Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A707-W444
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A707-W444
Release
Date: May 6, 2012
发布日：2012年5月6日
Topic:
The Political Consequences of the Chen Guangcheng Affair -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：陈光诚事件的政治后果 -- 魏京生
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The
Political Consequences of the Chen Guangcheng Affair
--
Wei Jingsheng
Chen
Guangcheng is a blind human rights lawyer. Despite his physical handicap, his will is not
handicapped. He has defended his
hometown people who were persecuted.
Therefore, he was persecuted by the local officials, who sent him to
jail for four years. After he
finished his four years of prison and returned home, he continued to defend his
villagers. The activity affected
the interests of the local tyrants and evil gentry and continued making him
subject to persecution, including illegal surveillance, house arrest, beating
and cursing and doing their utmost.
This persecution is a common phenomenon in the villages in China.
The
social basis of the Chinese Communist Party in the rural areas is the riffraff
and the evil gentry. Conniving
with their violation of law and disciplines is in the basic national policy of
the Communist regime in its effort stabilize the rural order. As a typical case, Chen Guangcheng received
worldwide attention.
Less
than two weeks ago, with the help of friends Mr. Chen Guangcheng escaped from
his house arrest by the local gentry and riffraff. Even more surprising is that he actually fled into the U.S.
embassy in Beijing, resulting in big sensational news throughout the
world. For more than one week now
Chen Guangcheng's affair has been going back and forth repeatedly, resulting in
increasing attention from public opinion around the world. This attention makes both the Chinese
government and the U.S. government very embarrassed, as well as a creating a
dilemma to solve.
From
the point of view of U.S. government, the time and place of the affair was not
good -- it began a few days before the Sino-US economic and strategic talks held
in Beijing. A fugitive staying
inside the U.S. Embassy in Beijing who causes a headache for the Chinese
government will certainly affect the atmosphere of the talks. The news of this fugitive was so
prominent, even to the point of disrupting the priority of the talks, that both
parties were eager to get Chen Guangcheng out of the embassy.
The
Chinese government closely observes American's words and expressions and knows
that Americans are not strong enough.
So in private, they followed the Americans' current of thoughts and
promised conditions that were impossible to carry out. They swindled Chen out of embassy first
to be a hostage in the hands of the Chinese government, and then positioned
themselves on a tough stance. In
the eyes of the patriotic young cynics in China, the Chinese government gained
a score.
However,
after he was handed over to the Communist regime Chen Guangcheng, who had a
little illusion towards the Chinese government, started to realize how serious
the situation was. He put forward
new demands and expressed his wish to leave China in an effort to avoid
persecution against his whole family.
This change discounted the score that the Communists government had just
gained. The patriotic young cynics
also felt very humiliated.
More
importantly, is that when Chen Guangcheng was handed back to China he became a
hot potato for the Chinese Government.
It is not feasible to continue the persecution against him. With such attention from the
International community, if Chen is still persecuted under the guarantee of the
U.S. government, then it inevitably will lead to serious diplomatic disputes,
and will also affect Sino-US relations as well as the interests of big
capital. So Chen should not be
persecuted more.
But
stopping the persecution against Chen Guangcheng does not work either. It would be an encouragement to the
rural people to rebel, which would mean the restriction of the local riffraff
and evil gentry. How could the
social foundation of the Communist Party in the rural areas suppress the people
then? The local parties would not
agree, their representatives in the Communist leadership would not agree, and
thus the Communist Party could not agree either.
For
the Communist regime, neither continuing the persecution nor stopping the
persecution would be good. So the
Communist regime ran into a dilemma if Chen Guangcheng stays in China. Therefore, they immediately increased
the pressure on Chen's family so as to force him to flee to the U.S. Is not that a good idea to toss this
hot potato to the Americans?
But
tossing Chen out of China does not work either. The patriotic youth cynics would not agree to it, their
representatives within the Communist Party leadership would not agree, and the
ongoing internal fight within the Communist Party would not agree. Whoever makes this decision would be
fiercely attacked; no one is willing to be responsible. Diplomats of course want to get rid of
this responsibility. After all,
domestic affairs are not their responsibility. But they have no decision power.
