Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A589-W357
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A589-W357
Release
Date: December 4, 2010
发布日：2010年12月4日
Topic:
Korean Crisis (part 2) -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《朝韩危机》之二 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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Korean
Crisis (part 2)
--
Wei Jingsheng
So
what does Communist China need to do to ensure a safe shift of power for the
Kim Jong Il regime? Send a force
to supervise and prevent a possible coup at close range. Because Kim Jong Il's intended
successor faces several potential strong competitors, he will almost surely
face the risk of being abolished by coup.
After the coup, a new North Korean regime will face other
competitors. The struggle between
them will cause political instability.
More importantly, a weak new regime will seek aid from outside, most
likely from South Korea. The
result would be that North Korea becomes democratic gradually, and meanwhile
rapidly departs from the Communist camp.
This result is easy to estimate, and also the result that Communist
China is least willing to accept.
Therefore,
as the succession crisis rises in North Korea, sending an army to intervene
directly could cause completely different results. Since the Korean War, Chinese troops have not been stationed
in North Korea. Thus, Kim Il Sung
and his son's regime were not respecting every command of the Beijing
regime. When there were
significant differences between China and the Soviet Union, clearly, the Kim Il
Sung regime was not an ally of China.
This lesson promotes the Chinese Communist regime to seek opportunities
to send troops to North Korea once again to ensure its own interests. Finally, such an opportunity emerged
during the power shift of the Kim dynasty, with Kim Jong Il himself visiting
Beijing. However, things could not
be done too obviously and would need an adequate excuse. So once again tension was created. The more tension, the more adequate the
excuse. This is the reason for the
artillery fire to happen at this time, as well as the reason for North Korea's
very strong attitude afterward.
Some Western politicians want Beijing to restrain North Korea to calm
the situation. In fact, that is
just providing more good reason for Beijing's Communist regime to send troops
to North Korea.
What
would be the consequences if China were to send troops to North Korea? First, the selected successor of Kim
Jong Il will be positioned easily.
A coup will not occur or would be easily suppressed. However, the succession crisis in North
Korea will not end just because China sends troops. Kim Jong Il's successor does not have enough authority to
take over power; thus the power struggle will continue for a long time. Regardless whoever becomes the new
leader, the person will need the support of the foreign military stationed
there. The Chinese Communist
government will, perforce, become "the father of the emperor" to
North Korea. The Chinese have
enough political experience and historic tradition to carry this situation for
a long time. Soon, North Korea
will become a vassal of China. Not
only will the democratization of North Korea lose its opportunity; but also the
opportunity for unification with South Korea will be lost. Instead, the Chinese Communist regime
will have stabilized its own frontier.
Moreover, it will be get support from the nationalist forces in China,
which would be beneficial to the continuation of the Chinese Communist regime's
survival. This is the wishful
thinking motivating Beijing's intervention in Korean affairs.
More
than one hundred years ago in 1894, in order to maintain suzerainty in Korea,
the first Sino-Japanese War broke out.
Chinese troops suffered a crushing defeat, thus leading to the decline
of the Qing dynasty. So now, to
return China's influence to Korea is the ideal of nationalist fanatics in
China. If Hu Jintao is successful
this time, he will gain support from a large number of these nationalist
fanatics. It will not only
consolidate the rule of the Communist Party, but also strengthen the prestige
of President Hu Jintao himself, the most suitable outcome for the
"Communist Youth League" faction to fight for power within the
Chinese Communist Party. This is
the motive for years of operation in Korean affairs by Hu's Communist Youth
League faction.
However,
when the mantis stalks the cicada, the oriole is right behind. A turbulent North Korea will become a
major burden for China, not only financially, but also politically. Internally,
the various factions within the Chinese Communist Party will intervene in the
Korean affairs. Therefore, as a
result, North Korea will not be safe or sound. Instead, it will come and go with a lot of troubled times
ahead. As has happened in history
many times, when it is too embarrassing to do something in one's own country,
it is ok to do it in a subsidiary country. While there are still some rules and restraint for internal
fights within the Chinese Communist Party, the fight which is extended to North
Korea will become out of control.
