Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A687-W426
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A687-W426
Release
Date: Jan. 29, 2012
发布日：2012年1月29日
Topic:
Xi Jinping's Upcoming Visit to the USA -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：习近平访美 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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Xi
Jinping's Upcoming Visit to the USA
--
Wei Jingsheng
Next
month, February 14, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping will visit the United
States. Just as when last year the
Vice President of the United States visited China, this visit is causing great
interest in the international media.
The
reason for the great interest about U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's visit to
China last year was because he did not follow the routine by focusing his visit
on the top two figures (President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao) in China,
but instead paid attention to the internally designated successor of the
Communist Party. This diversion
means that the United States puts its hope in dealing with China on its next
generation of leaders, and does not have much more interest in the current
leaders.
Why
so? The main reason is that
Sino-US relations have not had any positive development over the years of Hu
Jintao and Wen Jiabao's ruling.
Not only has there not been the slightest progress on human rights and
political issues, there was not any positive content on trade and other
economic issues either. This lack
of progress has forced the United States to gradually move toward a trade
confrontation. Its policy adjustment
in the political and military aspects has already begun. There is a stronger and stronger smell
of gunpowder from various political, economic and military confrontations
between the two countries.
This
year is a big US election year that includes a presidential election. Intertwined with economic and political
issues, politicians' behavior on the China issue has become the main topic of
this election. President Obama
does not have an absolute advantage.
So, the U.S. administration is determined to obtain economic and
political concessions during Xi Jinping's USA visit this time. Otherwise the Obama administration will
lose the trust of voters and supporters.
Such a loss could be the biggest challenge for the ruling Democratic
administration before the official start of this year's elections.
From
the attitude of both countries, the strategic adjustment of the USA has already
formed a great deal of pressure against China's international politics. On the issues of the South China Sea,
trade, and Iran, the recent behavior on the China side is all somehow confused,
as if it does not know to move left or right, to advance or retreat. Yet, the problems in the South China
Sea and the trade friction are also directly related to the domestic situation
in China, as well as the succession of the leadership there. Thus, the current leaders conveniently
yielded and kicked the ball to the successor, guiding people to pin their hopes
on Xi Jinping.
Therefore,
Xi Jinping will encounter a lot of pressure during his visit to the U.S. this
time. Only now, when the visit is
approaching, have they made the announcement. This delay illustrates that the struggle within the
Communist Party regarding this visit is fierce. Various cliques bargained and struggled, yet to the end
failed to reach unanimous agreement for everyone to accept. Therefore, I feel that this visit by Xi
Jinping will not meet the needs of the United States. Xi will not bring the needed chips for the Americans. His visiting agenda is an indication.
Of
course, as a formal visit, Xi has to visit the US capital, Washington DC. In addition, he will be visiting Iowa,
which he visited before, and California where the largest Chinese population in
the US lives. Both options are
good for him to play a sentimental card, in an effort to dilute the failure of
his visit. At least, he can add
some sentimental show in the Chinese media, so he will not be too
embarrassed. This show is also
what Xi Jinping needs for his domestic politics. Otherwise, the visit will become the target of political
opponents and shake his position as the successor in the contention.
To
speak in detail, if Xi makes major concessions regarding trade and the exchange
rate, it will affect the interests of big capital in both countries. That will cause some defections to
support his rival, and thus for sure affect the personnel arrangement for the
18th Congress of the Communist Party and even his own position in the
future. However, this concession
will receive the support of the majority of Chinese, and is also in line with
the U.S. interests. These competing
interests in the form of large-scale cooperation could be the key deciding
point. To choose is indeed very
difficult and needs great wisdom and great courage. I reckon that before Xi gets his real power he will choose a
strategy of delay and avoidance, which will disappoint the Americans. From his selection to visit Iowa and
California for some sentimental show, you can see some clues.
In
the past few years the United States has taken an aggressive posture on the
issues of Iran, the South China Sea and Taiwan, but the Chinese side does not
really have the power for true confrontation. So its policy is inevitably wavering and unsure. The United States is most likely to
make concessions in these areas, but Xi Jinping must make concessions in
economic areas. Without a
concession that is big enough to influence U.S. elections, there is no need for
the Obama administration to make concessions to Xi Jinping. This exchange of interest is almost
naked.
So
what concessions could Xi make?
From the most recent behavior by Wen Jiabao, making small-scale retreats
on human rights and the exchange rate are more likely. However, whether this concession meets
the needs of the election show for the US administration will be the content of
the face-to-face bargaining. I
estimate that a bargain between the weak-charactered Obama and
strong-charactered Xi will not give the US too much of a good deal.
Then
what could Xi Jinping take back home?
With the election of Ma Ying-jeou, there is no need for the U.S. to help
on Taiwan's issue. There is
already an Iranian government concession on the Iran issue. After all, lifting oil sanctions does
not conform to the interests of the petroleum companies of both the U.S. and
China. So the only things left are
the international disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea. The United States will make some
concessions to Xi Jinping on these issues, which will help Xi to consolidate
the support of patriotic public opinion.
The American voters will not be very concerned about the territorial
size of Japan and the Philippines.
These will be a common interest that both the USA and China can accept.
