Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A556-W325
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A556-W325
Release
Date: June 27, 2010
发布日：2010年6月27日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XIV) Chinese Currency - by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之十四: 人民币的汇率 -- 魏京生
Original
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The
Way Out for China (Part XIV) Chinese Currency
--
by Wei Jingsheng
Right
before Chinese president Hu Jintao attended the G20 summit in Canada, the
Chinese government played a little trick by claiming it was ready to allow the
Chinese currency RenMinBi (Chinese yuan) to move more freely against the US
dollar, i.e. let the RenMinBi increase its value. Indeed, a few days before the summit the value of the
Chinese currency went up a little bit, thus receiving a lot of praise from the
international society including from US President Obama. "China's decision to increase the
flexibility of its exchange rate is a constructive step that can help safeguard
the recovery and contribute to a more balanced global economy," Obama said
in a statement on the same day.
Yet,
the good news did not last long.
Within a few days, there came the news that the Chinese state banks
heavily bought US dollars in an effort to devalue the yuan. Why, at this critical time of serious
inflation inside China and the threat of international trade war, wouldn't the
Chinese government raise the value of the yuan to solve these two issues at the
same time? Instead it preferred to
increase the inflation and increase the risk of trade wars. This kind of unreasonable conduct
provides food for thought.
From
the immediate reaction of the Obama administration to the increase of the yuan
value, the Chinese Communists might have overestimated their ability to buy out
the American politicians. The
value of the yuan rose one day and then devalued on the second day, giving a
heavy slap on the face of those who are friends of the Chinese Communists. Yet, the pressure from the US Congress'
and the US government's demand for the increase of the yuan's value has not
decreased. Raising the yuan's
value is still the topic of the highest priority in the G20 summit in
Canada. The US Congress is still
pushing for a resolution to severely punish the Chinese government. So regardless whether the yuan devalues
or not, China's trade to both the USA and Europe will still drop rapidly;
meanwhile, it will pay more foreign currency when it imports goods.
Why,
instead of drinking a toast, did the Chinese government rather be made to drink
a forfeit? Why would it refuse
such a matter which really should be beneficial to the Chinese economy and make
everyone happy? Examining more
carefully, we would know it is really an issue of who would benefit and who
would be victimized. The increase
of the yuan's value would be beneficial to China and the Chinese society, but
not to those in minority who control the fate of the country. Those in minority would put the
interests of the country and people aside, and even victimize the country and
its people. This selfishness is
the characteristic of the politics of an autocratic country.
A
rising value of the yuan would result in a loss of massive amounts of foreign
currency. Who would care? Of course it would be the organizations
that use China's money to speculate.
Who owns these organizations?
They are controlled by the relatives of the corrupt Chinese officials. Using China's money, these people
speculate on currency exchange and own a fortune more than that of smaller
countries. Yet, they are
absolutely not willing to take any losses. They are also capable of controlling the nation's policy, in
an effort to avoid personal loss.
This is the time when their personal interests are far above the
interests of the country and its people.
The
direct result of a rise of the yuan's value would be the decrease of export and
increase of import. This would
expand China's internal market, which would compensate for the reducing
international market. It would
reduce the trade conflict while effectively increasing the income of the
Chinese people and reducing the risk of social conflict in China. However, some export businessmen who
make money by cruelly exploiting the workers would have to reduce their
incomes. This is the root reason
why they are firmly against the rise of the yuan's value.
The
very unfortunate fact is that the power of these minority businessmen, both
Chinese and international, is much stronger than that of the working classes
both Chinese and international. In
the Chinese environment where the Chinese people cannot vote for their
political leaders, this minority capitalist power is almost infinitely
huge. So the interests of the
country and the people are not within the consideration of the Chinese
Communist government. Thus, as the
majority Chinese people fall into the world-manufacturing center of sweatshops
that make excessive profits for the capitalists both inside and outside China,
they can only live impoverished lives.
The
issue of raising the yuan's value is not just related to the Chinese economy,
but also closely related to the economy of developed countries in America and
Europe. The over-developed foreign
trade with China has not only produced unbalanced trade, but also damaged both
the Chinese society and the economy of the Western developed nations. One of the results of this imbalance is
the excessive increase of imports in the developed nations, yet an inability to
export. The huge trade deficit
increases both unemployment and national debts. The accumulation is the current economic recession.
However,
democratic countries are different from autocratic ones. People's votes make the ultimate
decision. When the people realize
that their interests are damaged, the politicians have to react. This is the reason that trade wars are
becoming stronger and stronger. Of
course there are some suspicious politicians trying their best to defend the
Chinese Communist Party and big business.
They are trying to shift the attention in an effort to fish in troubled
waters. Nevertheless, public
opinion is much clearer after debate, and these problems have already come to a
degree that could not be covered up.
Now
there are two choices in front of the Chinese Communist leaders. The good choice is to raise the value
of the yuan dramatically, to balance the trade, and meanwhile to raise the
income of the workers. The result
would not only reduce the ongoing inflation, but also reduce the incisive
conflicts both inside China and outside China.
The
bad choice is to keep the relatively low currency exchange and to continue the
aggravation of conflict both inside and outside China. This choice will result in the Chinese
people's resentment against the rich expanding into a political mood and
leading to social turmoil. The
international trade barrier will induce a massive reduction of export, in
addition to the inflation inside of China. The result would be a collapsed economy and great disorder
through the whole society. While
the people are living in an abyss of suffering, the Communist Party could not
have a good end either.
