Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A599-W367
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A599-W367
Release
Date: January 9, 2011
发布日：2011年1月9日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XXXII): Prospect for the Year of 2011 -- Wei
Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之三十二：2011年展望 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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The
Way Out for China (Part XXXII): Prospect for the Year of 2011
--
Wei Jingsheng
As
the new year 2011 arrives, everyone is concerned about what kind of year it
will be. Everyone has already
realized that China has reached the end of road for accumulating wealth by
relying on providing cheap labor to export goods, which it has been pursuing
since the Deng Xiaoping era.
China's domestic market has been shrinking relatively, while the
disparity between the rich and poor has been expanding, along with expanding
damage to the countries it exports to.
All these problems have reached their limits.
The
reactions from the countries that import Chinese goods have changed
completely. By relying on the
lobbying of big businesses which make profits from their China deals, it is
becoming hard for the Chinese government to maintain this strategy of harming
the others in an effort to benefit itself. The trade barriers of various Western countries have
gradually increased for several years now. A few years ago, it was still happening in secrecy; the most
typical cases were the European countries and Japan. They were using mainly non-tariff measures, such as custom
checks and other roadblocks to increase the difficulty for Chinese goods to
enter their markets. However,
these measures did not really prevent the dumping of cheap Chinese goods, and
thus were not able to promote the Chinese government to change its strategy of
cheap export instead of expanding China's own market.
Because
the United States did not join in with the European model of non-tariff
barriers, the pattern of world trade was not fundamentally changed. But, beginning last year, there have
been increased pressures from public opinion in the United States. Although the lobbying groups of the big
businesses spare no effort to the degree that there are always groups of them
waiting to meet the speaker of the House, Congress still could not resist the
pressure of public opinion. After
all, this is a democratic country, unlike what happens in China where the fate
of the whole country is determined by a few leaders. Now, the United States has had to begin taking a tough trade
policy.
In
this situation, even the Chinese leadership understands that they must make a
fresh start. Its strategy of
economic expansion must stop. It
must enter a normal developing strategy of sustainable development. That means expanding the domestic
market synchronized with economic growth, raising the public income level,
reducing the growth rate, reducing the gap between rich and poor, and letting
the expanded domestic market digest the surplus production capacity resulting
from blocked exports.
These
processes are the only way to ensure that, in the next few years, China's economic
decline will not develop to the extent of the Great Depression of the United
States in the 1930's. A direct
cause of that depression was the sharp decrease in exports, which resulted in
some businesses closing and deflation, followed by a chain reaction of more
corporate failures and more workers losing their jobs. As soon as a domino chain reaction
starts, it is hard to stop which brought the Great Depression.
China
is now in a situation which is very similar to the USA then, but not identical. Back then, the U.S. domestic market was
relatively saturated and it was impossible to raise wages rapidly to expand the
market. However, the current
situation in China is different.
Over the years, the wage level has been held down deliberately while the
Chinese currency RenMinBi's exchange rate also has been suppressed
deliberately. Objectively, there
is great potential to expand the domestic market in China. This is the biggest difference from the
United States Great Depression in 1930's.
Another
big difference is that China is not a real market economy. Its import model is full of non-tariff
trade barriers. This policy is now
one of the main reasons for the current hyperinflation. Specifically, imports are not smooth,
so domestic and foreign markets cannot adjust themselves, yet the currency
exchange rate cannot adjust itself either. Once the export growth rate is stopped or reduced while
productivity growth has not diminished, inflation is the inevitable
self-regulation.
To
change this self-regulation model, we must change the unreasonable economic
model and stop the rapid economic development which is harming others for
itself. In other words, first we
must stop the model which accumulates wealth by damaging the interests of
ordinary Chinese people. Second we
must stop the model which relies on exploiting the markets of the import
countries to expand exports, so as to enable both domestic and foreign markets
to self-regulate while steadily improving the income of the domestic working-class
and expanding the domestic market in China. These policies can resolve hyperinflation in China within
one year, and gradually lead China to the road of sustainable development.
This
transformation of the economic model is good for the domestic and international
economic relations. China's
working-class income will be increased, and everyone's real income will
increase after the inflation stopped.
Thus, ordinary people could be living better, while society would be
more stable than it is now. The
expansion of the domestic market in China will have a positive result for the
aftereffect of future economic development, which would show its vitality
within a year or two.
