Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A473-W263
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A473-W263
Release
Date: July 3, 2009
发布日：2009年7月3日
Topic:
Challenges of North Korea's Nuclear Tests to the United States -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：我对朝核危机的解读 -- 魏京生
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Challenges
of North Korea's Nuclear Tests to the United States
--
Wei Jingsheng
Not
too long ago, the world was shocked by North Korea's underground nuclear tests.
The international community has since heightened its pressure, which however
has only met with North Korea's growing confrontation with a plan for a third
test and launch of missiles. North Korea not only shrugged off international
criticisms, but also openly announced, in view of the UN's sanction measures,
that any attempt to inspect North Korea's ships on the sea will be regarded as
a declaration of war.
This
type of behavior of extreme madness is only possible for a little hooligan
regime under the protection of his big brother hooligan. Its who-cares gesture
is a result of the support of that big brother. In doing so the little hooligan
is not only pleasing the big one and helping it challenge their rivals but also
benefiting without any risk.
This
sort of hooliganism can be characterized as follows. First, the little hooligan
needs the big one. Second, the big hooligan faces strong rivals that were hard
to deal with. Third, the little hooligan firmly believes that the big one can
protect him. Fourth, the big hooligan pretends that he has nothing to do with
the little guy but in fact quietly indicates or directs everything thereof as a
chip for future bargaining. And lastly, the little hooligan must have a big
enough impact to force the rivals come to a bargain with the big hooligan if
the rivals can't get rid of the nuisance.
These
characteristics are well known to anyone who ever watched police-hooligan group
movies without the need of dealing with real hooligans. But what's not well
known is that big and little hooligan regimes act the same as individuals.
There is only a difference in scale but not in essence.
Take
the example of the North Korean crisis this time. For the first point above,
the little Kim Jim-il needs the help of the big Hu Jintao. Kim gets his food,
energy and industrial products from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), without
which Kim won't be able to stay in power. The CCP, on the other hand, never
would give Kim enough. A dog with too much food won't work hard. If a dog
became wolf that would hunt by himself, the dog then would not follow orders
well. The CCP is raising a good dog by giving enough to survive but only giving
barely enough.
As
to the second point, needless to say, the US, Europe and Japan are all strong
rivals of the CCP, the head of this Mafia group.
Regarding
the third point, however, all these strong rivals have been taking appeasing
policies with the CCP for many years. The little hooligan knows this very well
and knows that these tough rivals will not get tough with the CCP anytime soon.
Although the UN has passed sanction measures, they had soon been stripped off
the core content. In addition, the CCP's partners in the West raised their
voices by saying that it would only be possible to resolve the North Korean
issue with the CCP's help, setting a perfect trap for the West.
The
trap is that Kim's threat this time is not a joke. Nuclear tests and long-range
missiles are all done well. In the eyes of ordinary people, North Korea has
nuclear strike capability already. Worse yet, such capability is in the hands
of Kim, a near-death madman. Under the circumstances, the odds of real disaster
are heightened. All these orchestrated acts are reasons why people can't get
around the trap.
As
a result, the US, who has long been appeasing toward the CCP, this time took a
firm stance and thus formulated the UN sanction measures. But the CCP and
Russia insisted to take out the core contents and matched it with a hands-off
gesture that we the Chinese call "sitting there to watch the tigers
fight". That is to force the
US to seek for negotiations from Beijing and Moscow, if the US does not want a
war. Eventually, the US will have to back off politically and become
increasingly weak. This is the true goal of China and Russia.
