So the people learn to be indifferent to those self-reflections and self-congratulations.
Besides their own individual reviews the people still want to learn about what happened, especially as it affects their lives. They want to learn the truth and different points of view so they can decide for themselves. Different social classes, educations, professions, and situations affect their views and judgments. A good decision requires different and wider views. Here I would like to offer a view of China in the year 2004 that is different from that of the Chinese Communist, foreign governments and media.
In 2004 the Hu Jintao - Wen Jiabao administration faced two advances, and the troubles brought along with these advances as well. The first was that Jiang Zemin completely handed over all powers. So now Hu/Wen have full power and full responsibility. From now on Hu/Wen will not have any excuses. They can't pretend to be the 'liberal' wing of the Party to deceive the people. Particularly in the later part of 2004, Hu/Wen began to show their real faces. There was an increasing tendency to revive policies of the Mao era: intensifying media control and suppressing dissidents. Several more 'liberal' media outlets have been 'reorganized'; the 'black lists' of individuals and media have expended. Many black listed individuals and articles have disappeared from public view. Those disappearances greatly reduced reporters', editors', and peoples' abilities to tell the truth; leading to a more severe deception of the people. It is unfair to characterize people who come from China as dumb. The truth is that they have been deeply deceived.
The second advance was in foreign policy. While focusing on the war on Iraq, anti-terrorism, and adjusting relations with European allies, the United States relaxed pressure on China and made numerous concessions. That enabled the low-classed Chinese diplomats to get away with threats, lies, extortions and other cheap tricks. China boasts that its foreign policy has been successful in 2004. That boast also portends severe future reactions to those tricks. We shall see what will happen in the longer-term future.
China's troubles have just begun and will be revealed more down the road. Currently, their worst headache is financial and fiscal. Since last year the world and especially the United States have tried to persuade China to de-link the Yuan and the U.S. dollar. The disadvantage is a decrease in the growth rate of Chinese exports. The advantage is that when the U.S. adjusts her enormous economy, China would not be shaken too badly. Due to China's illusionary economy and heavy dependence on U.S. and European markets, China undervalues her Yuan to increase export. Premier Wen overestimates China's economic strength. He also underestimates the United States' ruthless determination in defending her economic integrity. Wen mistakenly thinks that by bribing a few businessmen and politicians he can influence US economic policy. So when the US acts to defend her economy by devaluing her currency, China faces a choice:
Keep the link: China can keep the growth of dollar-based foreign trade. However, the increase earnings decrease the value of the reserve overall. It is a net loss.
De-link: When international investors sell their billions of Yuan holdings it will create drastic financial turbulence; inflation, fiscal instability, and economic collapse. Additionally these investors earn huge profits from the transactions, emptying China's reserve. In the short term, keeping the link has been less harmful. The only loss is the loss of currency valued in trillions. However, the problem persists and accumulates. It will head to an even worse crisis someday. Observing the current trend, it appears that Wen is following this policy. As a student of the previous premier Zhu RongJi, his delaying strategy is transferring the harm to the populace. This time not only the poor will suffer. The suffering will extent to the rich. The reason is that the poor has not much more that can be exploited anymore.
The second problem is that the poor have exhausted their patience. They have started small-scale protests, and now the protests have been increasingly more organized, intelligent, and systematic. The protests have increased in size and frequency as well, and the deception and violent means of suppression by the Chinese government is no longer effective. The riot of Hanyuan in Sichuan is a typical example of this transition. Adding to the first problem (the currency-linking), China faces a huge, scary crisis that fits our Chinese description of "pouring gasoline on a fire". Hu Jintao might have to wear a helmet to order the suppression on the streets again this time, and deemed to be choice-less in transferring the crisis. Even from overseas, I fear for the rich and tears for the poor.
(Written on Dec. 22, 2004. Partially broadcasted by Radio Free Asia. Translation credit: Robert T. Huang. The Wei Jingsheng Foundation is responsible for the accuracy of this version of the English translation.)
