Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A185-W90
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A185-W90
Release Date: February 12, 2006
发布日：2006年2月12日
Topic: Forecast of Development in China in Year 2006 -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题：2006年中国发展方向 -- 魏京生
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
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Forecast of Development in China in Year 2006
-- by Wei Jingsheng
Previously, I focused on analyzing trends in China last year and some fundamental conflicts in Chinese society. My conclusion was that the distortion of the economic structure and the imbalance of development have aggravated social and political conflicts. The primarily class-based social conflicts have pushed Chinese society to the brink of collapse. The intensification of conflicts in China, as well as the reality of the political structure not being enough to resolve the conflicts, has motivated the Chinese Communist ruling faction, with Hu Jintao at the helm, to use a war against an outside region in an effort to resolve internal conflicts. To stir up international disputes and to actively prepare to launch a war against an outside region was the primary distinguishing feature of the foreign policy of Hu Jintao's faction last year.
Hu immediately changed the Jiang Zemin Era tactic of using intimidation of empty threat as a negotiating tactic. In the past two years, Hu Jintao's policy toward Taiwan has been to openly threaten to use force, along with drawing the Taiwan's divergent opposition party factions to his side. The first piece in the first move in their game of chess is for Hu to break the tradition and pass the "Anti-Secession Constitutional Law", turning empty threats into operations to be implemented and for the sake of setting a legal foundation for a possible surprise attack in the future. It also gives the dove faction in Taiwan a reason to oppose Taiwanese independence and to be close to the Mainland. The second piece in this move - having Lian Zhan and Song Chuyu visit the Mainland and to work together - they successfully disintegrated the mentality of resistance among the Taiwanese people, and caused public opinion to waver between surrendering and resisting. The Taiwanese people's desire to rely on the West to maintain their independence and sovereignty has declined greatly, and is now at the lowest point of the last half-century. This chess move had unexpected success.
Hu Jintao's second chess move in foreign relations was to re-open six-party talks on the North Korea nuclear issue. The purpose of the talks was to bring more attention to North Korea's nuclear blackmail and to increase its effects. To put it plainly, if your voice isn't loud, you can't scare people. The results of this chess move - scaring people - that followed was to expand the Sino-U.S. nuclear conflict, which was limited to the Taiwan Strait, to the entire Northeast Asia region, and to force North and South Korea and Japan to be part of the stakes. This would dampen America's determination to intervene in a war across Taiwan Strait. Even though Kim Jong-Il is an untrustworthy and outrageous hooligan, he has limited strength. Be it America or Japan, even alone either one has ample ability to deal with North Korea. But with a big or one and half big nations lurking in the background, no one dares to make a rash move. This is the true reason behind Kin Jong-Il's sudden rise in the world. China pulls Russia together to contend with Japan and America has made Kim Jong-Il even more foolhardy. This has forced the U.S. to give up the initiative in security matters regarding Northeast Asia and to take up the stance of negotiation and working together with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), putting the America in a disadvantageous position in all matters.
Considering that Japan's policy on China has, for the last several decades, traditionally been to keep a low profile, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao's train of thought has been to put more pressure on Japan, forcing it to soften and become a second South Korea. The disintegration of the alliance between Japan, America, and South Korea will keep America from being able to intervene in a war across Taiwan Strait. With victory in a war against Taiwan, China can establish hegemony in the West Pacific Ocean and even in the Indian Ocean, and America's power in this region will fade. Such a great achievement will increase Hu Jintao's prestige, thus giving him the ability to crush factional disputes in his party; it will make Hu Jintao into a new dictator and a Hu Jintao Era that can stand side by side with that of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Yet what caused Hu Jintao regrets is that after he stirred up conflicts with Taiwan, Japan's reaction wasn't as weak as he expected, and Wu Yi's lack of proper diplomatic etiquette, along with the wave of anti-Japanese sentiment in China, didn't have the effects in Japan that they expected it to have. The Japanese people expressed an out-of-character toughness and supported Koizumi's unprecedented tough attitude toward China. Through its war bill and approving the expansion of its navy and air force, Japan showed that it would play the important role of America's partner in Northeast Asia. A Japan that could only stutter when facing China has from now on become a part of history. Moreover, this is something completely forced out by China's Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing's erroneous diplomatic behavior. This is just like moving a stone onto your foot and breaking it.
