Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A550-W321
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A550-W321
Release
Date: June 9, 2010
发布日：2010年6月9日
Topic:
Silver Lining of a Dark Cloud - Ongoing Massive Workers' Strikes in China Could
be a Turning Point for the Economic Recession and an Assurance of Peace in the
World -- Ciping Huang (published by: World Citizens)
标题：乌云的银边——正在进行的中国工人的大规模罢工可能成为经济萧条的转折点，及对世界和平的保障（黄慈萍发表在“世界公民”上的文章）
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Silver
Lining of a Dark Cloud - Ongoing Massive Workers' Strikes in China Could be a
Turning Point for the Economic Recession and an Assurance of Peace in the World
(Ciping Huang's Article on the Invitation of World Citizens)
June
9, 2010
Silver
Lining of a Dark Cloud - Ongoing Massive Workers' Strikes in China Could be a Turning
Point for the Economic Recession and an Assurance of Peace in the World
--
by Ciping Huang, the Wei Jingsheng Foundation
In
early 2006, I published a lengthy article at Handelsblatt, the biggest business
newspaper in Germany. It was titled: "The Dark Side of China's Economic
Development to the World - Economy, Security and Ecology". Unfortunately, what I predicted in my
article was proven to be true and China's problems have extended to the world,
from contaminated food to a deformed world economy. In particular, problems are in the manufacturing sector due
to abused workers rights in China and the forceful devaluation of the Chinese
currency by the Chinese government in an effort to gain advantage in an unfair
trade. All these problems are exactly
due to an autocratic political system, where there is no imaginary "free
market" but a new breed of bureaucratic red capitalists who are more
vicious and aggressive in robbing the country and people's wealth for their own
gain. Now, people should wake up
as the result has grave consequence and has contributed significantly to the
worldwide recession, along with sounding the alarm of environment
deterioration, and a threat to world peace not far away.
Unfortunately,
during this economic recession, scholars and the news media have scrambled to
pay attention to the superficial figures of the financial meltdown, without
paying enough attention to the true cause of the economical collapse in
reality. Politicians and
journalists still have yet to understand what happened in the financial sector
overnight, which was really due to the slow economic erosion over more than one
decade, and in particular due to the naive "free trade" policies
which were not for "fair trade" after all. These policies resulted in China's trade deficit with
both the USA and E.U. skyrocketing, while America lost its manufacturing sector
to China and Americans lost their jobs.
As the Western and other democratic governments were caught off their
guard sleeping over their trade policies, and even knowingly and unknowingly
giving up their basic principles such as human rights and democratic values in
an effort to engage with China's "economic miracle" based on the
advantage of its "low/no human rights" standard. Nowadays, human rights subjects become
an ambiguous topic to the politicians and Chinese democracy activists were shy
away by the these who anxious to please the Chinese government in favor of the
trade and profits. Nevertheless,
they did not realize that all the good economic deals they thought to be were
really rotten, and they simply let the Chinese Communist government sit in the
driver's seat to guide the world to the direction of its intention. That was the dark cloud covering us.
In
the past a couple of years since the recession, despite the counter-measures by
the world economy, especially Europe and the USA, this dark cloud has been
thickening and boiling. If we do
not react in a timely and correct manner, a tornado might touch down with all
the powerful forces of destruction in its path just as we see in nature, except
here will be a much wider path with a much larger scale of destruction to China
and the world.
This
tornado will most likely start in the form of an uprising and turmoil in the
lower class of people in China, especially among the almost one billion poor
workers and peasants. What kind of
power can a tornado composed of one billion people do and how could the whole
world be shielded away from that?
Like
tornadoes in nature, certain environmental conditions need to be met to produce
this economic, political, and social disaster. In the background, it has a landscape of the environmental
condition of ever-increased disparity of rich and poor in China. The trigger is the further
deterioration of these people's lives when the recession hit. This deterioration is compounded as the
Chinese currency is forced to raise its exchange rate to foreign currencies,
especially US dollars, and its value inside China is devalued tremendously thus
a rapid inflation inside of China.
A very weird yet true phenomenon, indeed. Just in the past a few months, inflation has been
accelerated while people, especially among the lower incomes, are not
compensated at the same speed.
