Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A611-W375
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A611-W375
Release
Date: February 4, 2011
发布日：2011年2月4日
Topic:
If Millions of Chinese Took to the Streets, Would the Chinese Army Still Open
Fire? (Voice of America Interview of Wei Jingsheng)
标题：若百万中国人上街，军队是否还会开枪？（美国之音）
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If
Millions of Chinese Took to the Streets, Would the Chinese Army Still Open
Fire?
--
by Voice of America reporter: Yan Qing, in Washington, DC
During
the large-scale protests in Egypt, the Egyptian army's response has received
world attention. An associated key
issue for the Chinese people both inside and outside China is: if the protests
happening now in Cairo were happening in Beijing, or if the 1989 protests in
China happen again today, what actions would the Chinese army take?
*
People Recall the Year of 1989 *
When
he was interviewed by Voice of America, Professor Vincent Wei-cheng Wang, chair
of Department of Political Science at the University of Richmond, said:
"Seeing the situation in Cairo in the last a few days, it is hard for
people not to recall what happened in China almost 21 years ago. The pictures were so similar. That was the 1989 Tiananmen
Movement."
In
June 1989, the Chinese troops opened fire at the demonstrating protesters. This action has been written into
history. So far, the Egyptian army
has displayed understanding, peace, and even a supportive attitude toward the
large numbers of protesters. The
whole world is paying great attention to and is highly appreciative of their
role. So, people cannot help but
think that if what happened in Egypt was taking place in China today, would
there be bloodshed again? Would
the Chinese army still stand on the government side? What kind of figures and actions would the "People's
Liberation Army" be written into history again?
*
Under the generous rewards, one must be faithful? *
Professor
Vincent Wei-cheng Wang said: " If what is happening in Egypt today
occurred in Mainland China, it is hard to imagine that there would be military
defections to support the people and to overthrow the leaders. But it is hard to say."
Wang
said that one of the reasons is that after 1989, the Chinese Communist leaders
realized that it was the military that saved the regime, so they gave the
military special attention. Both
politically and economically, they gave the military a lot of benefits. He said: "The Chinese Communist
Party gave more and more resources to the military. In addition, the past few leaders such as Hu Jintao and
Jiang Zemin have promoted a lot of PLA generals during their terms. Their purpose was very clear: to keep
the regime stable, they need the support of the armed forces."
*
WEI Jingsheng: Soldiers Are Ordinary People Too; the Tragedy Will Not Be
Repeated *
Wei
Jingsheng, who has been paying attention to China's democratic process, was
imprisoned in China for many years, and now is forced into exile, does not
think so. He said: "I think
the current situation is totally different than 20 years ago. Chinese soldiers, their field of view,
including their judgments on ongoing affairs, are not the same. In fact even 20 years ago Deng Xiaoping
forced the army to open fire reluctantly.
Now, I think that what happened 20 years ago will not be repeated."
When
he was interviewed by VOA, Wei Jingsheng said that a series of changes
occurring in China in the past 20 years made him more optimistic about this
issue.
He
said: "I do not think the Chinese soldiers are some bastards; I think they also have conscience, just
like ordinary people. Back 20
years ago in 1989, it was only because many reasons gathered together to make
them play a role in suppressing the people. But today, I think they would not make the same mistake.
"
Wei
Jingsheng analysis that the Chinese people, including military personnel, are
longing for a democratic society more than 20 years ago. Just as the Egyptian people, Chinese
are yearning for a country with justice and freedom.
Wei
Jingsheng said: "I think they (the Chinese soldiers) may have a different
view about China's future than they did 20 years ago. Twenty years ago, most of them still believed that the
Chinese Communist Party would be able to lead China to a better future. However, the reality of the past 20
years tells everyone that the real situation is not so; the Communist Party has
made it even worse. The gap
between rich and poor is greater; the ordinary people are living in more
hardship; social injustice has become widespread; and the regime is
unreasonable, openly unreasonable.
