Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A689-W428
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A689-W428
Release
Date: Feb. 5, 2012
发布日：2012年2月5日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part LII): The Chinese Economic Structure Must be
Adjusted -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之五十二：必须调整中国的经济结构 -- 魏京生
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The
Way Out for China (Part LII): The Chinese Economic Structure Must be Adjusted
--
Wei Jingsheng
Recently,
Economics Professor Lang Xianping had some accurate comments about the current
economic situation in China. However,
he was not willing to link the responsibilities to the political system, and
thus was unable to provide a realistic prescription. Nevertheless, the situation he described according to the
surveyed data is indeed the real picture of China's economy. The data may seem like exaggerations;
in fact, they are not. Not only is
the data true, long ago, a lot of the contents were already haltingly delivered
by other experts who are familiar with the matter. The reason that Professor Lang's comments produced a
sensational effect is because he dared to voice a conclusion that others have
not dared.
One
of his important conclusions is that Chinese economic structure is extremely
irrational and very deformed.
During a speech in Shanghai, he pointed out that the Chinese people's
total consumption is a shocking 8% of the total GDP (Gross Domestic Product),
even lower than the least developed African nation at 16%. During his recent lecture in northeast
China, he also pointed out that 70% of the GDP used in construction and related
industries. The words Professor
Lang used were "to produce reinforced concrete". That leaves only 30% for all the
Chinese people across the country, and most of that is exported in exchange for
foreign currency.
Most
of that 30% went to the pockets of corrupt officials and both Chinese and
foreign capitalists. Thus, the 1.3
billion Chinese people could only consume that mere 8% of the GDP -- a living
fraction lower than that of Third World countries in a country that is known as
the world's second largest economy.
The two irrational structures, the minimal public consumption and the
excessive construction are the root cause of unsustainable development in
China, as well as the root cause of most of social conflict in China. Not only is China's economy not
sustainable; its politics is unsustainable as well.
So,
regardless of whoever is in power, whether the Communist Party dictatorship or
a democratic replacement, that government must change the economic structure
making the whole and each detailed part more reasonable. Then, the development of China and the
Chinese people's living standard could be on the right track, the society could
be in relative harmony, and politics would be relatively stable. Otherwise, intense social and economic
conflicts will inevitably lead to the collapse of the government and social
unrest.
How
to change to make it reasonable?
Let us examine the problems first.
The two irrationals pointed out by Professor Lang, minimal consumption
and excessive construction, are in fact two aspects of one irrational
policy. From one perspective, the
peoples' consumption is too low, which results in a small domestic market. From another perspective, the
government invests most of the money on real estate projects for high profit,
meanwhile holding down the exchange rate in an effort to dump consumer goods,
which could be used domestically, in the international market. Some of these foreign currency was used
for foreign goods in an attempt to increase consumption, mostly among the
wealthy, but that was just a small part.
This profiteer type of development strategy, like fishing by draining
the whole pond, is the root cause that leads to deformities of the economic
structure. This is that
mercantilist strategy very politely referred to by the international media and
scholars.
Under
the control of this profiteering strategy by Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and Hu
Jintao, the people of China and the United States have given away high profit
to the Chinese government, and the bureaucratic capitalist class and
international capital that has relations with the Chinese government. The result after they united together
and made huge money is the impoverishment of the people in China and other
countries including the United States, thus resulted the decline of the global
consumer market, thus the global economic recession. During this recession the most miserable ones are the
Chinese people.
The
consumption level of the Chinese people was designed at a minimum for survival. Now with the economic recession,
naturally the Chinese government transfers the crisis to its poorest
citizens. More and more people
cannot survive by relying on their meager income. This is when politics has entered a state of crisis. So adjusting the economic structure is
not only what the people need, but also any government in China would
pressingly need.
From
the overall level, this adjustment must start from increasing the domestic
consumption of the Chinese people first.
