Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A696-W435
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A696-W435
Release
Date: March 11, 2012
发布日：2012年3月11日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part LVI): More about Reform or Revolution -- Wei
Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之五十六：再谈改革还是革命 -- 魏京生
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Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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The
Way Out for China (Part LVI): More about Reform or Revolution
--
Wei Jingsheng
The
turn of the year was very busy.
Non-Chinese were paying attention to the death of North Korean dictator
Kim Jong Il, while the situation in East Asia was complicated and
confusing. Chinese people were
concerned when the youth idol Han Han suddenly burst forth with strange commentaries
that came as a surprise to his fans.
So let us start with this concern.
In
the past, Han Han did not get much of my attention. He talked mostly about trivial things. Moreover, he gave me the impression of
cajoling the public with claptrap.
So it was normal for him to become a teen idol, not worth being praised
or being disparaged.
He
stated himself that if democracy is successful, he would turn the muzzle gun
around and be the fence sitter for its opposite. In short, he will always rely on publishing remarks that are
harmless yet against the tide, in a way to maintain the number of his fans. In normal society, this attitude is the
conventional strategy of most of the stars and gives little cause for
criticism.
However,
recently, Han Han suddenly began to talk about three big subjects in sequence,
which have resulted in heated debates among the netizens. So I quickly browsed a bit and found
that he was talking in old tunes.
Moreover, these old tunes parallel the Chinese Communist propaganda
through its employed writers and lack of sensational style Han once had. Then why did his articles draw
enthusiastic discussions?
I
think there are two points worth noting.
The
first is Han Han's role change, which made many of his fans feel cheated to
death. Generally, young people
like to enter the literature world through sentimental writings. This way is safe but not so easy. In an environment where people do not
dare to go one step beyond the bounds of transgression, sentimental writings
may become a difficult path. So
cajoling the public with claptrap and saying something against the tide became
a shortcut. However, it is not
easy to be a master; if what is said has depth, then it leads to prison
sentences; if what is said does not have enough depth, then it will not be
effective. So there are only a few
people who could go over this difficult path.
Undoubtedly,
Han Han was one of the best. As a
high school youth that in the eyes of the modern day people lacks culture, he
could cause a sensation in the literature world and yet avoid a jail
sentence. His talent is not due to
his thoughts or elegant writings, but due to his vision. He was good at finding a crack in the
egg: to be able to sting the rotten egg behind that crack, yet not to be caught
by the Internet police and the Propaganda Department of the Communist
Party. An ordinary person cannot
catch up with this kind of sharp wit and vision. Although Han's talent was not to the degree found in every
age, it does belong to the minority who could reach a high degree of
proficiency in modern days.
And
Han is very self-aware, knowing when to retreat in face of the dangerous
current. That the Central
Propaganda Department and the Internet police found it difficult to handle him
does not mean they could never handle him. Meanwhile, the Internet users in China have high expectations
of him so he could expose himself to the danger accidentally. Instead of hitting a brick wall and
then turning back, it is better to stop before good turns to bad. After making enough money, returning
home for comfortable days would be a good policy for an gentleman in ancient
times. If one cannot be a hermit
while serving the court, then being a hermit while living in the society was
still a good choice.
Unfortunately,
this red dynasty of Communism is not like the ancient times. The Communist Party has a tradition of
digging down three feet for its need of "class struggle". Even before Han Han, there were already
a lot of precedents of people changing their roles after the Communist Party
worked on them. How would the
Party let this young man maintain his good image by retreating after his
success? With his luxury house and
car as well as money, and especially a loving wife and daughter to be concerned
about, the Party will treat Han like an egg with cracks to lay flies' eggs
unless Han is a heartless person.
There is not that many people who could face this threat. Han Han has his unspeakable pain. So the young people must pay attention
to this situation and not think that one is always lucky enough to get away
from the devil.
The
second noteworthy thing is that the topic of this enthusiastic discussion is
still "should we have a revolution or reform." The Chinese Communist Party hopes to
use some transformed literati to guide public opinion, thus to achieve what it
wants. But Han Han is a smart
guy. He did not want to be guided
by the others, but rather to guide the others. So this time, although his conclusion was the platitude of
the Communist Party, the titles are the most sensitive topics in China. More, he managed to get the chance that
his speeches would not be deleted or blocked, so it was just as well to take
the chance and make an advertisement for his latest book and get popular on the
Internet again. Why not?
