Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue Number: A207-W102
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A207-W102
Release Date: May 21, 2006
发布日：2006年5月21日
Topic: The Dark Side of China's Economic Development to the World - Economically, Security and Ecology (by Ciping Huang, original article in German was published on May 9, 2006, at Handelsblatt, the biggest business newspaper in Germany)
标题：中国经济的黑暗面，及其对国际安全与世界生态的影响 -- 黄慈萍（本文原文为德文，2006年5月9日发表于德国最大的商界报纸Handelsblatt上）
Original Language Version: English (Chinese version at the end)
此号以英文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
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The Dark Side of China's Economic Development to the World
- Economically, Security and Ecology
By Ciping HUANG
The economic reforms in China over the last two decades have heralded a new era of changes and development, stemming in no small part from the input of capital from the West. Low labor costs, few regulations and inexpensive natural resources were stimuli for the rapid growth, and increasing imbalance (belied by the persistently rosy macroeconomic data), of its manufacturing sector. Chinese made products have flooded the international market, with severe consequences, both to China's economy and society, as well as to stable international development and diplomacy. Now is the time for economic and business circles of the West to recognize the dark side of China's economic development: that, continuing along its present course, there are profound risks and ramifications, not just for Chinese, but also for the planet.
The growth of manufacturing in China has forcefully altered the economies of countless other countries, including those that have a long tradition of industrial ingenuity. In the first place, the world's unskilled and semi-skilled laborers are finding it increasingly difficult to remain competitive at subsistence wages. In addition, the money diverted from Western into Chinese manufacturing, along with the rampant spending on imported, Chinese-made goods, has resulted in lay-offs, unemployment and increased popular dependence on government handouts. The final and most glaring effect is the dwindling of Western goods production, and the resulting loss of both income and tax revenue.
These issues are of paramount concern to industrialized economies, but it is Chinese oppression of labor that remains the continuous threat to the global market. Workers are often forced into 12-16 hour workdays, 7 days a week, and wages are meager (and stagnant compared to the growth of the economy) if paid at all. Factories are toxic and unsafe, leading to ever-increasing rates of work-related accident and death (coalmine disasters took the lives of nearly 5500 Chinese in 2005). Implementing just some of the standards familiar to industrialized nations, such as worker safety, social security and negotiated or minimum wages, would go a long way toward lightening the burden on both the Chinese worker and the international manufacturing economy. Tragically, if Western industrial economies such as Germany wish to continue to be competitive, either China will have to elevate the status of its workers or else those of the West will continue to be in jeopardy.
It is incongruous, in a way, that the Marxist diagnosis of bourgeois capitalism would so perfectly fit the arbitrary hierarchy, increased income disparity and corruption that plague a country so resolute in its ideology of Marxism. More investment without political reform can only intensify these traits, leading to the possibility of catastrophic social upheaval. Recent statistics, in fact, support this ominous trend: the national police announced in January that protests and "public order disturbances" in 2005 rose 6.6 percent from the year before-to 87,000-and that those that "interfered with government functions" rose by 19 percent. Protesters have cited many grievances, including lay-offs, corruption, pollution and unpaid wages, but without an avenue of peaceful negotiation, such as independent workers' unions, strikes and protests continue to be a major risk in the stability of the nation.
Income disparity continues to be a primary source of social unrest, both in China's cities and in the overwhelmingly poor countryside. The gap between rich and poor has magnified exponentially, and the migration of hundreds of millions of peasants to the cities has intensified that conflict. Among the migrants are Mafias, forced by poverty into organized crime, swindling, drug- and even human trafficking, contributing to an already over-burdened urban landscape. This, combined with the corruption ingrained in the local and regional political structure and police force, has made China the least stable society in the world.
Former Chancellor Schroeder had made it a habit to over-look problems with the regime, but present Chancellor Merkel seems to have a more skeptical and even-handed approach. In her first official state visit with the Bush administration, she decried China as a country who doesn't "abide by any rule." That is, the political powers of China have resisted efforts by other governments to trade and manufacture according to free market economy practices, and to curtail corruption and abuse of autocratic rule. Even China's public assurances of change-for admission to the World Trade Organization-are shrouded in doublespeak and unmet promises.
Lack of respect for intellectual property rights and a staggering copyright piracy rate of 90% have garnered ire from innovators in the international community, who are now basically excluded from China's huge consumer market. Equally terrifying to Western industrialists is the possibility that production technology can be stolen, resulting in cheaper knock-offs of a product inundating the market.
