Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A673-W415
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A673-W415
Release
Date: Dec. 11, 2011
发布日：2011年12月11日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XLVI): The Base of the Economy is the Income of the
Working Class -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之四十六：经济的基础在于工薪阶层的收入
-- 魏京生
Original
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The
Way Out for China (Part XLVI): The
Base of the Economy is the Income of the Working Class
--
Wei Jingsheng
The
recent turmoil in the stock market did not spare Asia and China. As the economy in the United States and
Europe declines, it also has an impact on China's exports. The depreciation of the U.S. debt
results in China's foreign exchange reserves shrinking as well. All these dependencies illustrate that
it is unreasonable for the "patriotic angry youth" in China to
rejoice and gloat when they see other people's misery. Nowadays, the economic integration and
correlation of the world is very high.
That kind of selfish policy of the Chinese government will ultimately
harm China itself as well. We
often hear the politicians singing this high-pitched tune, yet in fact they do
not necessarily recognize the truth.
Especially these politicians and the so-called economic experts in China
do not see the interdependence.
The
average people sometimes also have this way of thinking: do not you think what
we gain is what they lose? But
this is a closed, original way of thinking, which does not represent the facts. The current situation is exactly
reversed. As the U.S. economy slipped
into recession, China's economy fell into recession as well. It is a lose-lose situation, rather
than a shift as you gain on the advantages of other's misfortune. Therefore the so-called "China
Model" is really harming the others and at the same time harming the
Chinese.
So
what is the so-called economy?
Many people interpret it as money.
This interpretation is wrong.
For each individual family or business, economic success means making
money. This is because money is
the intermediary between production and consumption. Using a scholars' more obscure term, it is an
equivalent. Put bluntly, money
moves in the opposite direction of commodities in the market, thus facilitating
the exchange of other commodities.
So,
when we say the money in your home represents your wealth, it is not
necessarily representing wealth in a country or the market. For example, when the currency is
devaluating, money in your pocket remains the same, but with less wealth. An even more extreme situation is when
the economy collapses or when the government invalidates its currency; then all
the money in your pocket is of no use.
Such things have happened in the world many times. Even in the last century in China it
occurred more than once. When the
economy collapses, the government has to replace it with new currency. Old money that did not get changed can
only be kept as a historical heritage.
Maybe after a few hundred years it could be sold as antiques.
So
what represents wealth and what is the economy in a state, or society, or the
market? That is the
consumption. Only the consumed
material wealth is the real wealth.
Money represents wealth only when the economy has a normal
operation. People who want to
consume wealth must have money to buy consumer goods in the market. In order to make money, it is necessary
to produce consumer goods. Money
and consumer goods move in the opposite direction, which is the market
economy. This consumption includes
the investment and accumulation for the purpose of increasing production
capacity, which is another kind of consumption. It needs to maintain a certain ratio with the consumer
goods. When the ratio is too low,
it will result in lower production capacity. When it is too high, it will result in an insufficient
market .
The
economic recession now in both China and the U.S. is due to the same
reason. It is due to too much
accumulation and too much money flowing into the hands of the investors. At the same time it produces an
enormous gap between rich and poor, it also results in economic
imbalances. Or putting it in
another way, the Chinese workers produce many products, but they only get small
wages. The money from these
products sold in the U.S. did not create the corresponding Chinese market. Meanwhile, the U.S. workers lost their
jobs, and the capitalists who made money from the Chinese goods will not give
their money to these workers for consumption. Thus, the U.S. market is reduced while the Chinese market
did not expand. As a result, the
combined consumer market of both China and the U.S. is reduced, so production
is reduced accordingly. This
vicious cycle is the recession, or more seriously the economic crisis.
