Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A578-W346
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A578-W346
Release
Date: October 19, 2010
发布日：2010年10月19日
Topic:
Blocking 'peaceful evolution' will lead to instability in China (The Christian
Science Monitor Publishes Nathan Gardels' Interview of Wei Jingsheng)
标题：阻挡“和平演变”将导致中国的不稳定（基督教科学箴言报发表嘎岱尔对魏京生的采访）
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此号以英文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
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Blocking
'peaceful evolution' will lead to instability in China (The Christian Science
Monitor and the Huffington Post)
Wei
Jingsheng, one of China's most prominent dissidents exiled abroad, discusses
changes within the Chinese Communist party, possibilities for political and
economic reform, the impact of Liu Xiaobo's Nobel Peace Prize, and the West's
deference to China.
October
19, 2010
Wei
Jingsheng, one of China's most prominent dissidents now living in the US, was
interviewed on Monday by Global Viewpoint editor Nathan Gardels.
Nathan
Gardels: The Communist Party's Central Committee has just completed its plenary
session. What is the significance of the promotion of Xi Jinping, the vice
president? Was there anything notable in this meeting that the world ought to
be paying
attention
to?
Wei
Jingsheng: By naming Xi Jinping as vice chairman of the Central Military
Commission, the party leaders have put him in line to succeed Secretary-General
(of the Communist Party) Hu Jintao. What does it mean? It indicates the
internal fight within the party has been relaxed a little.
Xi
Jinping was mayor of Xiamen (from 1985 to 1988) and worked his way up to
governor of Fujian (until 2002), then party secretary of Zhejiang Province
(until 2007), before he became party secretary of Shanghai. All these places
are in the economically booming coastal region. In 2009, he was also in charge
of an internal party group that sought to suppress liberal intellectuals and
non-government organizations as well as further restrict Internet access on
sensitive political topics.
Hardline
economic policy toward US
The
second major issue of the plenum had to do with the economic development plan
running up against US pressure on China to let its currency appreciate and the
related risk of trade wars because of China's huge surplus.
What
is little understood outside China is that while there are separate factions in
the Communist Party with respect to political reform - the reformists and the
hardliners - both factions are in agreement on economic issues. Both factions
are hardliners with respect to economic policy toward the US.
Despite
what some commentators in the US believe, the reformist political faction
around Premier Wen Jiabao, including some of China's top billionaires, wants to
protect their economic interests and thus strongly resist the appreciation of
China's currency. In this respect, they are supported by the hardliners against
political reform around Party Secretary and Chinese President Hu Jintao, who
also want to protect their vested interests.
Despite
this, I believe the majority in the party advocates compromise on the exchange
rate and measures to expand the domestic market inside of China So, for the
moment, there is a standoff.
Political
reform rhetoric vs. reality
Gardels:
Premier Wen Jiabao of late, in Shenzhen and on CNN, has been talking up
political reform. He's said things like "the people's wishes and needs for
democracy and freedom are irresistible," that "freedom of speech is
indispensable for any country," and that "without the safeguard of
political reform, the fruits of economic reform would be lost."
Surely,
this cannot be pure rhetoric and must mean something. Is the reform faction in
the party gaining strength?
Wei:
Premier Wen is a cautious, calculating, and seasoned politician. He does not
like to stir up conflict. He has managed to thrive inside the party despite the
fact that, back in 1989, he accompanied then-party chief Zhao Ziyang to
Tiananmen Square to meet with the students on a hunger strike. Yet, he wasn't
punished and has risen to his current position.
It
seems the custom in recent years within the Communist Party is to speak about
reform when you are just about to exit the political arena. Speaking out when
exiting power is really part of a bargain to maintain the status of his faction
and improve his image among the people.
Reformers
aren't mainstream within the party
Besides
Wen Jiabao, there are others inside the party who are more interested in
political reform. Unlike what most Westerners think, they are a group of people
who have handsomely profited from the current system, and they are motivated to
protect their gains. At the same time, they know the Communist Party will have
a hard time maintaining one-party autocracy in the times ahead. So, they
advocate "peaceful evolution." They even formed an official faction
last year.
But
these political reformers are not the mainstream within the party. The
mainstream today consists of those officials who have not yet made enough money
for themselves and thus want to keep the current political structure intact as
long as possible. They are not for political reform because they suspect that
if the "mob" is ever empowered, they will not forgive the party.
