Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A607-W371
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A607-W371
Release
Date: January 23, 2011
发布日：2011年1月23日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XXXIII): Issues after Hu Jintao Visited the United
States -- Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之三十三：胡锦涛访美后的问题 -- 魏京生
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The
Way Out for China (Part XXXIII): Issues after Hu Jintao Visited the United
States
--
Wei Jingsheng
Hu
Jintao's visit to the United States is over. Just as I anticipated, in negotiations with Americans he had
to make concessions. However, he
remained tight on the currency exchange rate in order to take care of the
interests of the big capitalists of the two countries. He even made a small concession on the
human rights issue, but not the exchange rate. The exchange rate is the fundamental condition for the big
businesses in both countries to make excess profits. So Hu Jintao is indeed a "good" Secretary-General
who works wholeheartedly for the capitalists.
Hu
Jintao brought with him unprecedented large orders. The total was initially claimed to be 100 billion U.S.
dollars, but was ultimately negotiated at 45 billion dollars. The failed half of the deals were
likely related to U.S. defense technology, which is not allowed, or the bidding
was too low. It looks like the
negotiators already calculated that the deals would not be as much as the so
claimed 100 billion, but that amount was offered anyway to trick the big US
businesses to mobilize their lobbying forces for Hu's US visit so as to
guarantee the best reception and enough face were given during Hu's visit.
This
deliberate calculation by Vice Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai
Bingguo could be called as wishful thinking. Because, if you cannot stand the pressure of the United
States, or trade wars and currency wars really start, then the loss of trade on
China side will certainly to be more than 100 billion dollars in addition to
the loss of initiative. Even if
concessions are made regarding the exchange rate, they will still lose the huge
trade surplus. However, by
blocking the mouth of the U.S. Congress with this amount of trade value in
advance and delaying the time of the currency exchange war, China will be able
to protect the excess profits of the large enterprises of both countries and
still do not have to start adjusting the domestic market. It will be able to maintain
domestic inflation, and thus be able to fill the treasury deficit with the
extorted money from the average Chinese.
Therefore,
the real significance for Hu Jintao's visit to the United States was to
formally define the so-called "basic national policy" of continued
inflation without economic policy reforms in China. Hu Jintao is kind of like Hua Guofeng, the abolished
Communist leader in the late 1970's.
Their "basic national policy" is: "execute according to
the already established guidelines".
They neither want to engage in political reform, nor in economic
reform. Instead, they would rather
let China's politics and economics rot rapidly in the stagnant water, until the
day of collapse.
Why
so? Mainly because their wishful
thinking is really fooling themselves while trying to fool the others. According to the Communist education
that Hu Jintao received, to make concessions on the human rights issue is a
major issue of principle. He
certainly would not take such an "unwise move" unless he had no other
choice. To him, that is already a
huge concession. However, to the
others, paying lip service by a little self-criticism is a concession with no
substance. Even releasing a few
well-known political prisoners is not enough to quell the pressure demanding
the appreciation of the Chinese currency.
This
is because that the current situation is totally different than that during the
negotiations between Jiang Zemin and Bill Clinton. At that time, the American economy was OK and Americans
cared about the violation of other people's rights. However, nowadays, the Americans care about their own
interests. Their own interests are
more important that other people's rights. This is human nature that we should not blame.
Although
Wang Qishan and Dai Bingguo designed this plot for Hu Jintao to skillfully slip
out of a predicament, it did not fool the others. The Americans did not just refuse later, but rejected it
right then. While the president
accepted the orders, the US Congress already made a posture to show they were
not enough to accept. Hu Jintao
and his high-ranked advisors forgot that in the US system Congress makes
policy, while the president implements.
So they think the plot was skillful, but in fact it is only served to
deceive themselves.
Why
do I say that they are deceiving themselves? That is because they underestimated the intelligence of
Americans. When the Chinese
currency RMB appreciates, the reduced trade deficit will be more than that
amount. Will the Americans not
understand something so simple?
The $45 billion in business orders only reduces the trade deficit in one
way. Fair trade will bring
reduction both ways, doubling the speed of trade balance and increasing
employment in the USA. Only a fool
will take just one instead of two.
Of course, to obtain one in the hand first and then strive for the
second is a more secure approach.
This is why the Americans played the fool. These Chinese Communist leaders who think that they could
cheat the others, are really fooling themselves.
