Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A585-W353
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A585-W353
Release
Date: November 14, 2010
发布日：2010年11月14日
Topic:
The G20 Summit's Influence on China -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 二十国峰会对中国的影响 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
Note:
Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese
parts of this release. If this
mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request
for special delivery to us or visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-11/WeiJS101114G20SKoreaA585-W353.htm which
contains identical information.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
The
G20 Summit's Influence on China
--
Wei Jingsheng
The
so-called G-20 Summit opened in Seoul, the Capitol of South Korea on Nov.
11. The expectation for this
meeting by the international society was very high, because it was considered
as an important opportunity to solve the current economic crisis. Almost all the major news media in the
world gave their unanimous pre-summit assessment of the need to solve the issue
of the Chinese currency RMB.
Otherwise, the summit would be considered as a failure.
Why
is the RMB exchange rate so important? Why is this issue related to the recovery of the
global economy? To answer
these questions, we need to start from the reasons for the global economic
recession. Now we all see
the global economic recession started from the economic recession in the United
States and Europe. The economic
recession in developed countries started from the huge trade deficit year after
year. There are many reasons for
this huge trade deficit, but two stand out. One is cheap labor; the other is that the Chinese currency
RMB is far lower than the market price.
Cheap
labor causes increased competition.
This is acceptable to all.
With the accumulation of capital and the increase of skill levels, the
labor costs should also gradually increase. Gradually, the whole society would enjoy the fruits of
economic growth and the extraordinary competitive advantages would become more
balanced. This situation is not
only a normal and sustainable development model, but also a model which is conducive
to global economic development.
Brazil,
India, and a number of developing countries use this type of development
model. Therefore, while their
economy develops, their national standard of living also grows, synchronized to
expand the domestic market. This
development is a positive factor for the economies of these developing
countries. We could call this is a
win-win development model.
However,
this development model also has drawbacks. The disadvantage is that wages increase in synchrony with
the economy, which is not favored for big capitalists to make excess profits,
and is not favored for the growth of billionaires. As a government for the big capitalists using "the few
to get rich first" model, the Chinese government under the Chinese
Communist Party's leadership took a totally different path: the so-called "China model."
The
"China Model" is to maintain the lowest possible labor costs and not
to develop the domestic market, while maintaining economic development. This approach sacrifices the national
income of the people in an effort to guarantee the price gap with the
international market, and so create the best conditions for the big
capitalists. One cannot reach such
a goal by simply suppressing the labor movement. That is because the market will automatically adjust the
exchange rate along with the economic development, thus resulting in the rise
of real wages. That is to say, if
the government does not interfere with the rising of the Chinese currency RMB,
people's real purchasing power will keep rising. The benefits created by economic growth will automatically
be delivered to the pockets of every member of society as it balances.
But
this way will not only result in the pockets of the big capitalists shrinking
some, but also make it more difficult to buy major Western enterprises. To unite with the big capitalists in
the world in an effort to defend the dictatorial regime of the Chinese
Communist Party has become basic national policy of the Communist Party. Thus, the policy of keeping a super-low
price for the RMB by manipulating the exchange rates comes into play. This is the so-called the "China
model." By the way, this
policy is not the invention of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, but a policy started
all way back in the Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang era.
This
policy of manipulating the RMB price is very effective. In particular, after China obtained
free export rights, or say that after it received the so-called most favored
nation treatment, a large number of low-quality goods flooded the developed
countries markets with super low prices.
As it destroyed the industries of the Western countries, it did not
increase export to China, nor create a market for the superior industrial
products of the Western countries.
Therefore, naturally, the West's economy gradually declined, while
financial capital was in constant growth.
The result is the characteristic of this global economic crisis: as the
money seemed to be growing, the market has been rapidly shrinking. The big capitalists have their wealth
and numbers increased, while the number of the poor people is also rapidly
growing.
