Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A146-M9
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A146-M9
Release Date: August 25, 2005
发布日：2005年8月25日
Topic: Democracy and Security - Long-Term Issues in the Sino-US Relationship (by Fang Jue)
标题：中美关系的长期问题：民主和安全 - 方觉
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
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Democracy and Security - Long-Term Issues in the Sino-US Relationship
-- by Fang Jue
August 24, 2005
In September 2005 China's top leader Hu Jintao will visit America.
After President Bush started his second term in January 2005, he often mentioned that Sino-US relations were "complicated". This careful wording shows the conflicting feelings the US has toward China.
In June 2005 when US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld spoke in Singapore, he called upon China to carry out political reforms. In July 2005 while in Beijing, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also publicly called upon China to open up its political system. None of these unprecedented appeals have received positive responses from the Chinese government.
In his second term Bush has clearly defined his foreign policy goals as spreading democracy and freedom all over the world. This is the most important advance that American foreign policy has made in the 14 years since the end of the Cold War. If we look at American public opinion we see that the Republican Party has a greater chance of being re-elected to the White House in the next Presidential election. The newly elected government presumably will continue this important foreign policy goal. Even if the Democratic Party takes power, it would be inappropriate for them to completely discard this universal-value-based foreign policy goal. Whether the American leadership is openly calling on China to undergo political reforms or open up its political system, in reality it is hoping that China will start to democratize.
The democratization of China is actually not an empty and vague concept, nor is it unfathomable; it is practical and easy to understand. At its root, democratization in China will simply allow the public to enjoy political benefits. China's regime should use popular elections as a base from which to open up other political forces; China should, with a multi-party system as a foundation, move toward political participation from all social classes. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), however, is determined to resist sharing political benefits with others. If this monopolization of political benefits is not weakened, then the CCP's conflict with other political forces will never be resolved; The mainstream international community will never recognize China as a trustworthy democratic partner.
Because the political power of the dictatorial political party and authoritarian regime is too great and too concentrated, it's easy for those in power to stubbornly stick to their political ideas. The CCP has always believed that through repressing other political forces, sealing them off economically and cutting off their information channels, it could forever maintain its monopoly on Chinese political interests. Practical reality and history have shown that this kind of political stubbornness is always smashed in the end. In the last few years, more and more Chinese people have felt disappointed with and resentful of the CCP's imperiousness, corruption, and gang-like activities, and more and more Chinese intellectuals have, due to their value system and sense of justice and morality, left the CCP. Amongst them are emerging more and more skeptics, challengers, and protestors. The origins of these phenomena and other indications show that this trend of opposing the CCP will continue and expand. Under this trend new political forces and political representatives will emerge. It has not gone unnoticed that, be it the tiniest and weakest Communist nation like Albania or the strongest one, the Soviet Union, in the end, all of them lost their monopoly on political power.
Democracy and security are closely related. Democratic countries usually follow international regulations and are usually peace-loving. Thus the US government has spread democracy and freedom as a channel to establish international security. Conversely, if a non-democratic country possesses massive economic and military forces, it may expand that power outward, and may take concrete actions in order to maintain its non-democratic political interests. Growing numbers of Americans have misgivings that China is taking the path of a rising non-democratic superpower.
In the report entitled "The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005" that it submitted to the US Congress, the US Department of Defense expressed its deep concerns with the rapid growth of Chinese military power and the growing influence it would have on regional military balance and the structure of global military strategy. The Chinese government did nothing but criticize the report in an abstract manner, doing nothing to alleviate the worries that many countries have about China's military growth. Just the opposite, in August 2005 China and Russia conducted their first-ever large-scale joint military exercises in the coastal region of the Far East. It was as if China wanted to play the "solid military power card" before Mr. Hu Jintao arrived in the US.
One typical American government opinion is: China has been rapidly upgrading its military capability even though it faces no outside military threat. Its true intentions have gone far beyond the necessity to intimidate Taiwan, and even beyond the need to maintain regional security and balance. If we look at the poor record of China's proliferation of weapons, or its continuing to support Iran, Myanmar, Sudan, and other rogue states and problem states, and consider China's close relationships with the neo-authoritarian regimes of Russia, Central Asia, and former Soviet Union nations or with other autocratic governments, the unstable aspects of a non-democratic China should make people around the world even more worried.