All these actions have an impact on the military because the military
personnel themselves are common people; especially the soldiers are ordinary
common people with families experiencing hardship."
Wei
said that his optimism is not only from changes in the quality of military
personnel, but also due to the fact that nowadays the military personnel are
able to get a lot of information from outside.
*
Lohman: The Army's Party Color is Stronger *
During
his interview with the VOA, Walter Lohman, Director of The Heritage
Foundation's Asian Studies Center, said: over the years, the Chinese army's
degree of "listening to the Party" has increased. This could be seen from the army's
crackdown in Tibet and Xinjiang, or its role in what are described by the
Chinese officials as "riots".
*
Wei Jingsheng: Soldiers' Minds Follow the People's Minds, An Order of
Suppression Will be Hard to Carry Out" *
However,
Wei Jingsheng has a different view.
He said: "I do not think so.
In Tibet and Xinjiang at least there was an ethnic issue for the
Communist Party to use as a pretext to convince the military. But if you imagine now a 1989-type
uprising, I think the party will have difficulty finding an excuse for the army
to accept to suppress demonstrators in the streets. If the same thing happened in China as in Egypt, then the
Chinese army will be just like the Egyptian army, refusing to slaughter their
own people. "
Wei
Jingsheng said that the mind change of the Chinese military is happening at all
levels. Further, "even if
higher officers gave the order, I think the middle and lower level officers
would refuse to carry it out. This
situation has happened in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe."
Wei
Jingsheng is 60 years old now.
Starting in 1969, he spent three and a half years in the army. He said, "I was first in Guangxi
and Hunan, and later in Shanxi.
The troop I was in is still in Shanxi now."
So
how do Hu Jintao and other Chinese leaders view the Chinese soldiers'
morale? Wei Jingsheng said:
"I do not think that needs my comment. Hu knows very clearly in his heart. As a matter of fact, he knows it more
clearly than I do. I think that is
why they do not dare to spend that much force to suppress the people on
large-scales."
On
Wednesday, Feb. 2, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen
spoke with Egyptian armed forces Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Sami Hafez
Enan, and highly praised the positive function the Egyptian army is playing in
the direction of a peaceful transition of the country towards democracy.
Original
link:
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110202-EGYPT-CHINA-MILITARY-115153189.html