Due
to the lobbying of Western big business, the Western politicians have been
afraid to talk about this very obvious problem. However, the Western countries are democratic after all and
they have freedom of speech, and the ultimate decision-making power rests in
the hands of the people. In the
past decade, this serious problem has been discussed more and more by the
ordinary people and the media, to the extent that the politicians cannot avoid
it.
With
this year's U.S. mid-term elections as a turning point, the issue of the
Chinese currency RMB exchange rate resulted in a miserable defeat of the
Democratic Party. Finally, the
U.S. government felt compelled to address this fundamental issue which has a
serious impact on the global economy.
To Western politicians, campaign contributions are important, yet of
less importance and less direct than votes. Also while democracy does not guarantee the selection of the
most caring politician, it does ensure that the people can control the
politicians, can force the politicians to care more for the people. This is the reason that the Obama administration
has to seriously address the RMB exchange rate issue. In this situation, the Chinese Communist government's policy
of buying the Western big capitalists is not very useful.
Before
the mid-term elections in the United States, all sectors expected the defeat of
the Democratic Party. After the
election, the U.S. government immediately took measures to create a weaker
dollar. In the past, the Obama
administration has collaborated with the Chinese Communist government like a
two-man show. As it faced an
increased pressure of public opinion, it continued to send officials to China
for negotiations seeming to be very concerned about the RMB exchange rate
issue. Then, China's Premier Wen
Jiabao would pretend to be overbearing, thus the issue did not get solved. The result was that the big capitalists
of both China and the USA could continue to make big money, while the ordinary
people of both China and the USA have continued to be poor and the global
economic recession has continued.
Now,
the American people have forced the Obama administration to choose between
campaign contributions and votes.
All of a sudden, the U.S. government seems capable of working toward a
solution. Indeed, the RMB is in
the control of Premier Wen; but after all, control of international finance
remains in the United States. The
control of the Chinese Communist Party really is not as great as they staged in
the two-man show. Therefore, as
soon as the U.S. government started action, the dollar depreciated
immediately. Exports are expected
to increase immediately while imports are expected to reduce quickly, and
employment should increase rapidly.
A sensational French newspaper called it World War III. This time, it is not a nuclear war, but
the war of currency.
We
can already predict the outcome of this war. The still most powerful USA united with the majority of
countries will defeat the alliance of economic Fascists. These bumptious big capitalists in
China are absolutely not an opponent to Western democracy. The G20 meeting is the last negotiation
before the war. The United States
has laid out the battlefield: there will be an appreciation of the RMB if the
Chinese government is willing to negotiate; and there also will be an
appreciation of the RMB if it is not willing. However, the consequences of "with
negotiation" and "without negotiation" are totally different.
If
Chinese government takes the initiative to raise the value of the RMB, and
meanwhile opens up the import of domestic consumption, then the trade war
between China and the U.S. will subside, the global economy will start to
recover, and domestic inflation in China will rapidly subside. This trade balance would be of great
advantage without harm not to just China, but also the world. Of course, the wealth of the big
capitalists will shrink, while the gap between the rich and poor will
narrow. However, it is very likely
that Wen Jiabao will continue to resist this path.
The
result of his resistance is that while there will be a world war on currency,
countries will also begin to take measures of trade barriers. Then China's exports will decrease and
its economy will slow down while inflation continues until people cannot bear
any more. China itself will fall
into a civil strife. When it is no
good for the people, will it be good for the Communist Party?
I
hope those persons with breadth of vision inside the Chinese Communist Party
will think carefully with a cool and clear mind. Which is more important: the immediate wealth of the big
capitalists or the continued survival of the country?
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101111G20SKorea.mp3
(Written
and recorded on November 11, 2010.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
This
is a message from WeiJingSheng.org
The
Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are
dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help
in any means. We pledge solidarity
to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this
planet.
You
are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website
at: www.weijingsheng.org
Although
we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your
contribution as well. You may send
your articles, comments and opinions to: HCP@weijingsheng.org. Please remember, only in text files,
not in attachments.