The
policies will produce important positive effects on the international relations. Exports to developed countries will be
reduced, meanwhile imports increased, resulting in a reduction of trade
surpluses, as well as a reduction of trade friction. It will help to restore the economic growth rate of
developed countries, thus help pull them out of recession. After a year or two, the markets
of the developed countries with their now growing economies will automatically
expand their imports and in turn promote China's exports. Thus the whole world could walk out of
this economic crisis.
Why
is such a happy thing for everyone so strewn with setbacks? Why do not so many economists and
government policy makers understand?
It is really not that they do not understand, but because they are
looking at the issue from a different perspective. These measures will make most people benefit, but big
business and their beneficiaries will lose money, so they do not see the
benefit, thus could not understand.
So it is really not due to understanding, but due to different stands.
A
decline in exports is not what some people in China would like to see. These people are the businessmen who
make a fortune from exports, and the corrupted Chinese officials who make big
money from these businessmen.
Therefore, the Chinese Department of Commerce does not want it, and most
of the current bureaucrats in different levels do not want it. When high-quality imported goods enter
the Chinese market, they will force China's domestic producers to phase-out. The people who will be phased out
during the industrial technological concentration and adjusting period, and the
local Chinese officials who got rich by consuming these producers of cheap
goods do not want it. Of course,
the Western big businesses that made a big fortune by monopolizing the market of
selling cheap goods do not want it either, including these economists they
feed.
This
is the true reason behind the phenomena that seems to have made so many smart
people in the world become silly.
However, the economic status is stronger than these people's will. The democratic society in the West will
not allow politicians and scholars to fool the people by pretend silly for a
long time. So now the economic
recession in Europe and the USA has finally forced the Chinese government to
walk out of the hoax it built. The
looming economic collapse of China, along with more and more people being in
extreme poverty, is also forcing the Chinese government to stop its strategy of
harming others for itself.
The
expectation now is to see whether the big capitalists in China will be able to
wisely accept this reality or not.
If they accept it, then everyone will have better lives, except that
these capitalists will lose some excess profit. If they do not accept it, then they will collapse with the
Chinese Communist Party together.
The prospect for them to flee to foreign countries is not very bright,
because the Chinese people who have accumulated many years of hatred will not
