Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A195-W96
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A195-W96
Release Date: April 8, 2006
发布日：2006年4月8日
Topic: Taiwan President Chen Shui-Bian's Farce in "Abolishing" and "Ceasing" the Function of' the Taiwan Unification Council" -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题：台湾总统陈水扁的“废统”和“终统”闹剧 -- 魏京生
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
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Taiwan President Chen Shui-Bian's Farce in "Abolishing" and "Ceasing" the Function of' the Taiwan Unification Council"
-- by Wei Jingsheng
Recently, one of the major issues that the international community has been most focused on is the game of semantics Taiwan President Chen Shui-Bian has been playing regarding moving from "abolishing" the Taiwan Unification Council to having it "cease to function." It made the international community break out in a cold sweat and made the American government strike an unusual tone in exerting pressure on Chen. In the end, Chen had to retreat back to his original stated position of having the Council "cease to function" and had to formally recall his words on "abolishing the National Unification Council and the Guidelines for National Unification." Even now this matter hasn't ended, and the waves stirred up by this incident have yet to die down, and continue to ferment under the surface.
Before this happened, no one paid attention to the Guidelines for National Unification and the National Unification Council, and some people had no idea what it was at all. The Guidelines for National Unification were formed around the KMT (Nationalist Party) stopped using martial law to suppress rebellion and when they were worried about losing their last position on a unified China. They were also worried that, due to political realities, they would be forced into moving towards legal Taiwan independence. It is a document of guidelines passed in the Lee Teng-Hui Era that guide the Republic of China (ROC) government. It's a national program of action that matches with the current ROC constitution's principles on a one China. From the Lee Teng-Hui Era to today's Democratic Progressive Party government, those in charge have been from parties or factions that advocate Taiwan independence. Thus, the Guidelines for National Unification and the National Unification Council, which was to promote and monitor unification, have already ceased to function. The council's annual expenses are less than $100 US, which amounts to just the expenses for storing documents in filing cabinets. The words they say now about the council "ceasing to function" or "temporarily stopping to function" is just useless chatter. In reality, from the beginning when the law was passed it had ceased functioning, and was just there to put up a front. It didn't bring about any actions, and no one paid it any heed.
It was exactly under this circumstance that a not-so-forthright Taiwanese "urgent independence faction" - called the political fundamentalist faction by some - was given an excellent stage prop to use. They launched a Don Quijote- style attack against these for-show-only Guidelines on National Unification in what seemed like a joke. But why did it end up not being a joke? Why did it create such an uproar? This is the interesting political aspect of it. It's like that old saying: In the military, no words are spoken in jest. It spoke a simple truth: even if politicians joke, their words have underlying meanings, not counting, of course, what is said at home after drinks.
Let's take an example. Ever since the ROC established a modern, national system of justice, the "Imperial Jade Seal" that was passed down between emperors during Qing Dynasty to signify a change in rule is now but an antique, a plaything. Yet people still don't dare to treat it just as a plaything. This is because if it were to fall in the hands of fundamentalists that wish to stir up a movement to bring back an autocratic monarchy, and if these fundamentalists had a certain amount of influence, it wouldn't just be kidding around. Perhaps they would cook up some incident and maybe there really would be a new emperor. In troubled times, anything can occur. These Guidelines are that "Imperial Jade Seal" and a constant worry in the hearts of the Taiwan independence faction. Therefore, tap-dancing around "abolishing" the council and guidelines isn't just a Don Quijote-like tactic; the move can win a lot of support and can excite and stimulate more people. It might even cause even more serious incidents. Thus, they played up this "abolishment" with vigor, alarming the international political community.
Chen Shui-Bian's approaches were different during the play and thus correctly proved the predictions of many discerning individuals; they know that he had already designed a path of retreat. This is because what he abolished is something already ineffective, but that remains effective in law. If the outside world's reaction wasn't too strong, Chen could pretend to be a tough guy and help remove a hidden danger in the way of Taiwanese independence. He could make a big stride towards Taiwanese independence, take credit to look like a great hero, and increase his trustworthiness. He could extricate himself from his current predicament, in which he faces attacks from the urgent independence faction within his own party. It might even be as some have predicted in which Chen sits in the second "Taiwanese independence godfather" armchair. It was said that the first chair would undoubtedly belong to Lee Teng-Hui. Such political positions and the respect and reputation that come along with them is what many politicians and scholars seek. Abolishing the council and guidelines might earn Chen this kind of fame in his life and posthumously as well.
