Wei Jingsheng
Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A122-O30
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A122-O30
Release Date:
April 8, 2005
发布日：2005年4月8日
Topic: The
Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition 2005 Annual Report - A review and an
Outlook (by WEI Jingsheng)
标题：中国民主运动海外联席会议2005年会议形势和任务报告(魏京生)
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
-----------------------------------------------------------------
The Overseas
Chinese Democracy Coalition 2005 Annual Report
- A review and
an Outlook by WEI Jingsheng
1. International
Environment
Under the
leadership of the U.S.A., the unilateral anti-terrorism morphs into
multi-lateral promotion of freedom and democracy. On the one hand, the Iraq
situation tends to be irreversible. On the other hand, unilateralism and
anti-terrorism brought the U.S.A. a lot of trouble, leading to disharmony with
allies and confusion. That gives China advancement in international politics.
The North Korean nuclear crisis and the Taiwan Strait tension seriously
threaten world peace and Western interests. Western nations must review and
adjust their policies and relationship to meet the new challenges.
As we can see,
the new Bush Administration replaces and absorbs anti-terrorism with freedom
and democracy banners. That change gained the allies' welcome, repairing some
of the damages of unilateralism. In the handling of Syria, Iran and Lebanon the
Administration did not use the Afghanistan-Iraq model. The change is toward
more effective strategic and political means. The relations with Muslim world
are gradually turning away from Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations"
towards a more pragmatic relationship adjustment. This is a new approach,
indicating a de-emphasis of Arabic affairs and the beginning of an Asian focus.
2. The Chinese
Situation
From the
standpoint of U.S. economic and political interests, the natural resources of
West Asia and Africa and the economic development of East Asia present equal
challenges. Western Europe and Japan have roughly similar interests. Eastern
Europe, Russia, India, and South America are turning inward, seldom getting
involve in international politics. China, taking advantage of the disharmony
between the U.S. and Europe and the U.S. focus on Iraq, has moved forward on
its own agenda: to increase its influence in Pacific Asia, taking the
opportunity to get into the Eastern block for influence and control. China is also expanding and enforcing
its "Shanghai relationships", which include the supply line to Europe
through Russia; enlarging the gap between the U.S. and Europe through the
dispute over the ban of European weapon sales to China; attempting to
thoroughly divide the U.S. - Europe alliance in case of a Sino - U.S.
confrontation. The agenda also aims at softening the stands of Australia, New
Zealand and other Oceania nations; instigating tension in North Korea and
Taiwan confronting the U.S. right at China's door. The Chinese Communist Party
increasingly appears to compete with the U.S. for hegemony in Pacific Asia;
replacing the former USSR as the world leader of the dictatorial cartel in
competition with the democratic nations. The foreign policy approach of the Hu
Jintao group is very different from Deng Xiaoping's 'compromise for peace to develop
the economy' approach - he is returning to Mao Zedong's ideology to pursue a
status as a global superpower of the world.
Hu's new policy
recognizes that the 'socialist market reform' and 'compromising foreign policy'
of Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin have reached the end of the road. In Deng's
policy, the reform was limited to economic policy. There was no political
reform. That created the cruelest exploitation and suppression - far exceeding
that of early Western capitalism. Official abuses and the rich-poor gap reach
historically unprecedented proportions. Widening the rich-poor gap intensifies
social and class conflicts. The collapsing system cannot be resolved by a high
rate of economic growth. The fruit of economic growth is not enjoyed by most people
because of its limitations due to the lack of political and social reform. The
dictatorial nature of the system and the rampant illegal practices endanger
social development and stability. There are only two choices left: thorough
political reform or collapse. If thorough reform is not implemented, any
conflict, even internal conflict among the ruling class, can lead to total
collapse of the system.
3. The Chinese
Communist Party's Response
Facing the
crisis of confidence and the crisis of morality in the entire society, the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) lost the absolute authority to maintain unity. So
the Hu-Wen regime promotes extreme nationalism and a war stance as the only
feasible way to regain authority. These promotions are also the only way for
the CCP's dictatorial system to continue its rule. The method follows the
precedent of the previous two CCP rulers. The onset of the Mao and Deng rules
in their earlier years depended on external wars to establish dictatorial
authority, to suppress opposition and thus stabilize rule. Only the Jiang-Zhu
reign was an exception, and thus had to give up its power at the end.