Mirrored back, it will make this kind of uncontrolled and unrestrained
internal strife extend into the Chinese Communist Party itself. The result would be that the Chinese
Communists also lose control of the fight and eventually die out. Such things have happened in ancient
and in modern times, in China and in foreign lands, so it is not new.
In
addition to internal struggles, there are fights from the outside. The North Korean people will neither
want to be a vassal of foreigners, nor are willing to be the slaves of the
Communist Party. Anti-colonial
struggle against the Chinese Communist regime will be supported by all the
people in North Korea. This is not
what Hu Jintao and his kind have estimated. This national sentiment will encourage the South Koreans to
change the past tolerance towards North Korea and bring the U.S. troops
stationed in South Korea with them.
Thus, it will tint the struggle with international color. In other words, as the Chinese Communists
get one North Korea, it also gets three enemies of the United States, South
Korea, and Japan. This balance
will accelerate the demise of the Chinese Communist regime, just as had
happened more than one hundred years ago.
This result is also out of the estimation of Hu Jintao and his kind.
When
these sharp contradictions develop to a certain extent, war will break
out. North Korea once again will
become the trigger for China's war outward and social unrest inward, with no
opportunity left for a peaceful evolution. Sun Yat-Sen will once again return to China to lead the
revolution. All this is due to
Hu's empire dream, is due to Hu's maintaining one-party dictatorship. Chinese nationalists will lose
themselves in the pirate ship of the Communist Party and once again bring China
to an unnecessary disaster.
Therefore,
before it is too late, I hope that Hu's reins will stop their horses before
they jump off cliffs: do not to interfere with the ugly inheritance matters in
North Korea; do not harm themselves while harming others; do not push South
Korea, Japan and the United States into a corner to force them fight back
together. That way would not be
beneficial to the Chinese Communist Party, nor the people in China. Instead, do a good job for a peaceful
evolution of China's own -- although it perhaps cannot safeguard the one-party
Communist dictatorship, at least it will prevent these people with vested
interests to have a terrible end.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101126KoreanCrisis2.mp3