I imagine that Chen and his advisors predicted that the move to abolish the council and guidelines would bring about a fairly strong opposition. The first to oppose it would be Beijing, but Taiwan independence folks aren't afraid of Beijing's reaction. This is because they firmly believe that America will absolutely protect Taiwan's safety; this is the main pillar of the theory for Taiwan's independence. Since they are so absolute with it, sometimes they have no choice but to listen to Americans' orders. The second to oppose it is, of course, the American government. It sounds like they weren't too stern, and the wording they used was still that used to give advice to a friend. But the implications behind the words were extremely serious. Thus, Chen Shui-Bian immediately shown off his second scheme and changed the "abolish" wording to "cease to function." The English wording was vague, and he repeatedly played around with the words, to the point that the American spokesman got annoyed, and said to a reporter, "I don't want to always have to explain the Taiwanese wording of yesterday." They really went overboard in their game.
So this incident that looks like a joke but, in reality, is very serious. Moreover, it's something that relates to our Chinese people. In order to improve his approval rating, Chen wants to start a movement to abolish national constitutional guidelines formulated in the Lee Teng-Hui Era that are aimed at having the Chinese nation eventually unite. These Guidelines on National Unification and the "National Unification Council," have been shelved for years, but they haven't been formally abolished. Yet the Taiwanese independence political faction always feels uncomfortable about these and worries that they could be a hidden danger. Thus, abolishing them isn't a joke, and is a major step towards legal Taiwanese independence. As a result of abolishing the Council and the Guidelines, they immediately faced strong opposition from Mainland China, America, Europe, and other governments. Chen had no choice but to revert to having the Council and Guidelines "cease to function" and to use word games to get through the ordeal.
The Mainland Chinese government's strong reaction to the move is quite easy to understand. Regardless if it's really an issue or not, as long as Taiwan uses Taiwanese independence wording, Beijing will inevitably react. This has become common practice, so no one thinks anything of it when they hear it. Yet America and Europe's strong reactions should bring about more doubts. Why is this? I'd like to talk with all of you about my views for your reference.
There were two sides to what was said. One side is that the Taiwanese independence movement having the need to be able to, at any time, take measures to move closer to legal Taiwanese independence. The other side is that Mainland China's military has been rapidly developing in the past few years, and is indeed acting in a manner that assumes that there will inevitably be a war in the Taiwan strait, a war between China and Japan, and a war between China and America. It's not just that they have more and more ample military preparations; they've also stirred up pro-war emotions to a level closer and closer to the desired level. The danger of war between the Taiwan Strait is truly nearing us. Most estimates posit that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), due to its internal instability and intensifying social conflicts, has a very strong motivation to launch a war in order to improve its governing authoritativeness. Moreover, the CCP does have a historical tradition of using war for such ends. The only reason it hasn't launched a war against Taiwan or South Korea is the existence of the United States. This is also the true reason why Chen dares to take risks.
But the "American reason" is not a fixed factor. China and America are coming to understand one another more and more, and both are quite clear on the other side's military strength, political bottom lines, economic interests, and other such policy-determining factors. Under most circumstances, this joint knowledge is a common way in which to avoid war, but it has provided the CCP with opportunities. The Sino-U.S. situation is basically as such: regardless of how much the CCP brags about its modern equipped military weapons, under normal circumstances only its ground force is a match for its American counterparts, as neither its navy nor its air force can compete with the American forces. Thus, under normal circumstances the CCP won't launch a war in the Taiwan straits and bring about its own failure.
Moreover, with no proper reason, launch a war and bring about inevitable isolation from the international community. These are unfavorable factors for the CCP. But in the last few years, Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has been constantly been breaking its bottom line of Taiwanese independence and has made everyone nervous. Gradually, more and more people view them as troublemakers. That is, the position of isolation is gradually shifting to Taiwan, and international public opinion is becoming less and less favorable to Taiwan.
From a military perspective, America's current primary objective is resolving problems in the Middle East. The oil there is America's economy and lifeblood. Of course it's more important to them than Taiwan's independence. Thus, America's basic policy towards East Asian affairs has been to maintain the status quo. Since maintaining the status quo is respecting reality, it is a very beneficial policy to East Asian nations. The only group that has the motivation to damage the status quo is the CCP. But, under both political pressure and pressure from international public opinion, the CCP has always exercised restraint. The only one that would suffer losses from damaging the status quo is Taiwan. This is because regardless of the outcome of a war, Taiwan's economic prosperity and actual position of independence would never return.
Then why would Taiwan come out and damage the status quo? No one can understand it and thinks they're crazy. Moreover, not only does America have to convince China to abandon its war plans, it also has to convince this immature little brother not to make meaningless provocations at such an inopportune moment. Their worry is not a disrespect towards the Taiwanese president, but a sense of the true danger of Chen's policy of dragging America into the water. Thus, the Americans stressed on many occasions that the Taiwan Relations Act does not stipulate that America must be dragged into the water and thus warned Chen not to play with fire.
