Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A593-W361
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A593-W361
Release
Date: December 12, 2010
发布日：2010年12月12日
Topic:
Korean Crisis (part 3) -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《朝韩危机》之三 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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Korean
Crisis (part 3)
--
Wei Jingsheng
After
we understand the intentions of North Korea and China, we can understand the
real significance of the tripartite policy between the United States, Japan and
South Korea. Recently, the United
States, Japan and South Korea held a secret meeting in the US Capitol
Washington DC. From the statement
after the meeting, these three parties have given up the illusion of six-party
talks and are no longer relying on China to persuade North Korea. Instead they are ready to adopt a tough
policy against North Korea's provocation.
The U.S. military calls it "asymmetric retaliation." Because in dealing with the rogue, one
should let him lose more than he tries to gain, so he might give up the
motivation for bullying. This is a
very simple reason.
Since
it is such a simple truth, why in the past were unwise strategies taken? Mainly it is due to the spread of a
hypocritical nationalism in South Korean society that thinks, as Koreans, we do
not fight against our own Koreans.
Between brothers, anything is negotiable. This attitude is just like some hypocritical argument in the
Chinese society nowadays that thinks that the Chinese Communist Party is our
brother, instead of our enemy.
Thus, everything could be resolved via "positive engagement"
of a "peaceful, rational and non-violent" variety.
This
social psychology of the South Koreans is related to their recent history. During a period after the Korean War,
several dictators backed by the US held the Korean regime. Because of South Koreans' resentment
against these dictatorial politics, people also disliked all the policies of
these dictators including the policy that treats North Korea as an enemy. In Taiwan, there is a similar social psychology:
because they were against the Chiang dictatorship, they beautified the
dictatorial politics of Mao Zedong.
The logic was: anything our enemy is against, we shall support. Thus the enemy of the enemy becomes
friends. It is this kind of logic
that mistaken Kim Jong Il and Mao Zedong not to be the enemy.
From
the time of the Kim Dae-jung government, the leftists who held power executed a
policy which treated the North Koreans as their brothers, while the U.S.
military that defended their security treated them as the enemy. The so-called "Sunshine
Policy" of Kim Dae-jung is such a thing that treats its enemy as
friend. Yet, this product of a
confused mind not only won the agreement of the public opinion in the South
Korean society, but also received the support of Western politicians.
In
order not to offend China which provides them with good business opportunities,
they do not care about the oppressed and exploited North Korean people. Thus, the wrongful policy of Kim
Dae-jung received the Nobel Peace Prize, just as the wrongful policy of Henry
Kissinger rewarded him with the Nobel Peace Prize with the Vietnamese Communist
leader Le Duc Tho. The Western big
businesses reward policies of appeasement that safeguard them to make money.
With
the encouragement of the international community, the South Korean government
ignored the reality of the oppressed and exploited brothers and sisters in
North Korea, making concessions again and again to the unreasonable demands of
Kim Jong Il. Meanwhile, it was
also giving a lot of money and material assistance to help the Kim family
dynasty's last legs, thus extending the suffering of their North Korean
brothers and sisters. On the other
hand, it often rallied to demand a U.S. withdrawal from South Korea, treating
the U.S. military presence was not to protect their safety, but to bring them a
disaster.
With
this basic situation, the western capitalists arose and bought a number of
politicians, lobbying the Congress for their appeasement policy. So resolutions for the appeasement
policy came out one after another.
So the trend of the entire international community was guided to the
direction of helping to maintain the dictatorial regimes. This is almost a replica of European
politics before World War II.
In
an effort to help Kim Jong Il who lacks of diplomatic experience to maintain
such an excellent situation; in order to do a better scam and seal the mouths
of the rational politicians and news media in the West, the Chinese Communist
regime, which has a rich experience in international politics, thus organized
seemingly fair six-party talks wherein North Korea, China, and Russia are three
votes against the other three and can sustain an endless talking. If some results indeed came out of the
talk, all could be undone when Kim Jong Il put on his face of the rogue. Then everything has to be started over
from scratch. Anyway, Westerners
are living far away and do not really care about the suffering of the North
Koreans who do not have any news.
But,
Beijing cannot control the boundary of Kim Jong Il's ambition. To be the child emperor is only a
temporary solution, not the ultimate goal. If Kim Jong Il could have nuclear weapons like China, then
it could put aside the humiliation of being a "child emperor". That suddenly made the Westerners begin
to care about their own nuclear security.
That also shattered the South Koreans' illusion of brotherhood. Except for idiots, all can imagine that
a nuclear-armed North Korean Kim dynasty will not surrender itself to a
"Sunshine Policy" of the fool.
The ambition of Kim's dynasty is not limited to the border of the 38th
parallel north.
Beijing
clearly made a mistake by not estimating the awakening of the Korean
people. From the sinking of the
South Korea naval ship to the artillery strikes against Yeonpyeong Island, it
not only let the South Korean people have enough time to change their mind, but
also enough time for the politicians of the United States and Japan to change
strategy. Within one month, the
South Koreans changed their attitude.
As it signed free trade agreements with the USA, it also set aside the
fraudulent six-party talks, and meanwhile firmly seized the initiative rights
of the United States, Japan, and South Korea to discuss their own security with
their own people, rather than pin their hopes on the ally of an enemy.
That
is why the Chinese Communist government holds its long face, begging South
Korea and Japan to continue six-party talks. It still holds its last ray of hope for the ignorance of the
Korean and Japanese people. But
they made a mistake. They should
have gone to the Europeans who first responded, especially the Germans who
guaranteed that they could help China persuade North Korea, and then let the
Germans who do not have direct interest work to persuade the Americans to
continue the six-party talks.
There was at least a little chance.