Behind these revelations is the sobering reality that the rule of law has proven severely lacking in Chinese politics. In its place is a system in which corruption and bribes are ubiquitous, and the judiciary, in so far as it exists, is too heavily controlled by the Communist Party regime to be an object of recourse.
The absence of rule of law has several negative consequences to investment in the Chinese economy. First is lowered efficiency. The corruption and bribes that plague the system mean that more foreign money lines the pockets of officials than is directed toward production. One example of where this is most prevalent is in real estate. Resettlement costs, supposedly to persons already living on the site, can be hugely inflated, with most of the money going to well-connected brokers and powerful, wealthy resettlement officials. One of the primary reasons for protest among the poor in China is the lack of reparations given to those resettled for factories, office buildings and shopping malls, etc.
The second risk in China stemming from the absence of rule of law is that, despite economic liberalization, property can still be seized by the state at any time. As recently as January, the government sentenced an investor to prison for protesting the local government's take-over of his increasingly profitable oil fields. Increasingly violent clashes between government forces and Chinese people stem from this fundamental lack of protection for private property.
Coupled with these is the unreliability of China's financial sector. Its banks, over-burdened by bad debt and non-performing loans (as a result of state control over lending practices) are further troubled by corruption. Last year three of China's banks were caught in bribery, loan fraud and embezzlement scandals, but those were just the most publicized of a system fraught with crises. Part of the problem in China's banks is that they must pick up the slack of a poorly constructed and state-controlled stock market, which has lost half its value over 5 years, even while the economy continues to steam-roll.
Political oppression from the authoritarian government affects more than just human rights, the shooting of protesters and unaccountable leaders. Communication necessary for public health (such as the SARS cover-up), social stability and government transparency are severely limited. Journalists are given a very short rein on the mainland, and it is even more difficult for foreign journalists to find out what is really going on. As a result, the flow of information that might be relative to an investment, economic status or even human lives can be hindered.
More than ever, foreign businesses are forced to compromise their integrity by doing business with the communist regime. One glaring recent example is the case of American Internet giant Yahoo!, which gave in to government demands for information leading to reporter Shi Tao's private email account and the IP address of his computer. He was later convicted of divulging state secrets and sentenced to 10 years in prison. The "secrets" were the trivial and obvious revelation that the 15th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre could incite protests. Unfortunately, other big businesses includes Google are following suit. Yet, the Western governments is so overwhelmed by the lobbying effort from these businesses that they have not come to the full realization of the risk and loss their own societies would be suffered altogether of from these kind of practice and the global terrorists also reached their goals of pushing these nations lean to lost of their own civil liberty in a similar fashion.
More than protests or inhumane labor treatment, pollution and environmental degradation are almost certainly the greatest crises facing China's growing economy today. Respiratory diseases from bad air are the number one cause of death in China, and acid rain has affected areas as far as Korea and Siberia as well as a third of its own citizens. Over-logging has caused the rapid desertification of the northern and western parts of the country, leading to dust storms that sweep across the heavily populated coast and other countries' major urban areas. Another detrimental effect of logging is erosion: in the south, flooding has become increasingly devastating and frequent because of it. China's thirst for wood has already put a strain on logging in Indonesia, inciting unlawful forest destruction and risks to threatened species. The pollution of rivers (as much as 70% are polluted from industrial and agricultural wastes) affects other countries in the region, including Russia, Burma, Laos and Cambodia. Water shortages continue to exacerbate an already desperate situation for peasants across China, leading to more and more urban migration and social unrest.
Altogether, yearly costs to the Chinese economy in reduced health and productivity from pollution and other environmental problems have been pegged at 8% of GDP, or roughly the economy's annual growth.
Greenhouse gas emissions are, of course, the environmental problem with not just regional, but worldwide global-warming consequences. According to one BBC report, China's total CO2 emissions are expected to overtake those of the U.S. by mid-century.
All these problems are the direct result of the lack or impotence of Chinese law and the blind pursuit of short-term wealth. In the West we must face the reality that huge quantities of inexpensive imported products do have a cost; one that ultimately stems from the lack of effective regulation over Chinese enterprise.
The environmental damage leveled upon China and its people is in no small part due to the energy demands of its economy and the relative inefficiency of its industry (consumption is 3 to 5 times that of developed nations when compared to GDP). Thus, as China grows, it must maneuver for greater control of natural resources, increasing competition and raising energy prices worldwide. The situation will become increasingly ripe for conflict, unless Western nations can devise effective ways of limiting China's demand for energy.
