Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A645-W403
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A645-W403
Release
Date: Aug. 7, 2011
发布日：2011年8月7日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XLIII): The Economy in the New Type of Colony --
Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之四十三：新殖民地经济 -- 魏京生
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The
Way Out for China (Part XLIII): The Economy in the New Type of Colony
--
Wei Jingsheng
The
so-called China model is designed to treat the developed countries as a new
type of colony and use them for commodity dumping. This statement will make many "patriotic" angry
Chinese youths feel triumphant: now here comes the revenge, we are a sovereign
state able to dominate them as colonies.
Ever since the anti-imperialist cultural and political movement of May
4, 1919, the propaganda by the Chinese intellectuals that was distorting
history and inciting hate is still poisoning the minds of many. However, the dreams of a fool's
paradise by these angry youths are not as great as they seem.
Although
the developed countries have become dumping grounds like colonies, the newly
emerging industrialized countries have not become sovereign states ruling over
these developed countries. The
reason is because people's incomes in China and other newly emerging
industrialized countries have not significantly improved, and their domestic
markets, infrastructure and technological levels are not increasing
simultaneously. Instead, the
markets are flooded with low-quality goods. The quality levels have been declining globally. This is the era that one can make a lot
of money without advancing science and technology, or improving quality. What one needs to do instead is to
maintain a low human rights standard among the laborers, rather than a
high-tech advantage. The global
politics under the control of global capital are all at work to maintain this
"advantage" of a low labor rights standard. The people in the newly emerging industrialized countries
have much less income than those of the "colonized" markets, along
with even lower human rights and even lower consumption. They are even less than these people in
the colonies. They are the slaves
for the colonies.
So
who is the exploiter, which suzerain state has the sovereign rights over the
colony markets? The answer is:
transnational capital. Nowadays,
the capitalists do not oppose the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP is capitalist itself. Their slogan is "let all the
capitalists in the world unite, so that some people enjoy a prosperous
life." The premise allowing
some of these people to get prosperous is the global free trade under unfair
conditions. Its foundation is the
deprived human rights of the people of these emerging industrial
countries. Its consequence is the
economic recession in the developed countries, as they move closer to the less
developed countries. Its method is
not rent-seeking of the capital, but a controlled politics that is well planned
and well organized by capital to serve for the lower human rights standards and
unfair trade. Global free trade
has been transformed into a tool of transnational capital for excess
profits. It has lost the
functionality it once had for promoting the global economy after World War II.
The
most important variable in this transformation is the so-called China
Model. Despite the name of global
free trade, it has already deteriorated into a global unfair trade. For the developed countries, unfairness
is reflected in the low human rights standards of their competitors. The authoritarian political system
guarantees unfair low labor cost.
Coupled with unfair measures of market access, high-quality merchandise
is only squeezed out of the market by the inferior goods. To the newly emerging countries,
unfairness is reflected in the income of the working-class, which is not
synchronized with the growth of the economic development. An undeveloped domestic market inhibits
economic development, inhibits technological progress, and contributes to
political corruption. This
phenomenon can be seen in almost all the newly emerging industrialized
countries.
With
both developed and emerging countries being harmed, will this global trade
economy be sustainable in the long term?
The answer is no. That is
because the scale of global consumption growth is less than the actual growth
in production. Production rate
will be difficult to maintain. The
financial surplus-induced recession is only a beginning, and a warning. If there is only a financial surplus,
then inflation will automatically balance it. But the reason for the financial surplus is because of the
excessive profits due to the global trading system. Therefore, the market cannot automatically balance it. The result of the self-balancing
becomes a starting point: on balance the next round will continue downward,
which means continued economic decline.
In
another words, GDP growth has not brought growth in the global market, while
the excess profits will still bring excess growth in financial markets. The rate of inflation will continue to
accelerate, but will always fall behind the financial growth rate. On the one hand is the surplus of goods,
and on the other hand is the excess money. Both cannot flow freely, but are hindered by the highly
profitable market rules and extreme disparities of income. This hindrance is the reason which lead
to economic crisis and foreign expansion in the past few centuries. In this crisis, the actual situation in
China is worse than in developed countries. The semi-closed market in China prevents the automatic
adjustment of the market. This
closure continues to improve conditions for excess profits, while it further
increases the gap between rich and poor, and inhibits market development. Thus, the degree of recession in China
is much larger than that of developed countries.
