Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A615-W379
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A615-W379
Release
Date: March 1, 2011
发布日：2011年3月1日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XXXV): China’s Jasmine Revolution -- Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之三十五：中国的茉莉花革命 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
Note:
Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese
parts of this release. If this
mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request
for special delivery to us or visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2011/report2011-03/WeiJS110301ChinaWayOut35ChineseJasmineA615-W379.htm which
contains identical information.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
The
Way Out for China (Part XXXV): China's Jasmine Revolution
--
Wei Jingsheng
In
the last a couple of months, the Jasmine Revolution in the Arabic countries has
risen to such a height that it already has gone beyond those countries and expanded
world-wide. Chinese youths also
learned from it, and called for a Chinese Jasmine Revolution on February
20. However, the Communist Party
was nervous and ready for them.
The party emphasized using high-tech to "maintain
stability". Due to the youth's
lack of experience and underestimation of the capacity of the Communists, the
event ended without too much activity.
On the contrary, it ended up with many leaders of the movement being
detained and arrested. It seems
the gain was not worth the loss.
As
a matter of fact, this perception is not true. Naturally, young people lack experience, that is
normal. However, the young people
were full of energy and dared to sacrifice for their ideology. This sacrifice refutes those who look
down on young people and say the newer generations are worse than the older
ones. It shows that every
generation has its talented and brave people. Experience could be learned and accumulated. A person who falls could learn to get
up. Like the waves in the Yangtze
River, the front waves are pushed by the waves behind. As long as we have successors, there
will be success one day.
However,
the views of critics are valuable.
If we examine the Jasmine Revolution in the Arab countries, we could
gain a lot of experience. In
comparison with the success and failure of this Jasmine Revolution, we will see
the gap between the Arabic and the Chinese people.
I
think the first issue is the wrong timing. In Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya, resentment had been building
for years, reaching a tumultuous level.
This resentment finally resulted in the momentum of falling dominoes sparked by one incident. However, the Jasmine Revolution in
China only relied on the news of the revolutions in the Arab countries instead
of being launched from the mood of Chinese society within. Thus the movement only floated on the
surface without a solid foundation from the masses.
Indeed
Chinese society is just like Egypt, with extreme exploitation from bureaucratic
capitalists. It is also suffering
from the pain of inflation and massive unemployment. However, people have not focused their pain on the target of
the Communist Party. Instead,
their attentions are spread over various minor issues and related people. This atmosphere is quite different from
that in 1989. At that time,
although people's aim was not very high, being limited only to anti-corruption,
it was a goal that people in whole China mostly recognized. Although there was no organization,
then it was a pre-loaded situation.
That uprising was very similar to the recent Arab revolutions.
This
time the Jasmine Revolution in China is not in that position. Although there is the pain of forced
demotions, lay-offs, exploitation, and not being allowed to speak out, the
reaction is not focused on the unreasonable and dictatorial system of the
Chinese Communists. When the mood
of the resistance has not reached an enraged state, imitation of others'
activities such as calling for demonstrations naturally would result in what
happened on February 20. Only when
the peoples' mood has reached that boiling point, then any one incident could
trigger a collapse as happened during the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia.
The
above analysis shows that controlling the rhythm and timing of the movement is
the essential experience we must learn from all the revolutions that were
successful and unsuccessful. With
only the passion, the success of the revolution, or even major achievement in
changing a social system, is unlikely.
Every major change of a social system that on the surface may look
accidental in reality is not only the result of years of promotion and
agitation, but also the fruit of choosing the correct time and right
target. Even when there is mounting
public indignation due to years of promotion and agitation, the wrong selection
of time and target will also lead to the failure of the revolution. For more than two decades now the main
reason for the Chinese revolution wandering in the low valley is due to the
wrong selection of time and target, instead of a lack of social impetus.
Take
the recent Chinese Jasmine Revolution as an example. Its goal was to overthrow the Communist Party to establish a
democratic system. This goal is
indeed correct in principle.