Indeed,
the netizens did so along with him.
As they were taking this opportunity to attack Han Han in the way they
wanted, the netizens were able to express their feelings in the way they
want. Almost all of their opinions
were in favor of a democratic revolution.
The discussion almost becomes an opinion poll for democratic
revolution. That development
caught the Central Propaganda Department as a big surprise by this double
loss. Originally it thought that
the middle class Chinese who have access to the Internet would follow Han's
conclusion. Although dissatisfied,
these middle class Chinese would still be afraid of revolution and the loss of
what they already have. But this
opinion poll proves that even the majority of the middle class in China has
also reached their limit of tolerance.
Now, it is already a time to consider the issue of survival. It is too late to ask if it is time for
regime change.
Now,
even within the Communist Party there is a group of people who see this
reality. They are no longer
pinning their hopes on the strategy of both deception and repression by strong
hands. Their reasons are either
due to the ideals of their parents' youthful time and they cannot bear to see
the corrupt officials who oppress and exploit the people, or just due to
self-protection because they do not want to receive a bloody revenge after the
revolution. Regardless of whatever
reason, these people are also shouting loudly with risk: besides this road of
democracy, there is no other way out for China.
But
these vocal people are not the majority within the Communist Party and there is
almost no hope for peaceful reform.
The Communist Party leadership is firmly held in the hands of the
dictatorship camp. The people in
that dictatorship camp argue only about what concessions they must make to
retain the one-party dictatorship of the Communist Party. They do not consider the multi-party
democratic system at all, and do not intend to reform towards democracy. Even though they may scream reform, it
would be no more than what happened at the end of the Qing Dynasty when they
elected a parliament composed of their relatives and friends. In their eyes to give the average
Chinese the human rights, freedoms, and the right to vote is like raising a
giant scourge.
In
the past thirty some years, people gradually have seen the true nature of this
dictatorial regime. Today, it is
not just the few people of more than 30 years ago, but the majority of Chinese
including the middle class and bourgeoisie who all realize that the Communist
leadership is not planning to consider any possibility of giving out power
unless forced to by a revolution.
The Communist Party is not planning to move its giant butt that has been
sitting on the head of the Chinese people. These Chinese people include the majority of ordinary communist
members who do not have much distinction from the ordinary Chinese.
So
what possibility do we have under these circumstances? Revolution becomes the only outcome,
regardless whether by a bloodless coup or bloody riots, regardless whether by a
controlled revolution or chaos.
Anyway, the majority of people would not lose that much, but could gain
happiness for future generations.
Even if the government after the revolution is bad, it could not be
worse than the Communist regime that is corrupted to its extreme. Revolution has never been the choice of
the people, but an outcome forced by the authorities.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS111229ChinaWayOut56choices2.mp3
(Written
and recorded on December 29, 2011.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A696-W435
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A696-W435
Release
Date: March 11, 2012
发布日：2012年3月11日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part LVI): More about Reform or Revolution -- Wei
Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之五十六：再谈改革还是革命 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2012/report2012-03/WeiJS120311ChinaWayOut56choices2A696-W435.htm
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《中国的出路》之五十六：再谈改革还是革命
-- 魏京生
这个岁末很热闹。外国人关心的是朝鲜独裁者金正日去世，东亚局势扑朔迷离。中国人关心的是小偶像韩寒突发奇论，让粉丝们大跌眼镜。咱们就从中国人关心的事务谈起吧。
韩寒过去没引起我太多的注意。这是因为他谈论的大多是一些琐碎的事情。而且，他给我的印象是哗众取宠，成为青少年偶像很正常，不值得褒贬。就像他自己说得那样：即使民主成功了，他会掉转枪口成为反向墙头草。总之，他会永远靠发表逆潮流而又无害的言论维持他的粉丝数量。这在正常社会里是大多数明星们的常规策略，倒也无可厚非。
可是，他最近突然开始谈大话题了，而且连发三篇，引起了网民们的热烈争吵。我赶紧浏览了一下，发现他谈的都是老调子。而且，那是中共通过御用文人宣传了很多年的老调子，也没有了耸人听闻的风格。那么，为什么会引起大家的热烈议论呢?