As
the current global trading system cannot automatically adjust and cannot
automatically balance itself, every country has to take their own measures to
restore a balance of the markets in their own countries. The first step is that the actual
colonial states have to enforce trade protectionism, to resist the overall
dumping. If, as happened in the
nineteenth century China, it cannot stop the dumping of cheap goods, then the
result will be a national economic recession with declining industries and
growing unemployment. Eventually,
politics will be controlled by these external forces for economic reasons. This has gradually become the reality
in the USA. Therefore, in order to
save themselves, the Western countries must take protective measures to reverse
this trend. Western democracy is
struggling with the capital now.
To force the Chinese currency RMB's appreciation is just the beginning
of self-help, but not all that is required.
In
this process, inevitably China will be subject to strikes on its export. Surely the so-called export-oriented
economic model will not be able to be maintained. Here, there are two possible options.
The
first option is to plan ahead.
China should proceed immediately to expand the domestic market while
reforming the currency and commodity markets. In this way it will quickly balance the domestic market via
the international market, and get over the difficulties of economic recession
by cooperating with the developed countries. However, this option is at the cost of losing the excess
profits of the international and domestic capital, and reducing support for
authoritarian politics. The
difficulty now is that China's existing one-party dictatorship with the support
of the big capital could hardly to make this compromise, unlike the fight that
is going on between the capital and national interests in the Western
countries. China's national
interests have long been subordinated to the interests of capital, and there is
no democratic process that can correct it.
So
the CCP is left only with the second choice: to adhere to the semi-closed
market and closed monetary policy, taking one step at a time. Besides occasionally making small
compromises when it is forced to, the ultimate goal will be to keep the excess
profits of the China Model in order to win the continued support of global
capital. But the difficulty is
that this choice will force the West to speed up its process of protectionism
and simultaneously speed up the outbreak of social conflict in China, thus
speeding up the collapse of communist regime. The Jasmine Revolution in the Arab world was promoted in
this way. However, the greatest
difficulty is that the CCP is controlled by the big capitalists, for whom it is
impossible to give up excess profits and impossible to truly initiate the
reform process. Thus, capital and
the CCP can only take China into the abyss, and cause a new round of global
