Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A648-W406
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A648-W406
Release
Date: Aug. 20, 2011
发布日：2011年8月20日
Topic:
The Awkwardness of the Current Sino-US Relations -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：中美关系的尴尬 -- 魏京生
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The
Awkwardness of the Current Sino-US Relations
--
Wei Jingsheng
Recently,
a major event caused a lot of attention from both the Chinese people and the
Western media. During his
visit to China, the person who received U.S. Vice President Biden was neither
General Secretary of the Communist Party and President Hu Jintao, nor Premier
Wen Jiabao, but Vice President Xi who likely will be the successor and is
commonly called as the Prince by the Chinese people.
Xi
Jinping and the visiting Vice President Biden, both of whom have no real power,
planned five consecutive talks.
Two persons without real power having such solemn talks are already a
little strange. Yet, their talks
received such serious attention by the international media, even more than for
others. What is the reason?
The
first is the straightforwardness of the Americans. By going around the President and Premier who have real
power with only a superficial desire of seeing each other's face, they went
straight to the future president.
This is almost a little bit unreasonable. The straightforwardness of the Americans is due to the fact
that they have lost their patience with Hu and Wen after so many years. Their meetings in the past were always
going around the substance without real results. Whether in economic issues, or on the topic of human
rights and international politics, there were no results. So the Americans simply put hope in the
future, at least it could not be worse.
On
the Chinese government side, there also were calculations. Year after year, with the pressure from
the US, the re-evaluation of the Chinese currency rate cannot be delayed
without a reason anymore. Hu and
Wen's not talking with the Americans but instead letting a deputy without real
power give the reception is a small trick by everyone. After all, letting Prince Xi with his
aggressive habits receive some pressure would be good, letting him learn the
difficulty of managing everything rather than just giving some cheap and gloating
talk to buy peoples' hearts easily, like what he did in Mexico a while ago.
To
be fair, it is not easy for both Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. On one side, they have to maintain the
interests of the capitalists in both the USA and China, to protect the
excessive profits made from the low human rights standard; on the other side;
on the other side, they are facing pressure from both the USA and Chinese
societies with the accusation of undermining the global economy, which
certainly will earn them notoriety which will go down in history. Today, when they are obviously left out
by the Americans, they even have to thank the deputy who only knows nonchalant
teasing for a shield. Most of
people do not have this kind of virtue of frustration tolerance.
Although
Hu and Wen felt awkward, Vice president Xi Jinping was happy to accept this
US-China meeting. Through the hype
of the international media, there was nothing to lose but to improve his own
reputation. Meanwhile, the
successor position has been set, and there is no more worry of someone coming
to grab the power. This is exactly
the right opportunity to end his period of hiding capacity and biding his
time. Thus, during Xi's talk with
US Vice President Biden, he showed his own policy: Americans should take care
of their own business, and not make the Chinese take responsibility for the
United States. That is the
interpretation to take from the official words: Americans have the best
capacity to endure and the ability to repair themselves. We believe that Americans should take
care of themselves and not trouble us.
This
tone is even tougher than that of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. The direct statement is that the
existing Sino-US relations system will be maintained without change, and the
interests of the big capitalists of both countries will be solidly maintained
without change. When these two
issues are maintained without change, there is a guarantee of a stable
foundation enduring before Prince Xi comes to power. With the support of the interest groups of both China and
the U.S., he will sit tight on the fishing spot of succession. From another perspective, the view to
entrust hope of reforming China's current system in the leadership of the new
term probably does not have much basis.
It
is very normal for Xi Jinping to make this gesture. The Communist Party of China is already a regime for major
capitalist interest groups.
Without guaranteeing the interests of the big capitalists, it is impossible
to become a successor. The future
of the country and interests of the people will always be on the lower
level. This order is determined by
the nature of the Communist Party.
However,
the nature of the United States is different. It is a democratic country, which has to take care of the
interests of the state and the people.
While contributions from the big capitalists have a strong influence on
the politicians, the interests of the country and the people cannot be
ignored. Next year is a big
election year; whether the Democrats are to stay in power will be determined by
a change in the pattern of Sino-US trade in this one year, and a quick recovery
of the U.S. economy.
Time
is really running out. In the
past, the US administration has put hopes on Hu and Wen, but never got
results. So this time, the U.S.
administration had to be a little unreasonable -- to use Prince Xi to stimulate
the current power holders in China.
