Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A601-W368
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A601-W368
Release
Date: January 15, 2011
发布日：2011年1月15日
Topic:
Hu Jintao's Visit to the United States -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 胡锦涛访美 -- 魏京生
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Hu
Jintao's Visit to the United States
--
Wei Jingsheng
Chinese
President Hu Jintao is going to visit the United States again. As in the past, the Chinese Embassy is
distributing bonuses for attracting Chinese students to attend the welcome
ceremony. But this time there are
new programs. Students at the
University of Maryland, which is near the US Capital Washington DC, are being
offered $55 each. This amount is
obviously less than the past $100 each.
However, they are much luckier than the Chinese students in
Philadelphia, which is more than 200 km away. Those students are offered only $20 each. So, there are people screaming out loud
that it is not fair. Some decided
not to use their own money to subsidize these activities. Probably, there will be a few people
who would pay out of their own pocket to welcome President Hu whom other people
will think are sick. Over all,
these welcome ceremonies are not the same as before, which could be related to
the officials in the Foreign Affairs faction losing favor nowadays. President Hu has long since declared
that they will no longer engage in activities like these welcome ceremonies, so
others can justifiably not give enough funding. But nose browning is important, so the result of "self-financing"
is this "unfair treatment".
We have to feel sorry for these people who try so hard to brown their
noses.
Putting
these funny things aside, there is some significance in this US visit by Hu
Jintao. The biggest difference
from before is that Hu has to make major concessions and engage in substantive
negotiations under heavy internal and external pressures. He will not be successful by simply
making a show. Instead, it is for
sure that Hu must make concessions.
The issue is only regarding what will be put on the table and how
much. Not only are the Americans
expecting him to make concessions, the Chinese people inside China are hoping
concessions as well. Concessions
on the currency exchange rate and the foreign trade system are related to the
interests of both the Chinese and the Americans. When one has prosperity, the other will also have
prosperity. When one loses, the
other also will lose. So this time,
the interests of the average people in both countries are indeed integrated
together.
So
what concessions can Hu make this time? Both sides know the first is the economic concession. There are too many pressures from the
American people demanding the rise of the Chinese currency RenMinBi's value and
the lifting of China's import restrictions. These concessions are a must. The Chinese currency value went up a little before Hu's
visit, as a small token to the USA.
Yet, obviously, it was far less than the expectation of the USA and thus
unacceptable. It could only be
counted as a start; what follows will be depend on Hu's dialogue.
So
which kind of choices does Hu have?
He basically has two strategies to choose from.
The
first is to make the least possible economic concession, but to make some major
concession in international affairs to meet the needs of American politics,
such as the North Korea issue, Iran nuclear issue, Pakistan's nuclear issue,
and the South China Sea issue, etc.
That means, if Hu does not sell out his friends, then he has to sell
sovereignty. Further, after he
sells out friends, the problems are only delayed instead of solved. However, by then, for Hu Jintao these
problems would become someone else's problems. By next year, he will not have to worry about it, so it is
just as well to let those who take over have the headaches.
The
advantage of doing so is not offending the big capitalists both inside China
and outside. However, after he
steps down, will these big capitalists still give him face and offer him
favors? Can he get some promises
in advance like some American politicians do? If not, then probably no one would be grateful to him,
because his successor must make the concessions that he is not doing now. Otherwise, it will not only be
unfavorable to the USA, but also unfavorable to his successor in maintaining
the Communist regime. By then, no
one will remember that it was Hu who allowed economic conditions to persist for
one more year. The capitalists who
benefited will not remember his benefits, while his successor will resent him
for such a mess. However, from Hu
Jintao's rigid and inflexible character, he's likely to play such a role that
does a hard but thankless job.
If
Hu Jintao really takes this strategy, then the Americans are pushed to a
corner. The hardliners in the US
Congress will clearly have the upper hand. A trade war centered on increasing the import tariff will be
started. To protect its own
interest, the USA will not tolerate anymore of the Chinese government's trade
policies which benefits only itself at others' expenses. This is both reasonable and
beneficial. No one could prevent
the USA from protecting its own interest by using tariff barriers. By then, Chinese exports will have
dropped sharply, yet without gain the benefit of an appreciated Chinese
currency. Meanwhile, the inflation
and shortage of goods inside China will force China to increase imports.
