Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A103-W44
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A103-W44
Release Date: Jan 17, 2005
发布日：2005年1月17日
Topic: Prospect of China in 2005 - by Wei Jingsheng
标题：魏京生: 2005年展望
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Prospects for China in 2005
- by Wei Jingsheng, December 22, 2004
At the end of 2004, it is wise to review the year's activities and prepare for next year. Some thoughtful people would also forecast the future so as to formulate a plan. There are routine elements that do not differ much. Even the differences are fairly normal. The most demanding elements are those that have no regularity, no rules to follow and thus are unpredictable. After several years of turbulent changes among the Chinese Communists, the Chinese people increasingly realize that the changes may not be so routine or normal. The coming years may bring huge, earth-shaking possibilities that drastically change their lives.
When I reviewed the year 2004, I discussed China's domestic and international environments and some advances and drawbacks. Let me expand on them and make some prediction of developments and explore their implications for our lives.
In the beginning, the Hu/Wen propagandists overseas suggested that with Jiang completely withdrawn from the political stage, we would see the beginning of China's democratization. Now it is obvious that that is not the case. As I said before, when competing for power everyone tries to gain support from the populace. Once the power is in hand, the rulers revert to their true nature - suppressing the people. To put it another way, when Jiang still held power, Hu/Wen could blame Jiang for any mistake. Now that Jiang is not available for the blame game, Hu/Wen must bear the responsibility for policies and practices. This development in a way lets people clearly see their nature, and clarifies their stand so they can no longer fool the people.
Their first 'advance' was in foreign policy. For a while, Hu/Wen had smooth sailing due to the U.S. and European's delusion. Now their disillusionment is setting in. The largest achievement in China's foreign policy was the establishment of the six-party conferences on North Korea's nuclear development. China used North Korea's Kim Jung-il to gain concessions in human rights, trade, Taiwan, weapon sales ... Then Kim backed off. Everything evaporated. That obviously was a trick on all the parties to start with. But no one would be fooled a second time. So will that vicious Chinese foreign minister Li play the same game for a second time? I can relate to the difficult spot minister Li is in.
The second 'advance' was in the economy. Due to the linkage with the US dollar, China lost billions. In the past, the loss would have been transferred to the populace. However, the people have gotten smarter. While the Yuan valuation relative to the dollar remains unchanged, inflation has already set in. As soon as the economy appears to be uncertain, inflation may lead to economic collapse and the burst of the prosperity bubble. For the Chinese people who clearly know what Hu/Wen are about, it is like pouring gasoline on a fire.
This burst of deception will result especially in social rebellion. In the past the rebellion was moderate. This was not due to 'non-violent' sentiment, but to the people’s wishful hope for the Chinese communists and its legal system. It is not that the people didn't know they are entitled to use any means to assert their rights. It is due to a residual delusion of judicial fairness of the government. When a government deprives its people of these judicial entitlements, it is a totalitarian power. When that happens the people are entitled to seek extra-judicial means of asserting their rights. Such are the means by which the Chinese people repeatedly struggled against tyranny for 20-plus centuries. It has become a part of the Chinese culture. Even the most illiterate do not need any instruction or education, yet gain that knowledge from storytelling and drama plays. This is the cultural basis for the gradual resistance transformation in recent years. The speed of transformation is proportional to the realization of the tyranny of the government. The reduction of illusion leads proportionally to less tolerance. When tolerance has been exhausted, the people's behavior will be unpredictable.
As of now, the social conflict and the opposition formality have reached the turning point. Hu's reverting to Mao's policies, in a way, is involuntary. It may not be his personal choice. It is a predictable, unavoidable ultimate development of totalitarianism. When a totalitarian system has a choice between deceit and suppression, there is some survival possibility. When the only choice is suppression, it reaches its end.
Dear friends, I earnestly suggest that when you make plans for 2005, keep this possibility in mind.
(Written on Dec. 22, 2004. Partially broadcasted by Radio Free Asia. Translation credit: Robert T. Huang. The Wei Jingsheng Foundation is responsible for the accuracy of this version of the English translation.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
This is a message from WeiJingSheng.org
The Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help in any means. We pledge solidarity to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this planet.
You are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website at: www.weijingsheng.org
Although we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your contribution as well. You may send your articles, comments and opinions to: HCP@weijingsheng.org. Please remember, only in text files, not in attachments.
For website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web master at: webmaster@Weijingsheng.org
To find out more about us, please also visit our websites at:
www.WeiJingSheng.org and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org
for news and information for Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and human rights and democracy movement as whole, especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.
You may contact Ciping Huang at: HCP@Weijingsheng.org or
1-202-270-6980 for emergency or
Wei Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-543-1538 Fax: 1-202-543-1539
Wei Jingsheng Foundation's address is:
415 East Capitol Street, SE, Suite 2, Washington, DC 20003-3810, USA
Its postal address is:
Wei Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA
You are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process your request.