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A611-W375
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A611-W375
Release
Date: February 4, 2011
发布日：2011年2月4日
Topic:
If Millions of Chinese Took to the Streets, Would the Chinese Army Still Open
Fire? (Voice of America Interview of Wei Jingsheng)
标题：若百万中国人上街，军队是否还会开枪？（美国之音）
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2011/report2011-02/WeiJSonEgypt110204VOAreportA611-W375.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
若百万中国人上街，军队是否还会开枪？
-- 美国之音记者燕青报道
埃及发生大规模抗议以来，埃及军队的反应，一直是举世关注的。中国内外的人士从埃及的局势所联想到的一个关键的问题就是，假如今天在开罗等地发生的抗议发生在北京的话，或者说1989年中国的抗议活动发生在今天的话，中国的军队将如何表现？
*让人回想89年*
美国理士满大学(University of Richmond)政治学系的主任教授王维正(Vincent Wei-cheng Wang)在接受美国之音采访的时候说：“这几天开罗街上的情形，很难不让人回想到在中国，差不多21年前，类似的画面，那就是1989年天安门的运动。”
中国军队在1989年6月对抗议示威民众开了枪，这已经写进了历史。到目前为止，埃及军队对待大批抗议示威民众所表现出的理解、平和、甚至是支持的态度，是全世界都极为瞩目、而且高度赞赏的。那么，人们不禁联想到，假如在埃及发生的一切，今天发生在中国的话，是不是还会出现流血？中国的军队是否还会站在政府一边？“中国人民解放军”会以什么样的形像和举动再次写入历史？
*重赏之下
必有忠心？*
理士满大学的王维正教授说：“如果今天在埃及发生的事情在大陆也发生的话，很难想象说会有军队倒戈，支持人民、推翻领导人的局面；不过也很难讲。”
王维正说，这其中的原因，首先是1989年之后中共领导人意识到最后是军队解救了他们的政权，所以对军队予以特殊的关注，在政治上、经济上，都给予军队很多好处。他说：“中共将越来越多的资源给予军队，然后再加上过去的几位领导人，像胡锦涛、江泽民，在任内大量晋升一些解放军的将领，目的也很清楚，就是说，要政权稳定的话，一定要有军队的支持。”
*魏京生：军人也是百姓
悲剧不会重演*
长期关注中国民主进程、在中国被囚禁多年，如今被迫流亡海外的魏京生不这么认为。他说：“我想现在和20年前已经完全不一样了；中国的军人，他们的视野，包括他们对事务的判断，都已经不一样了。其实20年前，邓小平也是很勉强地，迫使军队开枪的。现在，我想，20年前的事情不会再重演。”
魏京生在接受美国之音采访的时候说，20年后，中国发生的一系列变化，使他在这个问题上抱有乐观的态度。
魏京生说：“我不认为中国的军人都是一些混蛋；我觉得他们也和普通老百姓一样，是有良心的，只不过是在89年、20年前的时候，各种原因凑在一起，他们扮演了镇压老百姓的角色，但是今天，我想他们不会再犯同样的错误。”
魏京生分析说，相比20年前，中国人民、包括军人在内，都更加向往一个民主的社会，和埃及人民一样，向往着一个公正、自由的国家。
魏京生说：“我想他们(中国军人)对中国的前途可能跟20年前有不同的看法；20年前的时候，他们大多数人还是很相信中国共产党能够把中国带向一个更好的前途，但是，20年来的现实告诉大家，实际情况并不如此，而且现在的情况比当时还要糟糕，贫富差距更大了，老百姓处于更加困苦的境地，社会上的不公正发展得更加普遍，而且(当局)还蛮不讲理、公开的蛮不讲理；而所有这些，对军人都有影响，因为军人本身也是老百姓，特别是士兵，他们就是普通的老百姓。”
魏京生说，他的乐观，不仅源于军人的素质的变化，而且也跟现在军人如今能够广泛获取外界信息有很大关系。
*罗曼：党军色彩更强*
美国传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)亚洲研究中心的负责人沃尔特.罗曼(Walter Lohman)在接受美国之音采访的时候说，中国军队过去这些年里，“听党的话”的程度，似乎比过去有过之而无不及。这一点，他说，从军队在西藏和新疆地区的镇压、或者是中国官方所说的“暴乱”当中所扮演的角色，就可以看出来。
*魏京生：军心会随民心
镇压之令难行*
不过，魏京生对此持有不同的看法。他说：“我不这么认为；因为在西藏和新疆，至少还有一个民族问题，共产党可以作为借口，来说服军人，但是如果现在还想像89年一样，让军队上街去镇压示威的老百姓，我想他们将很难找到军人们能够接受的理由。如果真的发生像埃及一样的事情，那么军队也会像埃及的军队一样，拒绝屠杀自己的老百姓。”
魏京生说，中国军队人心走向的变化，发生在各个阶层，而且“即使高级军官下令，我想中下级军官也会拒绝执行；之前，前苏联和东欧已经有过这样的情形。”
现年60岁的魏京生1969年入伍，曾经在部队里度过三年半的时间。他说“先是在广西和湖南，后来到了陕西，我们那个部队现在还在陕西。”
胡锦涛等中国领导人如何看中国的军心呢？对此，魏京生说：“我想不用我说，他心里很清楚，实际上比我还清楚。我认为，这也正是为什么他们现在不敢下那么大的力量大规模地镇压老百姓。”
星期三(2月2日)，美国参谋长联席会议主席麦克.马伦上将与埃及参谋长安南中将通了电话，再次对埃及军队在国家朝着民主方向和平过渡过程中发挥的积极作用表示高度赞赏。
原始连接：
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/news/20110202-EGYPT-CHINA-MILITARY-115153189.html
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