Since international pressure on human rights in China is so weak these days,
this is the absolute majority in control of decision-making in the party today.
Gardels:
Premier Wen was saying these things about political reform in the lead-up to
the party central committee meeting. Then, in the middle of the process, Liu
Xiaobo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Will this cause a reaction against
political reform?
What
do you think will be Liu Xiaobo's fate? Will he be expelled like you were?
Reactions
over Liu Xiaobo hurt reforms
Wei:
For a Chinese dissident to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize is extremely
embarrassing for the hardliners within the Communist Party. It is a great
encouragement to the reformers. Certainly, it will intensify the struggle
between the two.
Given
the current balance of power, however, the reformers will lose to the
hardliners because those in the middle, feeling humiliated and insulted by this
act of the West, will react even more strongly against reform measures.
Clearly, the time of the reformers has not yet come.
Also,
given Liu Xiaobo's more than two decades of cooperation with the Chinese
government, the regime will exploit his status as a moderate to guide people to
accept a more cooperative and less confrontational tone against the tyranny of
the Communist Party. This will reduce the pressure on the party to change.
It
will maintain its rule while people beg for reform.
The
West now bows to China
No
doubt the large Western companies will welcome this since they believe it will
not affect their profits in China and maintain stability. In this they are
mistaken.
What
we will see is a replay of the failure of constitutional reform at the end of
the Qing Dynasty. When the opportunities for peaceful evolution are lost, it
will mean another revolution.
For
now, as the world's second-largest economy, China is very confident. For this
reason it is likely the regime will release Liu Xiaobo or deport him - not
because of Western pressure, which was the case when I was deported, but
because now the West bows to China and it will do what suits it best.
Wei
Jingsheng, one of China's most prominent dissidents exiled abroad, was
sentenced to 15 years in prison in 1979 when he called on Deng Xiaoping to
implement the "fifth modernization" - democracy. He was released from
prison in 1997 under pressure from then-US President Bill Clinton and deported
to the United States.
(c)
2010 Global Viewpoint Network/Tribune Media Services. Hosted online by The
Christian Science Monitor.
Original
link:
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Global-Viewpoint/2010/1019/Blocking-peaceful-evolution-will-lead-to-instability-in-China
and
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/wei-jingsheng-blocking-pe_b_768579.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A578-W346
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号：A578-W346