World energy shortages, however, are not the only one route to conflict in Asia. Besides Taiwan, China has had quarrels with several neighbors over borders, cultural alliances and territorial waters, any of which could become a flash point for China's growing armed forces. Taiwan and trade, however, are the primary reasons introduce threats to regional security.
Trade disputes (over issues such as shipping lanes in the South China Sea and Middle Eastern oil) will likely grow as China's wealth and influence provide greater opportunity for audacity. Between democratic countries, these disputes would most likely be resolved in negotiation, but China's political system is based on the teachings of Mao: "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." The Communist government established itself as the ruler in China by following these doctrines, but the Chairman could not have imagined the scale of weaponry involved when he wrote that in 1939: General Zhu ChengHu of the People's Army recently insisted that nuclear weapons may be used in the event of conflict over Taiwan, as well as advocated the need and capacity for China to destroy hundreds of the US cities, and took over most of the Asia, partially due to its own failed one-child policy, and other problems including the ones resulted from this deformed economic growth.
Furthermore, China's need for external conflict can equally be stimulated by forces within the country. The ruling party is facing ever-increasing dissent from inside its borders, and confronts the growing need to reassert its legitimacy. Governments in this position have often resorted to military might to build nationalism and to redirect attention from flaws in their own economic and political systems. China's record on this policy question is not promising. It has started wars in Korea (to legitimize the Party shortly after it came to power), India (during the famines of the Great Leap Forward), Russia (during the unrest of the Cultural Revolution) and Vietnam (as Deng Xiaoping filled the power vacuum left by the deceased Chairman Mao). The lesson is clear: it doesn't take an outside threat to rouse China to war.
In sum, we have a rapidly industrializing autocracy surrounded by potential enemies, still indignant over wars a generation ago and laying claims to neighboring territories. China today and Germany on the eve of World War I have these in common, but the brutality of the Chinese government is much more akin to that of Germany on the eve of World War II.
In the face of the threat from a volatile dictatorship of armed conflict over Taiwan, energy resources or national pride, European powers must recognize the need to continue their arms embargo. Should a war break out with the help of these European weapons, it would threaten Taiwan's democracy, the balance of power in Asia and worldwide political stability; it would be a disaster for China, Asia, Europe and the planet.
It is important for all of us to realize and to remember that the current Chinese economy is irregular, anti-free-market, manipulated by authoritarian policies and presents an extremely high risk. Should major political, social or economic problems arise within China, it could completely collapse, ushering in a world economic crisis of a magnitude well above that of Thailand's financial crisis in the 1990s -- heavy investment in China has resulted in heavy reliance on China. The rapid growth of China's economy and trade, as structured by the Communist Party, presents major concern for the fate of the world economy, and the specter of war imperils the security of humanity.
The allure untapped riches in China is shrouded in the stink of temptation reminiscent of the events of a tragic folk tale of the Han Dynasty. In the folk tale, a beautiful peasant woman is wooed by the powerful Qin Emperor after his harsh Great Wall construction project killed her husband. She relents after he promises to give her husband a burial fit for the Emperor's father. But after the funeral, the wife, without warning, sacrifices herself to the waters of a nearby river.
China is in the midst of a similar tragic conflict, between the entrenched hierarchy of the political structure and the temptation for material wealth that has perverted cultural traditions and threatened both its citizens and foreign nations.
We must continue to hope that, in the face of such turmoil, our values of world peace, freedom and economic stability are not whisked away by the current and left to drown. We must work together to prevent this kind of tragedy. In particular, the business community of the West must take notice of the dark side of Chinese economic growth, to take necessary measures before it is too late.