However, the impetus for the people to sacrifice their blood for a
beautiful future which has not appeared is far less urgent and emotional than
to try to relieve the current pain.
Currently, the pain that most Chinese understand is not due to a lack of
democracy and human rights, but due to inflation and the wealth gap from the
extreme exploitation. Losing daily
necessities such as rice and salt would result in one call being responded to
by the thousands immediately. In
comparison, the terms of democracy and human rights are more like songs of the
elite now, which lack the direct responses of many.
There
has been no single democratic revolution that was mobilized by the slogan of
democracy. Instead, it was only
after the revolution that people chose a new democratic system. For every individual, there is a most
important goal in his mind. Only
when these goals are merged into a trend, there comes the burst of the
revolution. Only when the objectives
of the revolution are integrated into the objectives of the most people, will
that revolution go on in the way of following the cracks in bamboo. Only when the songs of the elite are
wrapped by the daily essentials of the average folks, could we gain the
responses of thousands from one call.
We then could reach the highest goal, by starting with the lowest aim.
The
first step would be the publicity and promotion of new ideas. Without the pioneers of democracy such
as Thomas Jefferson and John Adams, there would not be a democratic system in
the USA. Instead, there would have
been a revolution like that in Brazil - an overthrow of the rule of the king of
Portugal for a Brazilian emperor.
So saying that the pioneers such as Jefferson and Adams were the
founding fathers of American democracy is not an exaggeration. However, the revolution was launched by
the grassroots Boston Tea Party and accomplished by that Tea Party and the
farmers. The direct attraction to
revolution for the Tea party and farmers was not democracy and freedom. Instead, it was the British
exploitation of its colony in America and the pain the exploitation
caused. It was most people's hope
to liberate themselves from the pain that resulted in the success of the
revolution.
If
at that time the people in the American colony made compromises with the
British rulers instead of fighting to the end, would there be democracy in the
USA? Of course not. Now, if people make compromises with
the Communist Party, or Mubarak, or Gaddafi, instead of being determined to
overthrow them, will there be Chinese democracy or Arabic democracy? Of course not. This is the rule.
People
hope to resolve differences and disputes in peaceful, rational, and non-violent
ways. However, this must be done
after the rules to define "reasonable" are established. Peaceful, rational, and non-violent
resolution only works with people who are reasonable. In dealing with tyrannies who are unreasonable, you cannot
be rational with them. Only by
destroying them as one deals with an enemy, will a society that respects
reasoning be established. Even
after a democratic social system is established, we still have to use force via
the military and police against unreasonable bandits and thugs.
The
fantasy to eliminate force forever is just like the fantasy of communism, which
only brings the opposite results.
That would result in widespread violence making people suffer while the
dictators sit on people's heads.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110224ChinaWayOut35ChineseJasmine.mp3
(Written
on February 24, 2011. Recorded on
February 25, 2011. Broadcasted by
Radio Free Asia.)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
This
is a message from WeiJingSheng.org
The
Wei Jingsheng Foundation and the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition are
dedicated to the promotion of human rights and democratization in China. We appreciate your assistance and help
in any means. We pledge solidarity
to all who struggle for human rights and democratic governance on this
planet.
You
are welcome to use or distribute this release. However, please credit with this foundation and its website
at: www.weijingsheng.org
Although
we are unable to afford to pay royalty fees at this time, we are seeking your
contribution as well. You may send
your articles, comments and opinions to: HCP@weijingsheng.org. Please remember, only in text files,
not in attachments.
For
website issues and suggestions, you may contact our professional staff and web
master at: webmaster@Weijingsheng.org
To
find out more about us, please also visit our websites at: www.WeiJingSheng.org
and www.ChinaLaborUnion.org for news and information for Overseas Chinese
Democracy Coalition and human rights and democracy movement as whole,
especially our Chinese Labor Union Base.