Simply put, there are two things that must be done immediately. One is to stop the real estate
investment contributing to the bubble economy, and move toward investment in
other consumer goods. The lower
real estate prices could help to recycle the surplus of currency in
circulation, and to curb inflation in China. Another is to improve the RMB exchange rate, to increase
imports to fill in the shortage of the domestic market. This can also recycle currency in
circulation in the domestic market and curb inflation.
These
two simple measures could both curb inflation and improve people's living
standards. The subsequent result
is that China's economic development model would gradually move towards
something more reasonable, while political crisis will tend to ease. However, the cost of these measures is
what the Communist Party and its bureaucrat-capitalist class would not
accept. The cost is that the
government's revenue, along with that of the bureaucrat-capitalist class and
the multinational companies, would drop significantly, even becoming negative.
If
the Chinese government was a democratic government that must be accountable to
the people, or even if it was only a kingdom or dynasty having a leader who is
not fatuous enough to be irresponsible for the regime, it would take these
simple measures of Robin Hood to save the country, unless it has already lost
authority to take the measures.
But
the current China is a deformed country, with a deformed government. The government does not need to be
accountable to the people, nor responsible to the state. They are only responsible to the
interest groups of their own bureaucrat-capitalist class. When the class of rich and powerful say
no, the government will not do anything.
You need not ask them what would they do when this country
collapses. That is easy. They already know this government will
collapse. They have already
transferred or are transferring what they treasure -- their wallets, their
wives and children - to other countries that are governed well. Even their mistresses have opened
money-laundering enterprises in the West, which has traumatized anti-drug
police to wonder which kind of money is getting laundered. So there is a modern vocabulary term in
China now called "stripped officials", along with a saying called:
"I am a rogue, so why should I be afraid". Whether China collapses or nor really has little to do with
these Communist officials.
Under
the control of a bureaucrat-capitalist class which is not responsible and does
not want to be responsible, will anyone be able to pay a price of their own to
save this country? So Professor
Lang had to use language ??that does not belong to a professor: "You all
should go cry." Although he
does not dare to say the meaning clearly, his conclusion is indisputable. Without overthrowing the rule of the
bureaucrat-capitalist class that is neither responsible nor wants to be
