Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A554-W324
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A554-W324
Release
Date: June 19, 2010
发布日：2010年6月19日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XIII) Finance - by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之十三: 平衡金融 -- 魏京生
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The
Way Out for China (Part XIII) Finance and Value of the Chinese Currency
--
by Wei Jingsheng
Recently,
a main topic that the "patriotic youth" inside China have been
stir-frying is the appreciation of the Chinese currency RenMinBi (RMB). Even the overseas special agents of the
Chinese government have readjusted their targets to protect the value of
RenMinBi, so one could see how important it is that it needs sparing no
effort. However, is it really that
important to keep the RenMinBi devalued?
One
excuse is to guarantee the increase of export, thus guarantee employment. On the surface, it seems reasonable,
but in reality it is really a hoax.
What is trade? Trade is the
exchange of goods. When exports
are much more than imports, naturally there is a shortage of goods inside
China, thus the inflation.
So
how to solve this issue? The
Communist Party and big businesses say: this is easy, just distribute less
wages to reduce the internal spending, then it is balanced. So if the goods are sold at the normal
market price, what to do with the excessive profit? Well, we could preserve it in banks both inside China and
overseas. This is how China got
its foreign reserve in trillions of US dollars now, which is also the source of
overpriced housing in China.
However,
now the house prices in China are so high that people could not bear it. The money in the banks also flows back
to the market, which on one side resulted in an overheated international money
market, while on the other side resulted in excess production capacity inside
China. Meanwhile, both markets
inside and outside China shrank disproportionally. This is the root cause of the global economic recession in
the last few years. It is caused
by unbalanced trade, unfair salary and thus the unbalanced profit margin.
To
view this issue from a different angle, it is the much too cheap wages that
have reduced the internal market in China, while China races to control the international market. Accompanied by the foreign trade
surplus, large amounts of Chinese wealth are flowing abroad. Part of that wealth is taken by the
foreign capital, while the rest is stored in the financial markets overseas in
various forms of bonds. Yet,
within China, its internal market is still at the level of a poor country of
the third world, and the income of its people still ranks in the rear of these
poor countries.
How
to change this deformed situation?
It is very simple and now is the best opportunity: to raise the exchange
rate of the RenMinBi and open the currency market for free exchange. Then, the foreign currency stored in
the international market would return to the Chinese market to absorb the
RenMinBi. This return would
produce three results:
1) The reduction of the
RenMinBi flow in the market, thus reducing the rapid inflation;
2) A decrease of exports and
increase of imports, thus a gradual shift of foreign trade toward balance;
3) Production would rapidly
shrink in the short term.
Although
it would get rid of the stagflation situation, the shrinking production might
result in a vicious circle. This
is one of the reasons why the Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, does not dare to
allow free currency exchange.
As
it is impossible to expand the international market in the short term, there is
only one solution: to expand the internal market inside China. With the current workers' movement
spreading over the whole country demanding wage increases, it would exactly solve
this problem. The increased wages
to the middle and lower classes, in addition of the raised value of the
RenMinBi, could all be thrown into the consumers' market inside China. This will expand the market rapidly,
thus preventing the shrinking of production. Thus the independent workers' union movement could be the
true emancipator to save China's economy.
There
are people who are concerned that raising wages would result in a reduction of
production, as well as factory relocation. This argument is more to scare the people. Even when the wages of all the Chinese
workers are doubled, their average wage is still much less than in many
developing countries. The
capitalists still have a lot profit to gain. So a massive relocation will not happen immediately, but the
excessive profit of the Chinese and foreign capitalists will indeed be reduced.
This
solution brings the advantage that the Chinese workers' living status would get
some improvement, and a reduction of the tension in the international trade
war. More importantly, it would expand
the internal market inside China, which is the root condition for the Chinese
economy to be able to develop continuously. With the present kind of market that is dependent on
exploiting the working class and is harmful to the others in an effort for
selfish gain, China cannot continue.
Currently, the rising international trade war targeting China has
already put a period on this so-called "China Model".
Will
it produce even more serious inflation when both the RenMinBi exchange value
goes up and wages for the Chinese workers are raised? On the surface, these two measures would partially mutually
offset each other, which is not very helpful in reducing the ongoing inflation. However, there is a third factor, which
is the increase of imported goods.
An increased RenMinBi value, together with removing non-tariff tax
barriers, would result in a rapid increase of imports. To absorb the excessive currency would
be an effective way to restrain inflation. Thus, already driven up by the increased consumption in
China, the internal production would also be simultaneously increased. This is the only way for the Chinese
economy to walk out of this stagflation predicament.
There
is some public opinion in the USA that is concerned about a damage to the US
economy when the Chinese government dumps its US dollar reserve. That is because indeed, some within the
Communist government and some in the Chinese society always clamor to strike
the US economy by the way of dumping the US Treasury securities. This idea is a freak produced by the
economic theory of the Communist Party without an understanding of the market
economy. In some way, it is more
of a psychological war. On one
side, the Chinese government makes thunder without the rain, in an effort to scare
the American people. On the other
side, the US government appears to be worried, in a way to lure the Chinese
government to do something stupid.
What
would be the result if the Chinese government dumped the US Treasury
securities? That would devalue
both the securities and the US dollar.
The value of the securities would not affect the US government's ability
to pay back its debt in time. But
the devaluation of the US dollar would be what the US President Obama needs in
an effort to hit his target of increased exports. When the US dollars are devalued, not only would the Chinese
RenMinBi, but also the value of the other currencies including the euro and
Japanese yen would all go up, so it helps the USA to easily reach its goal of
reducing imports and increasing exports.