In
short, this upcoming Xi Jinping's visit to the United States is related to the
upcoming changes of the leaders in both the USA and China. It is also related to the future
economic and political development of both countries. The relationships between these two countries and the different
interest groups within both countries are very complicated and need both sides
to apply their own political wisdom to balance. Using the words of an average Chinese, it is a time to watch
a good drama.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2012/WeiJS120127onXiJPvisitsUSA.mp3
(Written
and recorded on January 27, 2012.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A687-W426
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A687-W426
Release
Date: Jan. 29, 2012
发布日：2012年1月29日
Topic:
Xi Jinping's Upcoming Visit to the USA -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：习近平访美 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2012/report2012-01/WeiJSonXiJPvisitsUSA120129A687-W426.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
习近平访美
-- 魏京生
下个月，二月十四号，中国的国家副主席习近平将要访问美国。这和去年美国副总统访问中国一样，引起了国际媒体很大的兴趣。
去年美国副总统拜登访问中国引起很大兴趣的原因，是因为他没有按照常规，把访问的重点放在第一和第二号人物的身上，而是放在了中共内定的接班人身上。这也就是说美国把和中国打交道的希望放在了下一代领导人身上，对现任领导人已经没有多大的兴趣了。
为什么会这样呢？最主要的原因是胡锦涛、温家宝执政多年来，中美关系没有任何正面的发展。不仅在人权和各项政治议题上没有丝毫的进展，而且在贸易等经济议
题上也没有任何正面的内容。这迫使美国逐渐走向了贸易对抗的局面，在政治和军事方面的政策调整已经开始。中美两国在政治经济和军事各方面对抗的火药味越来越浓。
现在美国又正值大选年，政治家们在中国问题上的表现已经和经济政治等问题纠缠在一起，成为这次大选的主要话题。奥巴马总统也没有绝对的优势。这就说明美国政府在这次习近平的访问中势在必得，要获得经济政治方面的利益。否则当局将失去选民和支持者的信任。这可以说是在今年选战正式开始前，对执政的民主党政府的最大考验。
从中美双方的态势来看，美国的战略调整已经对中国的国际政治形成了极大的压力。在南海问题、贸易问题、伊朗问题上，中国近期的表现都显得有些错乱。左支右咄，进退失据。而南海和贸易摩擦的问题，又直接关系到国内形势，也关系到领导人换届的事务。于是，现任领导人就顺水推舟地把球踢给了接班人，引导大家把希望寄托在习近平的身上。
所以，习近平这一次访问美国的压力很大，直到现在日期临近了才宣布。这说明中共内部对这次访问的斗争很激烈。各方讨价还价，明争暗斗，最终也没有达成一致的协议，没有大家都接受的价码。所以估计习近平这次访问不会满足美国方面的需要，没有带来美国人需要的筹码。这从他访问的日程上可以反映出来。
正式访问当然要访问首都华盛顿。除此之外访问的两个地方，一个是他过去访问过的爱荷华州，另一个是华人最多的加利福尼亚州。这两个选择都有利于他打温情牌，以便冲淡他这次访问的失败。至少，他在中文媒体上可以增加些温情秀，看上去不那么难堪。这也是习近平国内政治的需要。否则这次访问就会成为政敌攻击的目标，动摇他在换届争夺中的地位。
说得详细一些，这次他如果在贸易和汇率方面作出大的让步，就会影响到中美两国大资本的利益。其中必然会有一些人倒戈支持他的竞争对手，必然会影响到十八大的人事布局，甚至他本人的地位。但是这种让步会得到大多数中国老百姓的支持，也符合美国的利益。这种大开大合的利益之争，可以说是关键的一搏。选择起来确实很难，需要大智慧和大勇气。估计习近平在还没有真正掌权之前，会选择拖延和回避的策略，也就是说会让美国人失望。这从他选择访问爱荷华州和加利福尼亚州
温情秀的动作上，可以看出一些端倪。
在伊朗、南海和台湾问题上，美国几年来都采取咄咄逼人的态势，而中国方面并没有真正对抗的实力。所以政策也就必然是摇摆不定，进退失据。美国是最可能在这些方面做出让步的，但是习近平必须在经济方面做出让步。没有对美国大选有足够影响力的让步，奥巴马政府也就没有必要对习近平做出让步。这种利益交换几乎是赤裸裸的。
那么习近平可能做出什么让步呢？从温家宝最近一段时间的表现来看，在人权和汇率方面小幅度让步的可能性比较大。但这种让步能不能满足美国方面做选举秀的需要，就是双方当面讨价还价的内容了。在性格软弱的奥巴马和性格强悍的习近平之间讨价还价，估计美国不会占到什么便宜。
但是习近平能带回去什么呢? 台湾问题因为马英九的当选，已经没有需要美国帮忙的事情了。伊朗问题已经有了伊朗政府的让步，取消石油制裁也不符合美国和中国石油公司的利益。剩下的只有南海和东海的国际争端了。美国在这些问题上给习近平一些让步，有利于巩固习近平获得爱国主义舆论的支持。而且美国选民不会很在意日本和菲律宾的领土有多大。这是中美双方都可以接受的共同利益。
总之，这次习近平访问美国，关系到中美两国领导人换届。也关系到中美两国未来的经济和政治发展。两国和各国内部不同利益集团的关系错综复杂，需要双方发挥自己的政治智慧来平衡。用老百姓的话来说，就是有好戏看了。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2012/WeiJS120127onXiJPvisitsUSA.mp3
（撰写并录音于2012年1月27日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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