Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A580-W348
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A580-W348
Release
Date: October 24, 2010
发布日：2010年10月24日
Topic:
What Do We Learn From the Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th Central Committee
of the Chinese Communist Party? -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 中共十七届五中全会提供了什么信息 -- 魏京生
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What
Do We Learn From the Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th Central Committee of the
Chinese Communist Party?
--
by Wei Jingsheng
The
just-concluded Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th Central Committee of the
Chinese Communist Party received broad attention by both Chinese and foreign
media. This attention is because
in this session, in addition to traditional topics of the upcoming five-year
plan, three very difficult topics of greater interest to us were discussed.
One
of these topics was the successor issue.
In an authoritarian system, this topic grabs more people's attention
than does the election in the US.
In a democratic country like the United States, the basic state policy
does not change much when there is a new president. The most effective policies will not change. That is because all policies draw their
legal basis from the US Congress.
The president and president's administration traditionally only carry
out the law, instead of make the law.
Thus, the change and development of the country follows a smooth orbit,
instead of a non-stopping turmoil of ups and downs.
But
China's situation is different.
Even the common people are very concerned about politics. Why? Because historical experience tells us that a small number
of people makes policy and law. A new official always light three big piles of
fires to make his name. These
fires often end up burning people's interests. The ideals of individual poor people differ only a little
bit, yet the policy changes so much that is hard to be recognized. Nowadays, more and more Westerners are
dealing with the Chinese so they too are concerned about changes of the top
leaders in the Chinese Communist regime.
The
second unusual issue is the rumor of political reform. During the previous two months, Premier
Wen Jiabao and a number of media made a hubbub about political reform on a
large scale, and made it sound real.
Indeed, it did make a number of myopic folks dance for joy, becoming
excited like fools. They thought
the time was ripe to interact with the Communist Party with "kind
hearts", and that wolves with criminal intent would finally turn
themselves into vegetarians.
The
third unusual topic was even more difficult. That is that the huge U.S. trade
deficit with China has affected the global economic recovery. The United States and Europe are not
going to be delayed any longer in their demand for currency reform. China's economic development strategy
is facing a crossroads. Yet, the
communist leaders have their disputes and no clear conclusion has emerged. This issue is what the international
community is more concerned about.
The
succession issue was solved smoothly to people's surprise. Initially, this issue was very
difficult to solve as the two factions refused to give up. According to common practice, it should
have been resolved last year.
However, then the result was almost a fight, so it was expected it would
be hard to solve smoothly this year. Yet, it became the only real solution
among all the problems this time.
The
reason behind this solution is that both the cliques of Hu Jintao and Wen
Jiabao are faced with the two other more serious problems, the political reform
and economic problem. On these two
issues they both are minorities within the Communist Party. They both need allies and do not want
to head into a fierce struggle within the Communist Party. So Xi Jinping could smoothly gain the
qualification of successor. This
result is the what we often see in politics - when the sandpiper and clam fight
against each other, the fisherman gets them both - the third party benefits
from the fight of the two. Yet,
the two other issues did not go smoothly.
Political
reform is a big problem. The
communist regime is in a precarious position. This is a fact that most people can see. But, the responses to face this fact
are not all the same. I remember a
few years ago there was a group of scholars who hyped the "mob
politics" on a large scale and denounced the people as their resistance
got stronger and stronger. These
scholars were attempting to lead public opinion by suppressing the mood of
resistance. However, they were not
very successful.
Essentially
their opinion was "peace, rationality, non-violence", in an effort to
make "positive interaction" with the Communist regime. But, the people who are forced into a
corner without choice will not accept that theory. When the very survival of people is even an issue, with the
Communist Party's position very clear throughout, how can one deceive the
people in broad daylight? So, the
persons with a breadth of vision within the ruling class came to a conclusion:
without following the will of the people to reform into a Western-style
democratic system, it is impossible to solve all existing problems in
China. In chaos, the people
in the ruling class would be the victims of squaring accounts.
