Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A647-W405
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A647-W405
Release
Date: Aug. 14, 2011
发布日：2011年8月14日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XLIV): The Damage to the Economy by the So-called
China Model -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之四十四：所谓的中国模式对经济的危害 -- 魏京生
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The
Way Out for China (Part XLIV): The Damage to the Economy by the So-called China
Model
--
Wei Jingsheng
The
academic research data by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences shows 99% of
China's enterprises are small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The SMEs contribute more than 60% of
revenue to the GDP, more than 50% of tax income, and provide more than 75% of
urban jobs. The news that 40% of
SMEs in China closed down in the past year draws people to question the Chinese
government's official data.
Due
to over-production in the auto industry, at the end of this year there will be
an excess of 10 million vehicles in China. This is more than the auto production in Japan in the year
2009. Another big problem is the
surplus of real estate investment in China, which has reached a 30%
bubble. There are 64.5 million
vacant apartment units, enough to house 200 million people.
In
China, an estimated 1,300 people control more than $1 trillion of assets. According to a survey by Western
financial institutions, 1.5 percent of Chinese own 45% of bank deposits and 67%
of assets. The Gini coefficient
(which measures income inequality) has reached 0.57. In the 1980s, it was only 0.25; in the 1990s, it was
0.39. Now, this coefficient is
much higher than the 0.43 of the United States, and 0.37 of India. In China, the people who have average
living expenses on the absolute poverty scale of less than $2/day have reached
more than half of the entire population of more than 1.3 billion.
China's
state-owned enterprises enjoy more than 75% of the investment by the country,
with more than 2/3 of the country's fixed assets. During the 2008-2010 global financial and economic crisis,
state-owned enterprises obtained more than 90% of the state funds to stimulate
the economy. Nevertheless, 80% of
China's corporate profits come from 120,000 private SMEs, and less than 12 of
large state-owned enterprises.
Only under the conditions of monopoly are several state-owned giants
such as Sinopec able to gain huge profits.
After
reading this set of data, we can imagine what went wrong to create China's
social and economic ills. The
"China Model" is really an economic model of the socialist "big
pot" that, like a vampire, relies on sucking the blood from the private
economy, and getting subsidies from the so-called export-oriented economy, a
way in gain benefit from damaging others.
The semi-private market economies have to use the profit they make from
the international market with their low labor costs to fatten this big pot of
the state-run economy and enterprises of a few bureaucratic capitalists. Will the accumulated capital be used to
expand and improve the technical elements of the Chinese economy? Most likely not.
Very
few of the SMEs which make excess profits from their foreign trade undergo
thorough technical updates, because the advantage of a low human rights
standard seem to be so profitable.
Since even the products of very poor quality can be sold, why spend
money to update the technology?
Coupled with the exploitation from official corruption, the actual
profit these SMEs make is really not as much as in theory. Many of them are actually quietly
transferring part of the profits abroad in order to facilitate their families
survival under the social change.
Who will own these companies after a technology upgrade? So the current bosses would rather not
do this upgrade for other people's benefit.
Therefore,
this so-called China Model, dominated by an export-oriented economy, has not
done much after it obtained excess profits by relying on dumping in the Western
markets. It does not form an
effective accumulation in the Chinese society; it does not produce economic
modernization in China; it also barely improves the technical content of
China's economic entity. The
results are the strange phenomenon we all see now. As soon as there is any sign of trouble with the
international market, nearly half of small and medium enterprises close
down. Yet there is still the
statistical calculation of the GDP of nearly double-digit growth. This growth can be said to be a result
of both inflation and fraud within the statistical system. Real economic growth should have been
negative already.
In
addition to the low-tech factor within the SMEs, the Chinese Government's
financial policy is the second most important reason for the massive business
close down in China. During the
global economic downturn, the government has increased investment to save the
economy. This itself is
understandable. However, this
money was not really used to save the small and medium enterprises, but mostly
flowed into the state-owned and bureaucratic enterprises due to political
corruption. The big business
enterprises, which were not lacking of funds to begin with, injected the state
investment funds into the speculative market resulting in a huge bubble in the
real estate market. So on the one
hand is the closing of a large number of small and medium enterprises which
were creating profits, while on the other hand is the expansion of the deformed
real estate market in China, devouring the funds originally meant for
protecting small and medium enterprises.
