Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A596-W364
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A596-W364
Release
Date: December 26, 2010
发布日：2010年12月26日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XXIX): The Intensified Inflation Problem in China
-- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之二十九：中国愈演愈烈的通货膨胀问题 -- 魏京生
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The
Way Out for China (Part XXIX): The Intensified Inflation Problem in China
--
Wei Jingsheng
China's
economy often has excessive inflation.
But each inflation is not exactly the same. The inflation during the Mao Zedong era was due to the
shortage of goods caused by the planned economy. Academics call it a shortage economy. After the economic reform of the
1980's, inflation is still emerging consistently. At present the recently rising currency inflation has such
intensity that it has made many people puzzled: "Since China has been
reformed to a market economy, why is it still short of commodities, and has
this inflation?"
Some
friends with knowledge of economics would say: "the capitalist countries
engaging in a Keynesian economy will also have a little inflation from time to
time." So let us take a look
at this Keynesian inflation of the Western countries, to see how it is
different from the currency inflation in China now. Then we will analyze how to adjust and control the current
inflation, and also explain why only democratic politics could avoid a
hyperinflation.
Without
exception, all inflation is due to there being more currency in the market than
the value of commodities. The
market will automatically balance the relationship between the two, that is to
make the aggregate value of money to be the same as that of the total
commodities. So that means the
prices of commodities will rise.
The theory average folks can understand easily is that: "when there
is more money and less goods, the goods get more expensive."
Some
friends will ask: "Is not China a world factory now, how could it be short
of goods? This is not
logical." Indeed, it is not
logical. The economic policy of
the Chinese Communist Party is to let a few people make a lot of money, so they
can get rich. The Chinese world
factory is a factory to make those few people rich, instead of making average
people able to enjoy the commodities of this world factory. So regardless of how big this factory
is, China's market is still very small, which means it is still short of
commodities. According to the
scale of its market size, China is still a very poor country, not even an
average poor country.
So
what does all the GDP in China mean?
Doesn't a rising GDP mean prosperity? Yes, indeed there is prosperity there, but only for the
minority. A few people have even
become super rich. The problem is
that the average folks who are the very majority of the population in China are
not rich. They have very limited
purchasing power, along with a very small Chinese market. So what does that impressive GDP
figure mean? It means that the
small minority possesses the majority value of the production. If these people used their money for
consumption in the domestic market in China, at least the market would be
balanced. Despite of the average
people remaining poor, at least there would be no inflation.
If
it were the lower and middle classes earning this money, they would certainly
spent it on the domestic market, increasing consumer spending in their daily
lives. After improving their
livelihood with this money, there would not be too much left unused.
But
it is different with the super rich.
It is impossible for them and their families to spend the huge wealth in
their hands. So they must find an
outlet for the money. This is
where the differences between China and the West start to appear.
In
a normal society, the extra money would be used to invest, or be deposited into
banks for the others to invest.
This kind of saving and investment is the force for economic
development. When there is
excessive saving and investment yet a shortage in the market, an economic
crisis may also occur. This
situation was one of the reasons for the U.S. Great Depression in the 1930's
when there was excessive production ability yet a lack of enough market to
sell. The continuous bankruptcy of
the banks resulted in a continuous shrinking of the market thus became a
vicious cycle. Keynesianism is
indeed an effective way to stop this vicious cycle. But the consequence is inflation. How to both promote economy into a positive cycle, meanwhile
restrict inflation within reasonable limits? It must be adjusted by a government which is responsible to
its country and its society.
But
the situation in China is different.
People all say that China is the world factory, but its production
capacity is not targeted to China's own market. Instead, it is targeted to the high priced markets in the
West. Its exists for the
others. Measuring it by China's
own market, it simply has too much surplus. This production surplus is in existence for the minority
people to gain even more wealth.
It uses the cheap labor in China and high priced markets in the West to
make excess profit. This is the
production purpose of the bureaucratic capital in China.
Half
of these excess profits are in the Western market as profit for the big
businesses of the West, while the other half is distributed within the Chinese
ruling class in the form of Chinese currency, RenMinBi. Neither the businessmen nor corrupt
officials in China feel that their money is secure, nor think this society is
reliable. They exchange their
RenMinBi into foreign currency, which makes China's foreign reserves to be the
highest in the world while the RMB flows back to the market. Or they use the money to buy things
like real estate as a way to preserve their money, which also results in the
RMB flowing back to the market.
