Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A519-W299
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A519-W299
Release
Date: January 7, 2010
发布日：2010年1月7日
Topic:
To Talk about Past and Future Around the Fireplace -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：围炉夜谈过去和将来-- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
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To
Talk about Past and Future Around the Fireplace
--
Wei Jingsheng
Here
comes a new year. We have watched
the New Year fireworks, as well as had our new year's eve dinner. Now we sit down together around the
fireplace to talk late into the night.
The topics are about what happened in the past year, as well as what
might happen in the coming year.
The people who care about their businesses talk about businesses. The people who care about art talk
about art. I care most about
China's politics and its future, so I shall chat about the political past and
future of China.
Last
year's political circumstances maintained the development trend of the previous
a few years in China. The Chinese
people's dissatisfaction of that reality maintained its trend of steady
uprising. The economic situation
in China continuously deteriorated.
The corruption of the Chinese officials continuously developed, and thus
the Chinese people's defense of their own rights and opposition to the tyranny
continuously rose. The relative
difference is that the scale of the group opposition against the tyranny
continuously expanded, with a developing trend of conflict between the ethnic
groups.
Some
observers notice a phenomena that is different than the past - behind the group
opposition against the tyranny, there are shadows coming from the internal
fights within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). To use people's dissatisfaction or people's movement for the
internal fight of the Chinese Communist party, is not a common approach within
the CCP. But it has been a way for
the CCP to induce large-scale turmoil.
The "Cultural Revolution" and the "June 4 Event" are
the most typical cases among them.
The
old Chinese teaching says: the overturned carriage ahead of us is the lesson
and experience for the carriages behind.
Both the Cultural Revolution and June 4 used the dissatisfaction of the
Chinese people to initiate a movement.
One initiator ended with a victory, while the other one ended with a
failure. What do they have in
common and in difference? Let us have
some analysis.
What
was common between these two was that the initiators were both from the highest
level of the power structure, but were in the position of losing their
power. Mao ZeDong was the highest
leader before the Cultural Revolution, yet he had lost his power. So with backing by Lin Biao who
controlled the military and with a group of hired writers as a vanguard, Mao
initiated a movement to grab the power in the name of the Cultural Revolution. From the very beginning, Mao had
clearly defined the criminal charges against the others and knew his
goals. With his own high prestige,
his enemy had no strength to fight back, so Mao resolved his adversary easily.
Yet,
as soon as the Pandora's Box of the Chinese people's dissatisfaction was open,
it was hard to stabilize the situation.
Despite Mao's status of the living god of the time, he could not solve
these problems completely even with 8 years of time. As soon as Mao died, Deng XiaoPing restored his own
order. From the politics to
faction, Mao failed completely, despite that he seemed to have won big at the
beginning.
The
June 4 Event in 1989 is somehow different. Zhao Ziyang had the support of the highest level generals in
the Chinese army. But most of
these generals were also under Deng's command for a long time. They dared to support Zhao, but did not
dare to rise against Deng. So they
were really in the middle, instead of in true support to Zhao. The intellectuals on Zhao's side raised
well defined criminal charges: anti-corruption. That action received agreement within China, but these
intellectuals did not provide a clear goal.
As
soon as the Chinese people requested an overthrow of the regime for new
leadership, all these people exited collectively. This type of Western gentlemen's protest had chosen the
wrong target in a wrong circumstance.
In that either you die or I die circumstance of the autocratic politics,
it could only end with failure.
By
learning from the history of the Cultural Revolution and June 4 of 1989, we
should be able to understand the CCP politics last year. Why did they treat the possible vice
chairmanship of Xi JinPing to such an importance? The struggle was fierce enough to the degree that if Xi did
not voluntarily step away, it might have induced a political coup. There was news that some people who
held the real power threatened to initiate a military coup if this vice
chairmanship issue was not nullified.
The person who threatened is still occupying the position that is enough
to initiate a military coup. This
exactly proves that to initiate the political coup is the intention of the
highest authority.
Why
did the highest leader, Hu Jintao, care so much about this vice chairmanship of
the military? That was because in
the previous two major political coups, the attitudes of both vice chairmen Lin
Biao and Hong Xuezhi were of key element.
Both Lin and Hong were in the similar position as Xi; they all had in
depth personal relationships with the military, yet were effectively the
highest commanders. Their very
existence was one of the most important conditions to determine the success of
a political coup.
The
support of the people has been another important condition to determine the
successfulness by the Chinese political culture. The reason that Mao Zedong had a victory and then failure
was mainly determined by the popular will. The third important condition is the trial of strength of
ability and determination of the leaders on both sides. Both Liu Shaoqi and Deng Xiaoping were
short of ability and determination in comparison to Mao. After the movement started, they lost
battles after the first encounter.
Even when they admitted defeat, it was not accepted by Mao. After all, it was not a simple
competition, but a battlefield that determined the survivor.
Zhao
Ziyang had even less skill. He was
not skilled in either Oriental culture or Western culture, and thus lost the
game that should have been won. It
made Deng's fraction so happy, that for a while they could not even locate a
suitable successor. The
fundamental reason that Zhao lost is that he did not dare to say what he
wanted, not to mention what the people wanted. This was like playing a chess game, without knowing where
the king is. How could he not lose
the battle?