From Prince Xi's open gesture, the Americans have to be
disappointed. What the Obama
administration hoped for was that the Chinese government comes forward to offend
the international capitalists, while the Americans get all the benefits. But this calculation was not wise. Prince Xi is right; do not bother us
with your problems. We have our
own problems. If you democratic
countries do not even dare to offend the interests of international capital for
the interest of your country and your people, why should this one-party
dictatorial state help your politicians take the benefit with a risk in the way
of picking up the roasted chestnuts from the fire? Moreover, in the existing benefit structure, we are the
beneficial party, so there is no need for us to change.
The
succession system of a one-party dictatorship is relatively stable, because its
self-reproduction has nothing to link with the interests of the people and the
country. A democratic state is
different. If one does not care
about the interests of people, then one has to step down. So this time the real awkward part is
that of the Obama administration and the U.S. Democratic Party. No matter how friendly the gesture they
pose to the Chinese Communists, it is impossible for that Party to give up its
own interests to take care of them.
Just as Prince Xi said: you are better to think of ways to take care of
yourself.
Or
we can observe from another perspective.
We may view this China visit by Vice President Biden as President
Obama's last hope for the international capitalists. They still hoped to reach mutual compromises with China
which are beneficial to both; for China to make more concessions on the
currency rate, to tweak the trade deficit between China and the U.S. Then Obama could weather the storm,
which will let the international capital continue to earn excess profits for a
few more years.
But
this approach is too naive because it would undermine the basis of rule for the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP). If
the CCP lost the support of big capitalists, Prince Xi's status could change in
this long year. Even if Hu and Wen
might accept this compromise, for Prince Xi it would be absolutely
unacceptable. Although burning the
bridge behind you is not moral, it is still possible. However, if one dismantles this bridge before crossing the
river, then it is foolish for sure.
The reason for Hu and Wen to relinquish haughty airs and let Prince Xi
pick up this hot potato in style, is because that they have calculated that
Prince Xi will not dismantle the bridge before he crossed over the river. It also illustrates their shared
position of solidarity in not making compromises with the USA.
So
it seems that the awkwardness of Sino-US relations is primarily the awkwardness
of President Obama. He wants to
eat fish without getting the fishy smell: on the one hand he wants to be the
U.S. president, but on the other hand he also wants to be the president of
international capitalists. This is
almost impossible in the current circumstances when both sides have a conflict