Facing war or
the collapse of the CCP, the Chinese Democrats have two principal tasks:
building an opposition and establishing opposition parties. There are also two
main responsibilities: preventing war and accelerating the collapse of the CCP
and the rapid recovery toward democracy building. The most urgent prerequisite
is to build a strong and effective opposition party, leading a democratic
alliance. Of course, the CCP will
fervently try to prevent and destroy the democratic forces. There will not be a
peaceful coexistence in such a struggle. There is absolutely no compromise. As
the old Chinese saying: the wolves will eat the sheep; the tree leaves could
not stop when the wind wants to blow.
The willingness of the sheep and tree leaves cannot change the reality
they face. Those people who try to
persuade the sheep to dance with the wolves are either naively misguided, liars,
or the co-conspirators of the wolves. We democratic colleagues must recognize
the struggle - without any illusions.
4. The
Opposition
Currently the
CCP's main aim is to destroy the opposition. The methods include: cutting off
resources, bribing (the opposition) with a variety of rewards and destroying
the flagships. They have been
quite effective in doing so in the last 15 years.
A. The CCP is
cutting off resources through a variety of means:
a) By cutting
off external resources to dissidents in China - forcing them to be unemployed,
destabilizing their finances and families, and leaving no resources left for
any activities in promoting democracy and human rights;
b) By utilizing
the power of foreign commercial and academic interests to reduce the
fund-raising capacities of overseas opposition;
c) By causing
the diversion of resources to non-democratic advocators or to those who are
totally ineffective. This approach
satisfies the voting citizens in the Western democratic world, yet does not
offend their business interests.
B. The CCP is
bribing (the opposition) with variety of rewards.
Right after the
Tiananmen Massacre, the Jiang-Zhu clique used the 'blockade' method. After a
few years, the sentiment has cooled. However, the blockade policy was not
modified. E.g. dissidents were still refused permission to return to their
homeland even for a last visit with dying relatives. This caused fence sitters
to get off the fence - joining or rejoining the democratic movement. That
turned out to be a recruiting tool for the troubled democratic movement,
although it is problematic on the quality of the recruits. On the other hand there were turncoats
to the CCP side. They were added to the undercover agents sent by the CCP. At
times the former were more destructive than the latter. Even though the former
retain a residue of conscience, it still had a softening effect on the
democratic movement. This is a
success of the Chinese Communists.
C. The CCP is
destroying the Flagships.
This element is
the key of the CCP's strategy. Without leaders there is no organization, no
movement. The failure of the June 4 Movement came when its leaders retreated
and gave up the democratic movement. This strategy testifies to the CCP's
success in damaging the Overseas Chinese democracy movement as well. The
Chinese have a saying: 'Easy to recruit 1000 soldiers, hard to find a general'.
The nurture of a leader takes personal qualities, experience and training, as
well as times and the timing. The loss of a leader takes a huge toll and the
time to replace her or him causes a void and confusion. During the last 26
years the problem of the Chinese democracy movement has been the preservation
and protection of leaders. When
every dissident vies for the leadership, it contributes to the fatal error of
our movement - unwittingly helping the CCP to burn our own flagships. This is
the main reason that many consider our Chinese as a plate of loose sand. To
eliminate the flagship, one has only to sow confusion and distrust, isolating
the captain and thus reducing the authority as well as the effectiveness. There
are many strategies such as weaken the strong for weak, set up a different
leadership and discredit the current, etc. Although we don't have concrete
evidence, we must consciously oppose these kinds of activities and prevent
those who could be professional undercover agents in an effort to burn our
flagships. We have suffered a lot from these sabotages in the past. We must
constantly be vigilant.
5. Summary
Our goal is to
move history forward and improve humanity. History does not allow us to make
choices nor command change. China, along with the world as it now is, must have
its casual reasons as well as its natural causes. We can't passively accept the
situation. The situation does not
wait till we are ready. We must
strengthen our structure while utilizing the situation to reach our goal. Today, we are here to discuss and
contemplate how to realize our goals.
Tomorrow, we will return to our separate places, to take actions to
realize our goals - to struggle and sacrifice to eliminate totalitarianism and
build a democratic China.
-- Wei Jingsheng
Chairman,
Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition
March 18, 2005
(Translation
credit: Robert T. Huang. For most
precise and detailed content,
please refer to the Chinese version.)