Even though China and America have some common economic and trade interests, these limited interests are severely offset by the huge trade deficit the US has with China, Americans' huge loss of job opportunities, China's wide-ranging infringements on US intellectual property rights, China's unfair Renminbi-Dollar exchange rate, and other negative issues. In the future Sino-US economic conflicts, competition, and struggles will increase. While in the last few years some common economic interests between China and America have diluted Americans' focus on democracy and security, this proclivity for trade is now facing criticism and resistance in America. Recently when China's CNOOC Ltd. tried to buy UNOCAL failed, it was because American security concerns surpassed economic concerns. In the future there will more Americans realizing both that accelerating the economic growth of a non-democratic China is unsafe, and that the costs of replacing global democratization with the profits of a few American companies will be too great.
China has never played a major role in the global struggle against terrorism. Even though the US and China collaborate on occasion in opposing terrorism, no serious American believes that China is playing an important role. The struggle against terrorism is winning greater and greater victories. The struggle against terrorism is turning towards despotic countries, pushing forward democracy and severing global weapons proliferation networks. These victories and this new direction are not good tidings for China. America's needs and expectations toward China in the struggle against terrorism are diminishing. The CCP's attempts to use the struggle against terrorism to turn America away the issues of democracy and security surrounding China will become more difficult.
Not long before Hu's visit to the US, Chinese officials allowed the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) to visit China and agreed to let the U.N. Commission on Human Rights' special rapporteur on torture tour China's jails. Actually, China and the US had already scheduled these visits for 2003 during a December 2002 human rights dialogue, but the Chinese government went back on its word, obstructing and delaying the visits until today. The American political community already has doubts about whether Sino-US human rights dialogues produce any real results or not. The CCP has continued the tactics consistently used during the Jiang Zemin era: before China's leaders visit America, put a few less important "human rights cards" on the table. This in fact shows that China does not see improving its human rights situation as a condition for initiating a process of democratization; rather, it continues to use human rights as a diplomatic bargaining chip.
In conclusion, there is no sign that the issues of democratization and security in the Sino-US relationship will be substantially resolved. With this kind of gray backdrop, a fundamental improvement in the Sino-US relationship is impossible.
(The author is a Chinese political activist living in America.)
