Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A558-W327
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A558-W327
Release
Date: July 4, 2010
发布日：2010年7月4日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XV) The Imbalanced Economy with Extreme Disparity
of Rich and Poor in China -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之十五: 中国的贫富不均与不平衡的经济 -- 魏京生
Original
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The
Way Out for China (Part XV) The Imbalanced Chinese Economy with Extreme
Disparity of Rich and Poor
-
by Wei Jingsheng
Recently,
the banking and finance issues have become the hot-spots of the political
debate. In particular,
opinions differ on the issue of raising the value of the Chinese yuan (i.e.
Chinese currency RenMinBi). In the
traditional Chinese economic theory, raising the Chinese yuan would result in
more unemployment and economic recession.
Such a view may be called "being overshadowed by a trivial leaf,
thus unable to see the great mountain ahead." The result would indeed happen, but only as one aspect of
several results, not a global result.
In fact, it might not be the real result. We all know that Chinese medicines are poisonous, but you
might not be poisoned when you drink it.
With several medicines combined together, or in the right dose, the
result might not be poisonous but beneficial. This analogy is similar to a government adjusting its
economy.
First,
let us look at the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan. Looking at this issue abstractly, it is quite simple: doing
the same work in China as in the USA, the Chinese wages are lower. One could say that Chinese wages are
underrated, while USA wages are overrated. However, in reality, this issue is not that simple. Various jobs cannot be compared under
completely the same conditions.
Different social environments, different manufacturing techniques,
different market environments, different social systems, different credit
classes of the social morals, could all affect the values of the work
differently. Reflected in the
foreign trade is the different purchasing power of these wages, which are
separated into two parts: one is the absolute value of the wages, the other is
the exchange rate of the currency.
When
part of China's manufacturing conditions are improved, which is to say that the
Chinese working productivity goes up, then the Chinese wages relative to the
USA wages go up and thus change the related values between the USA and
China. This change could be
accomplished by either raising the wages of the Chinese workers or raising the
exchange rate of the Chinese yuan over the dollar. Generally both would happen simultaneously. The Chinese government should raise the
Chinese yuan's exchange rate according to the difference in the wages of the two
countries, for a relative balance.
Such an adjustment would enable all the people to enjoy the result of
economic growth together.
Naturally, the Chinese market would also expand with this economic
growth. This outcome is necessary
for China's future economic development, and would also be advantageous to
America's economic development. It
would be unlikely to produce big trouble.
However,
the above economic theory has for its goal the development of a society and its
people. The Chinese government
holds a different theory of economic development, which it called "let
some people get rich first."
This theory is really a theory for getting rich by exploiting the rest
of people. According to the
country moneybags philosophy of the Chinese Communist leaders, in an effort to
let some people get more money, one must make the rest give up theirs. "Too bad, you may use your theory
of shared wealth to deceive people, while we openly state that to get rich, we
must allow exploitation."
Most of the so-called economists inside China are going along with this
train of thought of the masters for the emperors. So regardless whether they were against or for the current
economic model, their mindsets are similar.
How
to get rich? The easiest rule is
to buy low and sell high. This way
will make excessive profit. How
does one buy low and sell high without too much work? By maintaining a low Chinese yuan against the US dollar and
keeping Chinese workers' wages low, one can produce super low-priced products
in China and sell to the high valued markets in the USA. Every minute will make huge profit. The American consumers will be happy
for the cheap products and give support for this policy. Some American workers will lose their
jobs and be very unhappy. Thus, it
is important to buy in American capitalists and also through them to buy in American
politicians to maintain this kind of unfair trade policy. One must let the American capitalists
benefit, to allow them the opportunity to make their own excessive profits. Then naturally, they will spare no
effort to help the Chinese government to maintain this unfair trade.
This
wealth is the mutual wealth of both businessmen and officials of China and the
USA, instead of the mutual wealth of the people. Chinese people are not getting wealthier, while American
people are getting poorer. In contrast,
the businessmen and officials in China and the USA are getting wealthier and
wealthier. The disparity between
rich and poor of the whole world is obviously getting larger. More and more wealth turns money
around, yet the relative production and consumption of material wealth is
declining. This is the reality for
the present economic recession.