The fourth most important part of Hu Jintao's new diplomatic thinking has been in operation for three years. It is his plan to have the European Union lift its arms embargo on China, and it has the support of French President Jacques Chirac and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. The purpose of this plan is to effectively divide America and the European Union, isolating America. In addition, if China faces a naval blockade, it can obtain goods from Europe through Eurasia. This plan started in the Mao Zedong Era, and actually was not suspended during the Deng Xiaoping Era. It's just that only until the Hu Jintao Era did China use a specific implementation strategy with lifting the E.U.'s arms embargo as the breakthrough point. Li Zhaoxing's assumptions were that with the lure of $50-$60 billion US dollars in aircraft and nuclear power contracts, France and Germany would actively work on it. With the tide of anti-American sentiment in Europe, lifting a prohibition that's not very practical would seem to be like shooting fish in a barrel for China.
Who would have thought that their boat would have capsized upon crossing such a small brook? When the CCP was still secretly lobbying Europe, some European politicians with consciences notified me in a timely manner. Immediately after, the overseas Chinese democracy movement and both European and American politicians promptly launched initiatives to combat the lobbying. They destroyed the plans of the mouthpieces of Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and French and German corporations. First they delayed the E.U.'s vote, then, with the help of the "Anti-Secession Law", put off the vote indefinitely. At the same time, it made people in countries all over Europe start paying attention to Hu Jintao's war scheme. In this diplomatic protest to protect peace, a portion of our friends from the overseas Chinese democracy movement and part of Falun Gong friends worked together, and were able to guide international politics. And the concrete actions of politicians in European countries and America to uphold justice played a decisive role. It seems like when Hu Jintao went to Europe last year he had already made a final evaluation, and had decided to abandon this sure-to-fail plan and to start implementing a new plan.
After running into walls in Japan and Europe, what will be the direction of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao's new war-based diplomacy thinking? What new tricks will they come up with? After looking back at the situation in China of the past year, everyone may be more focused on what situations will come in the future, so each person can plan his actions and achieve his goals. Below I will help my friends to analyze a little more some of the major trends to come.
On the economic side, the growth rate next year will definitely drop. For the past fifteen years, the two pillars of China's economic growth have been the drive of foreign trade and exports and foreign investments filling supply deficiencies. Looking at the situation last year, China didn't relax its restrictions on trade with Europe and America. According to Wen Jiabao's thought pattern, developed over decades as a national cadre, relaxing import restrictions is an action that will cause losses, and because of internal pressure, he finds it very difficult to do this as well. This it can be predicted that European and American barriers against Chinese products will become even more sever, and have no chance of being loosened. It's impossible to maintain a prosperous export situation by merely relying on the RenMinBi not rising. The entire economy will shrink back, thus triggering a chain reaction. Only if the RenMinBi rises is there hope to improve internal demands and to lighten the pressure from trade protectionism. Yet there's no chance that this will have an effect in the short run. Thus, the development of the Chinese economy in this year and the next year will be relatively difficult.