Many
friends are reckoning that, from the patterns of the Communist autocratic
interest groups, the possibility for the good choice is low. More likely, the Communist Party will
choose collapse. It will behave
like most addicted gamblers. Even
knowing that they are losing the family fortune, they will still press resolutely
forward towards bankruptcy.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS100623ChinaWayOut14currency.mp3
(Written
on June 23, 2010, and recorded on June 24, 2010. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A556-W325
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A556-W325
Release
Date: June 27, 2010
发布日：2010年6月27日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XIV) Chinese Currency - by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之十四: 人民币的汇率 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-06/WeiJS100627ChinaWayOut14currencyA556-W325.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
《中国的出路》之十四: 人民币的汇率
-- 魏京生
在胡锦涛参加二十国首脑会议之前，中国政府搞了个小动作：宣布将要开始调整人民币汇率，也就是说人民币将要升值。在会议开始前几天，确实让人民币小幅度的升值，换来了包括美国总统在内的国际社会一片赞美声。奥巴马甚至声称为此而改变大会的议程。
可好景实在是太短了。仅仅几天的时间，就传来了中国政府大量收购美元，压低人民币的消息。为什么在国内通货膨胀严重，同时面临着对外贸易战的紧要关头，不升值人民币以便同时解决通货膨胀和贸易战，反而加重通货膨胀同时又加剧贸易战的风险呢？这种不通情理的做法很耐人寻味。
从奥巴马政府对人民币升值的消息反应异乎寻常地快来看，中共可能过高地估计了他们收买美国政客的能力。升值只持续了一天就开始贬值，直接就打了中共的朋友一记耳光。但美国国会和政府要求人民币升值的压力并没有为此而减少。人民币升值仍然是二十国首脑会议压倒一切的话题。美国国会仍然在推动严厉制裁中国的议案。无论人民币是否贬值，中国对美欧的贸易仍然会快速的下降，而且进口还要多支付外汇。
为什么要敬酒不吃吃罚酒呢？为什么明明是对中国经济有利而且又皆大欢喜的事情，偏偏要拉着不走打着倒退呢？这里边牵涉到究竟是谁得利，谁受害的问题。因为国家和社会得利，而掌握国家命运的人会不得利。所以国家和人民的利益就被放在了一边，甚至让国家和人民受害也在所不惜。这就是专制国家政治的特点。
人民币升值会造成大量的外汇账面损失。谁来为此负责呢？当然是正在用国家的钱炒作外汇的一些机构。这些机构是谁的呢？是贪官污吏们的亲属。他们靠着替国家炒作外汇赚得富可敌国，但他们绝不愿意承担损失。而且他们有能力左右国家政策，避免个人的损失。这时候他们的利益就远远大于国家和人民的利益了。
人民币升值的直接效果是出口减少，进口增加。扩大了的国内市场，补充了正在缩小的国际市场的不足。这既可以减少贸易摩擦，又可以提高人民的实际收入，还可以降低中国社会矛盾的风险。但一些靠着残酷剥削工人的出口商们只好减少他们的收入，这是他们坚决反对人民币升值的根本原因。
令人非常遗憾的是，这一小部分中外商人的权势远远大于中外劳动人民。在中国人民没有选举权的情况下，这一小撮资本家的权势几乎是无限大。所以国家和人民的利益就不在中国政府的考虑之中了。中国人民就只能在成为世界加工厂的同时，在为中外资本家赚取超额利润的同时，过着贫困的生活。
人民币升值的问题。不仅关系到中国的经济，也和美欧等发达国家的经济有着密切的关系。中国过度发展的对外贸易所造成的不平衡，不仅损害了中国社会，也损害了西方发达国家的经济。这个不平衡的一个后果，就是发达国家的进口超常地增加，而出口却受阻。巨额贸易逆差就意味着失业人口的增加和债务的增加。积累起来就是现在的经济衰退。
民主国家毕竟不同于专制国家。人民的选票还是拥有最终的决定权。当人民意识到利益受损害时，政治家们不得不对此做出反应。这就是越演越烈的贸易战的原因。虽然有一些可疑的政客们在极力为中共和大企业辩解，企图东拉西扯混水摸鱼。但舆论还是越辩越清，问题已经到了无法掩盖的程度了。
现在有两个选择放在中国领导人的面前。好的选择是：大幅度调整人民币汇率，平衡贸易，同时增加工薪阶层的收入。结果不仅可以减低通货膨胀，还可以缓和国内外的尖锐矛盾。
坏的选择是：继续保持较低的汇率，继续加剧国内外的矛盾。因而造成国内人民的仇富心理扩大成政治情绪，导致社会动荡；国际的贸易壁垒导致出口大幅度下降；再加上通货膨胀，结果是经济崩溃，天下大乱。最终还是人民陷入水深火热之中，共产党也不会有什么好下场。
很多朋友都估计，以共产党独裁利益集团的规律来看，好的选择可能性不大，他们多半会选择崩溃。就像大多数赌棍一样，明知道会倾家荡产，还是会一往无前的走向破产。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS100623ChinaWayOut14currency.mp3
（撰写于2010年6月23日，录音于2010年6月24日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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