Instead
of being victims after a revolution, it is better to walk on the road of reform
following law via a means of peaceful evolution. This road would save the lives and net worth of these
people. This thinking has caused a
number of economic, political, and culturally successful people to form a political
group that is now called the reformer faction within the Chinese Communist
Party. Their motivation is
clear: in order to smoothly
protect their property and reputation from deadly violation, only political
reform can solve the current chaos.
However,
these people are not the mainstream in the bureaucratic class. The present high-rank officials and
their relatives who have not made enough money, or do not believe that the
common people will let the leaders of the Communist Party go free without
revenge. They are the mainstream
with absolute advantage both in numbers and actual strength of power. Hu Jintao is their chief
representative, and the successor Xi Jinping is trying his best to play the
chief representative. So, while
political reformers have the support of the people and public opinion, they
cannot change the situation. Their
own weak will also means they will never become the majority.
Then
there is the other most important issue, the reform of the economic
system. Should the Party continue
to harm the Chinese people, as well as endanger the world economy, by the so-called
"Chinese model"? Or
should China walk towards a true and fair market economy? This discussion results from the
Western countries attempting to force revaluation of the Chinese currency
RenMinBi. On this issue, political
reformers and conservatives are on the same side, because they both have vested
interest in the existing system.
In
other words, the existing unfair system is the basic condition for them to gain
economic interest. Together with
the Western capitalists, they strongly resist the appreciation of the RenMinBi,
firmly resist fair international trade, resolutely resist the reform of the
so-called "China model," and firmly wish to prevent a normal growth
of the consumer market for the ordinary Chinese people. Only the "China model" and the
political tyranny could guarantee them to continuously earn excess
profits. Throughout the United
States, the whole country wants sanctions against China's unfair trade, only
the United States Chamber of Commerce is the staunch ally of the Chinese government. They are protecting their opportunity
to share the excess profits.
However,
within the Chinese Communist Party there is still a very powerful force
promoting reform of the economic system.
Some are concerned about the living conditions of ordinary people, some
are concerned about sustainable economic development, and some are wondering if
the Chinese Communist regime could be maintained. After all, being against the world and also against their
own people violates a taboo of military strategists since ancient times. Violating this taboo will for
sure bring a doomed fate.
No
matter from what point of view, it ultimately comes down to the reform of the
