Overseas
Chinese Democracy Coalition News and Article Release Issue Number: A665-O189
中国民主运动海外联席会议新闻与文章发布号：A665-O189
Release
Date: October 30, 2011
发布日：2011年10月30日
Topic:
Burma and China -- Roland Watson
标题：缅甸和中国 -- 罗兰德.华生
Original
Language Version: English (Chinese version at the end)
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Burma
and China (Remarks at the Forum in the U.S. Capitol: 1911 Chinese Xinhai
Revolution -- Review and Outlook)
by
Roland Watson, Dictator Watch
October
6, 2011
Introduction
I
have worked for seventeen years as a pro-democracy advocate, mainly on China's
Southwest neighbor, Burma. I have been involved in many activities, including
years of underground organizing. I have followed China closely for this entire
period. My group first disclosed that Burma was cooperating with North Korea,
and China, in a clandestine nuclear program.
Burma
and China
I
was asked to speak about Burma and China. Burma is a military regime in the
process of transforming to civilian. China is a civilian regime but which is
still grounded in Mao's revolution and the People's Liberation Army.
The
main difference is scale. China is massive - therefore, the task of bringing
democracy to the country appears huge if not insurmountable.
It
is not. With the correct approach - a popular uprising - the people of China,
like the people of Egypt and Libya, can be free.
The
regimes
Both
the Communist Party of China (CCP) and Burma's regime have only one goal: To
stay in power. The reason for this is simple. The rulers have great incentives
not to lose power.
1.
Physical risk: They could be killed, through a coup or by armed revolutionaries.
This risk is higher in Burma, which has active ethnic resistance armies, and
where it is known that many Burma Army soldiers actually side with the people.
2.
Tried for war and other crimes, and then imprisoned, or even executed.
3.
Lose their wealth, including of their families.
4.
Lose status, or "face." In East Asia, this is often the strongest motivation
of all. People will do anything not to lose face.
In
summary, the dictators of China, and Burma, have nothing to gain, and everything
to lose, from allowing democracy. To remove them, we have to accept this fact.
Regime
strategy
Both
the CCP and Burma's regime maintain control through imposing severe repression,
where all dissidents are arrested, tortured and in many cases killed.
More
generally, Burma's regime is now emulating the CCP. The regime set up the USDP,
the Union Solidarity and Development Party, with the generals trading uniforms
for suits. The USDP is now like the CCP, and if the regime is successful it
will be in power for decades to come.
The
people
The
people of Burma, like the people of China, want freedom. In recent years they
have begun to protest. However, for both countries the protests are generally
against specific grievances, not for freedom and democracy.
In
China the grievances includes working conditions, environmental pollution, and
corruption and abuse by Party officials.
In
Burma, there was a significant uprising in 2007, against energy price increases
and then the abuse of Buddhist monks. In the last two weeks, there have been
protests against a large dam at the source of the country's main river, the
Irrawaddy, which dam is being built by and for China. The President of Burma
has just suspended this dam.
Many
people believe this is a sign that Burma's regime is now open to reform. This
is not true. The rulers of Burma have two main threats, the ethnic armies and a
popular uprising. The dam involved both. The Kachin Independence Army was
blocking the delivery of construction supplies. The people were protesting the
destruction of the Irrawaddy River, which is a basic national symbol. So, and
even though it angered the CCP, the regime suspended the dam.
Also,
the other possible source of a popular uprising in Burma is anti-Chinese sentiment.
Burmese people are becoming more and more angry about the sale of the country's
natural resources to China, and the influx of Chinese people. Suspending the
dam was a way to relieve this pressure.
The
Arab Spring
Everyone
is aware of the Arab Spring movement in the Middle East. In Egypt, Libya,
Yemen, Syria and elsewhere, there is only one goal: Freedom. The people are
united around this, getting rid of their dictators, and will settle for nothing
less.
Freedom
for China, and Burma
The
people of China and Burma do not yet appear to grasp this, that they have to
put freedom and democracy above all other considerations. They need to learn
that human rights and environmental protection can never be guaranteed until
the CCP and the USDP are driven from power.
Local
grievances lead to local protests. But, if the focus is shifted to freedom,
this can be used to create national movements, and national protests. Tiananmen
Square can once again ring with voices calling for democracy.
Chinese
expatriates can do much to encourage and assist the people inside China to
redirect their emphasis from local grievances to democracy for the entire
country. There are many new activist approaches that can be used, and which I,
personally, as a prodemocracy advocate for East Asia, am looking for partners
to organize.
Bringing
democracy to China is a big task but it is not insurmountable. Any mountain, no
matter how large, can be brought down by drops of rain. If the people of China
unify around the goal of freedom and democracy, they too can bring down the
mountain that is the Communist Party.
Thank
you.
