Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A588-W356
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A588-W356
Release
Date: December 3, 2010
发布日：2010年12月3日
Topic:
Korean Crisis (part 1) -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《朝韩危机》之一 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
Note:
Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese
parts of this release. If this
mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request
for special delivery to us or visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-12/WeiJS101203KoreanCrisis1A588-W356.htm which
contains identical information.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Korean
Crisis (part 1)
--
Wei Jingsheng
These
days have been really exciting. On
November 23, North Korea shelled a South Korean island, resulting in military
and civilian casualties. In
addition, international stock markets joined in with a fall, as if the economy
is not stable either. Why are
people so sensitive about it? What
do North Korea and South Korea want to do? What do the countries behind them, China and the United
States, want to do? These are the issues people are very concerned about, and
also the reason for the stock market turmoil.
The
stock market trouble is associated with the rapid and strong response from the
United States: it immediately decided to send an aircraft carrier to
participate in joint military exercises with South Korea in the Yellow Sea. In the previous few months, when the
United States planned to send the aircraft carrier to participate in joint
military exercises there, the Chinese government shouted loudly and
overreacted. So in an effort to
give the Chinese government some face, the US canceled the plan twice. However, this time the US took
immediate response to the provocation by the North Koreans. This action makes people fear that indeed
a war may break out. A war will
directly affect international trade, an important reason for the stock market
fell.
Is
war likely then? In the current
situation, the possibility of war is very small. The reason for the US to react
rapidly is that North Korea continuously took provocative actions under the
direction of the Chinese Communist Party.
It took the tolerance of the United States and South Korea as a
weakness. If the tolerance policy
continued, it would encourage North Korea to make more bold abuses. Therefore, the correct approach was to
end the policy of tolerance. Or
using the words of the ordinary people: to hit back in an effort to stop the
aggression. The strength of the
hit will depend on the determination of the US President, as well as the
sensibility of Beijing and Pyongyang.
It is associated with what kind of purpose Beijing has.
If
it is indeed as many observers have estimated, i.e. to make an issue for the
purpose of making the U.S. return to the negotiation table, then the events
will stop at an adequate time.
People will dress up to present themselves at the negotiation table in
an effort to deceive the public opinion of the world. Then, in the end, people will do whatever they like. This is exactly what many Western
observers and Western governments estimated. So, as soon as North Korea shelled
the South Korea island, there were some major Western governments issuing
statements demanding the continuity of the six-party talks. However, obviously China, the USA, and
both Koreas are not so interested.
That is because these six-party talks have long been considered a trick
to deceive public opinion. In this
scam, North Korea and China won their privilege of abuse at any time. The politicians of the U.S. and South
Korea gain advantages of not offending the Chinese government, yet could
explain themselves well to their own people. So everyone gets what they wanted, despite a lack of
sincerity to really solve the problem.
This time, major Western governments reacted so quickly, exactly
reflecting that they are so used to the routines of this trick, and without
thinking, they knew what the U.S. would do.
However,
this time the behavior of the Chinese government seems not that simple. It was not just to force the United
States to the negotiation table in exchange for favors in trade and other
conditions. Trade is a big
problem; it is an issue that American politics can no longer retreat from. In America's own interests, it is a
life-threatening issue. The United
States cannot compromise, even if it has to give up South Korea. Clearly, trying to solve economic
problems through negotiation on Korea issue is not realistic. Also, economic problems in China are
dealt with by premier Wen Jiabao, not President Hu Jintao, whose
Secretary-General of the Chinese Communist Party title enable him the highest
power. For President Hu to make
such a big trouble for the others, he must have a reason. Hu does not have that much magnanimity.
So
what is the more important purpose for President Hu Jintao? To Hu Jintao, it is more important to
maintain the system of the communist countries, or say to keep the communist
regime. To make economic
concessions to the United States will have good results for China also. Although a minority of the rich people
will lose their opportunity for making big money, it is really not the most
terrible thing. For Hu, this is
something that can be let go, with useful results. Increasing the income of the Chinese people can ease the
conflict between officials and the public, so it may help just to let things go
along, instead of putting in an effort for nothing. Therefore, the non-economic matters that President Hu Jintao
deals with will not be serving the purpose of Premier Wen Jiabao. Hu has his own purposes, which are
political purposes.
Then,
to the Chinese Communist Party, what is the biggest and most recent political
problem associated with North Korea?