Release
Date: October 19, 2010
发布日：2010年10月19日
Topic:
Blocking 'peaceful evolution' will lead to instability in China (The Christian
Science Monitor Publishes Nathan Gardels' Interview of Wei Jingsheng)
标题：阻挡“和平演变”将导致中国的不稳定（基督教科学箴言报发表嘎岱尔对魏京生的采访）
Original
Language Version: English (English at beginning, Chinese version at the end)
此号以英文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-10/CSMonitor101019WeiJSonCCP17th5A578-W346.htm
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阻挡“和平演变”将导致中国的不稳定
-- 基督教科学箴言报（及哈菲英顿邮报）
魏京生，流亡海外的中国最著名的持不同政见者之一，讨论中共内部的变化、政治和经济改革的可能、刘晓波诺贝尔和平奖的影响，以及西方对中国的诚惶诚恐。
二〇一〇年十月十九日
魏京生，现居美国的中国最杰出的持不同政见者之一，在周一接受“全球观点”编辑奈森﹒嘎岱尔的采访。
嘎岱尔：中共中央委员会刚结束它的五中全会。习近平副主席晋升的重要性是什么？
本次会议还有什么值得世界关注的？
魏京生：通过任命习近平为中共中央军事委员会副主席，可以说中共中央将习近平定为继胡锦涛之后的下一任中共总书记。这意味着什么？意味着党内的斗争放松了一些。
习近平曾任厦门市市长（1985至1988年），官至福建省长（至2002年），浙江省省委书记（至2007年），及上海市委书记。所有这些地方都属于经济蓬勃发展的沿海地区。2009年，他主管党内一个压制自由知识分子和非政府组织以及进一步限制互联网上敏感政治话题的小组。
__ __ __
对美强硬的经济政策
这次五中全会的第二大问题就是经济发展计划，如何顶住由于中国的巨额顺差而引起的美国要求人民币升值的压力及相关的贸易战的风险。
在中国之外很少了解的情况是，虽然目前中共内部的决策层在政治上有改革和强硬的区别，但两派在经济问题上是一致的。就针对美国的经济政策而言，这两派都是强硬派。
与美国的一些评论员所以为的不同，以温家宝为代表的政治上的改革派希望保护自己的经济利益，所以会极力抵制以人民币升值为先导的经济改革。在这一点上，他们得到以中共总书记和国家主席胡锦涛为代表的既得利益者中的政治强硬派的支持。
尽管如此，我认为，考虑国家利益和党的生存的党内人物占多数，会主张在汇率上妥协，并采取措施扩大国内市场。目前，双方处于对峙状态。
__ __ __
政治改革的词藻与现实
嘎岱尔：国务院总理温家宝最近在深圳和美国有线新闻网CNN，一直大谈政治改革。他说：“人民对自由民主的渴望不可阻挡”，又说“言论自由在任何国家都是必不可少的”，以及“没有政治体制改革的保障，经济体制改革的成果就会得而复失。”
当然，这不可能是纯粹的修辞，必须意味着什么。是党内的改革派在发展壮大吗？
魏京生：温家宝是个谨小慎微、算计老到的政客，而不是那种喜欢挑起争端的政客。尽管事实上在1989年，他陪同当时的党总书记赵紫阳到天安门广场看望绝食的学生，但他还是没有受到惩罚，并在这之后升迁到他目前的地位。
这些年来，中共内部的习惯是，在即将退出政治舞台之前说些改革的话。在即将离职前讲出这些，既便于向当权者讨价还价，为自己的派系成员争取保留一些权力地位，又顺便改善了他在人民群众里的形象。
__ __ __
改革者不属于中共的主流
除了温家宝，党内的确有一派对政治改革更感兴趣。和大多数西方人想象的不一样，他们是从现行制度里即得利益集团内的一些人，出于保护自己的利益。与此同时，他们也看到了共产党即将维持不了一党专制的前景。因此，他们主张“和平演变。”他们甚至在去年正式形成了派别。
但这些支持政改者不是党内掌权的主流，现在掌权的主流是那些还没赚够钱、因而要保持目前的政治结构不变的官员。他们不相信政治改革，因为他们担心如果“暴民”一旦有了权力，就不会原谅共产党。由于现时针对中国人权的国际压力很弱，他们这一顽固派在决策层里占有绝对多数。
嘎岱尔：国务院总理温家宝关于政治改革的这些话，是在这次中共中央会议之前。之中，刘晓波被授予诺贝尔和平奖。这会导致对政治改革的反对吗？
你觉得刘晓波的命运将如何？他会像你那样被驱逐出境？
__ __ __
就刘晓波的反应将伤害改革
魏京生：中国的异议人士获得和平奖，对中共里的顽固派是一个极大的羞辱，但对改革派是个极大的鼓舞。当然，双方的争斗会更加激烈。
按现在的格局看，最终应该是改革派失败。因为中间派会为了眼前的困难和羞辱而拒绝接受改革派的建议。显然，改革者的时机尚未到来。
此外，刘晓波作为二十多年来一直与中国政府合作的人物，当局会像过去一样利用他的温和，来引导人们接受与中共暴政的合作，降低对抗中共暴政的调子。这将减轻对中共的压力。
当人们向当局乞讨政治改革之时，中共将保持它的执政。
__ __ __
现在的西方对中国鞠躬
毫无疑问，西方大公司将对此表示欢迎，因为他们相信这样就不会影响他们在中国的利润并能保持稳定。在这一点上，他们错了。
我们将看到的是清朝末年失败了的宪政改革的重演。当和平演变的机会丧失时，另一场革命就出现了。
现在，作为世界第二大经济体，中国很有信心。因此，他们不会抵制释放刘晓波或驱逐他-不是出于当年驱逐我时的西方压力，而是因为现在的西方对中共鞠躬弯腰，中共想怎么做就怎么做。
__ __ __
魏京生是中国最杰出的海外流亡的异议人士之一。由于他对邓小平呼吁实施“第五个现代化” - 民主，在1979年被判处15年徒刑。1997年在当时的美国总统比尔﹒克林顿的压力下，他从监狱里被释放并被驱逐到美国 。
(c)
2010年全球观点网络/论坛媒体服务。基督教科学箴言报网上主持。
原文出处：
http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Global-Viewpoint/2010/1019/Blocking-peaceful-evolution-will-lead-to-instability-in-China
及
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-gardels/wei-jingsheng-blocking-pe_b_768579.html
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