Of
course, the situation is much more complex than this theoretical description. It includes the rich people in both
China and the United States lending money to the U.S. financial markets in an
effort to help Americans' over-consumption, eventually leading to the huge U.S.
debt and also delaying the accumulating economic crisis. This series of many secondary reasons
are all very important. However,
most important is that the income of the working class in the United States had
reduced, while the income of the working class in China has had little
increase, accompanied by a lack of corresponding investment for technological
advances to consume the excess accumulation. The excess accumulation first resulted in the financial
crisis, and following that caused the slowdown of the overall economy. The fundamental reason is that the so-called
"China Model" resulted in a money surplus with insufficient
consumption.
Before
China had access to the Western market economy through free trade, the Western
market was able to maintain a normal ratio of consumption and investment with
the normal regulation of the Western governments and social institutions. Under the premise of no lack of
investment, it was able to rapidly develop its consumption, which is the basis
for economic development. There
was a small number of abnormally developed authoritarian countries that could
not cause major economic upheaval.
Therefore, during the post-war decades, the Western economy was able to
develop stably and fast leaving the Communist countries with non-market
economies way behind, which was the root cause of the collapse of the Communist
states.
However,
after China, a big country with a low human rights standard and semi-market
economy, joined in the free market economy the Western capitalists found a new
way to earn excess profits. For
more than one decade, exactly these excess profits broke the balance between
accumulation and consumption, and restrained the expansion of markets. Even though the Americans were
borrowing money to maintain their consumption, it had come to an end. These excess profits force the economy
to shrink, to walk into a crisis or recession.
The
so-called China model put the whole world back to the capitalist state before
the two world wars. Excess profits
caused a relative decline of consumption.
Production that lacks markets has to either contract synchronously or
find new markets. In today's
world, initiating war cannot bring the expansion of the market. Therefore, both the Chinese and the
United States governments are facing the same issue, which is how to expand
their effective consumption domestically.
However, the two countries have opposite conditions. China must improve the working class
wages while reducing exports and increasing imports. The United States must increase its production, to reduce
the deficit that was maintained by borrowing money.
Small
countries like Switzerland can maintain their revenues by playing with finance
and charging services fees. But a
populous country like the United States cannot. So President Obama's policy of saving the financial sector