我觉得有两点值得注意。
首先是他的角色转换，让他的很多粉丝们痛不欲生，有上当受骗的感觉。一般的文学青年们都喜欢从风花雪月开始闯入文坛。这虽然安全可是不太容易。在大家都不敢越雷池一步的环境下，风花雪月成了独木桥。于是哗众取宠，说一些逆潮流的话就成了捷径。但是分寸不好掌握，说深了进监狱，说浅了没效果。还是只有少数人能过这个独木桥。
韩寒无疑是其中的佼佼者。以一个在现代人眼里没文化的中学生，能够在文坛里引起轰动而又不让自己进监狱，其才华不在于思想也不在于文采，而在于眼光。这就是善于找到鸡蛋上的缝：既能叮到缝里的臭鸡蛋，又让中宣部和网络警察们无从下手。这种机警和眼光不是常人所能望其项背。虽说还不到才不世出的地步，但也是当代炉火纯青的少数了。
而且韩寒很有自知之明，知道急流勇退。中宣部和网警们一时难以下手，不等于永远难以下手。而网民们的期望值很高，一不小心就说突露了。与其撞了南墙再回头，不如见好就收。赚够了钱就回家过舒坦日子，不失为古代君子的良策。没本事大隐隐于朝，小隐隐于市也是个很好的选择。
无奈，红朝不比古代，共产党有挖地三尺搞阶级斗争的传统。在韩寒之前，已经有很多被成功做了工作以后转变角色的先例，怎么会让你一个小青年功成身退保持良好形象呢？你不是有豪宅汽车存款吗？你不是有娇妻爱女吗？只要你不够无情，就是有缝的鸡蛋。能过此关的人不那么多。韩寒有他的难言之隐。这件事情，后进的年轻人一定要注意，不要心存侥幸。
其次值得关注的就是这次的热烈讨论。其主题仍然是革命还是改良。共产党希望用一批被改造的文人引导舆论，达到共产党希望的状况。可是小韩同志是个聪明人。他不愿被别人引导，而喜欢引导别人。结论虽然是共产党的老生常谈，题目却是中国当前最敏感的话题。而且他争取到一个不被封网删帖的机会，正好再一次风靡网络顺便给自己的书做广告，何乐而不为？
网民们果然不出所料。借着大肆攻击小韩同学的机会，他们大大抒发了自己的感情。几乎是舆论一律地倾向于民主革命。这几乎是一次民主和革命的民意测验。这可是让中宣部大出意料之外，赔了夫人又折兵。本来他们还以为能够上网的中产阶级们会像小韩同学说得那样，心有不满但也害怕革命，因为害怕失去已有的老婆孩子热炕头。但这次的民意测验证明了，就是中产阶级的大多数，也已经忍无可忍。已经到了考虑生存问题的时候了，到了考虑改朝换代的时候了。
如今共产党里也有这么一批人，看到了这个现实。他们不再把希望寄托在欺骗和镇压的两手都要硬的策略上。他们或者出于父辈年轻时的理想，不忍心看着贪官污吏们欺压剥削老百姓；或者仅仅是出于不想被革命后血腥报复的自保心理。不管出于什么目的，他们也在不计风险地大声疾呼：除了民主这条路，中国没有别的出路了。
可是他们在共产党里不占多数，和平改良的希望几乎没有。中共领导层被牢牢地掌握在专政派的手里。他们只是在争论做什么让步能够保住共产党的一党专政，却根本不考虑多党民主制，根本不打算向民主的方向改革。就算他们大喊大叫地改革了，也不过是像清朝末年一样，改出一个皇亲国戚们的议会。给老百姓人权自由和选举权，在他们看来就是洪水猛兽。
三十多年来，人们逐渐看清了中共专政派的本性。如今，不再是三十年前的少数人，而是算上中产小资在内的大多数人都看清楚了：除了被革命，中共领导层不打算考虑任何其它让权的可能，不打算挪开他们压在全国人民身上的大屁股。这个全国人民，也包括大多数和老百姓没有区别的普通共产党人。
在这个形势下还有什么可能性呢？只有革命。无论是不流血的政变还是流血的暴动，无论是颜色革命还是天下大乱。反正大多数老百姓失去的不多，得到的却是子孙后代的幸福。即使革命后的政府再糟糕，也不会比贪污腐败登峰造极的共产党更糟糕了。革命从来就不是老百姓的选择，而是当权者们逼出来的。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2011/WeiJS111229ChinaWayOut56choices2.mp3
（撰写并录音于2011年12月29日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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