irrational economic system. This
is where the Chinese people's interests are, but also are the needs of the
global economic recovery. Global
trends are hard to stop. The
alliance of Chinese and foreign capitalists alone, after all, ultimately will
not work in the current world.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101021CCP17th5.mp3
(Written
and recorded on October 21, 2010.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A580-W348
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A580-W348
Release
Date: October 24, 2010
发布日：2010年10月24日
Topic:
What Do We Learn From the Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th Central Committee
of the Chinese Communist Party? -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 中共十七届五中全会提供了什么信息 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-10/WeiJS101024CCP17th5A580-W348.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
中共十七届五中全会提供了什么信息
-- 魏京生
刚刚结束的中共十七届代表大会第五次中央委员会全体会议,是被中外媒体广泛关注的一次会议。因为这一次的五中全会，除了要讨论传统话题第几个五年计划之外，还有三个很艰难的话题，反而引起了大家更大的兴趣。
一个话题是接班人的问题。这个话题在专制体制下，比美国大选更牵动人心。美国这样的民主国家，换总统对基本国策的影响非常小,大多数被证明是行之有效的政策都不会改变。因为所有的政策都有国会的法律依据，总统和行政机构是执行法律的，不是制定法律的。这就使国家的变化和发展循着平稳的轨道运行，不会大起大落，动荡不停。
中国的情况就不同了。就连普通的老百姓都很关心政治。为什么呢？因为历史的经验告诉大家，政策和法律是少数人定的。新官上任三把火往往是烧向老百姓的利益。个别人的想法差那么一点点，政策就不知道改成什么样子了。现在西方人和中国打交道越来越多，所以他们也一样关心中国最高领导人的变动。
第二个问题就是政治改革的谣言。前两个月温家宝和一批媒体大肆炒作政治体制改革，说得就像真的似的。也确实让一批老花眼高兴得手舞足蹈，像打了鸡血一样兴奋。以为和共产党良性互动的时机成熟了，狼子野心也可以吃素了。
第三个问题更棘手。就是巨额的中美贸易逆差，已经影响到全球的经济复苏。美国和欧洲都不打算再拖延下去了。中国的经济发展战略面临着十字路口。可是大家又争执不下，无法做出明确的结论。这也是国际社会更加关心的问题。
接班人的问题出乎人们的意料平稳的解决了。这个问题本来十分棘手，两派互不相让。本来，按常规在去年就应该解决，结果差一点就大打出手，预计拖到今年也不会顺顺利利的解决。结果倒成为真正解决了的唯一的问题。
究其原因，是因为胡、温两个集团都面临着另外两个更严重的问题，就是经济问题和政治改革的问题。在这两个问题上他们在党内都是少数。都需要争取同盟军，都不希望纠缠到激烈的党内斗争中去。所以习近平能够顺利地拿下接班人的资格。这就是政治中常常会出现的鹬蚌相争，渔翁得利的局面。可以算半个问题。下边的两个问题就不那么顺利了。
首先是政治改革的问题。这是个大难题。中共的政权风雨飘摇，这是大多数人都能看得见的事实。面对这个事实的反应就不完全一样了。前几年我还记得有一批文人大肆炒作什么“暴民政治”。痛斥越演越烈的人民反抗。试图从舆论上帮助统治阶级压制反抗的情绪。不过，他们很不成功。
你尽管造你的和平、理性、非暴力，与官府良性互动的舆论。可是那些被逼无奈的老百姓没办法接收你这套理论。人家的生存都成了问题，共产党的立场又十分地清楚。光天化日之下你怎么骗得了人呢？于是统治阶级内部的有识之士得出了一个结论：不顺应民意改革成为西方式的民主制度，就不可能解决中国现有的一切问题：天下就要大乱，自己也难免遭到清算。
与其革命之后遭到清算，不如和平演变走法制下改革的道路。这可以保住大家的身家性命。这就使一批经济、政治、文化上的成功人士，自动地结成了一个政治派别也就是现在所谓的党内改革派。他们的动机十分清楚，就是只有政治体制的改革才能解决现在的混乱局面，才能平稳地保护他们的财产名誉等等不受到致命的侵犯。
但他们在官僚阶层里不是主流派。那些现任的官员及其亲属，属于还没赚够的，或者不相信老百姓会放过共产党的那一群。他们才是人数和实力上都占绝对优势的主流派。胡锦涛是他们的总代表，接班人习近平正在努力扮演他们的总代表。所以，虽然政治改革派得到舆论和人民的支持，但改变不了局面。他们天生的软骨病也使得他们永远不会成为多数派。
再就是第三个最重要的问题，经济体制改革的问题。是继续危害中国人民也危害了全世界经济的所谓的中国模式呢？还是走向真正的、公平的市场经济呢？这就是西方国家迫使人民币升值引起的经济体制改革的问题。在这个问题上，政治改革派和保守派的立场是一致的。因为他们都是现存体制的既得利益者。
换句话说，就是现存的不公平的体制，是他们获取经济利益的基本条件。他们和西方的资本家一起坚决抵制人民币升值，坚决抵制公平的国际贸易，坚决抵制改革所谓的“中国模式”。坚决不能让中国人民的消费市场有正常的增长。只有这个“中国模式”和专制的政治，才能保证他们继续赚取超额的利润。在美国全国上下都要制裁中国的不公平贸易的时候，只有美国的商会是中国政府的坚定盟友。他们保护的是自己分享超额利润的机会。
但是在中共内部还是有很强大的势力在推动经济体制的改革。有些是关心普通人民的生存状况，有些是关心经济的可持续发展，有些是关心中共政权能否维持下去。毕竟和全世界作对，又和自己的人民作对，犯了自古兵家之大忌。面临的是必败的命运。
无论从什么角度出发，最终都归结到了改革不合理的经济体制。这既是中国人民的利益所在，也是全球经济复苏的需要。正所谓世界潮流，很难阻挡。仅仅靠中外资本家的联盟，毕竟在现在的世界上最终还是行不通的。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101021CCP17th5.mp3
（撰写并录音于2010年10月21日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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