but not the production was completely wrong. Without the rise of the working class, there would be no
prosperity in the United States in the past, the present, and the future. The same is true for China.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110812ChinaWayOut46workingclassincome.mp3
(Written
and recorded on August 12, 2011.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A673-W415
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A673-W415
Release
Date: Dec. 11, 2011
发布日：2011年12月11日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XLVI): The Base of the Economy is the Income of the
Working Class -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之四十六：经济的基础在于工薪阶层的收入
-- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2011/report2011-12/WeiJS111211ChinaWayOut46workingclassincomeA673-W415.htm
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《中国的出路》之四十六：经济的基础在于工薪阶层的收入
-- 魏京生
最近股市动荡，亚洲和中国也不例外。由于美国和欧洲的经济仍然在下滑，中国的出口也受到了连带的影响。美国的债券贬值，中国的外汇储备也跟着缩水。这一切都说明，爱国愤青们每每看到人家倒霉就欢欣鼓舞、幸灾乐祸，实在是没有什么道理。现在的时代，世界的经济一体化的程度非常高，相互的关联度非常高。中国政府那种损人利己的政策，最终损害的也包括中国自己。政治家们经常唱这种高调，实际上并不一定认可这个道理，特别是中国那些政治家和所谓的经济专家。
小老百姓们有时候也有这种思维方式。我们赚了不就是他们赔了吗？但这是一种封闭的、原始的思维方式，它不代表事实。现在的情况正好相反，美国的经济陷入了衰退，中国的经济也陷入了衰退。这是个两败的局面，而不是此消彼长，不是别人倒霉了你就占了便宜。所以说所谓的中国模式，是在损人不利己。
所谓的经济是什么呢？很多人理解成为赚钱。这是错误的。从一家一户或者一个企业的角度看，经济的成功就意味着赚钱。这是因为钱是生产和消费之间的代表，或者说中介。用学者们比较晦涩的名词说叫做等价物。直截了当地说，钱在市场上和商品反方向流动，方便了其它商品的交换。
所以说，钱在你们家里代表财富，但在国家或者说市场上并不见得能代表财富。例如当货币贬值的时候，你口袋里的钱没少，但至少有一部分已经不代表财富了。更极端的是，当经济崩溃的时候，政府一旦说要货币作废了，你的钱就全都不是财富了。这种事在这个世界上发生过不少次了。咱们中国在上个世纪也发生过不止一次。经济一旦崩溃，政府不得不更换新货币。没来得及换的一大堆钱，就只能藏在家里当历史遗产了。过几百年后，也许能当古董卖。
那么对国家、或者社会、或者说在市场上，什么代表财富，什么是经济呢？那就是消费。只有人们消费掉的物质财富才是真正的财富。钱只有在经济正常运转的时候，才能代表财富。人们要消费财富，就要有钱到市场上去购买消费品。为了挣钱，就要去生产消费品。钱和消费品向相反的方向运动，这就是市场经济。这包括为了提高生产能力所作的投资和积累，也是另一种消费品。它和生活消费品之间必须保持一定的比例。低了会造成生产能力不足；高了就会造成市场不足。
现在中国和美国的经济衰退是同一个原因造成的。这就是积累过高，钱太多地流向了投资者的手里。在造成巨大的贫富差距的同时，造成了经济的不平衡。换一个说法就是，中国的工人生产了很多的产品，可是他们只拿到很少的工资。在美国市场换到的钱并没有创造相应的中国市场。而美国的工人失去了工作，资本家在中国商品上赚到的钱也不会拿来给他们消费。这样美国的市场缩小了；而中国的市场也没有扩大。结果是，中美两国的消费市场的总合缩小了，生产也相应地缩小。这种恶性循环就是衰退，或者更严重点就是经济危机。
情况当然比这种理论描述复杂得多。其中包括中国和美国的富人们，把钱借给美国的金融市场帮助美国人过度消费，最终造成美国债台高筑，同时延缓了和积累着经济危机。这一系列许多的次一级的原因，都很重要。但是最重要的是美国工薪阶层的收入相对减少，中国的工薪阶层收入增加很少，也没有相应的技术进步投资以消耗掉过剩的积累。过剩的积累首先造成金融危机，随后就暴露出了整体经济下滑的形势。而根本的原因就是所谓的中国模式造成的金钱过剩而消费不足。
在中国加入到西方的自由贸易的市场经济体制之前，西方的市场在政府和社会体制的正常调节下，保持着消费和投资的正常比例。在不缺乏投资的前提下，迅速发展的生活消费，是经济发展的基础。少数不正常发展的专制国家，不会造成大的经济动荡。所以战后的几十年经济平稳而又快速地发展，把非市场经济的共产党国家甩在了后边，这是造成共产党国家崩溃的根本原因。
但是在中国这个低人权的、半市场经济的大国加入到自由市场经济体系中之后，西方的资本家们又找到了赚取超额利润的新方法。十几年来，正是这个超额的利润，打破了积累和消费之间的平衡，抑制了市场的扩大。即使美国人靠借债维持消费，现在也走到了头。这使得经济不得不走向缩水，不得不走入危机或者衰退。
所谓的中国模式，使得整个世界回到了两次大战以前的资本主义状态。超额的利润造成了消费的相对萎缩。缺乏市场的生产要么同步萎缩，要麽寻找新的市场。现在的世界，发动战争已经不能带来扩大的市场了。所以中国和美国的政府面临着相同的课题，这就是扩大本国的有效的消费。但两国的条件相反。中国必须提高工薪阶层的工资，同时减少出口，增加进口。美国必须增加本国的生产，减少靠借贷维持的贸易逆差。
瑞士那样的小国可以靠玩金融赚取服务费维持收入。美国这样的人口大国不可能。所以奥巴马总统救金融而不救生产的政策是完全错了。没有工薪阶层的崛起，就没有美国过去和现在的，以及将来的繁荣。对中国来说也一样。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS110812ChinaWayOut46workingclassincome.mp3
（撰写并录音于2011年8月12日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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