If the moment were different, perhaps America would not worry about losing control of the situation in East Asia. But since most of the American military is held up in the Middle East, if the CCP invades Taiwan, it forces the Japanese and U.S. allied forces to counterattack on Taiwan's behalf. It could be that America lacks the military strength to do this. This could damage the stability of the entire Asia-Pacific region and could bring about an even larger-scale era of war. From this perspective, Chen should indeed cease his risky behavior.
(Written in March, 2006. Partially broadcasted by Radio Free Asia. The Wei Jingsheng Foundation is responsible for the accuracy of this version of the English translation.)
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中文版
Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A195-W96
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A195-W96
Release Date: April 8, 2006
发布日：2006年4月8日
Topic: Taiwan President Chen Shui-Bian's Farce in "Abolishing" and "Ceasing" the Function of' the Taiwan Unification Council" -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题：台湾总统陈水扁的“废统”和“终统”闹剧 -- 魏京生
Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2006/report2006-04/WeiJS060408TaiwanA195-W96.htm
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《台湾总统陈水扁的"废统"和"终统"闹剧》
-- 魏京生
最近国际社会最关注的大事之一，是台湾的陈水扁总统玩了一次从"废统"到"终统"的文字游戏。还真让国际社会出了一把冷汗，弄得美国政府以不同寻常的口气对陈水扁施压。最终，陈水扁退回到了他们说的"终止使用"的原始状态，而且正式收回了关于"废除国统会和国统纲领"的说法。现在事情还没有完，由此而引起的波澜到现在也没有平静下来。还在继续发酵。
没发生这件事之前，没有人关心"国统纲领和国统会"。甚至很多朋友根本不知道这是个什么东西。国统纲领的全名叫"国家统一纲领"。是在台湾执政的中国国民党停止使用"戡乱时期戒严法"的前后，耽心失去最终统一中国的立场；担心由于现实所迫走向"法理台独"，而在李登辉时代通过的一份指导中华民国政府的纲领性文件。是与现行的中华民国宪法的大中国性质相吻合的国家行动纲领。由于从李登辉时期到现在的民进党政府，都是主张台独的党和派别主政，所以，"国统纲领"和起促进作用，监督作用的"国统会"早已停止作用。它每年的开支不到100美元，仅仅不过是放在文件柜里的保管费而已。现在说什么"终止使用"或"暂时停止使用"都不过是在说废话。它实际上从通过的时候开始，就已经停止使用了，不过是装装门面的摆设而已。并没有引起任何行为，也就没人关心它了。
恰恰是这种特别的状况，给台湾的一批不那么理直气壮的"急独派"，也就是俗称的基本教义派，提供了一个巧妙的道具。向这个已经成为木偶的"国统纲领"发起一场唐吉珂德似的攻击，看起来像一场笑话。但为什么竟然不是笑话？为什么竟然引起一场轩然大波呢？这就是政治有趣的一面了。就像古语所说的那样：军中无戏言。它说出了一个朴素的真理；政治家们哪怕是说笑话，也藏有某种玄机。当然，在家里喝酒说的不算。
打个比方说吧。由于民国以后的现代国家法统的建立，清朝的所谓"传国玉玺"如今也就是个古董，是个玩物而已。但大家还是不敢拿它当作仅仅是个玩物。因为如果落到某个煽动恢复帝制的教主手里，再假如这个教主又有了一定的势力，就不是闹着玩儿的了。就会搞出点儿事端来，甚至可能又出现个新皇帝也说不定。乱世出什么都有可能。这个"国统纲领"就是这么一块"传国玉玺"，所以也就是台湾独派的一块不大不小的心病。所以 ，玩弄"废统"的把戏就不是唐吉珂德，就会获得很多人的拥护，就会让更多人心情激动乃至亢奋。甚至会引发更严重的事端。所以这一轮"废统"闹得轰轰烈烈，惊动了全球的政治关注。
