Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A698-W437
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A698-W437
Release
Date: March 18, 2012
发布日：2012年3月18日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part LVIII): Reform of Political System in China -- Wei
Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之五十八：政治体制改革 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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The
Way Out for China (Part LVIII): Reform of Political System in China
--
Wei Jingsheng
The
hot topic in recent months has been the reform of the political system in
China. Well-known media have been
busy on this topic for a while. It
is not a monologue by Premier Wen Jiabao anymore. What really is this reform of the political system after
all? This is worth everyone's
attention.
As
a matter of fact, this topic has been discussed within the Communist Party for
many years. The discussion in the
past several years has only returned back to the Zhao Ziyang era. Although there are many factions, there
are mainly two. One faction is the
inner-party reformists represented by Yu Keping, an employed writer for Hu
Jintao; the other is the new democracy faction, which is represented by Liu
Yuan and Zhang Musheng.
Yu
Keping's article "Democracy Is a Good Thing," has been published for
several years already. The core of
his theory is that the Communist Party shall make its own reforms and one must
wait for the Communist Party itself to take an initiative to reform from top
down. Otherwise, he concluded
there would be chaos, widespread poverty, a return to the era of warlords, etc. That is a theory used to scare ordinary
people.
This
set has been criticized by many for several years to the degree that there is
not much more to do. In
particular, not long ago, the jasmine revolution sweeping the Arab world in
North Africa completely negated this so-called theory. That revolution illustrates a simple
truth: in comparison to the pain and loss to society by revolution, the pain
and loss due to long-term tyranny is more unbearable.
More
importantly, this top to down reform simply does not have any theoretical
legitimacy under the premise of rule by the modern, bureaucratic capitalist
interest groups. Its premise is
wrong. Think of that: is it
possible to have a few people who grasped the power and benefited from it to
consciously take the initiative to abandon their interests? Do they have such noble sentiment? The premise is non-existent, and simply
used by those people in power to fool the common people. And the skill of fooling was not even
very tricky.
Thus
there have been some smarter things introduced. This was the theory of the New Democracy introduced last
year. The core theory of this
faction is the so-called theory of Mao Zedong that was used to fool people more
that sixty years ago, namely "let me be a dictator first, then I will
implement democracy for you".
This is the pseudo-scientific theory of Marxism's "let us have
dictatorship first, then democracy".
Although
this modernized version of New Democracy theory appeared to be more complex in
its expression than Hu Jintao's "democracy under the leadership of the
Communist Party", its essence is still the leadership under the Communist
Party. It is still hoping that the
right to initiate reform will be controlled in the hands of the
bureaucrat-capitalist class. It is
still a theory to fool the people which has an absurd premise and is impossible
to achieve.
However,
to say this is the theory of the fourth generation successors of the Communist
regime who want to seize power, it is quite like. There is a saying that the possibility of an outbreak of a
major crisis in the Chinese society could happen anytime now, which is forcing
the fourth generation successors to take over the difficult problems before
they happen. That theory of
"pass on the crisis" as reported by the domestic media inside China,
is a direct manifestation of the mentality of the fourth generation of the
Communist regime, as well as the theoretical base for them to force the current
leadership to give out power in advance.
In
accordance with the normal human state of mind, after the successors and time
of power transfer are determined, there will be a trend for the others to seek
refuge with the new leadership one after another. For the new generation of leadership, it is an essential
self-protection measure to avoid the outgoing leaders being irresponsible. This is different from a family
inheritance, and more like the succession of leadership of a company: in order
to avoid the outgoing CEO giving himself huge bonus while bankrupting the company,
the board of directors and the new CEO must guard against their own people as
thieves. However, their concept of
governance may not be fundamentally different.
It
seems those people who are holding the hope of political reform on the
shoulders of the fourth generation of the Communist regime will be disappointed
for sure. It seems that China's
political reform has no hope. It
seems that huge chaos in China is inevitable. This is a fact.