Ciping Huang
Executive Director
Wei Jingsheng Foundation
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Photo published by the newspaper:
www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2005/newsletters2005-6/homepage0503HCP-4.jpg
(Original article in German was published on May 9, 2006, at Handelsblatt, the biggest business newspaper in Germany. Its website is: www.handelsblatt.biz)
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中文版
Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue Number: A207-W102
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A207-W102
Release Date: May 21, 2006
发布日：2006年5月21日
Topic: The Dark Side of China's Economic Development to the World - Economically, Security and Ecology (by Ciping Huang, original article in German was published on May 9, 2006, at Handelsblatt, the biggest business newspaper in Germany)
标题：中国经济的黑暗面，及其对国际安全与世界生态的影响 -- 黄慈萍（本文原文为德文，2006年5月9日发表于德国最大的商界报纸Handelsblatt上）
Original Language Version: English (Chinese version at the end)
此号以英文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2006/report2006-05/HuangCP060521HandelsblattOpEdA207-W102.htm
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中国经济的黑暗面，及其对国际安全与世界生态的影响
-- 黄慈萍
中国近二十年来的经济改革已经进入了变化和发展的新阶段，其中很大的一个原因是由于西方的投资。廉价劳力，不健全的规章制度，廉价的自然资源都促进了这个迅速增长，同时也增加了制造业发展的不平衡。这些是从持续很久了的表面上很漂亮的宏观经济学的数据所能看到的信息。然而，中国制造的产品大量涌入国际市场，不仅仅给中国经济和社会带来了一系列严重后果，而且还给稳定的国际发展和外交政策带来严重影响。现在是西方经济界和商界认识到中国经济发展的黑暗面的时候了：也就是说，沿着这条路走下去，将把中国人民和全球都带入一个极其危险的境地。
中国制造业的发展已经迫使许多国家，包括那些有着长期正规工业体系传统的国家，经济状况的改变。首先，那些没有技术或技术不高的工人感到即使他们工资微薄足以生存而已，却还是越来越难以和更廉价的劳力竞争。第二，资金从西方流向中国制造业的同时，西方国家却大量花钱进口中国制造的物品，它引起公司解雇职员，失业率上升，以及对政府救济政策的更大依赖。第三也是最明显的是，它造成了西方国家制造业的萎缩，结果是个人收入和国家税收都因此减少。
这些工业经济方面的严重问题，是由于中国对劳工的压迫实际上给国际市场带来的连续不断的威胁。在那里，工人们通常不得不一周七天不断地、每天工作12-16小时，即使他们能及时得到他们的工资，其数量也相当低廉（对比经济增长而言几乎没有增加）。工厂通常条件恶劣，毒品泄露，安全程度低下，在工伤事故及死亡人数方面，比例持续上升。2005年煤矿工业方面的事故造成了近5500 名中国工人死亡。那些西方工业国家早已成规的福利，比如工人安全条例，社安保险金，最低工资额限定等，在中国则是望之末及的，无宜于减轻中国工人和国际制造业经济的负担。可悲的是，如果西方工业经济，比如德国，希望和中国竞争，那么只有两种情形：要么中国提高工人的待遇，要么西方工人继续陷入其绝境。