For
website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web
master at: webmaster@Weijingsheng.org
To
find out more about us, please also visit our websites at:
www.WeiJingSheng.org
and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org
for
news and information for Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and human rights
and democracy movement as whole, especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.
You
may contact Ciping Huang at: HCP@Weijingsheng.org or
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-543-1538 Fax: 1-202-543-1539
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation's postal address is:
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA
You
are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in
learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply
reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process
your request.
*****************************************************************
中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A585-W353
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A585-W353
Release
Date: November 14, 2010
发布日：2010年11月14日
Topic:
The G20 Summit's Influence on China -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 二十国峰会对中国的影响 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-11/WeiJS101114G20SKoreaA585-W353.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
二十国峰会对中国的影响
-- 魏京生
被称为G20的二十国首脑会议，于十一月十一日在韩国的首都首尔市召开了。国际社会对这次的会议期望值很高，都认为这是解决目前面临的经济危机的一次重要的机会。世界主要的媒体几乎一致对这次峰会作出了预先的评估，就是必须解决人民币汇率的问题。否则，就被认为是失败。
人民币汇率问题为什么这么重要的呢？为什么这个问题关系到全球经济复苏呢？这要从全球经济衰退的原因说起。现在大家都看到了，全球经济衰退是从美国和欧洲的经济衰退开始的。发达国家的经济衰退是从连年巨额贸易逆差开始的。造成连年巨额贸易逆差的原因很多，但主要的原因有两个。一个是廉价劳动力，一个是人民币远远低于市场价格。
廉价劳动力造成竞争力上升。这个大家都可以接受。随着资本的积累，技术水平的上升，劳动力价格也逐步地上升。全社会逐渐享受到经济增长的成果，超常的竞争优势也逐渐趋于平衡。这不仅是正常的、可持续的发展模式，也是对全球经济发展有利的模式。
巴西、印度等一些发展中的国家采取的就是这个类型的发展模式。所以在经济发展的同时，国民的生活水平也在增长，国内市场同步地扩大。他们的发展对发达国家的经济也是一种有利因素。可以说，这是一种双赢的发展模式。
但是，这种发展模式也有缺点。这个缺点就是工资水平同步增长，不利于大资产阶级获取超额的利润，不利于亿万富翁的增长。作为让一部分人先富起来的大资产阶级的政府，中国共产党领导下的中国政府采取了完全不同的另一种发展模式，也就是所谓的“中国模式”。
这就是在经济发展的同时，保持尽可能低的劳动力价格，不发展国内市场。这是以牺牲全中国人民的收入来保证和国际市场之间的价格落差，为制造大资产阶级创造最佳条件。为了达到这个目的，仅仅靠镇压工人运动是不够的。因为市场会随着经济发展自动调整汇率，使得实际工资水平不断上升。也就是说，如果政府不加干预，随着人民币水平的不断上升，人民的实际购买力也会不断地上升。经济增长所创造的利益，会自动地平衡到每一个社会成员的腰包里。