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中文版
Wei Jingsheng
Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A122-O30
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A122-O30
Release Date:
April 8, 2005
发布日：2005年4月8日
Topic: The
Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition 2005 Annual Report - A review and an
Outlook (by WEI Jingsheng)
标题：中国民主运动海外联席会议2005年会议形势和任务报告(魏京生)
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
-----------------------------------------------------------------
中国民主运动海外联席会议
2005年会议形势和任务报告
一、国际形势
以美国为主导的国际形势。从单边主义反恐向多边合作推动民主自由的方向转化。这一方面因为伊拉克的局势已经稳定到了不可逆转；一方面也因为单边主义和反恐给美国带来了很多的麻烦。盟国失和；阵营混乱；导致中国崛起。西边按下葫芦，东边浮起瓢。北朝鲜的猖狂和台湾海峡的危机，更严重地威胁到世界和平和西方的利益。西方各国必须调整他们的关系和政策，以应对新的形势。
因此我们现在看到：新一届布什政府用推行民主自由的大目标，取代和兼并了反恐的目标。在欧洲各国欢迎的前提下，美国主动采取行动弥合受到单边主义伤害的美欧关系，并产生了效果。在伊朗和叙利亚、黎巴嫩事务上并没有采取阿富汗和伊拉克模式，而改为更具政治性和策略性的有效手段。和整个穆斯林世界的关系，正在渐渐摆脱“亨廷顿”思维的影响，走向更为现实主义的调整关系阶段。换句话说，已从前几年的打破旧格局阶段，转化为确立新格局的阶段。美国不再扩大格局调整的范围，预示着阿拉伯事务已处于收尾阶段；东方事务即将进入开始阶段。
二、中国形势
从美国的政治利益和经济利益来看，西亚和非洲的资源与东亚的经济增长同等重要。欧洲和日本的利益与美国大致相同。东欧、俄罗斯、印度和南美注意力内向，很少插手国际事务。只有中国采取攻势外交，利用反恐阶段美欧之间的不和，也利用美国集中力量于伊拉克无暇西顾的时机。加大对亚太国家的压力，乘势挤进东盟并扩大影响力和控制权。扩大和巩固“上海合作组织”的联盟关系，打通经俄罗斯至欧洲的供应线。以欧洲售华武器解禁案扩大美欧之间的裂痕，进而达到在可能发生的中美战争期间彻底分化西方集团的目标。软化澳大利亚、新西兰等大洋洲国家的立场。制造北朝鲜和台湾海峡的危机，迫使美国跨越太平洋到中国门口来较量。中国共产党政权越来越明显地摆出一付与美国争夺地区霸权的态势，企图取代苏联，成为世界专制国家和势力的领袖，与民主国家集团分庭抗礼。从整个态势上看，胡锦涛集团彻底改变了邓小平“妥协维持和平发展经济”的外交路线，又重新回到了毛泽东主义的“争霸全球”的理想。
胡温集团改变外交路线，一方面是因为所谓的“社会主义市场经济改革”已走到了尽头；另一方面是邓小平和江泽民时代的“妥协外交路线”也走到了尽头。改革经济而不改革政治的邓小平路线，创造出比早期资本主义还要残酷的剥削和压迫。腐败官场和贫富差距创下古今中外最高纪录。一方面社会矛盾和阶级矛盾日益激化，一方面官商一体权钱勾结堵塞了缓和矛盾的渠道和弱化了权力机构的功能。整个体制走向崩溃的趋势，已不可能被经济增长所消解。经济增长的利益，因为政治体制的先天缺陷而不可能为大多数人所分享。政治体制的专制和非法制化极明显地阻碍社会的生存和发展。彻底改革和崩溃是不可回避的两种可能性。如果彻底的政治改革仍不被中共所采纳，崩溃的局面已危若累卵。任何一种矛盾，甚至统治阶级内部的矛盾，都可能是第一个松动的坏蛋。
三、中共的对策