You
may contact Ciping Huang at: HCP@Weijingsheng.org or
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation office at: 1-202-543-1538 Fax: 1-202-543-1539
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation's postal address is:
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA
You
are receiving this message because you had previous shown your interest in
learning more about Mr. Wei Jingsheng and the Chinese Democratic Movement. To be removed from the list, simply
reply this message and use "unsubscribe" as the Subject. Please allow us a few days to process
your request.
*****************************************************************
中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A615-W379
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A615-W379
Release
Date: March 1, 2011
发布日：2011年3月1日
Topic:
Topic: The Way Out for China (Part XXXV): China’s Jasmine Revolution -- Wei
Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之三十五：中国的茉莉花革命 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2011/report2011-03/WeiJS110301ChinaWayOut35ChineseJasmineA615-W379.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
《中国的出路》之三十五：中国的茉莉花革命
-- 魏京生
这两个月，阿拉伯国家的茉莉花革命闹得沸沸扬扬，而且已经大大超越了阿拉伯的范围，向四面八方扩展开来。中国的小青年们也有样学样，在二月二十日那一天搞了个中国的茉莉花革命。由于正好赶上中共神经紧张，强调高科技维稳的时机；也由于小青年们经验不足，低估了共产党的能力；所以没有造成多大的动静，反而使得很多坚定的骨干力量被警察抓走。看上去似乎是得不偿失。
其实不然。年轻人必然经验不足，这很正常。但是年轻人有冲劲，敢为理想牺牲。这就驳斥了那些看不起年轻人，说什么一代不如一代的九斤老太。这说明了江山代代有才人出，中国的希望就在这些敢想敢干的年轻人身上。经验是可以学习和积累的，跌倒了还可以爬起来。长江后浪推前浪，只要后继有人，就总会有成功的一天。
但是批评者的意见也是有价值的。看看阿拉伯国家的茉莉花革命，可以增长很多的经验。对照一下这次茉莉花革命成功与失败的经验，就可以看出我们中国人的差距。
我觉得首先一条就是时机不对。无论是突尼斯，还是埃及、利比亚的革命，都是在酝酿多年而且恰好赶上民怨鼎沸的时候。这才会一呼百应，造成形势。这次中国的茉莉花革命仅仅凭靠阿拉伯国家的革命形势，没有真正发动起中国社会的情绪，所以使得运动仅仅浮在表面，没有坚实的群众基础。当然也就不会一呼百应，势如破竹。
中国的社会虽然也像埃及一样，受到官僚资本的极度剥削。而且现在也正在遭受着通货膨胀和大量失业的痛苦煎熬。但是人们的痛苦并没有集中在针对共产党这个目标上，而是分散在许许多多细小的事务和人物上。这和1989年的情况有很大的不同。当时的目标虽然不高，仅仅不过是反腐败，但在当时却是全国人民都比较认同的目标，确实触及到了大多数人的痛处。所以那时虽然没有什么组织，却能够一呼百应造成形势。这和最近的阿拉伯革命十分相似。