For the same reason that Hu Jintao had to accept the new reform of the
political system, they also have to accept the fact that without reform they
will be destroyed. The reason that
the high-level leadership within the Communist Party has to accept the new plan
of political reform is that their own research has found out that the people's
mood of rebellion is getting stronger and stronger. Instead of being left without burial after the rebellion, it
would be better of to take the initiative to reform and save their own
lives. This is the real motive for
the reformers within the Communist Party.
With
sensible motives, then there is still the hope for reform. However, this kind of reform shall not
be the reform of the New Democracy fraction and shall not be the reform under
the Communist leadership of from top to bottom. It must be and can only be a revolution initiated by the
people from bottom to top. With a
true democracy that is accepted from the county and township level upward, then
can we lead the society towards fairness and stability gradually.
After
the establishment of democracy at the grassroots level, then there is the
possibility of gradually raising the level of democracy until it reaches
national level. Only when the
people gradually learned to be responsible for their own behavior, then it is
possible to have true democracy.
People should not be responsible for things that do not belong to them;
the officials should not be responsible for things that do not belong to them
either. Only when the people are
able to supervise with their sharp eyes, then the irresponsible and corrupt
issues of the government and officials could be solved with better
solutions. To rely on the
bureaucratic class supervising itself is like thieves trying to catch the
thieves. To the best it would
resolve the infighting between the thieves.
We
should know, the relationship between autocracy and democracy is not a
relationship between a parent and child, but the relationship between different
species. It cannot rely on
incremental changes within the system, just as donkey lips will not be able to
evolve into a horse's mouth. Any
transformations between democracy and autocracy are fundamental and
revolutionary changes. Now, the
Chinese people have already clearly understood this simple truth.
Three
or four years ago, these so-called "independent intellectuals" fed by
the Communist Party were praising the song of "say farewell to the
revolution." At that time,
most of the middle class in China simplemindedly followed that wave. However, now, as soon as the so-called
opinion leaders start their talk of "China cannot have a revolution"
in their bashful tones, they meet immediate attacks to the degree that everyone
else condemns them. Such strong
opinion is the social base for the wise leaders within the Communist Party to
initiate a peaceful revolution. A
peaceful transition in China has not come to the moment that is totally
hopeless.
However,
this possibility can only get an opportunity of implementation when the
possibility of violent revolution is getting stronger and stronger. Without the premise of violent