economic turmoil.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110722ChinaWayOut43newcolony.mp3
(Written
and recorded on July 22, 2011.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A645-W403
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A645-W403
Release
Date: Aug. 7, 2011
发布日：2011年8月7日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XLIII): The Economy in the New Type of Colony --
Wei Jingsheng
标题： 《中国的出路》之四十三：新殖民地经济 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2011/report2011-08/WeiJS110807ChinaWayOut43newcolonyA645-W403.htm
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《中国的出路》之四十三：新殖民地经济
-- 魏京生
所谓的中国模式就是把发达国家当作新型的殖民地和商品倾销市场。很多中国的爱国主义愤青听了后便洋洋得意：这下子可报了仇了，俺们也当一回宗主国，让他们尝尝殖民地的味道。五四以来的中国文人歪曲历史、煽动仇恨的宣传，至今流毒不浅。但愤青们的黄粱美梦做得太长了一些。现实并不像他们梦中的那么美好。
发达国家变成了殖民地倾销市场，新兴工业国却并没有成为宗主国。这是因为中国和其它新兴工业国人民的收入并没有明显的提高；国内市场并没有同步发展；基础建设和科技水平也没有同步增长。倒是劣质商品充斥市场，质量水平全球下降。这是一个不需要科学技术，也不需要提高质量就可以赚大钱的时代。需要控制的是低人权优势，而不是高科技优势。全球资本控制下的全球政治都在为维持低人权优势而工作。新兴工业国的人民还不如殖民地人民的收入水平，他们享受到的是更低的人权和更低的消费。他们也是殖民地人民，而且是低一两个档次的殖民地的奴隶。
那么谁是剥削者，谁是宗主国呢？答案是：跨国资本。现在的资本家们并不反对共产党，现在共产党自己就是资本家。他们的口号是“全世界资产阶级联合起来，让一部分人享受富裕的生活”。这一部分人富裕起来的前提，是不公平条件下的全球自由贸易。它的基础，是工业国人民被剥夺的人权。它的后果，是发达国家经济的衰退，向不发达国家靠拢。它的手段，已经不是什么资本寻租，而是资本有计划、有组织的控制政治，为低人权和不公平贸易服务。全球自由贸易已经被改造成为跨国资本获取超额利润的工具。它失去了二战后曾经发挥的促进全球经济的作用。
而其中最重要的变数，就是所谓的中国模式。名义上的全球自由贸易，已经变质为全球不公平贸易。对发达国家来说，不公平体现在他们的竞争对手的低人权优势。专制的政治体制保障了他们可以不公平地压低劳动成本。加上市场准入的不公平措施，优质商品只能被劣质商品排挤出市场。对新兴国家来说，不公平体现在工薪阶层的收入没有随着经济发展同步增长。其国内市场的不发达抑制了经济发展；抑制了科技进步；助长了政治腐败。这种现象可以在几乎所有新兴工业国家里看到。
在发达国家和新兴国家同时受损害的情况下，这种全球贸易的经济模式可以长期持续下去吗？答案是否定的。因为全球实际消费增长的规模小于生产增长的规模。生产就难以维持。金融过剩导致的衰退，只不过是一个开始，一个警告。如果仅仅是金融过剩，那么通货膨胀会自动平衡它。但是金融过剩的原因，是因为全球贸易体制造成的超额利润带来的。所以市场就不可能自动平衡它。自动平衡的结果成为起点：下一轮的平衡将继续向下发展，也就是说会继续衰退。
换一个说法就是：GDP的增长没有带来全球市场的同步增长，而超额的利润仍然会带来金融市场的超额增长。通货膨胀的速度在不断加快，但永远落在金融增长的速度之后。一方面是过剩的商品；另一方面是过剩的货币。二者不能够自由地流通，而被高利润的市场规则和过分不平均的收入差距所阻碍。这就是过去几个世纪以来，导致经济危机和对外扩张的原因。在这场危机中，中国的实际状况比发达国家还要糟糕。因为中国半封闭的市场阻止了市场的自动调节。这给超额利润制造了更好的条件，进一步加大了贫富差距，抑制了市场发展。从而使得其衰退的程度远大于发达国家。
在现有的全球贸易体制不能够自动调节，无法自动达到平衡的情况下，各国不得不自行采取措施来恢复各国自身市场的平衡。首先是实际中的殖民地国家不得不采取贸易保护主义，来抵制整体性的倾销。如果像十九世纪的中国那样，挡不住廉价倾销的话，其结果就是本国经济萧条、工业萎缩、失业增长，最终政治因为经济的原因被外来势力所控制。这在美国已经逐渐成为现实了。所以西方国家为了自救，必须采取保护性措施来扭转这个趋势。西方的民主正在和资本较量。迫使人民币升值只是自救的开始，而不是全部措施。
中国在这个过程中，必然会遭受出口上的打击，所谓外向型经济模式必然无法维持。这里，有两个可能的选择。
第一个选择是未雨绸缪：立即着手扩大国内市场，同时改革不开放的货币和商品市场。以此利用国际市场快速地平衡国内市场，和发达国家合作渡过经济衰退的难关。但代价是国际和国内资本失去了超额的利润，降低对专制政治的支持度。现在的困难是中国现有的一党专政在大资本的支持下很难让步，而不像西方国家正处在资本和国家利益的较量中。中国的国家利益早已服从于资本的利益，也没有民主程序可以矫正它。
所以就只能是第二种选择：坚持半封闭的市场和不开放的金融政策，步步为营。除了不得已时做一些微小的妥协，最终目的是保持超额利润的中国模式，以此获得全球资本的继续支持。但困难的是，这会迫使西方加快保护市场的进程，同时加快中国国内社会矛盾的爆发，加快中共政权的崩溃。阿拉伯世界的茉莉花革命正是这样促成的。而更困难的是大资本控制的中国共产党，不可能放弃超额的利润，不可能真正启动改革的进程。就只能带着这个国家走向深渊，并造成新一轮的全球经济混乱。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110722ChinaWayOut43newcolony.mp3
（撰写并录音于2011年7月22日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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