但是这次的中国茉莉花革命却没有这种形势。被拆迁、被下岗、被剥削、被封口等等的痛苦，并没有被集中到不合理的政治体制上来，或者说还没有被集中到共产党的专制制度上来。反抗的情绪还没有高涨到群情激愤的情况下，邯郸学步地搞散步游行等等活动，必然是二月二十号那样的结果。在群情达到激愤的水平时，任何一个突发事件都会像突尼斯的茉莉花革命一样，造成崩溃的形势。
以上的分析说明，掌握运动的节奏和时机，是必须向所有成功和不成功的革命学习的经验。仅仅凭着热情，则不会得到革命的成功，不会造成改变社会体制的重大成果。每一次社会体制的重大变革，看上去好像是偶然的，其实都是多年宣传和鼓动的结果，更是选择时机和目标的结果。即使是多年的宣传和鼓动造成了群情激愤，时机和目标选择的错误也会导致革命的失败。二十多年来中国的革命在低谷里徘徊，主要原因就是目标和时机选择的错误，而不是缺乏社会动力。
以这次中国的茉莉花革命为例。它的目标是打倒共产党建立民主制度。这从原则上看当然正确无误。但是人们为了一个还没有出现的美好未来流血牺牲的动力，远远不如为了解除现实的痛苦更紧迫，更来情绪。目前，大多数国人能够理解到的现实痛苦并不是缺乏民主和缺乏人权，而是通货膨胀和极度剥削造成的贫富差距。柴米油盐是下里巴人，能够一呼百应。民主人权是阳春白雪，必然和者寡。
没有一次民主革命是靠着民主的口号发动起来的，而都是在造成革命的结果之后才选择了民主的新制度。每一个单独的人民都有他自己心目中最重要的目标。只有当这些目标汇合成潮流的时候，才会有革命的爆发。只有当革命的目标能够融合大多数人心目中的目标的时候，革命才会势如破竹。只有当阳春白雪包裹在下里巴人之中的时候，才能够一呼百应；才能从最低的目标开始，达到最高的结果。
新思想的宣传和推广是第一步。没有新的思想和目标，没有杰斐逊和亚当斯这些民主的先驱，就不会有美国的民主制度。革命就会像巴西那样，推翻了葡萄牙国王的统治，换上了一个巴西的皇帝。所以说杰斐逊和亚当斯这些先驱是美国民主的父母，一点都不夸张。但是美国革命却是由最基层的波士顿茶党发动的，并且是依靠茶党和农民完成的。吸引茶党和农民的目标，并不是民主自由，而是由于英国对美洲殖民地的剥削，给美洲殖民地人民造成的痛苦，进而使得大多数人从痛苦中解放自己的希望促成了这次革命的成功。
假如当年的美洲殖民地人民和英国统治者妥协，而不是斗争到底，还会有民主的美国产生吗？当然不会。现在，如果人们向共产党和穆巴拉克、卡扎菲妥协，而不是坚决地推翻他们，会有中国和阿拉伯的民主产生吗？当然也不会。这就是规律。
人们都希望用和平、理性、非暴力的方式解决各种分歧和纠纷，也就是都喜欢用讲理的方式。但这是在建立起讲理的规矩之后，和讲理的人之间解决问题的方式。和不讲理的暴君们，没有什么道理可讲。只能用对付敌人的方式消灭他们，才能重新建立起讲理的社会制度。即使在建立起民主的社会制度之后，对付那些不讲理的盗匪和暴徒，也还是需要使用暴力，需要军队和警察。
幻想永远消灭暴力，就像幻想理想的共产主义一样，带来的只能是相反的结果。那只会使暴力泛滥，人民遭殃，独裁者永远骑在人民的头上。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110224ChinaWayOut35ChineseJasmine.mp3
（撰写于2011年2月24日，录音于2月25日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
-----------------------------------------------------------------
魏京生基金会及中国民主运动海外联席会议以推动中国的人权与民主为己任。
我们欢迎任何形式的帮助与贡献。我们愿与世界上为人权与民主而奋斗的人们一起努力。
我们希望您能够帮助我们散发我们的资料。但请标明出处与我们的网址：www.weijingsheng.org
欢迎投稿（暂无稿费）或批评建议，请寄信箱： HCP@WEIJINGSHENG.ORG
魏京生基金会通讯地址：
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation, P. O. Box 15449, Washington, DC 20003, USA
电话： 1-202-543-1538 传真：1-202-543-1539
魏京生基金会网址：WWW.weijingsheng.org
中国民主运动海外联席会议及中国团结工会的网址为：www.ChinaLaborUnion.org
阁下之所以收到本信，是因为阁下以前曾表示有兴趣了解魏京生先生和中国民主运动。
倘若阁下希望不再收到类似信息，请回复本信并用 unsubscribe 作为主题(Subject)。