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中文版
Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A102-W43
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A102-W43
Release Date: Jan 16, 2005
发布日：2005年1月16日
Topic: 2004 China Review - by Wei Jingsheng
标题：魏京生: 2004年回顾
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后））
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魏京生: 2004年回顾
2004年就要过去了，照例大家都要回顾总结一下这一年来的得失。就像有些厂家会利用这种回顾总结给自己吹嘘吹嘘，做个免费的广告。中共也早就学会了这一手，每年利用这个机会总结总结，发个社论、讲话什么的。用老百姓的话说，就是报喜不报忧，永远形势一片大好。但是老百姓听得云山雾罩，不知究竟。干脆也就懒得听他们的表扬和自我表扬相结合。
但是大家除了总结一下自己以外，还是希望知道自己周围发生的大事。特别是当这些大事和自己息息相关的时候，人们更需要知道真相，需要听到不同的声音，然后自己做判断。不同阶层，不同职业，不同教育水平和不同处境的人，可能会做出不同的判断，但都需要从不同的角度观察，扩大视野，以使判断准确。现在我就给大家提供一个不同于中共，不同于其他外国政府，也不同于各国媒体的角度，来考察一下中国这一年来的形势。
胡温新体系今年可以说是大顺的同时也开始了大不顺。大顺主要是两件事。首先是江泽民完全交出了权力，胡温开始了完全掌权也要完全负责的时期。胡锦涛温家宝从此不必假装成小媳妇的模样，把责任推给别人，因此不必也不能假装成党内民主派骗取人们的信任。特别是在今年下半年，胡和温开始展现他们本来的面目。政治上要恢复毛泽东时代许多做法的声调越来越高了；对言论的控制收紧了；对反对派的镇压加强了。用杀鸡吓猴的方法整顿了几家比较开放的媒体的同时，扩大了报刊媒体黑名单。许多被列入黑名单的名字和文章都从大众的视野中消失了。这极大地打击了所有编辑记者说真话的胆量，使老百姓能听到的真话数量更少了，被欺骗的程度更加严重了。说国内出来的人都傻傻的，这不公平，实际上他们是受骗太深了。
中共的第二大顺利是外交。美国由于集中精力于反恐和伊拉克战争，以及必须调整和欧洲盟国的关系，不得不放松了对中共的压力，对中共做出了许多的让步。这使得中共的蹩脚外交家可以顺利地玩弄他们的低级外交花招，收买欺诈威胁利诱等等。所以中共自己很得意地说他们这一年来的外交是“得心应手”。但也因此埋下了花招破产遭遇反弹的机会，他们越是洋洋得意放胆去做，越是会物极必反。我们拭目以待。
中共的大不顺现在还没充分展现出来，仅仅不过是开始而已。最让中共头疼的是金融和财政形势。去年以来，国际社会特别是美国一直善意地劝温家宝把人民币和美元脱钩。这样做的坏处是降低中国的出口增长率，好处是当美国这个经济巨人调整经济时，中国经济不会产生巨大的震荡。因为中国虚假的经济繁荣过分依赖北美和欧洲的市场，为了扩大出口，人民币被过分低估了。可是温家宝不听劝告而且以自己的小花招儿心中窃喜。他高估了中国经济的实力，低估了美国为保护自己利益而置中国死活于不顾的决心，以为收买几个大企业和政客，就真的可以左右美国的决策了。结果，当美国为了保护自己的经济增长而调低美元汇率时，中国面临着人民币被迫与美元脱钩的压力。不脱钩，中国的以美元计价的外贸能保持增长，但赚来的钱远远少于因美元贬值蒸发掉的外汇储备，得不偿失；脱钩，则国际游资手中的几万亿人民币会冲击中国金融，不但赚走大笔价差，掏空中国的外汇储备。还会造成严重的通货膨胀，进而造成金融危机和经济崩溃。从短期看，不脱钩受害较小，仅仅是损失上上万亿人民币的价值而已。但压力并没消失而是积累在那儿，总有一天会产生更大的金融危机。从目前情况看，温家宝采取的是这个策略。作为朱镕基的学生，他下一步要做的就是在拖延的这段时期中，迅速地把困难转嫁给老百姓。这一次可能不仅转嫁给穷人，富商巨贾们可能统统要为胡温新政做贡献了。因为穷人已被朱镕基榨光，没多少油水了。
第二大不顺利就是穷人不断忍无可忍进行小规模自发反抗，而且开始进入智慧型的有目标有策略有组织的大规模反抗，甚至还迫使中共不能仅仅以欺骗加血腥镇压来解决问题。四川汉源事件就是反抗转型的标志性事件。如果温家宝再转嫁危机，无异于火上浇油，胡锦涛得再次戴上钢盔上街指挥镇压了。这次面对的可不是手无寸铁的善良市民了。但是，不转嫁危机又如何呢？他们的日子真难过。我隔海观望都替中国的富人捏一大把汗，替中国的穷人掬一大把泪了。
-- 魏京生
2004年12月22日
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