These
conditions brought the latest waves of strikes and dramatic suicide incidents
in factories such as FoxConn, run by Taiwanese businessman Terry Gou, in
China. While it is true that on
average the foreign and Taiwanese joint ventures in China offer better wages
with better working conditions than in strictly Chinese companies, the media
exposure of the suicides of more than a dozen workers in the past 5 months in
FoxConn have caught attention in China, as well as the world. Despite related parties trying to push
off their responsibilities and even claiming that the people who died were
after some monetary compensation for their families, how could we be convinced
that these healthy workers of age 18 to 25 years old would kill themselves
simply because of money for someone else.
As
the inhuman factory conditions including working hours and stress surfaced,
just a few days ago, FoxConn owner Terry Gou more than doubled workers' wages,
and reduced the overtime of the workers to less than 3 hours a day. Meanwhile, widespread workers strikes
surfaced around China in other factories.
Just in the month of May 2010, workers strikes broke out like lightening
out of the dark clouds in ZaoZhuang of ShangDong, NanJing of JiangSu, ShenZhen
of GuangDong, PingDingShan of HeNan, FoShan of GuangDong, KunShan of JiangSu,
ChongQing of SiChuan, HongHe of YunNan,
LanZhou of GanSu, YiZheng of JiangSu, as well as Shanghai and
Beijing. Most of these strikes are
composed by thousands of workers each.
The trend continued in June with angry factory workers not only refused
to go to work, but also destroyed the factories' facility, especially these
security systems.
The
Communist government responded by sending cadres of government sponsored
"workers' union representatives" to the strike sites; however, these
representatives are not trusted by the workers. Just a few days ago, in the factory site of Honda, the
"workers' union representatives" that the government sent in
physically clashed with workers.
Ultimately, Honda did respond to the workers' demand for a salary increase
of 33%.
What
people have noticed and some are surprised about is that, for a short time
period, the Chinese Communist government relaxed control of both news reports
and workers united actions against these foreign joint ventures. Thus speculations of the government's
intentions grew. As an
example, there were quite a few known suicide cases in FoxConn before, yet they
were not allowed to be reported on until only recently. While general conditions and wages in
these joint ventures are more favored by job seekers than in native Chinese
factories, it is the dark side of the joint ventures that is exposed the
most. In the tightly manipulated
news environment in China, one should suspect the intentions of the Chinese
government.
Why
was there this sudden relaxation of the news media and workers' movements, two
of the most tightly controlled issues in China? The purposes of the Chinese government are mainly for two
reasons. One is that the Chinese
government is using these reports as a way to redirect people's anger and
attention, as well as to release some pressure from the ready to explode
society, especially these of workers and peasants. While unwilling and even not daring to take away the favorable
economic conditions to the homegrown bureaucratic capitalists who have both
money and power, to the Communist government, these joint ventures with the
foreign companies, and Taiwanese businessmen could be count as the least
casualty with minimum price. The
other reason is to take advantage of the situation and force these businesses
out of China so the government itself can take over the abandoned factories for
its own gain, like what happened 60 years ago when the Communists took over the
power.
Indeed,
FoxConn's owner Terry Gou's reactions exactly meet these two expectations.
Yesterday, he announced that he would move part of his factories back to Taiwan
from Mainland China. In
particular, he talked about how there will be less cheap labor advantage in
China, while Taiwan has and should gain more superiority in manufacturing.
On
one side, in a short run, the Chinese Communist Party government, especially
its leader Hu Jintao who is a orthodox Maoist, should be happy for this kind of
outcome. Nevertheless, on the
other side, this kind of action is a double-edged sword that might bring a
silver lining to the Chinese rights defending progress, especially by
accelerating the workers' conscience and actions for workers' movements even go
as far as to form independent workers' unions. We could use the old Chinese saying: "the water that
could carry the boat, is also capable of overturning the boat." For the Communist government, this kind
of action could be harmful to themselves or even bring on its end as described
by the old Chinese proverb: "Drinking the poison wine in an effort to stop
the thirst."
As
the ongoing situation will force the departure of many joint ventures, there is
also a silver lining for the economies of the West and other democracies
including Japan and Taiwan. First,
the uprising of Chinese workers is a turning point and an opportunity to push
them to resume the manufacturing in their own countries, which has its
importance beyond jobs opportunity for their own people. Second, it will enable them to reduce
their trade deficits with China, which act like an endless bleeding resulting
in the slow death of their economies, or at least continuously contribute to
the economic recession. In my
view, they should take initiatives to get in the drivers' seat, combined with a
passive mode of increased taxation of imported unfair goods from China. In addition to the "advantage of
low human rights", to be able to compete unfairly in the international
markets or simply due to the strategic need of the Communist government, these
products from China often receive huge monetary compensations from the Chinese
government, in addition to the intentionally devaluated Chinese currency by the
Chinese government. This is the
true reason behind the unbalance trade and the disadvantage of the others'
goods competing with products made in China.