Then,
the only difference is that there will be no buffer period to adjust the
economic structure normally.
Everything includes its timing and how will be determined by the
Americans and China will have lost its initiative to control the economic
pace. To summarize: to survive by
relying on the others. Whoever the
successors are will be out of luck and scolded by the others. How then could not the successors hate
Hu Jintao? Not only the successors
will hate Hu, the average people in China will hate him too. That is because he only took care of
the interest of the big capitalists, thus lost opportunities for the country
and the people, and causing China to be cornered. By then, even the big capitalists who could not earn excess
profits will scold him. So
choosing foreign policy concessions over economic concessions will be a
decision that harms others yet not benefit himself.
If
Hu has a wise team of assistants, then they should take the second option. That is to persuade him to seize the
opportunity to gain, in the way of pushing the boat with the current, making
major economic adjustment through international pressure by trading the rising
of Chinese currency and opening trade relationships in exchange for favored
policies over technologies. This
action will be greatly benefit China's economic restructuring and technological
upgrading, as well as gaining the buffering period to gradually expand the
domestic market. The American
society will also find this option more acceptable. So the results would be happy for both. I think the Americans will also give Hu
enough face to be able to show his list of successes when he returns to
China. This is what Deng Xiaoping
did when he visited the USA back then, which we should not say had an
unsuccessful outcome. As a matter
of fact, the Chinese Communist regime was able to extend another 30 years
largely due to Deng being able to treat the interests of the USA fairly.
Probably
the only unhappy group would be the young "patriotic cynics". This model which is of benefit to both
sides does not fit dreams of hegemony expansion for these young patriotic
cynics. The group of young Chinese
patriotic cynics is a very special group, due to the poverty of the society and
their own misfortunes. There is no
place for them to vent their extreme anger, yet they have no guts to challenge
social injustice. Therefore, they
release their hatred in the name of patriotism and racism, which is not as easy
to be punished by the government.
This is true in all society.
When the economy is bad and even getting worse, there is an increase in
the degree of xenophobia, even Nazism.
In ancient China, revolt and dynastic change would occur.
So
it will be only wishful thinking for the Chinese government to rely on these