To
change this deformed economy we must change the Chinese government's policy
first. There is no shortcut, but
to raise workers' wages on one side while raising the Chinese yuan exchange
rate against the US dollar on the other side. By doing so, we could recover a balance in the differences
between the Chinese and the American labor forces, as well as recover a balance
in the China-US trade. When the
turnaround of the money and material wealth recovers a balance, then the global
economy might be able to get on the right track. After all, the essential base of the economy is the
production of the material wealth, while the money itself is just the reflection
of this material wealth. Or, using
an obscure term of the scholars, it is "equivalent".
Some
friends would ask: what is a "balance"? Please give us a group of numbers or equations. I cannot give it to you. Neither can the economists of the world,
unless they want to cheat you. The
turnaround of the market is dynamic and changes happen in response to every
participating factor.
Nevertheless, every parameter is different, so we can only calculate
roughly, instead of accurately.
Given a small change in currency value, we could estimate the degree of
market change, and then estimate the degree needed for further
improvement. We could reach an
approximate balance, but there will not be an absolute balance. We could only continuously try to maintain
a balance, but there is no way to invent a way that does it once and for all.
Nowadays,
the US government says it is not balanced, while Chinese government says it is
balanced. That is purely for
political argument, instead of talking rationally. To talk rationally, one must acknowledge the reality of the
imbalance, which does not need to be argued. Obviously, the Chinese Communist government is acting perversely,
while the Chinese people are the biggest victims. So the Chinese people have their reason to be against this
government. The intellectuals who
have conscience should be on the side of the Chinese workers who are on
strike. If the strikes by the
Chinese workers are successful, then it would not only rescue the Chinese
workers, but also the American workers, along with the world economy.
Similarly
the US government should push for the rise of the Chinese yuan. If it is successful, it will not just
rescue the US economy, but also the Chinese economy, and thus the world
economy. After all, we all know
that the US-China trade affects the world economy. The economic recession happened from that trade, thus the
economic recovery naturally should start from it. However; we should not underestimate the wealthy people's
influence in this world. Of course
they want to make excessive profits.
Nevertheless, a chaotic and declining world is not a good thing for them
either. After all, they are not