(Written
on Nov. 25 and recorded on Nov. 26, 2010.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A589-W357
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A589-W357
Release
Date: December 4, 2010
发布日：2010年12月4日
Topic:
Korean Crisis (part 2) -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《朝韩危机》之二 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-12/WeiJS101204KoreanCrisis2A589-W357.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
《朝韩危机》之二
-- 魏京生
中国为了帮助金正日政权安全地进行交接班必须做什么呢？这就是派出一支力量，就近监督可能发生的政变。由于金正日的接班人面临着好几个可能的竞争者，而且都是有实力的竞争者，所以金正日确定的接班人几乎肯定会面临着被政变废除的风险。废除之后的北朝鲜政权又会面临着其他的竞争者。他们之间的争斗会造成政局不稳。更重要的是，软弱的当局会求助于外来的援助，而最名正言顺的外来者就是韩国。其结果就是北朝鲜逐渐走上民主之路，同时迅速脱离共产党阵营。这是大家都估计到的结果，也是中共最不愿意看到的结果。
因此在北朝鲜出现继承危机的时候，派一支军队去直接干预，可以造成完全不同的结果。自从朝鲜战争之后，中国在北朝鲜没有驻军。因此，金日成父子的政权对北京也并不是恭恭敬敬、言听计从。在中国和苏联产生重大分歧的时候，金日成政权显然不是中国的盟友。这个教训促使中共政权寻求机会再度向朝鲜派驻军队，以保证中共自己的利益。这个机会终于在金家王朝交接班的时候出现了，而且是金正日亲自到北京求助于中共的帮助。但是，事情不能做得太明显，需要有合适的理由。于是再度制造紧张局势，而且越紧张，理由越充分。这就是这次炮击事件发生的原因，也是炮击后北朝鲜态度十分强硬的原因。某些西方政治家希望北京约束北朝鲜平息事态，其实正好给了北京充分的理由向北朝鲜派驻军队。
中国向北朝鲜派驻军队会产生什么后果呢？首先是金正日选定的接班人会顺利地上台。政变不会发生或者会顺利地被镇压下去。但北朝鲜的接班危机却并不会因此而结束。金正日的接班人没有足够的权威接掌权力，因此争权斗争将持续很长时间。无论是谁，都得求助于驻军的支持。中国政府就成了北朝鲜的太上皇。中国人有足够的政治经验和历史传统，使这种状况持续下去。很快，北朝鲜就成了中国的附属国。朝鲜的民主化没有了机会，统一也没有了机会。反而倒是中共政权稳定了自己的边疆。而且，这会获得中国国内民族主义势力的支持，有利于继续维持中共政权的生存。这就是北京积极干预朝鲜事务的如意算盘。
一百多年前，为了维护在朝鲜的宗主权，发生了名为甲午战争的中日战争。中国军队一败涂地，并从此走向了衰落。现在使中国的势力重新回到朝鲜，的确是某些民族主义狂热分子的理想。如果这次胡锦涛成功了，他就会得到这一大批民族主义狂热分子的支持。这不仅巩固了共产党的统治，而且加强了胡锦涛本人的威望，有利于团派在中共内部争权夺利。这是胡锦涛的团派多年来经营朝鲜事务的动机。
但是，螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后。动荡的北朝鲜必然成为中国的一大负担。它不仅是经济上的负担，而且会成为政治上的一大负担。对内，中共内的各种派系都会插手朝鲜事务。所以，北朝鲜不会从此平安无事，反倒会此起彼伏，多事之秋。这就和历史上发生过的一样：在自己国内不好意思干的事情，在附属国里就可以干。在中共内部还有一定节制和一定规则的内斗，延伸到北朝鲜就会失控。并且反过来，会使这种失控和无节制的内斗发展到中共内部来。结果使得中共的内斗也失去控制，最终走向灭亡。这种事情古今中外都发生过许多了，不是什么新鲜事。
除了内斗，还有外斗。朝鲜人民不会甘于做中共的奴隶。他们既不愿意做外国人的附庸，也不愿意做共产党的奴隶。反对中共殖民政权的斗争会得到全体人民的支持。这是胡锦涛们没有估计到的。这种民族情绪会促使韩国人民改变以往对北朝鲜的容忍态度，并把在韩国有驻军的美国拉下水，使这种斗争带有国际斗争的色彩。也就是说，得到了一个北朝鲜，就同时得到了美、韩、日三个敌人。这将会加速中共政权的灭亡，就像一百多年前曾经发生过的一样。这也是胡锦涛们没有估计到的。
当这些尖锐的矛盾发展到一定程度的时候，就会发生战争。朝鲜再度成为引起中国对外战争和社会动乱的导火索，想和平演变都没有机会了。孙中山会再次回到中国领导革命。这一切都是胡锦涛的帝国梦引起的，都是为了维护一党专政引起的。中国的民族主义者们会糊里糊涂地上了共产党的贼船，再一次给中国带来不必要的灾难。
所以，我希望胡锦涛们在还来得及的时候悬崖勒马：不要去干预北朝鲜丑恶的继承事务；不要去害人害己；不要把朝鲜、日本和美国逼到死角，迫使他们共同反击。那样，对中国共产党没有好处，对中国老百姓也同样没有什么好处。倒是搞好中国自己的和平演变，也许保不住中共的一党专政，但还能保住既得利益集团们不至于下场太悲惨。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101126KoreanCrisis2.mp3
（撰写于2010年11月25日。录音于2010年11月26日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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