Using
the USA as an example, President Obama tried to spend a lot of money in his
economic stimulus package, but a big chunk of this money went to China in the
form of the trade deficit. The
result is that while the economy is not recovered and the American workers
still do not have jobs, the American government got an even bigger debt. The Obama stimulus package is really
helping the Chinese Communist government get out of own its economic trouble.
President
Obama and the US government need to understand that simply giving lip service
to "increased export" to China will not solve the problem because
there is no such a market in China and the Chinese people do not have the money
to spend on American products.
Meanwhile the bureaucratic capitalists of the Communist powerful and big
business will make a huge profit on the expense of the American taxpayers due
to favorable trade policy which is unfair.
Illustrating
this point to the Europeans is easier, when they realize that despite their
claimed effort to expand markets in China, their total export to China of 1.3
billion people is less than their export to Switzerland of less than 8 million
according to the data published by the European Union. So despite the population, Chinese
capacity of consuming goods from the European Union is only about half percent
of the Swiss. Why? There are too few people in China able
to afford foreign goods. After
all, most of them could barely make an essential living. This is the true picture of that
"enormous market in China" which is boasted by too many Western
businessmen and scholars.
So
when we are talking about improving the Chinese workers' conditions, including
increasing their income, we hope that the West and the other democratic
countries realize that it would be good for themselves too, because:
1)
the recovery of manufacturing sector in these countries, to their own economic
and strategic advantage;
2)
the gain of jobs for their workers and a reduction of the unemployment rate;
3)
an expanded market in China and an increase of exports to China;
4)
a reduced trade deficit, and thus a renewal of hope for a whole economic
recovery.
From
China's side, improved worker's rights marks the upcoming end of the model promoted
by Deng XiaoPing since the late 1970's.
The West has been hailing Deng's economic policy despite the fact that
Deng's intention was to get rich without changing the political system. The ongoing workers rights movement
prove, despite the suppression from the Chinese Communist Party, that Deng's
model will not work in China and could only destroy a free market economy in