of interest. Vice President
Biden's China visit should break all their fantasies. Americans really should learn to take care of their own
affairs, and especially should not pin their hopes on the hostile Communist
Party in China.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110819BidenJvisitsChina.mp3
(Written
and recorded on August 19, 2011.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A648-W406
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A648-W406
Release
Date: Aug. 20, 2011
发布日：2011年8月20日
Topic:
The Awkwardness of the Current Sino-US Relations -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：中美关系的尴尬 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2011/report2011-08/WeiJS110820BidenJvisitsChinaA648-W406.htm
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中美关系的尴尬
-- 魏京生
最近的一件大事，引起了很大的关注。不但中国人，就连西方的媒体也广泛关注。这就是美国副总统访问中国，主持接待他的不是总书记兼主席胡锦涛,也不是总理温家宝,而是俗称太子的接班人副主席。
习近平与来访的无实权的美国副总统，紧锣密鼓地连续会谈五次。两个无实权的副总统如此郑重其事的会谈，已经有点怪怪的了。会谈受到国际媒体如此严重的关注，倒是更是引起人们的注意。是什么原因呢？
首先是美国人的直率。绕过掌握实权的主席和总理，只是蜻蜓点水地应付应付见个面，就直奔主题去见想见的将来的主席，这略微有点儿无理了。美国人的直率是因为多年来和胡锦涛、温家宝打交道已经失去了耐心。绕来绕去的会谈没有实际的结果。无论是在经济话题上，还是在人权和国际政治的话题上，都没什么结果。干脆就把希望放在将来，至少不会更糟糕。
中国方面也有自己的小算盘。连年来被美国逼得很紧的人民币升值问题，实在没有理由再拖下去了。胡温的避而不见和让没有实权的副手接待美国人，是连小家小户都会玩的手法。让这个咄咄逼人的习太子受一受夹板气也挺好，省得不当家不知柴米贵，跑到墨西哥去说风凉话刁买人心。
说起来，胡锦涛和温家宝也确实不容易。一面要维持中美两国资本家的利益，保护低人权优势下的超额利润；另一面又要面对来自中美两国社会上的压力，承担破坏全球经济的罪名，而且肯定是遗臭万年的恶名。如今被人家明显的冷落，还得感谢那个只会说风凉话的副手给自己做了挡箭牌。这份窝囊气，一般人还没这个涵养消受。
胡锦涛和温家宝虽然尴尬，习近平可是乐得消受。借着国际媒体的炒作，提高自身的声望没什么不好。而且接班人的地位已定，不怕再有人抢班夺权。这个时候正好是结束韬光养晦的正当时机。于是，他在会谈中就亮出了自己的政策：美国人的事情美国人自己管，不要让我们中国人替美国承担责任。用官话说就是：美国人有最好的承受能力和自我修复的能力，相信美国人会管好自己的事而不来麻烦我们。
这个口气比胡温更加强硬。直接说就是保持现有的中美关系体系不会变，坚定不移地维持中美两国大资本的利益不会变。有了这两个不会变，就保证了习太子上台之前的基础稳定。有了中美两国利益集团的支持，就稳坐了接班的钓鱼台。从另一面来看，那些把中国改革现有体制的希望寄托在新一任领导班子的论调，可能是没有什么根据了。
习近平做出这个姿态是很正常的。中国的共产党早就是大资本利益集团的政权了。不保证大资本的利益就不可能接这个班。国家的前途和老百姓的利益永远被放在较低的层次。这个顺序是共产党的性质决定的。
但美国的性质却不同。这是个民主国家，不得不照顾到国家和人民的利益。虽然大资本的捐款对政治家们具有强大的影响力，但是国家和人民的利益也不能不考虑。明年就是大选年，民主党能不能留在台上，就看它在这一年里能不能改变中美贸易的格局，并且迅速地使美国经济复苏。
时间确实不多了。过去寄希望于胡温，但一直没有结果。所以美国当局不得不稍微无理一下，借着习太子来刺激刺激现任的掌权者。从习太子毫不隐讳的姿态来看，美国人不得不失望了。奥巴马当局是希望中国政府出面得罪国际大资本，而自己坐收渔人之利。这个算盘打得实在不够高明。习太子说得对；你们的事情不要来麻烦我们。我们中国有自己的麻烦。你们民主国家都不敢为了国家和人民的利益得罪国际大资本；为什么我们这个一党专政的国家,就应该为你们这帮政客火中取栗呢？何况在现有的格局中我们是得利的一方，就更没有必要去改变它了。
一党专政的接班体制相对稳定，因为它是自我繁殖，本来就和国家人民的利益不挂钩。民主国家就不同了，太过份地不把老百姓的利益放在眼里，那就直接下台没商量。所以这回真正尴尬的是奥巴马和美国的民主党。无论怎样向中共摆出友好的姿态，也不可能换得人家放弃自己的利益来照顾你。也正像习太子说的那样：你们还是想办法自己照顾自己吧。
或者我们可以换一种角度观察。这次拜登副总统访问中国，可以看作奥巴马总统对国际大资本的最后希望。他们还希望能和中国达成有利于双方的妥协。这就是在汇率方面中国再做出更大的让步，稍微调整一下中美之间的贸易逆差，好让奥巴马渡过难关，让国际大资本再继续赚取超额利润几年。
但是这个想法却是过于天真了。因为这会动摇中国共产党的统治基础。失去了大资本的支持，习太子的地位会在漫长的一年中随时变化。如果说胡温还有可能接受这个妥协，习太子也断然不可能接受。过河拆桥虽然不道德，还还是有可能的。没过河就拆桥，那不是傻瓜吗？胡温之所以放下架子，让习太子风风光光地接这个烫手的山芋，就是算好了他不会没过河就拆桥。这也表明了他们对美国不让步的团结一致的立场。
看来中美关系的尴尬，主要是奥巴马总统的尴尬。又想吃鱼又不想沾腥；既要当美国的总统，又要当国际大资本的总统。这在现在双方利益冲突的形势下已不太可能了。拜登副总统的访问应该打破了他们的一切幻想。美国人确实应该学会自己照顾自己的事情了，特别是不应该把希望寄托在敌对的共产党身上。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110819BidenJvisitsChina.mp3
（撰写并录音于2011年8月19日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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