为了稳住每一个可能松动的坏蛋，需要特别的黏合剂。在信仰丧失，伦理道德堕落的现实中，面对全社会的不信任，中共无法重建绝对的权威来维持社会的团结。因此，冒险煽起极端爱国主义的狂热，靠一场战争树立威信，是胡温集团有希望成功的唯一出路。也是中共专制统治有希望延续下去的唯一出路。何况中共的前两代领导集团已有先例，毛泽东和邓小平在执政初期，都是靠发动对外战争树立权威，压制了内外反对派而稳定了他们的统治。没发动战争的江朱集团最后不得不让位，成为胡温集团的前车之鉴。
面对着战争或者崩溃的局面。中国民主运动除了主要任务—建立反对派和反对党之外，还肩负着两项同样重要的使命。第一是努力制止战争；第二是促使和加速中共政权的崩溃，并使崩溃后的恢复进程走向民主。为达成这两项使命的最重要的前提，是建立起坚强而有效力的反对党，以及由反对党带领和引导的反对派联盟。同理，中共为延缓其专制统治，而必须走向战争和阻止其专制体制的崩溃，也就必须消灭或瓦解反对党和反对派。在苟延残喘的中共专制集团和力图建立民主的反对党之间，没有和平共处的中间道路。狼要吃羊，树欲静而风不止，羊和树的一厢情愿丝毫也改变不了现实。劝说羊应该去主动与狼共舞的人，只能是骗子或狼的同伙。还有一种可能是脑壳有病。究竟是哪一种状况，值得民运同僚们认真辨认。
四、反对派
目前中共消灭和瓦解反对派，阻止反对党建立和运作的主要手段，是断粮道，招安和砍旗帜。这也是中共十五年来行之有效的手段。
A:断粮道的手段有三。
<1>阻挡和减少国内被发现的异议人士获得外部援助，并尽可能使他们找不到工作。使他们生活陷入困境，难以筹措活动经费。
<2>利用对西方商界和学界的控制力，尽量减少海外民运筹集经费的来源。
<3>促使剩余的经费来源流向意志消退或与民运无关的人士或组织。并利用西方政客倾向于既花钱让选民满意又不得罪商界的心态，达成此目标。
B:招安的政策，胡温新政已大大放宽。放宽的原因来自正反两方面的经验教训。江、朱时代封堵的政策，在六、四刚过的高温期是必须的。几年后各界特别是海内外民运情绪渐冷，危险性降低而中共仍然怕得要死。封堵反倒迫使很多动摇份子不得不留在民运阵营里摇旗呐喊维持生存。甚至某些动摇份子摇尾乞怜，跪地恳请“祖国给予”他们回国权时，江朱仍未及时调整政策。这反倒成为问题重重的海外民运居然得以生存的重要条件之一，同时也带来鱼龙混杂的弊病。在招安政策放宽之前，中共已开始运用他们几十年特务工作的成功经验：拉出去，打进来。除派遣的特务之外，招安的业余特务所起的破坏作用更加明显，大有取代派遣特务而成为主流之势。特别需要指出的是，迫于各种原因被招安的民运人士，大多因有良心而不可能为中共特务机关工作。抓特务运动实质上是涣散民运队伍的手法之一。但是，虽然不为特务机关工作，招安前后心态的变化仍是瓦解民运斗志的有效麻醉剂。虽然人还在心不死，但立场的软化毕竟起到客观上瓦解斗志的作用。这是中共的成功之处，也是民运叛徒们教会了中共。
C:砍旗帜始终是中共对付海内外民运的重头戏。没有领袖就没有团体，没有团体也就没有运动。89民运的失败，就起因于领袖放弃了责任。海外民运的节节失利，也起因于中共砍旗工作的节节成功。产生一个领袖并不是可以心想就成的容易事。古语讲，千军易得一将难求，就是这个道理。难就难在他即需要有必备的条件，也还需要机遇和过程。不是几个人开个会起哄就能架起来的秧子。而砍倒一面旗，就是一大片和一长段时间的空白和混乱。２６年来海内外民运起起伏伏的原因之一，是不珍惜自己的旗帜。甚至人人都自以为是面旗帜，客观上帮助中共砍了自己的旗帜。这种井蛙式的土秀才心态是中国人的一大病根，是一盘散沙的最主要的原因。砍旗的基本手法是造谣惑众消灭群众基础；除强扶弱消灭权威中心；挑拨离间孤立领袖个人；另立中央造成事实混乱。凡积极推动此类活动的人，可基本认定为专业或业余特务。我们虽然抓不到法定证据，但必须头脑清醒地抵制他们的活动。否则必败于宵小之手。多年来民运已深受其害。
五、结论
我们是一群积极推动历史进步的人，但历史并不是由我们来安排和选择的。世界和中国的形势走到今天这个样子，自有它的必然规律和偶然原因。我们的任务不是被动地接受它，形势也不会等着我们准备好了才开始启动。我们必须在加强自身结构的同时，顺应和利用形势去达到我们的目标。我们这些人聚会在这里，就是为了研究和探讨如何达成我们的一个任务和两项使命，明天我们分散到各地，将把我们的言论付诸行动。为消灭专制制度建立民主中国而牺牲奋斗。
报告人：魏京生
2005年3月18日
（魏京生基金会首发。 转发请注明出处。 www.weijingsheng.org）
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