let them run away, and the international society which lost this chance to walk
out of their crisis will not accept them in asylum neither.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101228ChinaWayOut32NewYear2011.mp3
(Written
and recorded on December 28, 2010.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A599-W367
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A599-W367
Release
Date: January 9, 2011
发布日：2011年1月9日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XXXII): Prospect for the Year of 2011 -- Wei
Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之三十二：2011年展望 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2011/report2011-01/WeiJS110109ChinaWayOut32NewYear2011A599-W367.htm
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《中国的出路》之三十二：2011年新年展望
-- 魏京生
新年到来，大家都在关心今年将会是什么样子的一年。也就是说，大家都已经看到了，从邓小平时代以来奉行的依靠廉价劳动力出口积累财富的路子，已经走到了头。国内市场相对的萎缩，贫富差距相对的扩大，损害进口国程度相对的扩大，都已经达到了极限。
首先是进口国反应已经今非昔比。依靠获利的大企业游说，已经很难维持损人利已的策略进行下去。西方各国的贸易壁垒已经连续几年逐步加高。前几年还是暗中加高，最典型的就是欧洲各国和日本。它们使用的主要是非关税的手段，例如使用入关检查制造麻烦等等手法，使得中国商品入关的难度加大。但是，这些措施没有真正阻挡中国廉价商品的倾销，也就没有能促使中国政府改变廉价出口而不扩大国内市场的策略。
由于美国没有加入到欧洲模式的非关税壁垒的阵营，所以世界贸易的格局也没有根本的改变。从去年开始，美国国内舆论的压力越来越大。大企业的游说团体虽然全力以赴地在游说，以致于议长办公室的会客厅里，随时都有几个游说班子在守候，弄得助理们焦头烂额，穷于应付，但还是抵不住社会舆论的压力，毕竟这是个民主国家。不像中国那样搞定几个头头就可以说了算。美国已经不得不采取强硬的贸易政策了。
在这种形势下，就连中国的领导层也明白，不改弦更张是不可能的了。经济扩张的战略必须停止，必须进入到可持续的正常的发展战略。这就是和经济增长同步地扩大国内市场；提高大众的收入水平；减低增长速度；减小贫富差距；让出口受阻后的过剩生产能力，被扩大了的国内市场消化掉。
只有这一个方法可以保证今后几年中国的经济滑坡，不至于发展到美国三十年代大萧条的程度。那次大萧条的直接原因就是出口锐减。由于出口锐减导致一部分企业倒闭和通货紧缩，接下来的连锁反应就是更多的企业倒闭；更多的工人失业；连锁反应的多米诺骨牌一旦打开就很难停住。这是美国三十年代经济大崩溃的直接原因。
中国现在的情况和美国当年十分相似，但又不完全相同。美国当年是国内市场相对饱和，不可能迅速提高工资扩大市场。而中国目前的情况则不同。多年来工资水平是被刻意地压低；人民币汇率也是被刻意地压低。客观上存在着扩大国内市场的巨大潜力。这是和当年的美国最大的不同。
另一个很大的不同，就是中国还不是真正的市场经济。进口实行的是非关税壁垒的模式。这也是现在恶性通货膨胀的主要原因之一。具体地说，就是进口不通畅，国内外市场不能够自行调节。而货币的汇率也不能自行调节。在一旦出口增长的速度停止或降低，而生产能力的增长并没有降低的情况下，通货膨胀就是必然发生的自我调节。
要改变这种自我调节的模式，就必须改变不合理的经济模式，停止靠损人利己快速地发展经济。也就是说，第一要停止靠损害中国老百姓的利益积累财富的模式，第二停止靠剥削进口国市场来扩大出口的模式，使得国内外市场可以自行调节，同时稳步提高国内工薪阶层的收入，扩大国内市场。一年之内即可化解国内的恶性通货膨胀，逐步走上可持续发展的道路。
这个经济模式的转变的对国内外的经济关系都是件好事。国内的工薪阶层收入增加，而且停止通货膨胀后所有人的实际收入都进一步增加。老百姓的日子好过了，社会也就比现在稳定了。国内市场的扩大对今后经济发展的后劲有正面的效果，将会在一两年之后显示出它的活力。
这在国际关系上也会产生重要的正面效果。对发达国家的出口减少了，进口增加了，结果是减少了贸易顺差，也减少了贸易摩擦。这有利于发达国家恢复经济增长速度，走出经济衰退的阴影。一两年之后，经济开始增长的发达国家市场，会自动扩大他们的进口，反过来促进中国的出口。全世界就真正走出了这一次的经济危机。
这样皆大欢喜的事情为什么好事多磨呢？为什么一大堆的经济学家和政府决策人就不懂呢？不是他们不懂，而是他们是从不同的角度看问题。大多数人获利而他们要赔本，所以他们就不懂了。其实，不是不懂，是立场不同。
出口减少，是靠出口生意发大财的商人，和靠这些商人发大财的腐败官员们不愿意看到的。所以商业部就不愿意，各级现任官僚们中的大部分就会不愿意。进口的优质商品占领国内市场，同时迫使国内生产企业进入淘汰期。在这个企业技术集中调整期中的被淘汰者们，和靠着吃劣质商品生产者而富起来的地方官员们不愿意。当然，靠垄断市场倒卖劣质廉价商品发大财的西方大企业们也不愿意，包括他们豢养的经济学家们也不愿意。
这就是当前全世界的聪明人似乎都变傻了的真正原因。不过形势还是比人强。西方的民主社会不会允许政治家们和学者们长期靠装傻来欺骗人民。所以欧洲和美国的经济衰退开始迫使中国政府走出骗局了。中国本身即将来临的经济崩溃，和越来越多的赤贫人口，也在迫使中国政府停止损人利己的策略。
现在的问题就是看中国的大资产阶级是否能够明智地接受这个现实。接受了，大家都有好日子过，只不过是他们损失超额的利润而已。不接受，他们将和中共一起崩溃。逃到外国避难的可能性不太大，因为积累多年仇恨的中国人民是不会放过他们的，丧失了这次走出危机的机会的国际社会也不会接受他们避难。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2010/WeiJS101228ChinaWayOut32NewYear2011.mp3
（撰写并录音于2010年12月28日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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