Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A152-W68
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A152-W68
Release Date: September 23, 2005
发布日：2005年9月23日
Topic: What Lay Ahead after HU Jintao's White House Visit Got Cancelled? -- by WEI JingSheng
标题：胡锦涛白宫访问被取消之后的中美关系 -- 魏京生
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
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What Lay Ahead after HU Jintao's White House Visit Got Cancelled?
-- by WEI JingSheng
Recently an event happened that has profound and far-reaching effects but that did not lead to extensive media attention: Bush's decision to cancel Hu 's trip to the White House. Hu has a lot of problems both internally and internationally. He also has the ambition to carry out some major actions, but diplomacy has always being his weakness. Therefore, Hu 's fraction prepared for this visit for over half a year, in an effort to: first to stop Hu's authority in China from continuing to worsen rapidly; secondly, they wanted to alleviate the growing reaction in American society against the Hu/Wen regime's nuclear war threats. These two goals are what Hu , who is facing both domestic dissent and external problems, urgently needed gift from the USA. But unfortunately for him, he was not able to achieve them.
The White House had sufficient reasons to cancel Hu's visit. Hurricane Katrina has had a devastating effect on New Orleans, with thousands upon thousands injured and dead and with hundreds of thousands of refugees left in its wake. In any country where there are large-scale disasters, it's perfectly justified for the nation's leaders to abandon vacations or ceremonial activities to deal with the crisis. Hu had nothing to complain about. But Communist Party officials were full of complaints, knowing that this did not go along with what Hu/Wen regime wanted to achieve but went well with the faction against Hu/Wen. In the USA side, this does not fit the State Department's stand, but went perfectly well with the White House and Defense Department's stance on the issue. The decision to cancel the visit will cause subtle conflicts of interest on both the Chinese and American sides. Thus, it is hard to say what will be of the final outcome; at the very least there are five possibilities.
The first possibility is that will not have any major changes within different camps of both country, and Sino-US relations will continue to cool off. When Bush visits China at the end of the year, the Chinese government will retaliate against him while receiving him. In this way Sino-US relations will inevitably and quickly grow colder. It will be hard to change this trend in the coming a few years.
The second possibility is that the State Department's view on China will prevail and the US will use any means possible to repair the relationship and will give Hu a lot of face. But the anti-Hu faction in China will of course think that the US overtures are not enough and will have enough power to keep from giving Bush any more face at home; in fact is not give Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice any face. As a result Sino-US relations will continue to cool off.
The third possibility is that Hu 's opposition faction's views were not favored but that the Department of Defense's views prevail in the US administration. The Chinese government will warmly receive President Bush, but Bush will not return the same warmth to Hu. In the end this will cause the anti-Hu faction in China to grow stronger, and Sino-US relations will continue to cool off.
The fourth possibility is that the prevailing of anti-Hu faction combines China's fanatical nationalism, giving Hu no way of warmly receiving President Bush. When the Defense Department's views prevail in the US, America would not take kindly to the humiliation they'll receive from China, like what Japan's prime minister received. The US will postpone Bush's visit to China, leading to the same result the first three possibilities led to: Sino-US relations will continue to cool off.
The fifth possibility is that the pro-Hu faction prevails in China and Hu warmly receives President Bush. The State Department's views prevail in the US and will repair the Sino-US relationship in response. The Sino-US relationship gradually ceases to cool off and may even begin to warm up again. In acting unawares of the problems that cropped up between the US and China, Hu will, on the one hand, allow the US to let down their guard, and on the other hand, stir up Chinese nationalism, which will be beneficial for Hu/Wen regime's war plans, but not beneficial for peace in the Asia-Pacific region. I predict that Hu will follow this fifth path. It's hard to say what Bush and Rice will choose. Because of this, the future of the Asia-Pacific region is still unclear. We'll wait and see.
(Written on September 14, 2005.)
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中文版
Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A152-W68
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A152-W68
Release Date: September 23, 2005
发布日：2005年9月23日
Topic: What Lay Ahead after HU Jintao's White House Visit Got Cancelled? -- by WEI JingSheng
标题：胡锦涛白宫访问被取消之后的中美关系 -- 魏京生
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2005/report2005-09/WeiJS050923HJTvisitA152-W68.htm
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胡锦涛白宫访问被取消之后的中美关系 -- 魏京生
最近发生了一件影响深远、但并没有引起媒体广泛关注的事情。这就是布什取消了胡锦涛到白宫的访问。胡锦涛面临着诸多的内外难题，又有野心做出一些大的动作，而外交一向是他的弱点，所以胡锦涛的人马为了这次访问做了半年多的准备。这么做，首先是为了弥补他在国内威信迅速下滑的局面。其次，缓解美国社会对胡温集团核战争威胁越来越大的反感。这两项目标都是内忧外患的胡温集团迫切需要的礼物，遗憾的是，他们没有得到。
这次白宫取消访问的理由十分充足。新奥尔良地区台风水灾非常严重，死伤成千上万，难民有几十万。这在任何国家都是大型灾难，国家领袖们放弃休假和礼节性活动处理危机，是名正言顺理所当然的事情。胡锦涛没什么可抱怨的。但中共内部还是充满了怨言，这不符合胡温集团的利益，但符合反胡联盟的利益。在美国方面，这不符合国务院的立场，但符合白宫和国防部的立场。这在双方都会引起微妙的利害冲突。因此结果很难预料，至少有五种可能性。
第一种可能性是两国四方都没有多大变化，中美关系继续降温，年底布什访华时，中国政府也会在接待礼仪上对等报复布什。这样中美关系加速降温将成定局。在今后的几年中很难改变这个趋势。
第二种可能是美国国务院的意见占上风，美国在今后的两个月中采取补救措施，给胡很大的面子。但中国内部反胡势力肯定认为不够，并有足够的能力阻止给布什更大的面子，实际上是不给赖斯面子。结果中美关系仍将继续降温。
第三种可能是胡锦涛的反对派意见占下风，但美国国防部的意见占上风。中国政府热情接待布什，但布什不会热情回报胡锦涛。最终导致中国内部反胡派势力上升，中美关系仍将继续降温。
第四种可能性是中国内部的反胡派结合爱国主义狂热，意见占上风，胡无法热情接待布什。美国国防部意见占上风，美国不想接受中国的羞辱，象日本首相那样。美国推迟布什访华，结果与前三种可能性相同。中美关系继续加速降温。
第五种可能性，是中国内部胡派意见占上风，热情接待布什。美国方面国务院意见占上风，采取补救措施配合。中美关系将逐渐停止降温，并有可能重新热闹起来。胡受了冷落假装不知道的做法，会一方面缓和美国的警惕心，一方面会刺激国内民族主义狂热，有利于胡温集团下一步发动战争，而不利于维护亚太和平。我估计胡锦涛会做这第五种选择。布什和赖斯国务卿如何选择，很难估计。因此，亚太和平的前景如何，并不明朗。我们大家将拭目以待。
（写于2005.9.14.）
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