As
the internal struggle within the Communist Party reaches a white hot stage due
to the Bo Xilai incident, who has the audacity to make this decision? It can only be the successors in
waiting who do not have to be responsible for now. If they think that their own succession status is
unshakable, then making the decision to let Chen go abroad will let them
accumulate their reputation as being good in dealing with the crisis. Such will bring benefit in their future
both domestically and in foreign affairs.
Chen
Guangcheng moving in exile to the U.S. also has very significant impact on
American politics, no less than the impact on Chinese politics. At the time, the US decision that
prompted Chen to walk out of the U.S. Embassy was a shortsighted error. The US administration cared about it
affects the first step of the chess which was the US-China strategic and
economic talks coming up in a few days, without accounting for the political
consequences of Chen remaining persecuted in China.
This
effect will affect the re-election of President Obama for sure. Republican politicians have been using
the Chen Guangcheng affair to set off a wave of attacks on President Obama. Even the Democratic voters also cannot
tolerate that political dissidents who flee into the U.S. Embassy to be sent
back to an autocratic government for persecution. For sure this will increase the difficulty for the
presidential re-election. From
this perspective, Chen is saving Obama's presidency by making the decision to
exile in the United States.
Even
so, Chen's change of heart could be tantamount to exposing a wrong decision
resulting from eagerness for quick success by the US administration. The administration still will be
criticized and will not be able to restore all losses. Further, things will continue to
develop. If only Chen comes to
exile, his wife and children and old mother will continue to be
persecuted. If his wife and
children and old mother come out, his relatives and those people who helped him
will continue to be persecuted.
This persecution will be the concession that the Communist Party makes
to its social base. They must have
some targets of persecution in the way of "killing the chickens to scare
the monkeys". It is their
political need.
The
media and the Republican politicians will not miss the hot spots of these
follow-ups. For more than three
years now, the Chinese government has become accustomed to problematic thinking
due to the Obama adminstration's policy of not caring about human rights. The Chinese regime believes that the
Obama administration is a weak government. They even believe that China's economic strength has
weakened the U.S. Bullying the
United States for a gain in China's domestic politics has been a fashionable
activity for different factions of politicians of the Chinese Communist Party.
Based
on the above analysis, it can be expected that the Chen Guangcheng affair will