responsible, there is no hope for China.
So crying becomes the only option and no one can save you all.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS111113ChinaWayOut52adjusteconomy.mp3
(Written
and recorded on November 13, 2011.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A689-W428
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A689-W428
Release
Date: Feb. 5, 2012
发布日：2012年2月5日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part LII): The Chinese Economic Structure Must be
Adjusted -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之五十二：必须调整中国的经济结构 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2012/report2012-02/WeiJS120205ChinaWayOut52adjusteconomyA689-W428.htm
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《中国的出路》之五十二：必须调整中国的经济结构
-- 魏京生
最近郎咸平教授对中国的经济现状有一番精确的评论。虽然他不愿意把责任联系到政治体制，所以开不出切合实际的药方。但是他根据调查数据描绘的景象，却是现在中国经济的真实景象。看起来似乎很夸张，实际上并不夸张。那只不过是实情而已，而且很多内容其他了解内情的专家早就吞吞吐吐说过了。郎教授能产生轰动效应，是因为他敢说别人不敢说的结论。
他的一个重要的结论，是指出中国的经济结构非常不合理，非常畸形。他在上海的一次讲演中指出，中国人民的消费总额占国民生产总额的比例，甚至低于非洲最不发达国家16%的比例，而只有8%这个吓人一跳的数字。最近在东北的一次讲演中，他又指出了国民生产总值中70%用在了建筑和相关的行业。用郎教授的话说就是生产了钢筋水泥。而全国人民的消费就只靠那30%的生产和出口换取外汇。
这其中的大部分还进入了贪官污吏和中外资本家的口袋。所以十三亿中国人民只能消费那区区可怜的8%；只能在号称世界第二的经济大国中，享受还不如第三世界的生活水平。这两个不合理的结构，就是中国不可持续发展的病根，也是中国大部分社会矛盾的病根。不仅中国的经济不可持续；政治也一样不可持续。
所以，无论谁执政，无论是共产党想继续执政或者是推翻共产党建立民主政治，都必须调整经济结构，使得全局性的结构和每一个细致部分的结构都趋向于比较合理。这样，中国的发展和中国人民的生活才能够步入正轨，社会也才能够比较的和谐，政治也才能够比较平稳。否则，激烈的社会和经济矛盾必然会导致政府垮台，社会动乱。
怎样调整才能够合理呢？让我们先看看矛盾在哪里。郎教授指出的这两个不合理，其实是一个不合理的两个方面。从一个角度看，是人民的消费太低，导致国内市场狭小。从另一个角度看，是政府为了多赚钱，把投资都放在了利润高的房地产项目上；同时压低人民币汇率把本来就缺少的消费品倾销到国际市场换取一部分消费品，来平衡市场。这种钱串子脑筋、竭泽而渔的奸商式发展战略，是导致畸形经济结构的根本原因。这就是国际媒体和学者很客气地说的那个重商主义战略。
在邓小平、江泽民、胡锦涛的这个奸商战略的管制下，中国和美国的老百姓不得不把高额的利润奉献给了中国政府，和与中国政府有关系的官僚资产阶级和国际大资本。他们结成联盟赚大钱的后果，就是中美等国人民的贫困化，就是全球消费市场的衰退，也就是全球的经济衰退。在这个衰退中最悲惨的是中国人民。
中国人民的消费水平本来就被设计在最低生存线上。现在经济衰退，中国政府就自然而然的把危机转嫁给了最贫穷的老百姓。越来越多的人无法靠微薄的收入生存下去，这就是政治进入了危机状态。所以不仅仅是老百姓需要调整结构，任何在中国执政的政府也都迫切地需要调整经济结构。
这个调整，从整体来看必须从增加国内人民的消费入手。简单的说有两件事必须马上做。一个是停止向泡沫经济的房地产投资，转向其它生活消费品方向投资。降低房价可以回收过剩的流通货币，抑制通货膨胀。另一个就是提高人民币汇率，增加进口填补国内市场的短缺。这也可以回收国内市场上的流通货币，抑制通货膨胀。
这两项简单的措施，既可以抑制通货膨胀，也可以提高人民的生活水平。后续的结果就是中国的经济发展模式逐渐走向合理，政治危机趋向于缓和。但是付出的代价是共产党和它的官僚资产阶级所不能接受的。这个代价就是政府的收入大幅度下降，同时官僚资产阶级和跨国大公司的收入也会同步下降，甚至成为负数。
中国的政府如果是一个必须对人民负责的民主政府，或者哪怕是对自己的政权负责的、尚未进入昏庸状态的皇帝国王的政府，它也会采取上述简单的措施，劫富济贫拯救这个国家，除非它已经没有权威采取措施了。
可是中国现在是一个畸形的国家、畸形的政府。政府既不需要对人民负责，也不需要对国家负责。他们只对自己这个官僚资产阶级的利益集团负责。有钱有势的阶级们说不，他们就什么也不能做。问问他们这个国家垮台了他们怎么办？好办。他们已经知道这个政权必然会垮台，已经或者正在把自己的钱包，老婆和孩子这三件宝转移到别人治理得很好的国家去了。甚至连他们的二奶们都在美国开办了洗钱的企业，闹得禁毒的警察都搞不清这是洗的什么钱。所以有一个现代词汇叫做裸官，还有一句名言叫做：我是流氓我怕谁。中国垮不垮台和他们已经没多大关系了。
在这样一个不负责任也不想负责任的官僚资产阶级管制下，能让他们付出代价来拯救这个国家吗？所以郎教授只好用不是教授的语言说：你们都哭去吧。这意思他虽然不敢明说，结论却是不容置疑的。不推翻这个不符责任也不想负责任的官僚资产阶级的统治，中国就没有希望了。所以只能是哭去吧，谁也救不了你们了。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS111113ChinaWayOut52adjusteconomy.mp3
（撰写并录音于2011年11月13日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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