patriotic cynics to maintain its hold on society. In the end, it will be shooting itself in the foot. I wish the Communist successors would
think very carefully.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110113HuJTvisitsUSA.mp3
(Written
and recorded on January 13, 2011.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A601-W368
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A601-W368
Release
Date: January 15, 2011
发布日：2011年1月15日
Topic:
Hu Jintao's Visit to the United States -- by Wei Jingsheng
标题： 胡锦涛访美 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2011/report2011-01/WeiJS110115HuJTvisitsA601-W368.htm
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胡锦涛访美
-- 魏京生
中国国家主席胡锦涛又要访问美国了。和过去一样，大使馆又在发放奖金吸引留学生参加欢迎仪式。不过这次有新节目。首都华盛顿附近的马里兰大学，每人给五十五元。这比过去的每人一百元显然是少了，但是比远在两百多公里之外的费城留学生要幸运一些，费城留学生每人只能得到二十元。于是大声喊冤者有之，决定不会自掏腰包者有之。估计也有少数自费欢迎胡主席的人，被大家认为是有病。总之今非昔比的现况，可能和外交系的官员们失势有关。既然胡主席早就声明今后不再搞欢迎之类的活动，别人就可以名正言顺地不给拨款。可是马屁又不能不拍，自筹资金的结果就出现了不公平待遇。可怜的马屁精们。
笑话归笑话。此次胡锦涛访美不同于以往的最大特点，就是在内忧外患的重重压力下，不得不作出重大的让步，不得不进行实质性的谈判。这不是装装样子，摆摆架子，争个面子就可以圆满成功。而是必须让步，争的只是让什么和让多少的问题。不仅美国人期望他的让步，国内的人民也在期望着他的让步。因为大家期待中的汇率和外贸体制上的让步，同时关系到中美两国老百姓的利益。一荣俱荣，一损俱损。中美两国老百姓的利益这一次可是真正结合在一起了。
那么胡总这次能做什么让步呢？双方都知道首先是经济上的让步。美国人要求人民币升值、开放进口限制的压力太大。这方面必须让，人民币在胡锦涛访问前已做了小幅度的升值，算是给美国人的小礼物。但这显然距离美国的预期相差太远，不足以让美方满意地接受。所以只能算是一个开头，后续的就看胡锦涛谈得如何了。
胡锦涛有什么样的选择呢？他基本上有两种策略可供选择。
第一种是在经济上最少让步，但在国际事务上作一些重大让步来满足美国政治的需要，如朝鲜问题、伊朗核问题、巴基斯坦核问题，或者南海问题。也就是说，他不出卖朋友就得出卖主权。而且出卖了朋友之后，问题依然只是暂缓而已，并没有解决。但对胡锦涛来说，那是别人的事情了。明年这些就不归他管了，让接班的人来头疼吧。
这样做的好处是不得罪国内外的大资产阶级。但是在他下台后，这些大资产阶级还会看他的面子给他什么好处吗？不知道他是不是像美国政客那样，预先得到了什么承诺。如果没有，可能不会有人领他的什么情，因为他的后任必须要做他现在不做的让步。否则不但对美国不利，对他的后任维持政权也很不利。到那时候没人会记得他多坚持了一年时间。得到好处的资本家不会记得他的好处，接了个烂摊子的后任们会恨死他。但以他那种僵硬呆板的性格来看，他很可能是这种吃力不讨好的角色。
如果胡锦涛真的采取这个策略，美国人就被逼到了墙角。美国国会中的强硬派就会明显占上风。一场以增加进口税为中心的贸易战就开场了。美国为了自己的利益不再容忍中国损人利己的贸易政策，既有理也有利。没人能阻挡美国采取关税壁垒保护自己的利益。届时中国的出口仍然会锐减，而且得不到人民币升值的好处。而国内的通货膨胀和物资短缺也会迫使中国增加进口。
结果唯一不同的就是没有一个缓冲期来正常地调整经济结构。一切都要看美国人怎么决定，什么时间决定，从而失去了控制经济节奏的主动权。一言以蔽之：仰人鼻息。谁接班谁倒霉，谁接班谁挨骂。他们能不恨死胡锦涛吗？不但接班的恨，老百姓也恨。因为他照顾大资本的利益，丧失的是国家和人民的机会，使中国陷入困境。到时候连那些赚不到超额利润的大资本家们也要开骂。这可真是个损人不利己的决策。
胡总如果有一帮明智的助手班子，就应该采取第二种选择。那就是劝他顺水推舟，借着国际压力来进行经济大调整。用人民币升值和开放平等贸易关系，来换取技术上的优惠政策。这将大大有利于中国经济调整和技术升级，也给逐步扩大国内市场争取了缓冲期。而且美国社会也比较容易接受。对中美双方都是皆大欢喜的结果。我想美国人也会给足胡总面子，让他有一个回国可以交代的清单。这就是邓小平当年访问美国的模式。不能说不成功。实际上中共政权能够再延续这三十年，和邓小平摆平了美国的利益有很大的关系。
唯一不高兴的可能是那些爱国愤青们。这种对双方都有利的模式不符合他们那个膨胀了的霸权梦。由于社会的贫困和自身遭遇的不幸而数量庞大的中国愤青群体，是一个很特殊的群体。他们一肚子愤怒无处发泄，又没有胆量挑战社会不公正。于是就借着政府不便于惩罚的爱国主义，种族主义等等来发泄心中的仇恨。这在所有社会里都是经济越不好情况越严重，甚至发生排外风潮以至于纳粹主义。在中国古代就会发生造反和王朝更替。
想依靠爱国愤青来保持政权稳固，是一种痴心妄想。最后一定会搬起石头砸了自己的脚。望中共的接班人们三思。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110113HuJTvisitsUSA.mp3
（撰写并录音于2011年1月13日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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