陈水扁的做法前后不一，恰好证实了许多明眼人的估计；知道他早就设计好了退路。因为他废除的是一个早就无效但在法律上仍然有效的东西。如果没有外界太强的反应，他就可以假充硬汉，帮台独清除一个隐患。能为走向台独迈出一大步，居功至伟，信用大增。摆脱他目前所处的受到党内急独派抨击的困境。甚至可能像一些朋友估计的那样，坐上"台独教父"的第二把交椅。第一把据说李登辉已经稳坐无疑了。类似的地位和受人尊敬的名誉，往往是政治家和学者们追求的目标。"废统"有可能给陈水扁也赢得这样的生前身后名
我估计陈水扁和他的参谋们已估计到了，"废统"的做法可能会遭到比较强烈的反对。第一个反对的是北京，但台独们不怕北京的反应。因为他们深信美国绝对会保护台湾的安全，这是台独理论的主要支柱。因为太绝对了，所以他们有时也敢不听美国人的指挥。第二个反对的当然是美国政府，听起来不那么严重，措辞基本上还是劝告朋友的方式。但它的实质含义就非常严重了。所以陈水扁立即抛出它的第二方案，把"废统"的说法改为"终止使用"。所用的英文词汇又含糊不清，反复玩弄了很长时间的文字游戏。弄得美国的发言人也烦了，对着记者说："我不想总跟着台湾人前一天的说法作解释"。这场戏的确也玩得太过分了。
这是一件看似搞笑，但实际很严重的事件。而且是和咱们中国人有关的事件。这"废统"和"终统"的闹剧是陈水扁为了挽回支持度下降的趋势，要发起的一场运动 -- 废除李登辉时代制定的，旨在最终达到国家统一的，准宪法式的国家行动纲领。这个叫做"国统纲领"的文件和旨在推动纲领的"国统会"早已被搁置多年，但没有正式废除。台独政治派别就总会感觉不舒服，感觉到这是个隐患。所以废除它就不是玩笑，而是向"法理台独"迈出的一大步。结果立即遭受到大陆，美国和欧洲等各国的强烈反对。他只好退回到"终止使用"并玩文字游戏蒙混过关。
中国大陆的政府反应强烈，很容易理解。无论有事没事，只要台湾有台独言论，北京就必然会有回应。这是惯例，大家都听得没感觉了。但是美国和欧洲这么强烈的反应，应该引起很多人的疑虑。这到底是为什么呢？我现在和大家谈谈我的看法，供大家参考。
话分两头。一头是刚才讲过的台独有这个需要，随时都可能采取一步步的"法理台独"的步骤。另一头就是大陆最近几年军力发展迅速，确实摆出了"台海必有一战"，"中日必有一战"，"中美必有一战"的架势。不但是军事准备越来越充分，就是情绪煽动也越来越到位。台海战争的危险，离我们大家真的是越来越近了。一般估计认为，中共由于其内部的不稳定和社会矛盾的尖锐化，有很强的动机发动一场战争来提高它的执政权威性。而且中共有这样的历史传统。没有发动对台湾和韩国的战争的唯一原因，是美国的存在。这也是陈水扁敢于冒险的真正原因。
但是，这个所谓的"美国原因"并不是一个固定存在的因素。中美双方的互相了解越来越多，对于双方的军事实力，政治底线，经济利益等等影响决策的底牌，都摸得很清楚。这在大多数情况下是避免战争的常规，但也给中共寻找机会提供了方便。中美之间基本上是这样一种情况：不管中共的吹鼓手如何为他们的新式武器自豪，但在正常情况下只有陆军可以是美军的对手。海空军都不是美军的对手。因此在正常的形势下，中共不会发动台海战争自取其败。
何况，没有正当理由的情况下，发动战争的一方肯定会受到国际社会的孤立。这对中共是不利因素。但是最近几年来，台湾的民进党政府不断突破台独的底线，让大家神经紧张一下。逐渐被越来越多的人认为是"麻烦制造者"。也就是说，孤立的地位渐渐地转移到了台湾一方。国际舆论对台湾越来越不利。
从军事角度看，美国当前首要的目标是解决中东的问题。那里的石油是美国的经济，生活命脉。当然要比你台湾的独立更重要。因此美国对东亚事务的基本策略，就是维持现状。维持现状既是尊重现实，对东亚各国也是十分有利的策略。唯一有动机破坏现状的，应该是中共。但在国际舆论和政治压力下，中共一直保持着克制。唯一在破坏现状后会吃大亏的，就是台湾。因为无论战争的结果如何，台湾的经济繁荣和事实上的独立地位都将不复存在。
为什么恰恰是台湾出来破坏现状呢？大家都不能理解，都认为他们疯了。而美国不仅要说服中国放弃战争计划，还要来说服这个不懂事的小兄弟，不要在不恰当的时机作无意义的挑衅。这样的担心不是对台湾总统的不尊重，而是对陈水扁"拖美国下水"的策略感觉到了真正的危险。所以美方多次强调，《与台湾关系法》并没有规定美国必须被拖下水，以此来警告陈水扁不要玩火。
如果换一个时机，美国也许不会担心控制不住东亚的局势。但在美军的大部分可能被牵制在中东的情况下，如果中共进攻台湾，并迫使美日联军反攻台湾。可能是美军力所不能及的。这就可能造成整个亚太地区的稳定被破坏，也有可能进入一个更大范围的战争年代。从这个角度看，陈水扁的确应该停止他的冒险行为。
（写于2006年3月，部分内容在自由亚洲电台播出。）
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