revolution, the bureaucrat-capitalist class will not accept the fundamental
transformation of the social system in any case. This is the essential way out for China.
To
be able to initiate this transition and to be successful at the end, we must
rely on this kind of awakening of the masses.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2012/WeiJS120301ChinaWayOut58politicalreform.mp3
(Written
on February 29 and recorded on March 1, 2012. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A698-W437
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A698-W437
Release
Date: March 18, 2012
发布日：2012年3月18日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part LVIII): Reform of Political System in China -- Wei
Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之五十八：政治体制改革 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2012/report2012-03/WeiJS120318ChinaWayOut58politicalreformA698-W437.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
《中国的出路》之五十八：政治体制改革
-- 魏京生
最近几个月的热门话题，是政治体制改革。著名媒体们可是热闹了一阵子，已经不是温家宝唱独角戏的时候了。这个政治体制改革到底是什么东西呢？这值得大家关注。
实际上这个话题在中共内部已经谈论了很多年了。最近几年的议论，不过是回到了赵紫阳时代而已。虽然派别很多，综其大概不过是两派。一个是以胡锦涛的御用文人俞可平为代表的党内改革派，一个是以刘源、张木生为代表的新民主主义派。
俞可平的《民主是个好东西》发表已经好几年了。其理论核心就是要共产党自己改革，也只能等待共产党自己从上到下的主动改革。否则就要天下大乱，民不聊生，再次回到军阀混战的年代等等。都是些吓唬老百姓的理论。
这一套已经被大家批评了好几年，可以说是体无完肤了。特别是前一段时间席卷北非阿拉伯世界的茉莉花革命，彻底否定了这种吓唬老百姓的所谓的理论。它说明了一个简单的道理：和革命给社会所带来的痛苦和损失比较，暴政所带来的长期痛苦和损失更加难以忍受。
更重要的是这种从上至下的改革，在现代的、官僚资产阶级利益集团执政的前提下根本就没有理论上的合理性。它的前提就是错误的。试想：少数人掌握了政权并且从中获得利益。让他们自觉地、主动地放弃利益，可能吗？他们有那么高尚的情操吗？从前提上就是子虚乌有的东西，根本就是当权者拿来糊弄老百姓的东西。而且还不是很高明的骗术。
于是就有了更高明一些的东西出台。这就是去年才出台的新民主主义论。这一派的理论核心，是六十多年前毛泽东用来忽悠中国人民的先让我独裁，再给你们实行民主的所谓理论。这也就是马克思主义的先专政、后民主的伪科学理论。
现代化之后的新民主主义论，虽然在表述上比胡锦涛的党领导下的民主复杂了许多，其实质仍然是党的领导。它仍然是希望把变革的主导权掌握在官僚资产阶级的手中。也仍然是在前提上就荒谬的，不可能实现的一大忽悠。
要说这是第四代接班人想要抢班夺权的理论，倒是很像。一种说法是：现在中国社会随时有暴发大的危机的可能性，迫使第四代接班人不能等到危机爆发时候接手难题。国内媒体报道的“击鼓传花”论，就是第四代心态的直接表现，也是他们逼迫现在的领导集团提前交班的理论根据。
按照正常的人类心态来分析，在接班人和时间确定下来之后，人们纷纷投靠新的领导是大势所趋。新一代领导避免即将下台的人不负责任、破罐子破摔，也是必不可少的自保措施。这和家庭的继承不一样，有点像公司的继承：为避免卸任的总裁掏空公司以自肥，董事会和接任的总裁必须像防贼一样地防着自己人。但是他们的执政理念未必有什么根本的不同。
看来对中共第四代进行政治体制改革抱有的希望的人们一定会失望了。看来中国的政治体制改革没希望了。看来天下大乱已经不可避免了。事实如此。从胡锦涛不得不接受新的政治体制改革的原因来看，他们也不得不接受不改革就要灭亡的事实。之所以党内高层不得不接受政改新方案，正是他们自己的调研发现老百姓造反的情绪越来越浓。与其等造反之后死无葬身之地，还不如主动改革还能保住身家性命。这才是共产党内改革派的真正动机。
既然有了明智的动机，就还有改革的希望。但是这种改革决不是新民主主义派的改革，决不是在党的领导下自上而下的改革。而必须是，也只能是，发动人民群众自下而上的革命。从县乡一级自下而上接受的真正的民主，才能够使社会逐渐走向公平和稳定。
基层民主建立之后，才有可能逐步上升到国家一级的民主化。只有在人民逐渐学会对自己负责之后，才有可能有真正的民主。人民不可能对不属于自己的东西负责，官员也不可能对不属于自己的东西负责。只有当人民用雪亮的眼睛监督的时候，政府和官员的不负责任和腐败的问题才能够有比较好的解决方案。靠官僚阶级自己监督自己，就好像是贼喊捉贼，最多也只能解决贼和贼之间的内斗问题。
要知道，专制和民主之间不是父子关系，而是不同的物种之间的关系。这不可能靠本系统内部渐进的改革实现，就像驴唇不可能进化出马嘴一样。任何民主和专制之间的转变，都是革命性的、根本性质的转变。现在的中国人已经看清楚了这个简单的道理。
三、四年以前，共产党豢养的独知们高唱“告别革命”的时候，大多数中产阶级还傻呵呵的跟着起哄。而现在，所谓意见领袖只要羞羞答答地谈论不要革命，就立刻遭到群起而攻之，也差不多就到了人人得而诛之的水平了。这种强大的民意，就是支持党内明智的领袖开始和平革命的社会基础。和平的转型，还没到完全没有希望的时机。
但是这种可能性，只能是在暴力革命越来越浓的前提下才有机会实施。如果没有暴力革命的前提，官僚资产阶级无论如何也不会接受社会制度的根本转型。这就是中国的根本的出路。
转型是否能够启动，以及最后是否能够成功，靠的就是这种人民群众的觉醒。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2012/WeiJS120301ChinaWayOut58politicalreform.mp3
（撰写于2012年2月29日，录音于2012年3月1日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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