The
most severe problem is the more than three trillion U.S. dollars foreign
exchange reserves China has. These
reserves should be used in exchange for issuing additional currency during the
economic overheating time. During
the recession, the government should apply a policy of collecting domestic
currency in an effort to restrain inflation. The specific approach is very simple: allow converting
foreign currency freely on the one hand and on the other hand raise the
currency exchange rate. In this
way the circulation of the domestic currency on the market will be reduced, and
the inflation will naturally decline.
But why does the Chinese government continue its stand, and not take
such a simple measure? It is due
to the difference between bureaucrat-capitalism and democratic politics.
From
the viewpoint of bureaucratic politics, eliminating inflation is not beneficial
for them to continue to earn excess profits. To collect the domestic currency of Chinese Yuan (RMB) from
the people then raise the exchange rate of the RMB and free exchange, and
eventually send the double-earned capital abroad would best suit the interests
of bureaucratic capitalism. In
addition, an appreciation of the RMB would make the current expensive housing
market in China even more unable to find buyers. The collapse of the housing market in China would be a
direct harm to the interests of bureaucratic capitalism. It would be absolutely unacceptable to
the bureaucratic capitalist clique in China that is controlling Chinese politics
now. Of course, the Chinese
Communist regime that is relying on the support of the capitalists would not
accept it either. Politics has
become the politics for the capitalists, and already very far from the
interests of the average Chinese.
This is the root reason that the economic and social problems in China
are not solved.
The
view from the national interest and the Chinese people is completely
reversed. Opening the free
exchange of currency, and improving the RMB exchange rate, coupled with opening
of a fair import market, will control inflation within six months. Not only will Chinese people's lives be
better off, the upgrading of technology in SMEs will create better
conditions. Imported technology
and equipment will be relatively cheap.
Combined with a relative expansion of the domestic consumer market,
these policies will help the survival of small and medium enterprises. This will be good for the average
people without any harm.
But,
this would make the businessmen with black hearts making money from high prices
lose profit. More importantly, the
real estate tycoons in China who made a lot of money along with the
bureaucratic businessmen in China by forced demolition and relocation of the
Chinese citizens, may have to go bankrupt. As a result, China will lose half of its billionaires. Meanwhile the lowered house prices from
the bankruptcy auctions will
reduce the number of people who are facing housing hardship to half. In this round of interests
confrontation, we can clearly see which kind of government the Chinese