可笑的是，马克思主义者有关的资本主义的分析正是当今中国，这个以马克思主义为意识领域而建立的国家，正在发生着的现实 -- 中国社会已分化成不同的阶级，日益严重的贫富不均和腐化现象横扫全国。实际上，缺乏政治改革的更多投资只能加重这个趋势，进而把社会引向惨绝人寰的社会动乱。最近的统计数据反映了这个不祥的趋势，中国官方警察部门于今年一月份宣布，2005年示威和"扰乱治安"的事例高达87,000案例，与2004年相比上升了百分之六点六，而"影响政府功能"的事例上升了百分之十九。示威者表达了他们对社会现象的悲愤，比如下岗，腐化，环境污染和拖欠工资等等。由于没有和平协商的途径（如独立工会），罢工和示威将会成为中国社会不稳定的重要因素。
在中国城市及其贫困的农村，贫富不均依然是社会动荡的主要因素。贫富悬殊的差距越来越大，数亿农民流入城市，加重了这个差距所造成的冲突。流民中的黑社会多是贫穷所逼迫下成立的犯罪集团，他们局骗、贩毒、甚至贩卖人口，给负担已经沉重的城市增加混乱。加上各个阶层政府、警察的腐化，中国已经成为世界上最不稳定的社会。
前德国总理施罗德习惯性地忽略中国政府的问题，而现德国总理默克尔至今似乎保持怀疑和公平一些的态度。在她第一次与布什总统的官方访问中，她把中国描述为"对任何条规都不买账"的国家。中国的政治权力阻碍了其他国家按照自由市场的做法进行贸易与制造，并保护了腐化现象，加重了极权的蹂躏。甚至中国在加入世贸组织时的公共保证也不过是漂亮却做不到的诺言而已。
中国缺少对知识产权的尊重、盗版率高达90% 的情形引起了国际激愤，使得国际社会不得不拒绝中国这个巨大的市场。给西方工业社会带了的同样震撼是，所有的产品技术都可能被盗用，结果是大量的廉价冒牌货充斥市场。
这个现象背后的严重现实是中国的政治体制缺乏法治。整个社会腐败和贿赂业已成风，而目前存在的法律系统，完全被共产党独裁政权一手控制，成为御用工具。
缺少法制和规章制度，给对中国经济的投资带来了若干负面后果。首先它降低了工作效率。由于腐化和贿赂腐蚀了社会，更多的外币流向的是政府官员的腰包，而不是直接用于生产。房产业方面的情形是最为广泛而典型的例子。为新建企业而不得不支付的居民搬迁费，本应归属原本住在那里的人，但价格却不可信，大多数钱进了有人际网、有权利的富裕的拆迁管理官员手中。现今中国穷人抗议的最主要原因之一就是因为那些因大造工厂、办公楼和商场而失去家园的拆迁户没有得到合理的赔偿。
缺乏法制的第二个危险是，尽管经济开放，国家依旧可以随时将私产充公。今年元月，地方官员侵霸某位公民的价值日趋上涨的油田私产，该位公民的抗议却使得他本人被送入监狱。私人财产的任意侵占，使百姓和政府之间的暴力对抗升级。
与之对应的是中国不稳定的财政部门。由于政府控制借贷，造成银行承受着过量的欠款或情形恶劣的贷款。而这种情形又因腐败而日趋加重。去年，三家中国银行被揭露有贿赂、贷款欺诈、挪用、及其他丑闻。但是这些仅仅是众所周知的普遍欺诈中曝光最多的露馅事故而已。中国银行业的问题之一是他们必须在政府控制的股票市场以及糟糕的结构中周旋。尽管过去五年经济持续上升，中国的股票市场还是丢失了一半的价值，。
官方政府的政治压迫不仅仅表现在人权方面，比如枪杀示威者及许多领头反抗的人士，而且表现在严重影响了必要的信息通畅（比如对萨斯疾病真相的掩盖），社会安定和政府的透明度。在中国大陆，记者手脚被束缚得非常紧，而外国记者就更难探听到真相。结果是，有关投资、经济状况乃至大众生计的信息流通就被堵塞了。
更进一步，许多外国企业也被迫改变经营原则以屈就共产党政权。一个醒目的实例是，最近美国网络巨星雅虎公司按中国政府的要求，交出了大陆记者师涛的私人电邮帐号和个人计算机联网地址。以至于后来师涛被冠以泄露国家机密的罪名遭受判刑10年。这所谓的“国家机密”其实微不足道，不过就是透露了天安门事件15 周年时期可能发生的示威。不幸的是，一些包括古狗在内的大公司也随之效仿。然而，西方政府被这些大公司的游说左右着，他们还没有充分意识到这一系列行动对其自身社会所带来的危险与损害。与此同时，全球性的恐怖分子也在推动这些国家本身以类似的方式逐渐失去其民权自由的目标。
除了示威抗议浪潮及对劳工的不人道待遇，中国目前经济发展所面临的最大危机可以算是环境污染和恶化。由于空气混浊而流行的呼吸道疾病在中国是为第一杀手。酸雨扩及到朝鲜和西伯利亚地区，并给三分之一的公民带来危害。中国北方和西部地区的乱伐树木造成沙暴流行，严重影响了东海岸人口密集的城市和其它大城市。乱伐树木的另一个危害是侵蚀，南方的水灾因此泛滥频繁。中国急缺木材造成印度尼西亚开始乱伐树木，非法破坏了那里的森林结构，威胁其它生物的生存。中国河水污染严重，其中70%的污染来自工业农业的废水，并造成对那一带的国家包括俄国，缅甸，老挝，柬埔寨的污染。中国缺水问题越来越严重，尤其危及的是中国农民的生存：这也促使他们大量迁徙到城市、造成社会的不稳定。