the rest of the world. The limited
economic freedom these workers are seeking will for sure bring a call for a
matching political change, and that is exactly what we have been calling for,
democracy in China.
To
prepare for and make these changes would be a win-win case for both the Chinese
and the others. Hopefully, it
would not only help a true recovery from the economic recession, but also would
avoid a world turmoil as the pressure in China has already built up to the
critical point of a violent revolution.
The more suppression by the Chinese Communist Party, the more violent it
will be, and the more effect felt by the rest of the world.
Let
us keep this in mind: to assure the peace and prosperity of the world, it is
time to care about the human rights and democracy in China, especially the fate
and the welfare of the Chinese workers.
The time is now.
(original
article published at: http://www.worldcitizens.org.tw/)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A550-W321
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A550-W321
Release
Date: June 9, 2010
发布日：2010年6月9日
Topic:
Silver Lining of a Dark Cloud - Ongoing Massive Workers' Strikes in China Could
be a Turning Point for the Economic Recession and an Assurance of Peace in the
World -- Ciping Huang (published by: World Citizens)
标题：乌云的银边——正在进行的中国工人的大规模罢工可能成为经济萧条的转折点，及对世界和平的保障（黄慈萍发表在“世界公民”上的文章）
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-06/HuangCPonChineseworkers100609WorldCitizensA550-W321.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
乌云的银边——正在进行的中国工人的大规模罢工可能成为经济萧条的转折点，及对世界和平的保障
―― 黄慈萍
早在2006年，我曾在德国最大的商业报刊“商业日报”（Handelsblatt）上发表过一篇长文，题目是：“中国经济的黑暗面，及其对国际安全与世界生态的影响”。不幸的是，此文所预见的情形已成为现实。由“低人权优势”所带来的中国问题波及世界各地，从不合格食品到扭曲的经济，特别是在中外工人的权益都受到损害时给制造业所带来的问题，以及中共政府蓄意将人民币贬值以从不公平的贸易中获取利益的后果。所有这些问题的根源都来自中共的集权统治，在那里不可能有“自由市场”，而只有各种红色官僚资本家。他们史无前例地夺取国家和人民的财富资源，在亿万人民受苦受难的基础上成为富翁。现在，人们应当从噩梦中醒来，觉悟到对这一切的纵容的结果是世界范围的经济大萧条，伴随着的还有环境恶化，以及对世界和平的威胁。
在此经济萧条时期，学者和媒介都很关注来自损失惨重的金融界的表面数据，而似乎没有足够的精力和愿望去关注和寻找现实中经济崩溃的真正根源。政治家和记者们似乎还不懂，这个如同一夜间发生的金融界的崩溃实际上是过去十多年里经济侵蚀的积累，特别是所谓“自由贸易”政策其实并非“公平贸易”的后果：造成了中国和美国、欧洲等国的日益增长的巨大贸易逆差。尤其是在过去十几年内，由于中国“低人权优势”的经济发展，美欧各国失去了大量的制造业，他们的人民丢失了工作。当许多西方民主国家没有警觉地睡着懒觉，不闻不问贸易政策，有意无意地拿他们基本人权原则和民主理念来一厢情愿地换取他们自以为是的经济利益时，中共政府成了驾驶员，领导世界按他们的方向前进。这便是目前压在我们头上的乌云。
在过去这两年里，尽管世界各国尤其是欧美国家采取种种措施来拯救它们的经济，这块乌云却变得更厚更黑。如果大家不快速而又正确地行动起来，那么龙卷风就可能会以它前所未有的力量席卷中国乃至全球，它将如同自然中的龙卷风那样具有威力与毁灭性，但范围更广，层次更深。
这个龙卷风起源于那些中国的无法生存的低层百姓，特别是那些将近一亿人数的贫穷工人和农民的起义和造反。想一想吧，有一亿人组成的龙卷风，对这个世界的震撼将是多么巨大？
像自然界里的龙卷风一样，只有在某些环境下，才有可能出现这个政、经、和社会层次的龙卷风。这一亿人群的龙卷风来自贫富差距的巨大裂痕。经济萧条进一步摧毁了低层百姓的生活。难以置信的事实是，当人民币在海外的汇率，尤其是对美元升值之时，