In terms of politics, since Hu Jintao's follows a hardliner way of thinking, suppression is still the primary means of governance. Facing irresolvable trends such as the intensification of resistance and the spread of the grassroots criminal underworld, suppression can only solve problems on the surface. In an environment where the ranks of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) cadres are concerned only with money, and since there is nothing for them to believe in, no one can forces the bureaucratic capitalist class to lessen their exploitation and mitigate social conflicts. Democratic governments can claim innocence since their power comes legally from the majority of the people. Even if a servant steals his master's money, what he can steal is still limited. When major incidents arise he still has to look after his master's interests. In an autocracy, it is different. The pillar of its power is the bureaucratic capitalist class, so how can it not look after its master's interests and instead look after the interests of the people? Thus one could predict that the political situation in the coming two years will be one of the ruling class further uniting and class struggles further intensifying. I estimate that Hu Jintao will have to temporarily give up his plan to overpower the Jiang Zemin faction and to establish his authority. Thus, the Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao system will become a cart drawn by three horses: Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and Zeng Qinghong, and internal struggles will lessen. If the internal struggles lessen, it will indicate that suppression of civil human rights activities and the criminal underworld will intensify. All sorts of belief groups will be treated as the Boxers or the White Lotus Society and face continuing persecution. The crisis from the large-scale turmoil that will result from this will be greater than that of the Jiang Zemin Era. As to this possibility, Hu Jintao can only deal with it by maintaining internal unity and avoiding splits in the ruling clique. But these are unreliable and temporary ways of maintaining these; it's impossible to fundamentally resolve the class oppositions that come from the gap between the rich and the poor.
Inferring things from the CCP traditional way of thinking, when the Party temporarily faces irresolvable internal difficulties, using wars against foreign powers and mass patriotism to numb the masses and establishing idols and authority are its essential methods to resolving the problems. This traditional mentality came from Mao Zedong, continued through Deng Xiaoping, and has been passed to Hu Jintao. Soon after Mao Zedong had established his regime, he fought a war America in Korea, and thus obtained Joseph Stalin's support, as well as established his highest level of power and prestige. Before this, his inner-Party authority was only relatively high, and he had yet to establish it over the entire society. Afterwards, after facing Three Years of hardships, Mao's prestige dropped rapidly, as the people felt unsettled. Mao, without reason, attacked his international ally -- India's Jawaharlal Nehru. During the Cultural Revolution, he couldn't reach his goals, and during the politically tumultuous 1969, he again, without rhyme or reason, started a small-scale regional war against the Soviet Union. Yet the war had a major impact internally, and he was able to, in the name of war, adjust his personnel, numb people's hearts, and tide over the unending Cultural Revolution crisis. In 1979, when Deng Xiaoping had just come to power, he attacked Vietnam, and quickly established his authority. You could call him a "good student of Chairman Mao." Hu Jintao, as a disciple of the Mao-Deng School, has praised himself as a determined Communist, would have learned the skill of using war to establish authority. It would be too easy to lure people with something so easy to do. This would be especially so if the people before Hu had prepared the conditions for this for many years, along with funds and technical assistance from Western corporations.
Even though Chinese government has faced setbacks in Europe, and Europe has become a dead piece in the chess match, if Chinese government plays its other moves well, it will still have hope. I estimate that in the Hu-Wen-Zeng diplomacy guided by the principle of preparing for war, they will make their moves around certain focus points. The two focus points will be the Taiwan-unification war and the North Korea nuclear talks. Hu is happy of using both carrot and stick in terms of a Taiwan-unification war. He plans to continue to expand the stakes of the war, and by collaborating with forces from both inside and outside Taiwan, lessen the resources that would be depleted in attacking Taiwan, thus maintaining strength to deal with America. In their Taiwan Straits war plans, America is the biggest worry. If they can enable Pan Blue in Taiwan to gain power, then Pan Green will be forced to change its anti-Communist stance, and both sides will fight to kiss up to the Mainland. This would be the most ideal state, especially if Taiwan gives up without a fight, leaving America helpless to act. The second good move would be to have the North Korea talks get more and more deadlocked, and North Korea's internal stability would be beneficial for setting up a second battlefield during the Taiwan Strait war. Negotiations are an effective means to prevent America from suddenly attacking Kim Jong-Il and taking him out of power.
