Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A162-O44
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A162-O44
Release Date: October 30, 2005
发布日：2005年10月30日
Topic: The State of China and Its Future Prospects -- a Written Speech by Wei Jingsheng
标题：中国的形式和前途 -- 魏京生在巴黎"《九评共产党》研讨会"上的书面发言
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
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Editor's note:
On October 23, 2005, a seminar on the nature of the Chinese Communist Party was hold in Paris with more than 200 attendees. It was sponsored by the French Branch of Epoch Times and the French Chapter of the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition. The seminar started with a written speech by Mr. Wei Jingsheng, the head of the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition. It was read by the head of the OCDC French Chapter, Mr. ZHANG Jian. The following is Wei Jingsheng's written remarks.
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The State of China and Its Future Prospects
By Wei Jingsheng
Everyone knows that China is already sitting on a volcano that could explode at any time. Yet no one can predict when it will explode. Because of this, we should observe the development and future possibility of social conflicts in China.
People often say that intense social conflicts and clashes have been around for a long time in China. 3-inch-thick ice can't be formed in a single wintry day. If we look at the overall picture, there have been roughly three stages.
The first stage started in the Mao Zedong era. When the Chinese Communist Party first seized power it had a seemingly democratic political structure. It was able to win sincere support from the people, so it quickly and steadily tided over the difficult economic situation of the time, rapidly restoring the economy. At that time China's economic conditions were the best in Asia and were truly a miracle, being superior to the conditions in Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Yet at the same time, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) established its autocratic system one step at a time, establishing this system in politics, the economy, and cultural matters and in other areas. At this time the CCP's main targets for attack were the cadres and the intelligentsia. Even though these attacks caused great disasters for the people, yet people stayed in an ignorant and relatively satisfied state because of the policy of egalitarianism put in by the CCP. By the time of the Cultural Revolution, the people, full of hatred, directly went after a few government officials and police officers. Yet they didn't directly hate the CCP.
The result of this autocratic system, however, was that the economy hit a recession, and resentment pervaded the middle and upper classes of society. Deng Xiaoping later changed Mao Zedong's pure Communist system and began to open up for a market economy; at the same time, he maintained political and cultural autocracy. During the first half of this period - that is, the Deng Xiaoping Period - this policy began to create corrupt politics and economic disparities, and gave rise to dissatisfaction in the whole society. Yet the people still hadn't cast off the mold of only opposing the phenomenon (avaricious officials) and not opposing the emperor. The people still held great hope for the CCP regime itself. But the corruption that the people opposed had already reached the highest levels of government; that is to say, it had reached the point where the problem could no longer be resolved. This led to the eruption of the June 4th massacre, which shocked the world; it also brought about the 1989 democracy movement. The movement's demands were for democracy and freedom, but in its slogans the movement still only opposed corrupt officials and not the emperor.
Yet the June 4th suppression smashed the common peoples' dreams of honest officials and sages; at the same time, it also smashed Deng Xiaoping's dream of a half-capitalist, half-communist society. In the Jiang Zemin Era of the 1990's, the CCP gradually gave economic privileges and interests to China's intelligentsia, cadres and military officers. This created a situation in which these three groups of elites united to create a class of bureaucrats that on their own initiative took control of a stable monopoly on the capitalist class. Yet this also created an immense class of poor workers and peasants as well as an utterly enormous and destitute proletariat.
The discrepancy between the rich and poor and class conflicts are the main reasons for the clashes happening today. In the last 55 years, Chinese history has taken a big detour, going from dreams of equal prosperity to a serious wealth gap and intense class conflicts. The Chinese people have again taken up the ideas of democracy and freedom, but this time people are more sober-minded and steadfast, and the base of society behind these ideas is more extensive. History has again come to a crossroads. Every person must make a choice and decide which path he or she wishes to take. As Mr. Sun Yat-Sen once said: "The great wave of democracy is vast and mighty; those who go along with it prosper, and those who oppose it perish."