What
effect will this policy of "executing according to the already established
guidelines" bring to the economy and politics in China? This is what concerns our people in
China the most. Although business
orders were given to the USA, the Chinese delegation did not open trade, and
did not increase the merchandise in the domestic markets inside China. The inflation in China will
continue. Bank loans will increase
because of increased orders, which will further fuel inflation. Because the same Chinese-made products
are more expensive inside China than outside, now the importing business will
make excessive profits and thus make the average Chinese lose more money. This is the currency recovery plan by
Wang Qishan, who is responsible for finance.
If
the appreciation rate of the Chinese currency RMB remains slow, foreign exports
will remain strong. Then the
domestic market in China will not develop, and the trade surplus will continue
to grow as in recent quarters.
Therefore, trade friction will not be reduced, and the pressure from the
United States will not be reduced either.
As a result, the diplomatic situation will remain grim. Dai Bingguo, who is responsible for
foreign affairs, will be held responsible, if he can still take
responsibility. So despite this
huge business order to the USA now, that policy of "executing according to
the already established guidelines" will lead everything back to the
starting point, again to be reassembled into a state of trade war. This is what Hu Jintao got from his
last state visit to the USA.
In
fact, the situation has yet to reach an irreversible stage. If the wiser faction within the Chinese
Communist regime still has the capacity, if they could treat the big orders as
a way of expressing initial sincerity, if they want to take this opportunity to
reform economic and political policies drastically, then there is still a possibility
to turn things around for the better.
The following are a few steps of highest priority.
1:
Release political prisoners, even just a few well-known political prisoners, in
an effort to express the sincerity of Hu Jintao's commitment.
2:
Accelerate the pace for the RMB appreciation, and open foreign currency with
free currency exchange. The reason
is to recover money in a fair manner to curb inflation.
3:
Reduce trade barriers and accelerate the automatic adjustment function of the
market economy. This will rapidly
increase the amount of goods in the domestic market, while accelerating the
speed of industrial restructuring and thus shift even more production into the
domestic market.
4.
Stop of playing games with the North Korean and Iranian nuclear issues, in
order to reduce the international political disputes. This will enable a focus on solving livelihood issues such
as education and health care domestically, which might be able to ease the
growing social crisis inside of China.
The
important time is coming as the Chinese Communist regime increasingly slips
into crisis. The key to maintain
social stability depends on the ability to change course and reform the