Related
website: www.dictatorwatch.org
Related
photo of Roland Watson:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2011/newsletters2011-3/WatsonRspeaks111006XinhaiForum.jpg
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中文版
Overseas
Chinese Democracy Coalition News and Article Release Issue Number: A665-O189
中国民主运动海外联席会议新闻与文章发布号：A665-O189
Release
Date: October 30, 2011
发布日：2011年10月30日
Topic:
Burma and China -- Roland Watson
标题：缅甸和中国 -- 罗兰德.华生
Original
Language Version: English (Chinese version at the end)
此号以英文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2011/report2011-10/WatsonRonBurma111030XinHaiForumA665-O189.htm
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缅甸和中国（在美国国会大厦《1911中国辛亥革命--回顾与前瞻》研讨会上的发言）
-- 独裁者观察创办人罗兰德.华生（Roland
Watson）
2011年10月6日，星期四
前言
十七年来，我一直是民主的倡导者，我的重点是中国西南部的邻邦缅甸。我参与了许多活动，包括地下组织的活动。在这整个阶段，我也密切关注中国的变化。是我的工作组第一次向世界披露了缅甸在和朝鲜、中国合作，进行着一个秘密核武器的项目。
缅甸和中国
大家希望我谈谈缅甸和中国的关系。缅甸正在经历从军方统治到民政国家的转变过程。中国虽然不是军政，但它仍然是建立在毛泽东革命和人民解放军的基础上。
两个国家的主要不同之处是大小。中国很大--因此，其民主进程将非常艰巨，虽然不是不可逾越的。
中国的民主进程的确是可能的。沿着正确的途径--如广大人民的起义--中国人民可以像埃及和利比亚人民一样获得自由。
政权
中国共产党和缅甸的政权都只有一个目标：保持他们的权力。原因很简单：统治者最强烈的愿望就是不失去权力。
1、实际风险：一旦丧失政权，他们可能在政变中或被武装的革命派所杀戮。这个风险在缅甸更高：缅甸有民族抵抗军，而人们知道许多缅甸军士兵实际上站在民众一边。
2、 另一个风险是因其战争及其它罪行而被审判，之后被送进监狱，甚至被处决。
3、丧失他们的财富，包括失去家庭的风险。
4、丢失地位、面子的风险。这一条在东亚经常是所有动机中最强的。人们不惜代价要保住面子。
总之，如果允许民主，中国的独裁者和缅甸的独裁者一样，不会有任何好处，而是丧失一切。要去除他们，我们就必须接受这个事实。
独裁政权的策略
中国共产党和缅甸的政府都通过对异己的镇压来保持控制：持不同政见者都被逮捕、受折磨甚至被杀害。
缅甸政权正在向中国政权看齐。缅甸政权建立联邦巩固与发展党，改将军的制服为西服。这个联邦巩固与发展党现在就像是中国共产党。如果这个政权成功，它将持政几十年。
老百姓
缅甸的老百姓和中国的老百姓一样渴望自由。最近几年他们开始反抗。但是，两国的反抗都常常只是针对特定事件的不满，而不是对民主和自由的直接诉求。
在中国，不满包括工作条件、环境污染、及政党官员的腐败作恶。
在缅甸，2007曾有过规模可观的起义，抗议能源价格上涨、然后是对佛教僧侣的虐待，等等。在过去两个星期中，已经有针对在缅甸的主要河流--伊洛瓦底江上为中国修建并由中国建造的大型水坝的抗议活动。缅甸总统刚刚宣布暂停建坝。
许多民众相信这是缅甸政府开始改革的征兆。但事实并非如此。缅甸统治者正面临两个威胁，民族矛盾和大众的起义。这个大坝与两者有关。克钦独立军企图阻止建筑材料的运输。大众也在抗议大坝的建筑对伊洛瓦底江的破坏。伊洛瓦底江是缅甸国家的标志。所以，尽管会激怒中共，缅甸政府还是决定停止建坝。
此外，缅甸另一个民众起义的可能来源于反华情绪。缅甸人民对将本国自然资源出售给中国以及中国人的大量进入变得越来越愤怒。暂停大坝也是缓解这种压力的一个措施。
阿拉伯之春
每个人都知道中东的阿拉伯之春运动。在埃及、利比亚、也门、叙利亚和其它各地，人们的目标只有一个：自由。人民为这个目标团结一致地努力，消灭独裁者，是最起码的目标。
中国和缅甸的自由
中国和缅甸的人民似乎还没有领会到这点：他们必须把自由和民主放在位于其它考虑之上的最高位置。他们需要明白，如果不结束中共和缅甸联邦巩固与发展党的一党专政，人权和环保是不可能得到任何保证的。
地区性的不满导致地区性的抗议。但是，如果将焦点转移到自由这个方面，将会造成全国性的运动和整个国家范围的抗议活动。天安门广场可以再次响起呼吁民主的声音。
中国的海外人士可以做很多事情，来鼓励和协助国内人民，帮助他们从解决当地事件的诉求转为对整个国家的民主诉求。有许多新的活动方式可以采用。而我个人，作为一个为东亚民主的斗士，寻找合作伙伴来组织大家一起为民主奋斗。
在中国推进民主是一个艰巨的任务。民主进程将非常艰巨，但这并不是不可实现的目标。任何高山，无论它多么高大，都可以被雨水冲泻。如果中国人民团结在自由和民主目标的周围，那他们也有能力把中国共产党这座大山推翻。
谢谢大家的倾听。
--罗兰德.华生Roland
Watson (roland@dictatorwatch.org)
相关图片:
独裁者观察创立人罗兰德.华生:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/pic/newsletters/newsletters2011/newsletters2011-3/WatsonRspeaks111006XinhaiForum.jpg
相关网站：独裁者观察 (www.dictatorwatch.org)
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