Since
June 4, 1989, the Chinese people's goals are getting more clear, that is
democracy and freedom. Who ever
would let the people to have these ideals, the people will support. This support is more important that the
power of the vice chairmanship of the military committee. In the next round of internal fighting
within the CCP, whoever could give the people what they want will have the
upper hand. The weight of the vice
chairmanship of the military, even with the determination and ability together,
is less of that the popular will of the Chinese people.
This
is one of my predictions for future China.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS100101NewYear.mp3
(Written
and recorded on January 1, 2010.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A519-W299
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A519-W299
Release
Date: January 7, 2010
发布日：2010年1月7日
Topic:
To Talk about Past and Future Around the Fireplace -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：围炉夜谈过去和将来-- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-01/WeiJS100107NewYearA519-W299.htm
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《围炉夜谈过去和将来》
-- 魏京生
又是新的一年。2010年新年的烟花放过了，年夜饭也吃过了，是坐下来围炉夜谈的时候了。话题不外是过去的一年如何如何；新的一年将会如何如何。关心生意的谈生意；关心文艺的谈文艺。我最关心中国的政治和前途，就和大家聊聊政治的过去和将来吧。
去年中国的政治形势维持了前几年的发展趋势。人民群众对现实的不满维持了匀速上升的势头；经济形势持续恶化；官员腐败持续发展；维权抗暴的势头也就顺理成章地持续上升。有所不同的是，群体抗暴的规模持续扩大，并且有向民族矛盾发展的趋势。
有些观察家注意到了一个与过去不同的现象。这就是群体抗暴的背后开始出现了中共内斗的身影。借助于人民群众的不满发动或者利用群众运动进行内斗，是中共内斗不常用的手法。但却是多次引发大规模动乱的手法。文化大革命和六四事件，就是最典型的案例。
古语说的好：前车之覆，后车之鉴。就是说前面的车是怎样翻车的，可以给后面的车提供经验教训。文革和六四都是利用群众的不满发起运动。一个发动者胜利了；另一个发动者以失败告终。这两者有什么相同和不同之处呢？下面我们略作分析。
相同之处是发动者来自权势的最高层，但是都处于权势的失意者地位。毛泽东是过去的最高领袖，但已经大权旁落。他以掌握军权的林彪为后盾，以一帮御用文人为先锋，发起了以文化大革命为名义的夺权运动。毛泽东一开始就把罪名和目标定的很明确，他本身的声望也很高，使得对方没有还手之力，三下五除二就解决了对手。
但是人民不满的魔盒一旦打开，想稳定局面就不是那么容易了。以当年毛泽东活神仙的地位，花了八年的时间也还没有彻底摆平。他一死，邓小平就复辟了。从政治到帮派，毛泽东都彻底失败了。虽然一开始看上去他是大获全胜。
1989年的六四有所不同。赵紫阳虽然获得了多数军队高级将领的支持，但这些将领大多是邓小平的老部下。他们敢支持赵但不敢反对邓，实际上只是中间派而不是支持者。赵派的知识分子提出了明确的罪名：反腐败。这得到全国上下的认同，但他们却没有明确的目标。
一碰到人民要求推翻当局换领导的问题上，他们就集体退场了。这种西方绅士退场抗议的手法，是既针对了错误的对象；也针对了错误的形势。在专制政治你死我活的形势下，只能以失败告终。
以文革和六四的历史为借鉴，应该可以读懂去年的中共政治，为什么把习近平的军委副主席看得这么重。斗争激烈到了习近平如果不主动取消了这个议题，就可能导致一场政变。有消息指出，某些实权派人物扬言为了这个副主席的议题要发动军事政变。那个扬言者仍然占据着足以发动政变的位置，这正好说明了发动政变是最高当局的意图。
为什么胡锦涛对军委副主席这么在意？因为在前两次重大的政变中。军委副主席林彪和洪学智的态度曾经起到了关键的作用。林彪、洪学智和习近平的身份相似，都是和军队有深厚的私人关系而又居于实际上的最高指挥者地位。他们的存在，是政变成功与否的重要条件之一。
民意的支持度，一向被中国政治文化看作是成功与否的另外一个重要的条件。毛泽东先胜后败都是民意在起关键的作用。第三个重要的条件，就是双方的领袖意志和手腕的较量了。刘少奇、邓小平从意志到手腕都略逊一筹。运动开始后，只一个回合就败下阵来，连认输都不被接受。因为这不是竞技运动，是你死我活的战场。
赵紫阳更是技不如人，东西方文化都是半吊子。他把一盘本来可以全胜的棋给走输了，让邓派人物大喜过望，一时竟找不到合适的接班人了。他输掉的根本原因就是不敢说自己要什么，更不敢说给人民什么。就像下棋不知道老将在哪儿，这还能不输吗?
从1989年的六四以来，人民的目标越来越明确，那就是民主和自由。谁能给人民这些，人民就支持谁。这比军委副主席的权力更重要。在今年开始的下一轮中共内斗中，谁能给人民他们所要的东西，谁就抢占了先机。军委副主席和意志、手腕加在一起，也不如人民的意志更重要。
这就是我对未来中国前途的预测之一。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS100101NewYear.mp3
（撰写并录音于2010年1月1日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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