So, as the real purchasing power represented by the money goes abroad,
the money exchanged is still in China.
This is the potential and gradually accumulating reason for the
inflation.
The
gradual accumulation of inflation was not immediately and directly
demonstrated. Because of the
presence of financial factors etc. as buffers, its outbreak needed a trigger
similar to that needed to ignite of the gunpowder in a bullet. The trigger was pulled when the biggest
pillar of China's economy got in trouble.
This pillar is the cheap exports, which caused the economic recession
and unemployment in the West. The
Western democracy has to give priority to its constituents, and thus has to
stop this type of economic model which makes minority people in the East and
West rich, while for the most ordinary people bear the negative consequences.
In
this case, the measure a government of a democratic country should take is to
use the foreign currency in its hand to absorb the excessive RMB, as well as to
relax the restriction of foreign goods into the Chinese market. The only proper course to solve the
inflation problem is to reduce the circulation of RMB and increase commodity
circulation. However, the Chinese
government did just the opposite.
It does not allow a free exchange of foreign currency, nor relax
restrictions on foreign goods entering China. Even so, most of the products produced by the foreign trade
enterprises in China either have no market, or the market is already over
saturated.
This
saturation is the root cause of hyperinflation in China now. China's economic policy is not to
develop China's own economy, but to make some people rich. Its aim is to maintain cheap
labor. So the Chinese Communist
regime will not allow the Chinese currency RMB to appreciate, nor let the free
flow of markets in between China and the foreign countries. Maintaining the enormous gap between
the Chinese and the foreign markets is the fundamental policy for the Chinese
Communist regime to get rich in unity with the capitalists in the world. Only an authoritarian regime could have
done so.
Therefore,
the existence of this authoritarian regime is the root cause of the deformed
Chinese economy. As long as China
is undemocratic, this situation will continue until the collapse of Chinese
Communist regime.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101029ChinaWayOut29inflation.mp3
(Written
and recorded on October 29, 2010.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A596-W364
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A596-W364
Release
Date: December 26, 2010