The
CCP took a chance this time with a big risk because it has determined that
Obama is only a talking-tough and talking-good guy who does not have the guts
of President J. F. Kennedy in decision making. If the CCP wins this worthy
gamble, it can force the US to help the CCP pass the crisis at the cost of
compromising the US itself. In fact, the CCP has hit right on Obama's weakest
spot, forcing him to make a choice between saving the US or the CCP with no
middle ground. It is especially true after the CCP skillfully used Kim's
nuclear weapon as a subtle means of threat and successfully eliminated any
compromise for the US.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2009/WeiJS090619nuclearNKorea.mp3
(Written
and recorded on June 19, 2009.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A473-W263
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A473-W263
Release
Date: July 3, 2009
发布日：2009年7月3日
Topic:
Challenges of North Korea's Nuclear Tests to the United States -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：我对朝核危机的解读 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2009/report2009-07/WeiJS090703nuclearNKoreaA473-W263.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
我对朝核危机的解读
-- 魏京生
前些日子朝鲜进行了地下核试验，造成了全球的震惊。国际社会施加的压力不断升级，北朝鲜的对抗口气也不断升级：不但还要进行第三次核试验，而且还要不断发射导弹。北朝鲜政府不但不在乎国际社会的舆论，而且针对联合国的制裁措施公开宣布，谁敢检查船只，就等于宣战，北朝鲜将以战争对待之。
这种疯狂的行为，只有在大流氓政权保护下的小流氓政权才干得出。小流氓之所以敢向全人类社会，摆出一副不管不睬的架式，完全是因为有大流氓在背后撑腰。他这么做，是在讨好大流氓，帮助大流氓挑战他的对手，可以获得实际的好处，而且没有危险。
这种流氓哲学，或称为流氓的行为方式，有几个基本的特点。第一个特点是小流氓必须有求于大流氓。第二个特点是大流氓有不好对付的强大对手。第三个特点是小流氓相信大流氓的保护能力。第四个特点是大流氓虽然装出于事无关，但还是暗示或者明示，与此有关，为将来的谈判留足余地。第五个特点是小流氓的行为要有足够的破坏性，迫使对方如果不能灭了他，就不得不找大流氓谈判。
这些规律，即使没和流氓团伙打过交道的人，看看警匪片，也都知道个大概。很多人不知道的是，不但小小的流氓如此，就是大大的流氓政权也不过如此。规律嘛，不分大小早晚前后，只有水平的差别，没有本质的区别。
以这次朝鲜核危机为例，第一条，金正日这个小流氓有求于胡锦涛这个大流氓。粮食、能源和各种工业品，大部分是靠中共的援助。没有中共的援助，金正日根本无法维持他的政权。而中共却从来也不让他吃饱，也不让他自立。因为吃得太饱的狗，就不努力了。狗如果变成狼，能够自立，也就不听话了。所以让金正日吃不饱也饿不死，才能把他当成一条好狗来使唤。
第二个特点不用说，美国欧洲和日本这些民主国家，都是中共这个黑帮老大不好对付的强大对手。
第三个特点是，这些强大对手对中共实行绥靖政策，已经多年了。小流氓早已摸清了底细，知道他们不会和中共翻脸，进行制裁。紧接着中共就要求取消制裁的核心内容，再加上中共在西方的合伙人，大喊大叫，说解决北朝鲜，只有有求于中共，这就把一个陷阱做得十分完美了。
这个陷阱就是金正日这次的威胁不是闹着玩的，核武器试验成功了，长程导弹也试验成功了。在外行的老百姓看来，这就是具有核打击的实力了。更糟糕的是，拥有这个能力的金正日，是个疯子，而且快要死了。这种情况下，发射可能性大大提高了。这是人们绕不过这个陷阱的主要原因。
正因为如此，十几年来，习惯于绥靖政策的美国，采取了强硬的态度，才促成了制裁协议。但是，中共和俄罗斯坚持抽掉了核心内容，摆出了一副坐山观虎斗的架式，
逼迫美国如果不想选择一场战争，就只能找北京和莫斯科谈判。最终还得向中俄两国做政治上的让步。美国就会这样一步步地走向衰落，这才是中俄两国的真实目标。
中共选择这个时机，冒这个大风险，是因为看准了奥巴马是个外强中干、只会说漂亮话的新手，绝不敢做出肯尼迪总统那样大胆的决策。这场豪赌如果赢了，中共就可以逼迫美国继续牺牲自己，来援助中共，帮助中共渡过危机。实际上，中共是抓住奥巴马的弱点，迫使他在救美国，还是救中共之间，做出选择。二者只能选择其一，没有什么中间道路。特别是中共用朝鲜核武器作为威胁以后，就没有选择折衷的余地了。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2009/WeiJS090619nuclearNKorea.mp3
（撰写并录音于2009年6月19日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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