If America succeeds, the right to take the initiative in the war would transfer over to them; this would increase their persuasion strength. This is something that Hu must prevent. Thus I expect the third move of the chess is to for Hu to transfer the business order from Europe to America, in an effort to strength the lobby capacity in America. I expect America's big corporations and the politicians who support them to receive a fortune, as the price they could pay is initiative in the Asia-Pacific region. But this is a burden the next American government will have to bear; the current one won't necessarily pay attention. The fourth move would to be to renew China's Mao Zedong Era policies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In addition to creating problems in America's backyard, before fighting the war and during wartime, China would try her best to control oil supply in the West, fundamentally defeating America and Europe. Bush's war in Iraq has made China's leaders truly come to understand the importance of oil, as disrupting the oil supply is draining the lifeblood of Western society. I estimate that in the next few years, fighting for control of oil will gradually become the key project of China's foreign policy and foreign economic activities. The prologue to the struggle for supremacy is the struggle for oil. Our friends, you can use this to observe your own affairs so as to not miss this golden opportunity.
(Written on January 20, 2006. Partially broadcasted by Radio Free Asia. The Wei Jingsheng Foundation is responsible for the accuracy of this version of the English translation.)
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中文版
Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A185-W90
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A185-W90
Release Date: February 12, 2006
发布日：2006年2月12日