但是这样一来，大资产阶级的腰包就会缩小一些，也无法收买西方的大企业了。联合全世界大资产阶级保卫专制政权，这是中国共产党的基本国策。于是，操控汇率，保持人民币的超低价格的政策就出炉了。这就是所谓的“中国模式”。顺便说说，这个政策不是江泽民、胡锦涛的发明，这是在邓小平、赵紫阳的时代就开始的政策。
这个操控人民币价格的政策非常有效。特别是在获得向发达国家的自由出口权，也就是所谓的最惠国待遇之后，大量的劣质但价格超低的商品涌入发达国家市场。在消灭了西方国家工业的同时，并没有增加中国的进口，没有给西方国家的优势产业创造市场。所以，西方国家的经济必然逐渐地衰退，而金融资本却在不断地增长。这就是这次全球经济危机的特点：钱好像在增长，而市场却在迅速地萎缩。大资产阶级增加了他们的财富和人数，穷人的数量也在迅猛的增长。
在西方大企业的游说之下，西方的政客们一直都不敢谈论这个十分明显的问题。但是，西方毕竟是民主国家，毕竟有言论自由，毕竟是最终的决策权掌握在老百姓的手中。十年来，这个严重的问题在普通百姓和媒体中谈论得越来越多，多到了政客们无法回避的程度。
以美国今年的中期选举为转折点，人民币汇率问题使得执政的民主党惨败。美国政府不得不出面解决这个影响到全球经济的根本问题了。对政客们来说，捐款重要，但不如选票更重要，更直接。民主不保证能选出最爱民的政治家，但是保证人民可以控制政治家，可以强迫你爱民。这就是奥巴马政府不得不认真解决人民币汇率问题的原因。在这个形势下，中共收买西方大资产阶级的政策已经没什么用了。
在这次美国中期选举之前，各界都已经预计到了民主党的惨败。在选举之后，美国政府立即采取措施制造美元贬值。过去，奥巴马政府是在和中共唱双簧。面对美国国内舆论越来越大的压力，不断地派个什么官员到中国去谈判，做个样子好像也很关心人民币汇率问题。然后就有中国的温家宝假装蛮横，问题就拖下来了。结果是：中美两国的大资产阶级就可以继续赚大钱；中美两国的老百姓就不得不继续贫困下去；全球经济也就继续衰退下去。
这次，老百姓逼迫奥巴马政府不得不在捐款和选票之间做出选择。美国政府就突然一下子变得有办法了。人民币控制在温家宝手里；可是国际金融毕竟还是控制在美国手里。中共的控制权并不是像双簧里表演的那样伟大。所以，美国政府一开始动作，美元就马上贬值；出口就马上增加；进口也预计会很快减少；就业必然很快增加。这就是法国报纸耸人听闻的说法：第三次世界大战。这不是核大战，是货币大战。
这场大战的胜负已经可以预测到了。实力仍然最强大的美国联合大多数国家必然战胜经济法西斯的联盟。中国那些自以为是的大资产阶级，绝对不是西方民主制度的对手。这次G20会议，就是大战前的最后一次谈判。美国已经摆开了战场，你谈也要升值，不谈也要升值。但是谈和不谈的后果会大不相同。
如果人民币主动升值，同时开放生活资料的进口，中美之间的贸易战就会平息，全球经济会开始复苏，中国国内的通货膨胀也会迅速地消退。这对中国，对世界都是有百利而无一害。当然，大资产阶级的财富会缩水，贫富差距会缩小。但是，估计温家宝还会继续抵抗。
抵抗的结果就是全球货币大战的同时，各国都开始采取贸易壁垒措施。中国的出口还是会减少；经济还是会降温；通货膨胀将继续下去，直到老百姓无法忍受的时候。中国自己会陷入一场内乱。对老百姓没什么好处时，对共产党会有好处吗？
希望中共内部的有识之士冷静地思考一下：是大资产阶级的财富更重要，还是这个国家继续生存下去更重要。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101111G20SKorea.mp3
（撰写并录音于2010年11月11日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
-----------------------------------------------------------------
魏京生基金会及中国民主运动海外联席会议以推动中国的人权与民主为己任。
我们欢迎任何形式的帮助与贡献。我们愿与世界上为人权与民主而奋斗的人们一起努力。
我们希望您能够帮助我们散发我们的资料。但请标明出处与我们的网址：www.weijingsheng.org
欢迎投稿（暂无稿费）或批评建议，请寄信箱： HCP@WEIJINGSHENG.ORG
魏京生基金会通讯地址：
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA
电话： 1-202-543-1538 传真：1-202-543-1539
魏京生基金会网址：WWW.weijingsheng.org
中国民主运动海外联席会议及中国团结工会的网址为：www.ChinaLaborUnion.org
阁下之所以收到本信，是因为阁下以前曾表示有兴趣了解魏京生先生和中国民主运动。
倘若阁下希望不再收到类似信息，请回复本信并用 unsubscribe 作为主题(Subject)。