living in a vacuum.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS100702ChinaWayOut15disparity.mp3
(Written
and recorded on July 2, 2010.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A558-W327
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A558-W327
Release
Date: July 4, 2010
发布日：2010年7月4日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XV) The Imbalanced Economy with Extreme Disparity
of Rich and Poor in China -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之十五: 中国的贫富不均与不平衡的经济 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-07/WeiJS100704ChinaWayOut15disparityA558-W327.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
《中国的出路》之十五: 中国的贫富不均与不平衡的经济
-- 魏京生
最近金融财政问题成了大家议论的热点，特别是人民币升值的问题，见仁见智。从中国传统的经济理论来看，人民币升值就会造成失业增加、经济衰退。这叫做一叶障目，不见泰山。这个结果必然会出现，但这只是出现的多种结果中的一方面，不是综合的结果，也就是说它不一定是真正出现的结果。就像药是有毒的，但吃下去不一定是中毒的结果。几种药综合起来的效果很可能就没有毒，反而有益。政府调整经济也是这个道理。
先看人民币的比值问题。抽象地看问题很简单：在中、美两国做同样的工作，中国的工资低。这就是说中国的工资被低估了；美国的工资被高估了。当然现实中不是这么简单。各种工作也无法做到比较条件完全相同，例如社会环境不同、生产技术不同、市场环境不同、社会制度不同、社会道德里的信用档次不同，等等条件，都会影响到工作价值的不同。反应在对外贸易上，就是工资的购买力不同。分成两部分表现出来：一是工资绝对值不同，二是货币的比价不同。
当中国的一部分生产条件进步了，也就是说中国的工作价值提高了，那么相对于美国的工资，就必须提高，才能符合中美之间实际的相对价值。这时候就应或者提高中国工人的工资；或者提高人民币兑美元的比值。通常是两种结果同时发生。政府根据工资上升的差距提高人民币的比值，达到大致的平衡。这样调整的结果，使全体人民共同享受了经济增长的结果，中国的市场也随着经济的增长扩大了。这对今后的经济发展是个正常的结果；对美国的经济发展也是个正常的结果，不会出什么大的乱子。
但我上边说的是以社会和人民的发展为目标的经济学理论。中国政府显然是另一套理论：“使一部分人先富起来”的理论，也就是要靠剥削另一部分人先富起来的理论。按中共领导人的土财主哲学，一部分人多了就一定是另一部分人少了：没办法，你们用共同富裕的理论去骗人吧；我们要富裕，就得要剥削。国内的大部分所谓经济学家也都是按这种帝师级的思路看问题。所以，不论是拥护派还是反对派，思路都差不多。
怎样发财呢？最简单的方法就是低买高卖。低价买进、高价卖出，就可以赚取超额的利润。怎样才能不动脑筋就低买高卖呢？保持人民币兑美元的低价格和中国工人的低工资，就可以在中国生产超低价格的商品，然后卖到美国的高价市场上去，分分钟都可以赚取高额的利润。美国消费者享受到了廉价的商品很高兴，全都支持这个政策。美国的一部分工人失业了，非常不高兴。所以需要收买美国的资本家，并通过他们收买美国的政客来维持这种不公平的贸易政策。这就要对美国的资本家让利。让他们有机会到中国赚取超额的利润，他们才会全力以赴地帮助中国政府维持这不公平的贸易。
这是中、美两国官商的共同富裕，不是老百姓的共同富裕。中国的老百姓没有富裕，美国的老百姓也变穷了，美国和中国的官员和商人反倒越来越富裕了。全世界的贫富差距都明显地加大了。越来越多的财富变成钞票在那儿运转；而物质财富的生产和消费都在相对地下降。这就是经济衰退的现实。
改变这种畸形的经济首先要改变中国政府的政策。这没什么捷径，只能是一边提高工薪阶层的工资，一边提高人民币兑美元的汇率，也就是让人民币升值、美元贬值。这样才能使中、美两国的劳动力差价恢复平衡，中美两国的贸易也恢复平衡。钞票和物质财富的运转恢复了平衡，全球经济才能够走上正轨。经济的实质毕竟是物质财富的生产，钞票只是物质财富的影子，或者用学者们晦涩的说法叫做“等价物”。
有朋友问：什么才是平衡，请给出一组数据或者方程式来。这我可没办法给你，全世界的经济学家也给不出。谁给你谁就是骗子。因为市场的运转是动态的，变化发生在每一个参与的个体上，而每一个个体的参数都是不一样的。我们只能估算不可能精确计算。办法只能是根据结果估算改变的程度；然后估算出继续改善的力度。只有大致的平衡，没有绝对的平衡。只能不断维持平衡，不可能一劳永逸的发明出一个平衡的办法。
现在美国政府说不平衡而中国政府非要说很平衡，这叫抬杠不叫论理。论理便是现实就是不平衡，这不需要争论。显然是中国政府在耍无赖，而中国人民却充当了最大的受害者。所以中国人民最有理由反政府，有良心的知识分子应该站在罢工的工人一方反政府。中国工人的罢工如果获得了成功。不但拯救了中国工人，而且也拯救了美国工人，顺便拯救了世界经济。
同样的道理：美国政府压迫人民币升值如果成功了，不但拯救了美国经济，也拯救了中国经济，顺便拯救了世界经济。毕竟大家都知道，中美贸易影响着全世界的经济。经济衰退由此而发生，经济复苏也必然由此而开始。不过全世界有钱人的影响力也不可低估。他们当然愿意赚取超额的利润。但一个混乱和衰退的世界，对他们来说也不是什么好现象。毕竟他们也不是生活在真空里。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS100702ChinaWayOut15disparity.mp3
（撰写并录音于2010年7月2日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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