Topic: Forecast of Development in China in Year 2006 -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题：2006年中国发展方向 -- 魏京生
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2006/report2006-02/WeiJS060212ChinaForecastA185-W90.htm
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2006年中国发展方向
-- 魏京生
不久前我着重为大家分析了去年国内形势的走向，和国内社会的一些基本矛盾。结论是，经济结构的畸形和发展不平衡，加剧了社会和政治矛盾。以阶级矛盾为主的社会矛盾，使中国社会处于崩溃的边缘。这种国内矛盾尖锐化，以及政治结构不足以解决矛盾的现实，迫使胡锦涛为首的中共统治集团产生了以对外战争缓解国内矛盾的动机。挑起国际争端和积极准备对外战争，是去年一年胡锦涛集团对外政策的主要特色。
一改江泽民时代的虚声恫吓辅之以谈判的作法，过去两年来胡锦涛的对台政策转变为公然武力威胁，辅之以拉拢反对党分化台湾政治团结。这一步棋的第一个棋子就是破例通过了《反分裂国家法》，使虚声恫吓变化为实施操作，为将来可能发生的突然袭击奠定了法律基础。同时也为台湾内部的鸽派提供了反台独和亲大陆的理由。和第二个棋子--连战宋楚瑜访问大陆相配合，他成功地瓦解了台湾岛内民众的抵抗意识，使岛内舆论徘徊在投降还是抵抗之间。台湾人依靠西方保持独立主权的意愿大大下降，降到半个世纪以来的最低点。这一步棋取得了意料之外的成功。
胡温集团对外政策的第二步棋，是重开朝核问题的六方会谈。会谈的作用是提高北朝鲜核讹诈的被关注度，加大讹诈效果。用大白话说就是声音不大吓不着人。吓人这一步棋的后续效果，就是把局限于台湾海峡的中美核战之争，扩大到整个东北亚，把南北朝鲜和日本，都押在赌注之中，挫伤美国干预台海战争的决心。金正日虽然是言而无信、胡作非为的流氓，但其实力有限。无论美国还是日本，单独收拾北朝鲜都是绰绰有余的。但背后加上一个或一个半大国的背景，谁也不敢轻易动手了。这就是金正日突然抖起来的真正原因。中国拉俄罗斯与日美抗衡，使金正日更加胆大妄为。这就迫使美国不得不放弃在东北亚安全事务上的主导权，改为与中共谈判合作的姿态，处处落于下风。
按照日本几十年来对华政策低姿态的传统，胡温的外交思路是：再加大一些压力，日本也将软化为第二个韩国。日美韩联盟的瓦解，将保证美国无力干预台海战争。而台海战争的胜利，将树立中国在西太平洋乃至印度洋地区的霸权，美国的势力将从此地区后退。如此伟大的成就将使胡锦涛的威信大增，从而有能力扫平党内不同派系之争，使胡锦涛成为新的独裁者，开创一个与毛泽东、邓小平并列的胡锦涛时代。令胡锦涛遗憾的是，挑起台海之争后，日本的反应并不如预期那样软弱，吴仪的外交失礼和反日浪潮也并没有收到往日那样的效果。日本民间一反常态的强硬，支持日本小泉政府采取从未有过的对华强硬态度。以通过战争法案和批准扩充海、空军为标志，日本将在东北亚扮演美国合伙人的重要角色。一个只会对中国"哈伊哈伊"的日本，从此成为了历史。而这完全是李外长错误的外交行为逼出来的。这就叫搬起石头砸了自己的脚。
胡锦涛的外交新思维的第四个重头戏，就是操作了将近三年，并得到法国总统希拉克和德国总理施罗德全力支持的取消欧盟对华军售禁令的计划。这一计划预期要达到的目标，是有效分裂欧美联盟，孤立美国。并在可能遭受海上封锁时，通过"欧亚大陆桥"从欧洲获得物资供应。这一计划开始于毛泽东时代，邓小平时代也并没有中断。只是到了胡锦涛时代，才设计出解除欧盟对华军售禁令为突破点的具体实施策略。李外长的设想是，在５００到６００亿美元飞机和核电项目的诱使下，法德两国将积极运作。在欧洲反美浪潮的推动下，解除已无多大实用价值的禁令，应该是有把握的囊中之物。
谁曾想，却在这条看上去最容易过的小河沟里翻了船。还在中共秘密游说的阶段，欧洲有良心的政治家们就及时通知了我。紧接着海外民运与欧美各国政治家们及时展开了反游说工作。破坏了胡温与法德大企业代言人的计划。首先是拖延了欧盟的表决，继而在《反分裂法》的协助下，将此表决无限期拖延。同时使欧洲各国人民开始注意胡锦涛的战争阴谋。在这场维护和平的外交对抗中，海外民运和法轮功的部分朋友携手合作，起到了引导国际政治的作用。而欧美各国主持正义的政治家们的实际操作，起到了决定性的作用。看来胡锦涛去年访问欧洲时已作出了最后评估，放弃了这个注定要失败的计划，开始执行新的计划。