总之，以污染及其它环境问题为代价而降低了的人民健康与生产率所得到的中国经济的年增长率实际上不超过8%。
温室效应的气体排出所带来的环境问题不仅仅是区域性的，更是全球性的。据BBC的一个报道，中国二氧化碳的大量排出会在本世纪中期超过美国。
所有上述问题，都缘由于中国缺少强有力的法律制度，盲目追求短期丰饶效应。西方必须面对大量进口廉价物品实际上是很昂贵的这个现实，它是中国企业缺乏有效的规章制度的产物。
由于经济发展需要能源以及工业效率低下（与发展国家同等 GDP相比，中国消耗了3至5倍多的资源），中国的环境破坏给中国及其人民所造成的损失非同小可。随着中国的经济发展，它将不得不寻求对自然资源的更进一步的控制，使得竞争更加激烈，并造成全球能源价格上涨。西方国家若不找到有效途径限制中国对能源的需求，这个情形将进一步导致冲突。
世界能源短缺并不是在亚洲可能出现争端的唯一根源。除了台湾以外，中国曾和几个邻国为了水源、边界、民俗等问题有过争执，其中任何之一都可能会成为中国动用它不断增长的军队的导火索。而台湾与贸易将是中国对该区域的安全造成威胁的主要由来。
贸易来往方面的争端，比如中国南海的运输线和中东石油的运输线之争，将会随着中国财富和影响力的增长而使中国更加胆敢予以挑战。民主国家之间的争端通常通过协商来解决，而中国的政治系统则基于毛泽东的策略：枪杆子里面出政权。共产党因为遵循这条原则成为了中国的统治者，但是毛泽东在 1939年写下这条策略的时候，他自己大概都无法想象多大的武力将会被使用：中国人民解放军的朱成虎将军最近表明并扬言，中国可能会使用核武器来解决问题，如台湾的问题以及中国可以摧毁美国的几百座城市，占领大部分亚洲地区，等等。而他所提出的这些动机的缘由竟归罪于中国自身的独生子女政策的失败，及其它的各类问题包括经济畸形增长中所出现的问题。
进一步地，中国的对外冲突亦可能因内部冲突而发。面临日益增长的境内的异议力量，统治政党要进一步设法确认其合法地位。通常在这个位置上的政府会动用武力，煽动民族主义，将人们的注意力从本国的政治经济问题方面转移开来。中国在这方面的记录已经有所佐证。它在夺取政权不久就为了巩固政权而发动朝鲜战争，而在“大跃进”之后出现了大饥荒后立即向印度开火，然后是文革高潮期挑起中苏边境之争，而邓小平在毛泽东去世以后上台不久，就发动了中越战争。教训很清楚：中国走向战争不需要外部的威胁。
总的说来，中国发展迅速的工业极权是由一群可能的敌人所掌握的，他们仍然持有上代人遗留的仇恨，并认为拥有有争执的领土。中国的今天和德国的一次世界大战前夜有相当的类似之处，而中国政府却比二次世界大战前夜的德国政府要心狠手辣得多。
面对中共极权的对台武力威胁、能源问题，以及自我膨胀气焰的实际威胁，欧洲政府一定要认识到欧洲必须坚持其对中国的武器禁运。一旦中国利用欧洲提供的军备发动战争，这将威胁台湾的民主，破坏亚洲的权力平衡及全球的政治稳定，这对中国，亚洲、欧洲和全球都是一个巨大的灾难。
我们必须认识并且记住，今天中国的经济增长是不正常的、违反自由市场规律的、是被政治极权者所控制的，因而危险极大。倘若中国内部发生重大政治、社会或经济动乱，中国经济就可能迅速崩溃，给世界经济带来冲击，并在幅度上完全超过９０年代泰国的金融崩溃。西方国家在中国大量投资意味着他们将大量地依赖于中国。在中共建筑下的中国经济和贸易的快速增长，给世界经济带来的前景是忧人的，而战争的鬼影则更严重地危及了人类的安全。
中国未被开发的富裕所带来的吸引力，被笼罩在诱惑的担忧之中。这让人联想起汉朝的悲剧传说。传说中的一位美丽农妇在丈夫修筑长城身亡以后，受到权势极大的秦皇帝的追求。在皇帝向她保证她的亡夫可以得到皇帝父亲般的葬礼后，这女子松口了。但在葬礼之后，她却出乎意料地跳进附近的河里自杀了。
中国也处在类似的悲剧冲突之中，处在维护现有政治结构与财富的诱惑之间，而财富的诱惑已经冲击了文化传统，并给本国与国外的人民都带来威胁。
但我们在面对如此的动荡时仍然寄予希望，希望我们所珍重的世界和平、自由和经济稳定不会因此被悲剧中的激流所冲击并淹没。 因此，我们必须共同努力来防止这种悲剧。特别是:我们希望西方商界注意到中国经济发展的黑暗面，在还来得及的时刻采取必要的行动。
魏京生基金会执行主任
黄慈萍
文章采用照片：
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（本文首发文为德文。发表于2006年5月9日的德国最大的商物报纸Handelsblatt上。www.handelsblatt.biz。中文翻译来自英文原稿。魏京生基金会首发中文稿。请注明出处。www.weijingsheng.org）
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