Photo links of the event:
1. The hosts and speakers for the seminar:
http://weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2005/newsletters2005-9/Paris051023speakers-3.jpg
2. Audience who participated the seminar；
http://weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2005/newsletters2005-9/Paris051023audience-4.jpg
3. Full participants in discussing the nature of the Chinese Communists:
http://weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2005/newsletters2005-9/Paris051023seminar-4.jpg
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中文版
Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A162-O44
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A162-O44
Release Date: October 30, 2005
发布日：2005年10月30日
Topic: The State of China and Its Future Prospects-- a Written Speech by Wei Jingsheng
标题：中国的形式和前途 -- 魏京生在巴黎"《九评共产党》研讨会"上的书面发言
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2005/report2005-10/WeiJS051030ParisA162-O44.htm
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中国的形式和前途 -- 魏京生在巴黎"《九评共产党》研讨会"上的书面发言
10月23日下午，《大纪元时报》法国分社、中国民主运动海外联席会议法国分部，在巴黎华侨文教中心举办了题为"五百万民众退出中共--中华民族的觉醒"的第五次"《九评共产党》研讨会"。特邀原中国驻悉尼总领馆一等秘书、负责政治事务的领事陈用林以及原任职于天津市国家安全局和天津市610办公室的一级警司郝凤军出席研讨会。参加此次大会的特邀嘉宾还包括前法国国际广播电台中文部主任兼主编、前新华社资深记者吴葆璋，和1980年率团访法期间脱离中共，投奔自由的高级工程师姜友陆。
二百多位与会者听取了陈用林与郝凤军投诚的缘由和经历，并踊跃提问。
中国民主运动海外联席会议魏京生先生特为本次研讨会发来致辞，并由该联席会议法国分部的代表张健代为宣读。以下为魏京生先生的书面发言。
中国的形式和前途
-- 魏京生
大家都知道，中国现在的形势已经是一座火山，随时可能爆发。但什么时候会爆发，谁也无法预言。因此我们应该观察一下中国社会矛盾的发展和将来的可能。
人们常说，中国社会尖锐的矛盾和冲突，向来已久。冰冻三尺，非一日之寒。从总体上看，大致有三个阶段。
第一个阶段在毛泽东时期。共产党刚刚夺取政权的时候，是一个貌似民主的政治结构。它能够得到人们真心的支持，所以很快而且很稳定地渡过了经济困难期，迅速地恢复了经济。当时中国的经济壮况是亚洲最好的，的确是个奇迹，比当时的日本、台湾、香港都好。但与此同时，共产党在一步步地建立他们的专制体系，在政治、经济、文化各个方面创建了他们的专制体系。这个时期共产党主要的打击对象是文化知识界和干部。这些虽然给人民造成了巨大的灾难，但由于平均主义的政策，使人民处于愚昧的相对满意的状态。到文革为止，人们痛恨的是直接欺压他们的少数官吏和警察。并不直接痛恨共产党。
但是专政体制的结果是经济萧条。造成社会中上层的普遍不满。邓小平改变了毛泽东的纯正共产主义体制，开始开放市场经济，同是坚持政治和文化的专制。这种政策的前半期，也就是邓小平时期，开始产生腐败政治和贫富不均。引起全社会的不满。但这种不满仍然没有摆脱只反贪官不反皇帝的模式。人民仍然对中共政权本身抱有极大的希望。但仅反贪官的层级，已经达到最高层，也就是到了无法缓和的地步，因此爆发了举世震惊的六四惨案，同是产生了89民主运动。运动的要求是民主自由，但运动的口号，仍然是只反贪官、不反皇帝。
但六四的镇压粉碎了百姓们的清官圣君的梦想，同时也粉碎了半资本主义的邓小平之梦。90年代的江泽民时代，中共渐渐将特权经济利益向文化知识界输送，向全体干部军官阶层书送。创造了一个稳定而自觉的、三种精英相结合的官僚垄断资产阶级。但同时也造成了人数庞大的贫民工农阶级，和人数也十分庞大的赤贫无产阶级。
贫富的差距和阶级矛盾，是当代冲突的主要原因。在过去55年时间里，中国历史绕了一个大圈子，从平均富裕的梦想，又走回到了严重贫富差距、尖锐阶级矛盾的状况中。中国人又重新拿起了民主自由的理想。只是这一次比上一次更清醒一些，更坚定一些。社会基础也更加广泛。历史又走到重新选择的十字路口。每一个人都需要选择，都得决定他自己要走在哪一条道路上。如孙中山先生所说：民主大潮，浩浩荡荡，顺之者昌，逆之者亡。
有关相片连接：
1. 巴黎华侨文教中心第五次"《九评共产党》研讨会" 的主办人与主讲人：
http://weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2005/newsletters2005-9/Paris051023speakers-3.jpg
2. 研讨会" 的听众：
http://weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2005/newsletters2005-9/Paris051023audience-4.jpg
3. 研讨会" 现场：
http://weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2005/newsletters2005-9/Paris051023seminar-4.jpg
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