发布日：2010年12月26日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XXIX): The Intensified Inflation Problem in China
-- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之二十九：中国愈演愈烈的通货膨胀问题 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2010/report2010-12/WeiJS101226ChinaWayOut29inflationA596-W364.htm
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《中国的出路》之二十九：中国愈演愈烈的通货膨胀问题
-- 魏京生
中国的经济经常出现通货膨胀。但每一次的通货膨胀情况不完全一样。毛泽东时代的通货膨胀，是计划经济商品短缺造成的。学术界管它叫做短缺型经济。八十年代改革经济体制以后，仍然不断出现通货膨胀。特别是最近刚刚兴起的剧烈的通货膨胀，让很多人迷惑：“既然改革成为市场经济了，为什么商品仍然短缺。仍然会通货膨胀呢？”
有些懂一些经济的朋友会说：资本主义国家搞凯恩斯主义，也会时不时地来点儿通货膨胀。下边我们就来看看，西方国家的凯恩斯主义通货膨胀，和中国现在的通货膨胀到底有什么不同。然后我们再分析一下如何才能调整和治理现在的通货膨胀，并且说明为什么只有民主政治才能避免恶性的通货膨胀。
所有的通货膨胀无一例外，都是因为同时存在于市场上的货币多于商品价值。市场会自动平衡二者的关系，也就是让货币总量和商品价值总量趋于相等。于是商品就涨价了。这就是所谓的通货膨胀。通货指的就是各种形式存在的货币。货币总量太多了，用文词儿说就是通货膨胀了。用老百姓的大白话说：就是钱多货少了，结果就是货涨价了。
朋友们一定会问：中国不是世界加工厂吗，怎么还会货少了呢？这不符合逻辑。这的确不符合逻辑。中国共产党的经济政策，是让少数人挣大钱，让他们能够富起来。那个加工厂也是为了让一部分人富起来的加工厂，不是为了国民能够享受到好处的加工厂。所以加工厂再多，中国的市场仍然是一个狭小的市场。也就是说商品仍然非常短缺。按市场规模来说，中国仍然是个非常穷的穷国，不是一般的穷国。
那么那些GDP都是怎么回事儿呢？不是说GDP上去了就说明富裕了吗？富裕是不错，但要看富裕了谁。一部分人成为巨富，平均水平也算是富裕了。问题是普通的占人口大多数的老百姓并没有富裕。他们的购买力十分有限，中国的市场仍然十分狭小。那么那些GDP都说明了什么呢？说明一小部分人占有了大部分生产出来的价值。如果他们把钱花在国内市场上消费，市场仍然是平衡的。尽管老百姓很穷，但是不至于通货膨胀。
如果是中产阶级和下层的穷人挣到了这些钱，他们肯定会花在国内市场上，花在他们的日常生活消费中。因为他们除了把生活调理得更好一些，也不会有太多剩余了。
但是巨富们就不同了。他们和他们的家人不可能消费掉手里的巨额财富。所以他们必须要给手里的余钱找出路。中国和西方的区别就出现在这里。
在正常的社会里，这些余钱或者用来投资，或者存入银行由别人用来投资。这种储蓄和投资，正是经济发展的动力。当储蓄和投资过剩而市场不足时，也会发生经济危机。美国三十年代的大萧条正是这种生产能力过剩而市场不足引起的。企业的不断倒闭造成了市场的不断缩小，进入恶性的循环。凯恩斯主义的确是停止恶性循环的有效方法。但他的后果是通货膨胀。如何既促使经济进入良性循环，又把通货膨胀限制在合理的范围内，这必须由一个对国家和社会负责任的政府来调节。
中国的情况就不同了。都说中国是世界加工厂，它的生产能力并不是以中国自己的市场为目标，而是以西方的高价市场为目标，是为别人存在的。以中国本身的市场来衡量，它根本就是过剩的。这个过剩的生产能力是为了少数人增加他们的财富而存在的。利用中国的廉价劳动力和西方的高价市场赚取超额的利润。这是中国官僚资本的生产目的。
这些超高利润，一半作为西方大企业的利润留在了西方市场中，另一半作为人民币在中国的统治阶级中分配。无论是商人还是贪官污吏，他们都不觉得手中的钱是可靠的，也不觉得这个社会是可靠的。他们或者把钱换成外汇，使得外汇存底成为世界第一；而人民币又流回到市场中去。另一些钱则用来抢购保值的不动产，如房地产等等；使得人民币也流回到市场中去。这些钱所代表的货物已经流向了国外，而钱却留在了国内市场。这是通货膨胀的潜在的、逐渐积累的原因。
这个逐渐积累的通货膨胀不会立即直接地表现出来。因为有金融等等缓冲因素的存在，它的爆发需要等待一个触发的因素出现，就像子弹里的火药需要有一个引信来点燃一样。这个引信，就是中国经济的最大支柱出了问题。这个支柱就是廉价的出口--这个出口引起了西方的经济衰退和失业。西方的民主政治不得不优先照顾自己的选民，不得不停止这种让东西方的一部分人富起来，而大部分老百姓为他们承担后果的经济模式。
在这种情况下，一个民主国家的政府应该采取的措施，是用手中的外汇吸收过剩的人民币；同时放宽外国商品进入中国市场的限制。因为减少市场上流通的人民币；增加商品流通是解决通货膨胀的不二法门。但是，中国政府却反其道而行之。一不放开外汇的自由兑换，二不放宽外国商品进入中国的限制。而那些外贸企业的产品大部分在国内没有市场，或者市场早就超饱和了。
这就是现在中国恶性通货膨胀的根本原因。中国的经济政策不是为了发展中国自身的经济，而是为了一部分人发财。其目的就是维持廉价劳动力。所以中共政权不会让人民币升值，也不会让中外市场自由流通。维持中外市场的巨大落差，是中共集团发财并且联合全世界资产阶级的根本政策。这只有专制的政权可以做得到。
所以，这个专制政权的存在，是中国经济畸形的根本原因。中国不民主，这种状况就将继续下去，直到崩溃的那一天。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101029ChinaWayOut29inflation.mp3
（撰写并录音于2010年10月29日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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