continue to ferment. It will
continue to have a profound impact on the domestic affairs in both the USA and
China, as well as on bilateral relations between China and the United
States. This affair will not be in
the control of Chen Guangcheng, nor that of the two governments.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2012/WeiJS120504onChenGCcontinues.mp3
(Written
and recorded on May 4, 2012.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A707-W444
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A707-W444
Release
Date: May 6, 2012
发布日：2012年5月6日
Topic:
The Political Consequences of the Chen Guangcheng Affair -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：陈光诚事件的政治后果 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2012/report2012-05/WeiJS120506onChenGCcontinuesA707-W444.htm
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陈光诚事件的政治后果
-- 魏京生
陈光诚是一名盲人维权律师。他身残志不残，为家乡那些受迫害的人打官司。因此而被当地的土豪劣绅迫害，送进监狱四年有余。蹲完四年监狱后回到家乡，他仍然继续为乡亲们打官司。这就影响了当地土豪劣绅的利益，也就必然受到他们的迫害，其中包括非法监视、软禁、殴打、咒骂等等无所不用其极。这在中国的乡村是普遍现象。
中共在农村的社会基础就是这些地痞流氓和土豪劣绅。纵容他们违法乱纪，是中共稳定农村秩序的基本国策。而陈光诚案件作为典型，受到了全世界的关注。
不到两个星期前，陈光诚先生在友人的帮助下，逃出了当地土豪劣绅的软禁。更让人惊奇的是，他居然逃进了北京的美国大使馆。这就造成了一个轰动世界的大新闻。一个多星期来，陈光诚事件反反复复，牵动着全世界的舆论。这让中国政府和美国政府都十分尴尬，进退维谷。
从美国政府的角度看，事件发生的时间地点不好，几天后要在北京召开中美经济与战略会谈。大使馆里住着一位让中国政府头疼的人，肯定影响会谈的气氛。新闻又做得如此大，甚至可能打乱会谈的内容，所以他们急于把陈光诚送出大使馆。
中国政府察言观色，知道美国人硬不起来。就私下里顺水推舟，答应了他们不可能执行的条件。先把人骗出来再说。人质掌握在中国政府的手里后，再摆出一幅强硬的姿态。这在爱国主义愤青们眼里，就得了一分。
可是，对中共还有一丝幻想的陈光诚，被交到中共手里之后，才醒悟到事态的严重性。他提出了新的要求，希望离开中国，避免中共对他全家的迫害。这就把中共刚得到的一分，打了个折扣。爱国主义愤青们也会觉得这太丢脸了。
更重要的是陈光诚交到中国手里，就成了中国政府的烫手山芋。继续对他进行迫害不行。国际社会如此关注的人，在美国政府的保证下继续受迫害。必然引起严重的外交纠纷，并且会影响到中美关系以及大资本的利益。所以不能进一步迫害。
但不对陈光诚进行迫害也不行。这等于是在鼓励农村的老百姓造反，等于是在压制乡村的土豪劣绅。这些中共在农村的社会基础，如何镇压那些受他们剥削压迫的老百姓呢？土豪劣绅们不答应，他们在中共领导层的代表们不答应，中国共产党也就不会答应。
迫害不行，不迫害也不行，所以陈光诚留在中国，让中共左右为难。所以他们立刻就加重了对陈光诚一家的压力，逼迫他出走美国。把这个烫手的山芋扔给美国佬，何乐而不为？
可是扔出去也不行。爱国主义愤青们不答应；他们在中共领导层的代表们不答应；正在进行的党内斗争不答应。谁做了这个决策谁就会受到强烈的攻击，没人愿意为此负责任。外交系的人当然希望推掉这个责任。国内的事务也确实不是他们的责任。可是他们没有决定权。
在现在党内斗争因为薄熙来案件已经白热化的形势下，谁有魄力做这个决定呢？只有现在不用负责，而将来很快就会上台的接班人。如果他们认为自己的接班地位已经不可动摇，作出让陈光诚出国的决定，会给他们积累一个善于处理危机的信誉。这对他们将来的内政外交都会带来好处。
陈光诚是否能够流亡美国，对美国政治的影响也十分重大，不亚于对中国政治的影响。当时，美国当局作出了促使陈光诚走出美国大使馆的决定，就犯了一个短视的错误。她只看到了影响几天后战略会谈的第一步棋，却没看到陈光诚留在中国受迫害的政治后果。
这个效果绝对会影响到奥巴马总统竞选连任。共和党的政治家们，已经在利用陈光诚事件，掀起了攻击奥巴马总统的风潮。就是民主党的选民，也不能容忍逃进美国大使馆的政治异议人士，被送给专制政府受迫害。总统竞选连任肯定会增加很大难度。从这个角度看，陈光诚作出流亡美国的决定，是救了奥巴马。
虽然如此，但陈光诚改变决定就等于是揭发了美国当局急功近利的错误决定。民主党政府仍然要被批评，仍然不能挽回所有的损失，而且事情还会继续发展。陈光诚走了，他的妻子儿女和老母亲还会受迫害。他的妻子儿女和老母亲也出来了，他的亲戚和帮助过他的人还会继续受到迫害。这是中共必须向它的社会基础作出的让步。他们必须有一些迫害的目标来杀鸡吓猴。这是他们的政治需要。
媒体和共和党的政治家们不会放过这些后续的热点。中国政府三年多来在奥巴马政府不关心人权的政策下，已经被惯出了毛病。他们认定奥巴马政府是个软弱的政府；
甚至认为中国的经济实力已经使美国变成了软弱的美国。欺负美国而在中国国内政治中获得好处，是中共各派政客们都乐此不疲的时髦活动。
综合以上的分析，可以预计，陈光诚事件将继续发酵。继续对中美两国的国内事务和两国的关系产生深远的影响。这不是陈光诚本人能够左右的，也不是两国政府能够左右的。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2012/WeiJS120504onChenGCcontinues.mp3
（撰写并录音于2012年5月4日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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