outdated wrong policies. I wish
the wiser people within the Communist Party would be able to see the situation
clearly and create a new situation in history.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110121ChinaWayOut33HuJTvisitsUSA.mp3
(Written
on January 20 and recorded on January 21, 2010. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A607-W371
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A607-W371
Release
Date: January 23, 2011
发布日：2011年1月23日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XXXIII): Issues after Hu Jintao Visited the United
States -- Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之三十三：胡锦涛访美后的问题 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2011/report2011-01/WeiJS110123ChinaWayOut33HuJTvisitsA607-W371.htm
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《中国的出路》之三十三：胡锦涛访美后的问题
-- 魏京生
胡锦涛对美国的访问已经结束了。正如我事先预料的那样：在和美国人的谈判中，他不能不作出让步。但是为了照顾中美两国大资产阶级的利益，他仍然紧紧地把住了汇率这道关口。他甚至在人权话题上都可以让一小步，但是汇率绝不松口。因为这是中美两国大企业赚取超额利润的根本条件。胡锦涛确实是全心全意为资本家服务的好书记。
胡锦涛这次访问带来了前所未有的巨额订单。声称有一千亿美元，最终谈成了四百五十亿美元。没谈成的一半估计是美国不准出口的国防科技，或者出价太低。看来他们声称的一千亿，事先是已经算计好了最终不会出那么多。给出个数字是为了让美国大企业上钩，为胡锦涛访美出动游说力量，以保证胡锦涛能在出访期间风风光光地得到最好的接待和足够的面子。
主管金融的国务院副总理王岐山和主持外交的国务委员戴秉国给胡总算的这笔帐可以称得上是如意算盘。如果顶不住美国的压力，或者真的开始贸易战和汇率战，那么中国损失的贸易额肯定不会少于一千亿美元，而且还会丧失主动权。即使在汇率上让步，也会损失巨额的贸易顺差。所以，事先用这个贸易额来堵住美国国会的嘴，拖延汇率战开始的时间，就仍然有可能保住中美大企业的超额利润；仍然可以不必开始调整国内市场；仍然可以维持国内的通货膨胀；从而依靠搜刮老百姓的腰包来填补国库的亏空。
所以，胡锦涛这次访问美国的真正意义，就在于正式确定了继续通货膨胀和不进行经济政策改革的所谓“基本国策”。他和华国锋有点像。他们的“基本国策”就是：按既定方针办。他们既不想搞政治体制改革，也不想搞经济体制改革，情愿让中国的政治和经济在一潭死水里迅速地垮下去，直到崩溃的一天。
为什么会这样呢?主要是因为他们的如意算盘，其实是自欺欺人。按照胡锦涛所受的共产党的教育，在人权问题上向西方敌人让步，是个原则性的大问题。他肯定是被逼无奈才出此下策。他认为让步已经够大的了。可是在正常人看来，口惠而实不至的几句自我批评，实在算不上是让步。即使事后释放几个著名的政治犯，也不足以平息要求人民币升值的压力。
这是因为：现在和江泽民与克林顿谈判时的形势完全不同。当年的美国人关心的是别人的人权受到了侵犯，现在的美国人关心的是自己的利益受到了侵犯。自己的利益比别人的人权更重要，这也是人之常情，无可厚非。
所以王岐山、戴秉国给胡锦涛设计的这个金蝉脱壳之计，其实上骗不了人。美国人不是事后，而是当场就不接受。总统先拿下订单再说，而国会却已摆出一副不接受的架势。胡总和他的高参们忘了：美国的体制是国会制定政策，总统执行。所以说他们自以为得计，实际上是自欺欺人。
之所以说自欺欺人，是因为他们低估了美国人的智商。人民币升值后减少的贸易逆差不会少于这个数字，难道美国人不懂这个简单的道理吗？
订单只是单向的减少，而公平贸易带来的是双向的减少，使贸易平衡和增加就业的速度加倍。傻瓜才选择一个而不要两个。当然，先拿到一个再争取第二个更稳妥一些。这就是美国人装傻的原因。以为把别人骗了的人，其实自己更傻。
这个按既定方针办的政策，对中国的经济和政治有什么影响呢？这是国内朋友们最关心的问题。订单给出去了，可是并没有开放贸易，也就是说并没有增加国内市场的商品量。通货膨胀仍将持续下去。银行贷款反倒因为订单而增加，会进一步加剧通货膨胀。因为国内外价格倒挂，进口企业将会赚取超额的利润，老百姓的腰包会进一步被榨取。这就是负责金融的王岐山的回收货币计划。
如果人民币仍然维持缓慢的升值，外贸出口也仍将维持强劲的势头。从而国内市场仍将得不到开发，贸易顺差也仍将和最近几个季度一样增长。因此，贸易摩擦不会减少，美国的压力也不会减少。结果是，外交形势依然严峻，负责外交的戴秉国将为此承担责任，如果他还能承担责任的话。这个按既定方针办的政策，使得发放巨额订单后不久，一切又都回到了原点，重新进入到贸易战的集结状态。这就是胡锦涛最后一次国事访问所得到的结果。
其实，事情还没有到了无可挽回的地步。假如中共内明智的一派有能力的话；假如他们可以把巨额订单当作释放初步诚意的话；假如他们想利用这次机会大幅度改革经济和政治政策的话，事情就还有峰回路转的可能。下面几件事情是当务之急。
第一：释放政治犯，哪怕是几个著名的政治犯，以表示胡锦涛的承诺是有诚意的。
第二：加快人民币升值的速度，并且开放外币自由兑换。为了以公平的方式回收货币，抑制通货膨胀。
第三：减少贸易壁垒，加速市场经济的自动调节功能。这可以迅速增加国内市场的商品量，同时加快产业调整的速度，让更多的产能转移到国内市场上来。
第四：停止玩弄北朝鲜和伊朗的核问题，以减少国际政治纠纷。这样可以集中精力解决国内的教育、医疗等民生问题，也许可以缓和日益增长的社会危机。
在共产党的政权日益陷入危机的重大关头，是否有能力改弦更张，改革已经过时的错误政策，是维持社会稳定的关键。希望共产党内的明智之士能够看清形势，开创历史的新局面。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110121ChinaWayOut33HuJTvisitsUSA.mp3
（撰写于2011年1月20日，录音于1月21日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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