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中文版
Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A146-M9
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A146-M9
Release Date: August 25, 2005
发布日：2005年8月25日
Topic: Democracy and Security - Long-Term Issues in the Sino-US Relationship (by Fang Jue)
标题：中美关系的长期问题：民主和安全 - 方觉
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2005/report2005-08/FangJ050825HJTvisitA146-M9.htm which contains identical information.
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中美关系的长期问题：民主和安全
-- 方觉
2005年8月24日
2005年9月中国最高领导人胡锦涛将访问美国。
2005年1月布什总统开始第二个任期之后，多次谈到美中关系是“复杂的”。这一谨慎的用语体现了美国对中国的矛盾心情。
2005年6月美国国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德在新加坡演说时，呼吁中国进行政治改革。2005年7月美国国务卿赖斯在北京也公开呼吁中国实行政治开放。这些前所未有的呼吁都没有得到中国政府的正面回应。
布什政府第二个任期将美国外交政策的首要目标明确为在全世界推广民主和自由。这是冷战结束十四年来美国外交最重要的进步。从美国国内的主流民意看，四年之后共和党再次执政的可能性比较大。届时的美国政府会延续这一首要外交目标。即使是民主党当政，也不便完全放弃共和党政府的这一有普遍价值的首要外交目标。美国领导层无论是呼吁中国进行政治改革，还是呼吁中国实行政治开放，其实质都是希望中国启动民主化。
中国的民主化并不虚无飘渺，也不高深莫测，它是现实的，也是浅显的。说到底，中国的民主化就是要实行政治利益的公众分享：中国的政权要在普遍选举的基础上向其它政治力量开放，中国的政治进程要在多党制的基础上走向各阶层的政治参与。但是，中共政权坚定地拒绝与他人分享政治利益。这种政治利益的垄断不削弱，中共政权同其它政治力量的矛盾就永远不会缓解，中国就永远不会被国际主流社会视为可信赖的民主伙伴。
专制主义政党和威权主义政权由于权力过大、权力过于集中，所以容易产生政治执迷。中共政权一直相信通过对其它政治力量的政治压制、经济封锁、信息隔绝，就可以永远垄断中国的政治利益。现实和历史都在说明这种政治执迷将被打破。最近一些年，越来越多的中国民众对中共政权的专横、腐败、帮派色彩深感失望和怨忿，越来越多的中国知识分子在价值观念和道义立场上离开中共。他们当中正在产生越来越多的怀疑者、挑战者、抗议者。有迹象和根源表明这种反对趋势将持续并扩大。在这种反对趋势中会形成新的政治力量和新的政治代表人物。人们没有忘记，无论是最弱小的共产党国家阿尔巴尼亚，还是最强大的共产党国家苏联，最终都突破了共产党对政治利益的垄断。
民主同安全紧密相关。民主国家通常是遵守国际规则的，通常是爱好和平的。因此，美国政府把在全世界推广民主和自由作为建立国际安全的根本途径。反之，如果一个非民主国家拥有了巨大的经济力量和强大的军事力量，它就有可能向外部世界扩张，也有可能为了捍卫非民主的政治利益对外采用实力手段。日益增多的美国人疑虑中国正在走向这条非民主的世界大国的崛起之路。
美国国防部向国会提交的《2005 年中国军力报告（The Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2005）》，就中国军事力量的快速增长对地区军事平衡和全球战略格局的日益加大的影响表达了深度关切。中国政府只是空洞地指责了这个报告，却没有用行动缓解许多国家对中国军力增长的忧虑。相反，2005年8月中国与俄罗斯在远东沿海地区首次举行了大规模联合军事演习。中国似乎是要在胡锦涛先生访美前夕，向美国展示一张带火药味的“实力牌”。
美国的一种有代表性的意见认为：中国在没有面临任何国家的军事威胁的情况下持续地快速增强军力，其真实意图已经超出了威慑台湾的需要，甚至超出了维持地区安全平衡的需要。如果考虑到中国在武器扩散方面的不良记录，考虑到中国继续支持伊朗、缅甸、苏丹等流氓国家（Rogue States）和问题国家（Problem States），考虑到中国同俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、中亚的前苏联共和国等新威权主义政权和新专制主义政权的密切关系，非民主的中国的不安全因素就更令世人担忧。
尽管中美之间在经济贸易上有一些共同利益，但是这些有限的共同经济利益正在被美国对华贸易的巨额逆差、美国国内工作机会的大量流失、美国的知识产权受到广泛侵犯、人民币对美元的比价极其不合理等负面因素严重抵消。今后中美之间在经济领域的摩擦、竞争、冲突将会增多。如果说前些年美中某些共同经济利益冲淡了一些美国人对民主和安全的考虑，那么这种偏向正在受到来自美国国内的批评和抵制。最近中国海洋石油股份有限公司收购美国优尼科石油公司（UNOCAL）宣告失败，就是美国的安全考量超越了经济考量的例证。今后将有更多的美国人不仅会认识到促进非民主的中国的经济快速增长是不安全的，而且会认识到以某些美国公司的对华利润取代全球民主化代价太高。
中国从来不是世界反恐怖主义斗争的重要角色。尽管美国有时说美中在反恐反面有一些合作，但是可能没有一个严肃的美国人真的认为中国在反恐斗争中发挥了重要作用。反恐斗争正在取得越来越大的胜利。反恐斗争正在转向在专制国家推进民主和在全球范围切断武器扩散网络。这种胜利和转向对中国不是福音。美国在反恐方面对中国的需要和期待都在降低。中共政权利用反恐之机分散美国对中国的民主问题和安全问题的关注将变得更加困难。
在胡锦涛先生访美前不久，中国官方允许美国国际宗教自由委员会代表团访问中国，也同意联合国酷刑问题特别调查人参观中国监狱。这些安排其实都是2002年12月中美两国政府人权对话确定的2003年的项目，由于中国政府食言并阻挠而拖延至今。美国政界早已对美中人权对话的实际效用深表怀疑。中共政权沿袭江泽民时期的一贯手法，在其主要领导人访美前夕丢出几张分量轻微的“人权牌”，恰恰表明中国不是把改善人权状况作为启动民主进程的条件，而是继续把人权问题作为外交筹码。
总之，没有趋向显示美中关系的民主问题和安全问题将得到实质性的解决。在这个灰色的大背景下，美中关系不可能根本改善。
（完）
以上为编者向您们推荐的文章。文中作者的观点并不代表本基金会或魏京生先生本人的观点与立场。
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