However,
the people in Japan and South Korea have been awakened, and they have
democratic politics. Their
politicians are unlikely to continue to deceive their own people. Americans also have to respect their
opinions. After all, the USA is
their ally, not their master.
Besides, this is America's own security interest. They always have a very clear mind
about their own interests.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101208KoreanCrisis3.mp3
(Written
and recorded on December 8, 2010.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A593-W361
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A593-W361
Release
Date: December 12, 2010
发布日：2010年12月12日
Topic:
Korean Crisis (part 3) -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《朝韩危机》之三 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-12/WeiJS101212KoreanCrisis3A593-W361.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
《朝韩危机》之三
-- 魏京生
在了解了朝鲜和中国的意图之后，我们才能理解美、日、韩三方政策的实际意义。最近，美日韩三方在美国首都华盛顿召开了三国秘密会谈。从会谈后的公报看，三方已经放弃了对六方会谈的幻想，不再依靠中国去说服北朝鲜，而是准备以强硬政策对付北朝鲜的挑衅。用美国军方的说法，就是“非对称的报复”。因为对于流氓来说，只有让他吃亏，得不偿失，他才会放弃耍流氓的动机。这是个非常简单的道理。
既然是这么简单的道理，为什么过去要采取不明智的策略呢？主要是因为韩国社会流传的一种虚伪的民族主义：总认为都是朝鲜人，朝鲜人不打朝鲜人，自家兄弟有什么都可以商量。就像中国的一些伪善的论调一样，以为共产党也是兄弟不是敌人，一切都可以通过和平理性非暴力的良性互动来解决。
韩国人的这种社会心理，和他们的历史过程有关。在朝鲜战争结束的一段时间里，美国支持下的几位独裁者掌握着韩国的政权。人们因为厌恶独裁政治，也厌恶独裁者的一切政策，包括把北朝鲜当作敌人的政策。台湾也有类似的社会心理：因为反对蒋家的独裁政治，就把毛泽东的独裁政治看成了一朵花。凡是敌人反对的我们就要支持，于是敌人的敌人就成了我们的朋友。金正日和毛泽东就这样被误认为不是敌人了。
从金大中政府开始，掌权的左派人士就在执行着把北朝鲜当作兄弟，反而把保卫他们安全的美国军队当作敌人的政策。金大中的所谓的“阳光政策”就是这么一种认敌为友的东西。但是这种头脑混乱的东西不但得到了韩国社会舆论的认同，而且还得到了西方政客们的支持。
为了不得罪中国这个做生意的好机会，他们不在乎朝鲜人民被压迫被剥削。于是金大中的错误政策就得到了诺贝尔和平奖，和基辛格的错误政策使他和越南共产党领导人黎德寿得到了诺贝尔和平奖一样。西方大企业奖励的是保证他们赚钱的绥靖政策。
在国际社会的鼓励下，韩国政府一方面无视北朝鲜兄弟姐妹被压迫被剥削的现实，一次次地向金正日的无理要求做出让步。同时还给予大量金钱和物资的援助，帮助金家王朝苟延残喘，延长了北朝鲜兄弟姐妹的苦难。另一方面却动不动就集会要求美军撤出韩国，似乎美军的驻扎不是保护他们的安全，倒是给他们带来了灾难。
有了这个基本形势，西方的资本家们就鼓动和收买一批政客，为他们的绥靖政策游说国会。于是国会中一项项支持绥靖政策的议案就出台了。于是整个国际社会的潮流就被引导向了帮助维持专制政权的方向。这几乎就是二次大战前欧洲政治的翻版。
为了帮助不太富有外交经验的金正日维持这个大好的局面；为了把这场骗局做得更好，堵住西方理智的政治家和舆论的嘴；富有国际政治经验的中共政权就安排了一个看似公平的六方会谈，由北朝鲜和他的盟友为一方；三票对三票可以无休止地谈下去。真的谈出了结果，金正日把他的流氓脸一抹，就都不算数了。一切从头开始。反正西方人住得很远，不在乎没有新闻的北朝鲜人是不是真的在受苦。
但是金正日野心的边界，不是北京能控制的。儿皇帝只是权宜之计，不是终极目标。如果能像中国一样拥有核武器，就能够抛开儿皇帝的屈辱，自主地做一个真正的皇帝了。这一下，西方人开始关心自己的核安全了。这一下，韩国人的兄弟幻想被打破了。只要不是傻瓜都能想象得出来：拥有核武器的金家王朝不可能屈服于韩国傻瓜的“阳关政策”。金家王朝的野心不仅仅限于三十八度线。
北京显然犯了一个错误，没有估计到韩国人的觉醒。从天安舰事件到延坪岛的炮击，给了韩国民众转变思想的足够时间，也给了美国和日本的政治家们转变策略的足够时间。韩国人在一个月之内转变了态度：和美国签订自由贸易协定的同时，抛开了六方会谈的骗局，并且坚定地由美、日、韩三方掌握主动权，和真正的自己人讨论自己的安全，而不再把希望寄托在敌人的盟友身上了。
这就是中国政府为什么哭丧着脸，跑到韩国和日本去求人家继续六方会谈的原因。他们对韩国、日本人民的愚昧还报有最后一线希望。但他们又犯了一个错误。他们应该去求最早做出反应的欧洲人，特别是保证让中国说服北朝鲜的德国人，然后由没有直接利害关系的德国人去说服美国人继续六方会谈。这至少还有一点儿机会。
不过日本、韩国人民已经觉醒，那儿又是民主政治。政治家们不太可能继续欺骗自己人民的政策了。美国人也得尊重他们的意见。美国只是他们的盟友，不是他们的主子。何况这也是美国人自己的安全利益。他们在自己的利益上从来都很清醒。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101208KoreanCrisis3.mp3
（撰写并录音于2010年12月8日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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