*****************************************************************
中文版
Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A103-W44
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A103-W44
Release Date: Jan 17, 2005
发布日：2005年1月17日
Topic: Prospect of China in 2005 - by Wei Jingsheng
标题：魏京生: 2005年展望
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
-----------------------------------------------------------------
魏京生: 2005年展望
在这年终岁尾的时候，除了准备过年和总结一年来的大事之外。有头脑的人还同时要预测未来的形势，以便做下一步的计划。家常便饭的东西就不必说了，那大概没有太大的变化，有变化也是规律性的变化，以常规应付就行。最让人费心思的往往是看起来离得远，有点摸不到够不着的大形势。经过共产党这几年的折腾，中国人越来越明白，这个大形势有时会造成不规律性的变化，会彻底改变人们的生活，因此不可不察。
在对2004年的回顾中，我和大家讨论了国内国际的大形势，以及中国的两个大顺和两个刚刚开始的大不顺。现在我就把话题再延伸一下，预测一下这个大形势可能的发展以及和我们个人的关系。
原先小胡的吹鼓手在海外的媒体上炒作说：“老江下台小胡完全掌权就是中国民主化的开始。”现在大家看到了，完全相反。原因就是我以前说过的：他们鹬蚌相争时，都得争取各界的支持，换句话说，都不得不收买人心；一旦大权在握，没有什么顾虑了，就会拿出看家的本事整治老百姓。从另一面看，原先小胡作了坏事可以加装成小媳妇，把责任推给老江。现在不行了，一切责任都得归在他自己，因此他的面目变得更加清晰了。这个清晰对看者来说是个好事--不容易误会了；对表演者来说可就不是好事了--不容易骗人了。
不容易骗人的第一个结果会兑现在外交上，过去一年所谓的“得心应手”，主要是美国和欧洲的外交家们因为对中共胡温集团抱有不切实际的幻想，上了当。现在他们的幻想破灭了，胡温的面目清晰了，一切会回到正常的轨道上来。去年中共的第一大外交成果来自围绕北韩核问题的外交。用金正日换人权，换贸易，换台湾，换军售，换了一大堆东西。最后金正日又退回了原来的立场，明显地把大家玩了一把。但大家都不是傻瓜，可一而不可再。接下来那个面目凶恶的李外长该怎么玩儿呢？难。我很同情他，我深知中国搞外交有多难。
不容易骗人的第二个结果兑现在经济上。因为外汇储备缩水带来的近万亿损失，按过去的惯例要转嫁给老百姓。一方面老百姓现在学乖了，人民币不升值，物价已经先涨上去了，是存钱还是存物，聪明人都往一个方向想。温家宝不好做。一旦币值开始动荡，经济就要崩溃，泡沫化的繁荣就会破灭。这个破灭对于已经看清胡温面目的中国社会来说，就是火上浇油。
不容易骗人的最大结果兑现在社会的反抗上。过去人们大多采取温和的形式反抗，主要不是因为“和平民主非暴力”的宣传，而是人们对中共和它操纵下的法制还存在希望。既然还有希望就没有必要走极端，所以人们就“真善忍”了，大多选择温和的反抗形式。这并不等于人们不知道自己“有权以任何手段反抗暴政”。 “有权以任何手段反抗暴政”的权力是人民的最重要的集体人权，它来源于每个人的基本人权。当一种政治剥夺了人们最基本的人权时，这个政治就是暴政。暴政剥夺了人民享受公平待遇的司法权利，同时就赋予了人民在法律以外寻求公平的权力。这就是造反的权力的法学来源。中国人二十多个世纪以来反复使用着这个权力，这早已是中国文化的一部分，用不着有人煽动或教唆。每一个不识字的老农都从戏文和故事里面接受了充分的教育。这就是近年来中国社会的反抗形势逐渐转型的文化来源。转型的速度和暴政清晰化的速度成正比。也就是说，人们对中共的幻想越多，“真善忍”的比例就越高；人们对中共的幻想越少，从“真善忍”到“忍无可忍”的比例就越高。以汉源事件为代表反抗转型，正是中国社会从大多数人“真善忍”到大多数人“忍无可忍”的转折点。“真善忍”是中国文化经过两千多年的筛选找到的极限值，统治阶级过了线，百姓就被逼无奈只能过线。否则就只有忍而没有真和善了。
中国社会矛盾和反抗形式走过转折点的形势，改变着人们的行为。胡锦涛的政治纠偏毛泽东化，也是不得已而为之，并不是个人倾向的选择。准确点儿说，是专制暴政的必然发展规律。当暴政还可以选择欺骗和镇压这两手的时候，他还有一点儿生命力。当他只能选择镇压的时候，他就快到头了。每一位朋友规划了自己明年的行动时，应充分估计到这个大气候的变迁。
-- 魏京生
2004年12月22日
-----------------------------------------------------------------
魏京生基金会及中国民主运动海外联席会议以推动中国的人权与民主为己任。
我们欢迎任何形式的帮助与贡献。我们愿与世界上为人权与民主而奋斗的人们一起努力。
我们希望您能够帮助我们散发我们的资料。但请标明出处与我们的网址：www.weijingsheng.org
欢迎投稿（暂无稿费）或批评建议，请寄信箱: HCP@WEIJINGSHENG.ORG
魏京生基金会地址:
415 East Capitol Street, SE, Suite 2, Washington, DC 20003-3810，USA
魏京生基金会通讯地址：
Wei Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA
电话: 1-202-543-1538 传真：1-202-543-1539
紧急联系：1-202-270-6980 (黄慈萍)
魏京生基金会网址：WWW.weijingsheng.org
中国民主运动海外联席会议及中国团结工会的网址为：www.ChinaLaborUnion.org
阁下之所以收到本信，是因为阁下以前曾表示有兴趣了解魏京生先生和中国
民主运动。倘若阁下希望不再收到类似信息，请回复本信并用 unsubscribe 作为主题(Subject)。