Communist Party regime is. It is a
political power of the bureaucratic capitalist standing against the people.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110728ChinaWayOut44ChinaModelDamages.mp3
(Written
and recorded on July 28, 2011.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A647-W405
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A647-W405
Release
Date: Aug. 14, 2011
发布日：2011年8月14日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XLIV): The Damage to the Economy by the So-called
China Model -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之四十四：所谓的中国模式对经济的危害 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2011/report2011-08/WeiJS110814ChinaWayOut44ChinaModelDamagesA647-W405.htm
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《中国的出路》之四十四：所谓的中国模式对经济的危害
-- 魏京生
中国社科院学者的研究数据显示：中国99%的企业是中小企业，中小企业对GDP的贡献超过60%，对税收的贡献超过50%，提供了75%以上的城镇就业岗位。一年来中国40%中小企业倒闭的消息引起人们对中共官方数据的质疑。
由于汽车工业产能过剩，到今年年底，中国生产的汽车将过剩1,000万辆。这比日本在2009年全年的汽车产量还多。另一个大问题是房地产投资过剩，现在的泡沫已经达到了30%，有6,450万个公寓单位空置，足够2亿人居住。
在中国，估计有1,300人控制了超过10,000亿美元的资产。根据西方金融机构的调查，1.5%的中国人拥有全国45%的银行存款和67%的资产。基尼系数（也就是收入不平等系数）达到了0.57。在80年代这个系数还只有0.25，90年代是0.39。这个系数远高于美国的0.43、印度的0.37。日平均生活开支不足2美元的绝对贫困人口，已经达到全部人口的一半以上。
中国的国营企业享有超过75%的国家投资，拥有全国超过2/3的固定资产。在2008年至2010年的全球金融危机、经济危机期间，国企获得了国家刺激经济资金的九成。而中国80%的企业盈利却来自120,000家私营中小企业，以及大型国企中的不到12家。中石化等几家国企巨头，在垄断的条件下才获得了巨额利润。
看了以上这组数据之后，大家可以想象出中国的社会和经济弊病到底出在哪里。这就是社会主义大锅饭的经济模式依靠从私人经济中吸血，从损人利己的所谓外向型经济中获得补贴。半市场的民营经济体，在以低廉的劳动力价格从国际市场赚回来的利润，养肥了大锅饭的国营经济和少数官僚资本的企业。这些积累的资本被用来扩大和提高中国经济的技术含量了吗？大多数可能没有。
在对外贸易中赚取了超额利润的中小企业，很少进行技术更新，因为低人权优势看起来如此有利可图。即使质量非常低劣的商品也能够卖得出去，何必花钱更新技术呢？再加上腐败的官方盘剥，他们到手的实际利润并不是理论上的那么多。他们中的很多人实际上正在悄悄地把到手利润的一部分转移到国外，以利于家族在社会变动的形势下得以生存。技术升级后的企业是谁的呢？没必要为他人做嫁衣裳。
所以，这个所谓的外向型经济为主导的中国模式，在依靠倾销西方市场而获得了超额的利润后，并没有形成中国社会的有效的积累；并没有使中国的经济现代化；也很少提高中国经济实体的技术含量。结果就出现了现在大家看到的怪现象。国际市场一旦风吹草动，中小企业近半数倒闭，GDP竟还被统计出接近两位数的增长。这个增长可以说是通货膨胀加上统计系统造假的结果。实际的经济应该已经是负增长了。
除了中小企业技术含量低的因素外，政府的金融政策也是造成大量企业倒闭的第二重要的原因。在全球经济衰退的形势下，政府加大了投资来挽救经济。这本来无可厚非。但是这些钱没有真正解救中小企业，而是因为政治腐败的原因，绝大部分流入了国营和官僚企业中。这些本来不缺乏资金的大企业，把这些多余的资金投入到了投机性的市场，造成了房地产市场的巨大泡沫。所以一方面是创造利润的中小企业大量倒闭；另一方面却是房地产市场畸形的扩展，吞噬掉了本来用于保护中小企业的资金。
更严重的是中国三万多亿美元的外汇储备。这些外汇储备是在经济过热的时候，依靠增发货币而换取的资本储备。在经济衰退的形势下，应该采取回收本币的政策抑制通货膨胀。具体做法非常简单，就是一方面自由兑换；一方面提高本币兑换率。市场上流通的本币货币量减少了，通货膨胀自然就会下降。但为什么硬顶着，不采取这样简单的措施呢？这就是官僚资本主义和民主政治的不同了。
从官僚政治的观点来看，消除了通货膨胀不利于他们趁机赚取超额利润。现在从老百姓手里把人民币赚到手，再提高人民币的汇率和自由兑换，然后把双重赚取的资本汇往国外，这最符合官僚资本的利益。另外。人民币升值会使得中国现有的天价房市更加无人问津，房市的崩溃直接损害了官僚资本的利益。这是现在控制中国政治的官僚资本集团绝对不能接受的。依靠资本支持的中共政权当然也不会接受。政治成为了资产阶级的政治，早已经远离人民大众的利益。这才是中国经济社会问题得不到解决的根本原因。
从中国人民和国家的利益来看，事情就完全反过来了。开放货币自由兑换和提高人民币汇率，再加上开放公平的进口市场，通货膨胀会在半年之内得到控制。不但老百姓的日子会好过一些，而且中小企业的技术升级换代也会享有比较好的条件。进口的技术和设备相对廉价，国内消费市场的相对扩大，都会有利于中小企业的生存。这对老百姓来说是有利无害的局面。
但是对依靠高价赚钱的黑心商人就无利可图了。更重要的是，有一批靠强制拆迁和官商勾结赚钱的房地产大亨们，可能就不得不破产。结果是，中国的亿万富翁可能会减少一半；而破产拍卖后的低房价，至少会让住房困难户减少一半。在这种利益对抗的形势中，大家可以清楚地看到共产党是一个什么样的政权。它是一个站在官僚资产阶级立场上的反人民的政权。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110728ChinaWayOut44ChinaModelDamages.mp3
（撰写并录音于2011年7月28日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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