人民币在中国大陆却在快速地贬值。在过去几个月中，通货膨胀突飞猛进，而低收入的小老百姓的收入却远远跟不上这个膨胀速度。
因此便引发了近来大规模的工人罢工、富士康工厂的连续跳楼自杀事件，等等。属于台湾商人郭台铭的富士康在中国有好几个分厂。一般说来，与外商和台商合资的企业，工作条件较好，工资也较高，但媒体还是暴露了过去五个月来富士康公司十多名工人的跳楼自杀事件，它让全中国乃至整个世界震惊。尽管相关人员都在推诿责任，甚至宣称这些自杀者是为了给家庭寻求补偿金才跳楼自杀，但谁能相信这些年龄在18到25岁间的年轻人能以命相拼，就为了给家人讨到一笔补偿金？
在工厂缺乏人道，工人的工作时间超长，工作压力太高等问题曝光之后，几天前，富士康老板郭太铭给工人加了超过两倍的工资，并将加班时间缩短到不超过3小时。与此同时，中国各地其它工厂也开始大规模的罢工。仅2010年5月间，工人罢工连绵起伏，如同冲破了乌云的闪电。山东的枣庄、江苏的南京、广东的深圳、
河南的平顶山、广东的佛山、江苏的昆山、四川的重庆、云南的红河、甘肃的兰州、江苏的的仪征，以及上海、北京各地都爆发了不同形式的工人罢工。很多罢工的参加者都以数千计。
中共政府采取了行动，派中共干部所支持的“工会代表”到罢工基地调解，但这些代表并不能真正代表工人利益。几天前，政府派往本田汽车制造工厂的“工会代表”与工人发生肢体冲突。最后，本田公司终于同意工人的要求，加薪将近３３％。
为人们所注意并惊讶的是，在这短短时间内，中国政府竟然放松了对新闻报道和工人团结一致对付台商和外资的限制。人们自然要猜测中共的意图。举例来说，富士康公司自杀事件以前就有，但直到最近才给予报道。而外企和台企的工人平均待遇与工资，一般比中国本土公司要好，是待业者的优先选择。而如今，正是这些对外企台企的黑暗面曝了光。中共对媒体一向是严加监控并予以操纵的，因此人们不能不对中共政府的真实意图起疑心。
新闻媒介、工人运动，是中国政府控制最严密的两个领域。为什么中共突然对这两个领域放松控制？思辨的结论主要有两个。一是中国政府想用这个方式将人民的不满和愤怒引向它方，释放一触即发的社会压力。而中国政府不想，也不敢触动红色官僚资本家的利益。因此，对付外企和台商所承担的风险最小。另一个原因是中国政府想在这个情形下捞好处，包括把这些外企赶走，顺便将他们遗留的厂房资产攫为己有。
的确，富士康老板的经历和他做出的反映恰好符合中国政府上述的两个目的。昨天，郭台铭宣布他“打算回台寻找地点，把部分生产迁回台湾。”他表示，现在连美国、韩国、日本都在检讨製造业外移，台湾不能放弃製造业。
一方面，在短期内，中共政府，特别是其领导人、正统的毛主义分子胡锦涛应该高兴。另一方面，这又是个双刃剑，它的另一个刃是让中国维权运动带来了一条银边，一线希望，特别是加速了工人的自我意识，推动了工人运动，甚至有可能成立独立工会。用传统中国俗语就是：“水可载舟，亦可覆舟”。对中国政府而言，这是“饮鸩止渴”，不仅仅对他们不利，甚至会带来崩溃。
当许多外企和台企不得不离开中国时，它同时也给西方经济和包括日本、台湾在内的民主国家的经济带来一线希望。一方面，它可能成为一个转折点，让他们设法在自己本土重建制造业，这对其国家的意义不仅限于创造工作机会。另一方面，它可以减少与中国的贸易逆差。而贸易逆差如同无止境的流血，导致经济缓慢坏死。我认为，欧美等民主国家到了该主动坐到这个减少贸易逆差的驾驶座上，与增加对中国进口不平等货物的进口税这个被动模式联合起来采取行动的时刻了。我们不应忘了，除了这个虐待工人的“低人权优势”，正是由于中共战略性的、计划性的补贴，以及对人民币的有意贬值，才造成今天的贸易不平衡，以及各国产品都难能与中国产品竞争的事实。
以美国为例，尽管奥巴马总统试图用大量金钱的刺激经济方案来缓解萧条，许多钱还是以贸易逆差的形式流到中国去了。结果是经济并没有复苏，美国工人仍旧没有工作。而美国政府的债务却更高了。奥巴马的刺激经济方案实际上是在帮助中国共产党政府走出经济萧条的阴影。
奥巴马总统和美国政府需要明白，简单地扬言“增加对中国出口”并不能解决任何问题，因为中国没有这个市场，人民根本没有购买力，而中国有权有势阶层的官僚资本家们和美国大企业却可以从中获得巨额利润，最后花的不过是美国纳税人的钱。
相比较，对欧洲人描述同一个观点要容易些。根据欧盟发表的数据，欧洲人已经意识到，尽管竭尽全力扩展中国市场，他们对中国13亿人的出口总额还是少于他们出口给不到八百万瑞士人的数目。也就是说中国人民对欧盟产品的承受能力不过是瑞士人的半个百分点。为什么？因为能负担这些产品的中国人太少了，大多数的中国人的收入连最低的生活水平都难以维持。这就是欧美商人吹捧的“中国这个巨大的市场”的真实面目！
因此，当我们谈论改善中国工人劳动条件，包括提高工资时，我们希望西方和其他民主国家明白，这将对它们自己也十分有利。因为这：
1）有利于在本土重建制造业，促进本国经济和战略优势；
2）减少失业率，增加就业机会；
3）增加对中国的出口，扩展中国市场；
4）减少贸易逆差，给经济复苏带来希望。
从中国的角度看，这标志着即将结束自1970年以来的邓小平模式。邓小平幻想让经济发展而不进行任何政治改革。不管中国政府如何努力，邓的经济增长模式将被证明行不通，而且还只会负面地影响世界的自由经济体系，有限的经济自由必须与相应的政治改革匹配，这便是现在我们呼吁的事情，即中国必须有民主。
为这些变化而做的努力，将给中国和其他国家都带来益处。它将不仅能够帮助经济萧条的国家逐步复苏，也可以避免世界性动乱，中国内部的压力已经到了临界点，一场暴力革命随时可能爆发。中共的镇压越大，革命的爆发就越凶猛，对世界的影响也就越大。中国的和平和顺利地转型需要大家的共同努力。
让我们记住：为确保世界和平与繁荣，该是我们大家关心中国人权和民主的时候了，特别是关心中国工人的利益的时候了。现在就是这个时刻。
魏京生基金会执行主任
－－黄慈萍
２０１０年６月９日
（原文发表于：http://www.worldcitizens.org.tw/）
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