This would be only good for the USA without harm. Why should we be afraid if the Chinese
Communist government did that?
Would
the reduction in value of Treasury securities result in a resistance to buying
them? No. Devalued US dollars means the
acceleration of the economic growth.
They would buy with appreciated currency, because the credit of these
securities is determined by the credit of the country times its economic situation. When the US dollars are devalued yet
its economy is improving, there is no reason to doubt the credit of the US
Treasury securities.
__ __ __
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS100617ChinaWayOut13finance.mp3
(Written
on June 17, 2010, and recorded on June 18, 2010. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A554-W324
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A554-W324
Release
Date: June 19, 2010
发布日：2010年6月19日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XIII) Finance - by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之十三: 平衡金融 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-06/WeiJS100619ChinaWayOut13financeA554-W324.htm
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《中国的出路》之十三:平衡金融
-- 魏京生
最近国内的爱国愤青炒作的主题是人民币升值的问题。连海外特务们都把目标调整到了为币值保驾上来了。可见任务重要，全力以赴了。但是保持低价人民币真的那么重要吗？
一个理由是保证出口增长，保证就业。这看起来好像很有道理，其实是个大骗局。贸易是什么？就是商品的交换。出口大于进口，国内市场商品必然短缺，也就是通货膨胀。
怎么解决呢？共产党和大企业说，这个好办，少发些工资就行了。让国内市场缩小一些，不就平衡了吗。那么商品按正常市场价格卖出去，超额的利润怎么办呢？可以存在国内外的银行。这就是几万亿美元外汇储备的来源。也是高房价的来源。
但是房价太高了大家都受不了。银行的钱也会回到市场上流动。造成了国际金融市场的过热；也造成了国内生产能力的过剩。同时国内外的市场却不成比例地收缩了。这就是近几年全球经济衰退的根本原因。是不平衡的贸易、不公平的工资和它们所带来的不平衡的利润率造成的。
换个角度看，就是过于廉价的工资压缩了国内市场，同时不正常地抢占了国际市场。伴随着外贸的顺差，大量的财富流向了国外。其中有一部分让外国资本赚走了；其它的以各种债券的形式储存在国外的金融市场中。而国内市场仍然是第三世界穷国的水平，人民的收入仍然在穷国中排在后边。
怎样改变这种畸形的状况呢？很简单，而且现在正好是最佳时机。提高人民币汇率，开放自由兑换的货币市场。所谓储存在国际市场的外汇就会进入国内市场吸收人民币。这样会产生三个效果：
1) 市场流通的人民币减少，通货膨胀迅速下降。
2) 出口下降，进口增加。对外贸易逐渐趋向平衡。
3) 生产在短期内迅速萎缩。
这虽然摆脱了滞胀的局面，但生产的萎缩可能会导致恶性循环。这也是温家宝不敢开放货币自由兑换的原因之一。
在国际市场短期内不可能扩大的前提下，只有一个办法，就是扩大国内市场。现在全国蔓延的增加工资的工潮，恰好解决了这个问题。中下层工薪阶层所增加的工资，
再加上币值的提高，都会立即投入到国内消费市场。迅速扩大国内消费市场，阻止生产的萎缩。独立工会运动真正成为拯救中国经济的大救星了。
有人担心成本提高会导致工厂外迁，生产下降。这才真是吓唬老百姓呢。即使全国工人增加一倍的工资，平均工资水平仍然比很多发展中国家还要低得多。资本家仍然有太大的利润空间。所以，大量迁厂的事情根本就不可能发生。只是中外资本家的超额利润被压缩了一部分而已。
好处不仅仅是工人的生活水平有所提高，国际贸易战的紧张形势有所缓解，更重要的是扩大了国内市场，这才是中国经济可持续发展的根本条件。现在这种靠剥削别人的市场，损人利己的发展模式，很难长久持续下去。正在兴起的、针对中国的国际贸易战，已经给这种所谓的中国模式画上了句号。
提高人民币汇率和提高工资双管齐下，会不会造成更严重的通货膨胀呢？表面看，这两项措施部分的互相抵消，对缩小通货膨胀帮助不大。但是还有第三个因素的加
入，这就是进口的增加。币值的提高再加上取消非关税壁垒，进口会迅速增长。吸收掉过量的货币，是抑制通货膨胀的有效方法。受消费增长带动的国内生产，也会同步增加。这是中国经济走出滞胀困境的唯一的方法。
美国有一种舆论，害怕中国抛售美元储备会损害美国经济。因为中国政府内和社会上的确有一部分人，叫嚣着要用抛售美国债券的方法打击美国经济。这也是共产党经济理论的一个怪胎，是不懂市场经济的妄想。看上去更像是心理战。一方面中国政府只说不做，是在吓唬美国老百姓。另一方面美国政府假装害怕，引诱中国政府干傻事。
抛售美元债券会有什么后果呢？那就是债券和美元同时贬值。债券币值对美国政府按期还债没有什么影响。而美元贬值，正是达到奥巴马总统增加出口的目标所需要
的。因为美元贬值就意味着人民币和日元、欧元升值。于是美国不费吹灰之力就达到了进口减少，出口增加的目标。对美国是有利无害。为什么害怕中国抛售呢？
抛售会使美国发行债券遭受阻力吗？不会的。玩钱的人都知道美元贬值意味着什么，那就是经济增长加快。在买进升值货币的同时，仍然会买进美元债券。因为债券的信用，是由国家的信用乘以经济状况来决定的。在美元贬值，经济看好的形势下，没有理由怀疑美国政府债券的信用。
__ __ __
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS100617ChinaWayOut13finance.mp3
（撰写于2010年6月17日，录音于2010年6月18日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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