It is the shift of power in the Kim Jong Il regime. Even for Kim Jong Il to take over from
his father Kim Il Sung. it was already quite difficult. Before Kim Jong Il took over his power,
he had already groomed his own faction for the succession; yet, he barely made
it through. The son of Kim Jong Il
in succession apparently is not prepared for that, and Kim Jong Il's time is running
out. In order to continue Kim's
dynasty in North Korea, not long ago Kim Jong Il had to make an appeal to
Beijing in person. Shortly after
there was the message: the Chinese army will be sent and stationed in Pyongyang
in an effort to assist Kim Jong Il to complete the shift of power. Because this news did not have the
support of evidence, it did not receive attention from the news media. To the most, it was regarded only as a
possibility.
But,
from the development of the situation, if Kim Jong Il insists his son inherit
his leadership yet fails, North Korea will fall into unrest. Then, with the support from the United
States. South Korea will be bound to intervene in North Korean affairs. The consequence is that North Korea
would no longer be a communist regime, and likely become reunified with South
Korea to be part of a democratic country.
This result will not be accepted by the head of the Chinese Communist
Party Hu Jintao and his faction.
The democratization of North Korea would likely bring a domino chain
reaction, endangering the communist regime in Beijing. It is exactly for this reason, year
after year, Beijing has been providing North Korea with 90% of its needed
energy, 80% of its food, and a lot of foreign currency. Indeed, they are in a close
relationship, like the relationship between Europe and the United States. For the United States, besides its own
territories, the least likely land it would give up would be in Europe. For Communist China, besides its own
territories, the country it will not give up is North Korea. Examining what Hu Jintao has said in the
past, this stand is very clear.
Therefore,
to ensure a smooth shift of power in North Korea and to stabilize the situation
is the biggest current goal for the Chinese Communist Party. It will try anything it can to
accomplish this, while Kim Jong Il will cooperate fully due to his own
interests. Observing the affairs
in North Korea from this angle will help people to see the true meanings of
each party, as well as to estimate the consequences of events. I will analysis these issues later.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101125KoreanCrisis1.mp3
(Written
on Nov. 25 and recorded on Nov. 26, 2010.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
This
is a message from WeiJingSheng.org
The
Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are
dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help
in any means. We pledge solidarity
to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this planet.
You
are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website
at: www.weijingsheng.org
Although
we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your
contribution as well. You may send
your articles, comments and opinions to: HCP@weijingsheng.org. Please remember, only in text files,
not in attachments.
For
website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web
master at: webmaster@Weijingsheng.org
To
find out more about us, please also visit our websites at:
www.WeiJingSheng.org
and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org
for
news and information for Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition and human rights