在日本和欧洲碰了壁之后，胡温的以战争为目标的外交新思维会有什么走向？也许又玩出什么新花招？今年将会是怎样的形势，以便谋划各自的行动，达到各自的目标。下面我就大的趋势帮朋友们稍加分析。
经济方面，明年的增长率肯定会下降。十五年来，中国经济增长的两大支柱，是外贸出口的带动和外国投资补缺。从去年的形势看，中国并没有对欧美的贸易给予放宽。按照温家宝几十年国家干部的思维方式，放宽进口是吃亏的行为，迫于内部压力他也很难这样做。因此可以预计，今年欧美各国对中国商品的壁垒将更加森严，没有希望放宽。仅仅靠人民币不升值，已无法维持出口旺势。整个经济将进入退缩，并引起连锁反应。只有人民币升值，才可望提高内需，减轻贸易保护主义的压力。但这也不可能在短期内发生作用。因此，今明两年的中国经济发展将会比较困难。
政治方面，由于胡锦涛的强硬派思维方式，镇压将仍然是主要施政手段。面对无法解决的反抗尖锐化和基层黑社会化的趋势，镇压只能是扬汤止沸。以中共干部队伍的向钱看风气，和信仰支柱的虚无化倾向，没有人能迫使官僚资产阶级减轻剥削，缓和社会矛盾。民主政府可以抹开面子，因为他们政权的合法性来自大多数民众。即使是恶仆偷主人的钱，偷的也是有限的。大事上明事上他还不得不照顾主人的利益。专制就不同了。他的支柱是官僚资产阶级，怎么可能不照顾主子的利益而照顾百姓的利益呢？因此可以预计，今明两年的政治趋势，是统治阶级的进一步团结和阶级斗争的进一步激化。估计胡锦涛必须暂时放弃压倒江派树立权威的想法，将胡温体制转变为胡温曾三架马车制，以减轻内斗。内斗的减轻，预示着针对民间维权和黑社会的镇压将进一步加强。各种信仰团体也将被当作义和团、白莲教而受到持续的迫害。引发大规模动乱的危险将比江泽民时代提高。对于这种可能性，胡锦涛只能以维持内部团结，避免统治集团分裂来应付。而这些都是不太可靠的、暂时的维持方法，不能从根本上解决贫富差距造成的阶级对抗。
以中共的传统思维来推论，在暂时遭遇无法解决的内部困难的时候，利用对外战争和爱国主义热潮来麻痹民众、树立偶像和权威，是解决问题的根本方法。这传统来自于毛泽东，经邓小平隔代传给了胡锦涛。毛泽东在刚刚建立政权时，就在朝鲜和美国打了一仗，换来斯大林的援助，并树立了他的最高权威。在这之前他的权威在党内也只是相对的，在全社会可以说尚未确立。之后，在遭遇三年困难之后，毛的威信急剧下降，时局人心不稳。毛就无缘无故地打了他的国际盟友，印度的尼赫鲁。在文革没能达到他的理想、政局动荡的1969年，他又莫名其妙地对比他强大的苏联发动了一场小规模局部战争，但内部动作很大，以战争的名义调整了人事，麻痹了人心，渡过了无法结束的文革难关。 1979年邓小平一上台就打了越南，迅速树立了权威，可以说是"毛主席的好学生"。胡锦涛作为毛邓的衣钵传人，又自诩为坚定的共产党人，不可能没学到以战立威的绝招。这么容易的事，太诱惑人了。何况有前人准备了多年的条件，以及西方大企业的资金技术援助。
虽然在欧洲遇到了挫折，欧洲这一个角已经成为死棋，但其它的棋如果走好了，希望仍然存在。估计以准备战争为指导的胡温曾外交，在明年将重点走以下几招。两个重点是对台统战和朝核会谈。对台统战软硬兼施是胡的得意之笔，今明两年将继续扩大战果，达到里应外合减少攻台消耗，以便保存实力对付美国。在台海战争计划中，美国始终是最大的心病。若能使蓝营执政，将迫使绿营改变反共立场，争相拍大陆马屁，这是最理想的状态，甚至有可能兵不血刃，让美国无以下手。第二步好棋是朝核会谈越谈越僵，北朝鲜内部的稳定有利于台海开战时开辟第二战场。谈判是防止美国突袭搞掉金正日的有效措施。如美国成功，战争的主动权便会转移到美国手中。这是胡必须防止发生的事。因此第三步棋，就是把原打算用于欧洲的订单转交给美国，加强在美游说力量。估计美国的大企业和他们支持的政客们会发一笔大财，代价是损失掉在亚太地区的主导权。但这可能要后任政府承担责任，现任政府不一定在意。第四就是恢复毛泽东时代的亚非拉政策。除了给美国的后院制造麻烦之外，在战前和战时力争控制西方的石油等资源供应，从根本上打垮美国和欧洲。布什的伊拉克战争，使中国领导人真正认识到石油的重要性，扰乱石油供应就是捏住了西方社会的命根子。估计在今后几年内，争夺石油控制权将逐渐成为中国外交和对外经济活动的重头戏。所谓争霸的前戏就是争石油。各位朋友们可以据此观察自己的事务，以免错失了良机。
（写于2006年1月20日）
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