and democracy movement as whole, especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.
You
may contact Ciping Huang at: HCP@Weijingsheng.org or
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-543-1538 Fax: 1-202-543-1539
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation's postal address is:
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA
You
are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in
learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply
reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process
your request.
*****************************************************************
中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A588-W356
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A588-W356
Release
Date: December 3, 2010
发布日：2010年12月3日
Topic:
Korean Crisis (part 1) -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《朝韩危机》之一 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-12/WeiJS101203KoreanCrisis1A588-W356.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
《朝韩危机》之一
-- 魏京生
这几天可是真够热闹的。23号北朝鲜炮击了韩国的岛屿，造成了军人和平民的死伤。热闹还不仅仅如此。连国际股市也跟着凑热闹，来了个股市大跌。好像经济也不稳定了。为什么会如此敏感呢？北朝鲜和韩国究竟想干什么？他们背后的中国和美国究竟想干什么？这都是大家十分关心的问题，也是股市动荡的原因。
股市动荡，是因为美国这次反应迅速而且强烈：立即决定派遣航空母舰参加在黄海进行的美韩联合军事演习。前几个月，因为美国将派遣航空母舰参加联合军事演习，
中国政府大喊大叫反应过度。美国为了照顾中国政府的面子，两次取消了航空母舰参加联合军事演习的计划。这次针对北朝鲜的挑衅行为，立即做出反应。这让人们担心真的会打仗。战争的发生会直接影响到国际贸易。这是股市暴跌的重要原因。
那么是不是真的会打仗呢？按照现在的形势来看，打仗的可能性非常小。美国作出迅速反映而且比较强烈的原因，是北朝鲜在中共的指示下不断发出挑衅，把美国和韩国方面的容忍当作了软弱。如果仍然采取容忍的政策，就等于是在鼓励北朝鲜放胆胡作非为。因此正确的做法就是结束容忍的政策。用老百姓的大白话说：就是不得不给他们点颜色看看，否则就没完没了了。这种颜色会给到什么程度，既要看美国总统的决心，也要看北京和平壤是不是识相。这就牵涉到了北京的目的到底是什么。
如果像很多观察家们估计得那样，仅仅是为了闹点事好让美国回到谈判桌上来，那么事件就会适可而止。大家装装样子，再到谈判桌上来欺骗全球舆论。事情也就结束了，大家拍拍屁股该干什么就干什么去。很多西方的观察家和西方政府正是这么估计的。所以事情一出来，就有西方主要国家的政府忙着发声明，要求继续六方会谈。但是，显然中朝美韩四方都没有什么兴趣。因为六方会谈早就被认为是一场欺骗舆论的把戏。在这场骗局下，中朝两方获得了可以随时胡作非为的特权。美韩两国的政客获得了既可以不得罪中国又能向老百姓交待的好处。大家各得其所，都不想解决问题。这次西方主要国家的政府那么快就做出了反应，正说明他们对这套把戏太熟悉了，连想都不用想就知道美国会怎么作。
但是，这次中国政府的行为似乎不是那么简单。它不是仅仅为了把美国逼到谈判桌上来交换贸易等条件。那虽然也是个大难题，但那是美国政治已经不能再后退的难题。那是美国自己的利益，而且是性命攸关的大事。就是丢掉了韩国，美国也不能让步。想谈判解决经济难题显然很不现实。而且那是温家宝的难题，不是胡锦涛的难题。闹这么大动静就是为他人做嫁衣裳？胡锦涛没有这么大的肚量吧。
那么对胡锦涛来说什么目的更重要呢？维护共产党国家阵营的体系更重要，或者说保住共产党政权更重要。在经济上向美国让步，对中国也有好处。只是少数富人失去赚大钱的机会而已，不是要命的事情。这可以随它去，左右结果都差不多。提高国内人民的收入刚好可以缓解官民矛盾，不妨顺水推舟。何必做这种没有结果的无用功呢？所以胡锦涛主导的非经济事务不会为了温家宝作嫁衣裳，而是有他自己的目的，而且是政治目的。
那么，对中共来说，和北朝鲜有关的政治中最近的和最大的问题是什么呢？这就是金正日政权的交接班问题。金日成和金正日的父继子承，已经是相当困难了。金正日在接班前就培植好了自己的势力，才能在接班的问题上勉强过关。但金正日要继位的儿子显然还没有做好这样的准备，而金正日又显然日子不多了。为了能让他们的金家王朝继续下去，前些日子金正日不得不亲自求助于北京。之后就传出消息：中国军队将进驻平壤，协助金正日完成交接班。这个消息因为没有证据支持，不被媒体注意，最多也就是被当作了一种可能性而已。
但是从形势发展来推测，如果金正日坚持父继子承而又失败的话，北朝鲜必然会发生动乱。韩国在美国的支持下必然会介入北朝鲜事务。其后果就是北朝鲜不再是共产党政权，而且很可能和韩国实现统一，成为民主国家的一部分。这是作为共产党的胡锦涛和他的党所不能接受的事实。因为朝鲜的民主化很可能带来连锁反应，危及北京的共产党政权。也正是因为这个原因，北京才连年向北朝鲜提供了它所需要的能源的90%，粮食的80%，和大量的外汇。他们之间确实是唇齿相依的关系，就像欧洲和美国之间的关系一样。美国除了自己的本土之外，第一不可能放弃的就是欧洲。中国除了自己的领土之外，第一不可能放弃的就是北朝鲜。这从胡锦涛过去的言论中也可以看得十分清楚。
因此，保证北朝鲜顺利交接班，稳定北朝鲜的局势，是中共当前最大的目标。中共将竭尽全力地去做到这一点。而金正日也会全力配合胡锦涛，因为这也是他的利益之所在。从这个角度观察北朝鲜事务，才能看清楚各方动作的真正含义，也才能估计出事情发展的后果。我将为大家分析这些问题。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101125KoreanCrisis1.mp3
（撰写于2010年11月25日。录音于2010年11月26日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
-----------------------------------------------------------------
魏京生基金会及中国民主运动海外联席会议以推动中国的人权与民主为己任。
我们欢迎任何形式的帮助与贡献。我们愿与世界上为人权与民主而奋斗的人们一起努力。
我们希望您能够帮助我们散发我们的资料。但请标明出处与我们的网址：www.weijingsheng.org
欢迎投稿（暂无稿费）或批评建议，请寄信箱： HCP@WEIJINGSHENG.ORG
魏京生基金会通讯地址：
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA
电话： 1-202-543-1538 传真：1-202-543-1539
魏京生基金会网址：WWW.weijingsheng.org
中国民主运动海外联席会议及中国团结工会的网址为：www.ChinaLaborUnion.org
阁下之所以收到本信，是因为阁下以前曾表示有兴趣了解魏京生先生和中国民主运动。
倘若阁下希望不再收到类似信息，请回复本信并用 unsubscribe 作为主题(Subject)。