Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A734-W461
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A734-W461
Release
Date: September 22, 2012
发布日：2012年9月22日
Topic:
The Diaoyu Islands Dispute -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：钓鱼岛争议 -- 魏京生
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Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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The
Diaoyu Islands Dispute
-- Wei Jingsheng
It
has been a real buzz since September.
First, Xi Jinping disappeared.
Later, it was the issue of the Diaoyu Islands (also called the Senkaku
Islands in Japan, Tiaoyutai Islands in Taiwan, and the Pinnacle Islands.). There have been all sorts of violence
and vandalism except killings regarding the Diaoyu Islands in China. Some angry
youth yelled murderous slogans, and even the Communist Party-controlled media
threatened to drop nuclear weapons.
This issue has been there for years, but why is there so much trouble
now?
One
news medium in the USA did have the vision to directly point out that the new
trouble was due to domestic political needs in both China and Japan. Japan is facing a general election. In the past few years, on average Japan
has changed to a new prime minister every year. As a result, the political situation is very unstable and
the economy has been affected seriously.
It is understandable that the incumbent Prime Minister hopes for an
election victory to stabilize the political situation, which is very important
for both Japan's political and people's interests.
To
win the election it is necessary to gather public will. Under the premise that the different
political parties and groups do not present platforms able to distinguish the
opponent, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's campaign team thought of the Diaoyu
Islands issue. This issue has been
speculated high and hotly by the political right wing in Japan. Bringing it forward would be patriotic
and politically correct. Thus,
grabbing the topic in their own hands for their own favor would be easy. The predecessors of the Prime Minister
had already played this topic with lucrative outcomes and no problems. Thus, the latest politicians boldly
came up with a bigger move calling for nationalization of the islands. Their plan was to use the country's
money to try to buy the islands from the so-called private owners, to realize
this nationalization.
Unfortunately,
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's luck is not good enough, at least not as good
as his predecessors'. He also
admitted an error of judgment on the situation. This time, the Chinese Communist regime, that was always
weak to the outside world, actually reacted surprisingly strongly. Not only were there angry youth that
"rebelled" under the decree and began doing all sorts of violence and
vandalism under the command of the police and officials; even the official
reaction from the Communist government was unusual, to the degree that it even
directly suggested to solve the issue with nuclear weapons. To the Japanese people who are the only
ones who have suffered through the hazards of nuclear weapons, this threat is a
great psychological pressure.
Why
has the Communist regime been extremely low-key before, but now is overreacting? It is very unusual. Both Mao Zedong (the head of the
People's Republic of China) and Chiang Kai-shek (the head of the Republic of
China) did not accept these islands as the outcome of World War II. Later, the Communist leader Deng
Xiaoping almost directly gave up the rights of the dispute. He unilaterally claimed to shelve the
dispute, which was actually a face-saving method of abandonment. It was like a street hooligan who could
not win over his opponent, so he retreats while still making some tough claims,
such as "wait for me, do not leave". That was just a face-saving withdrawal.
Now,
suddenly the Communist regime plays tough and seems ready to attack. Why so? Unlike Yoshihiko Noda, Xi Jinping does not need to wait for
enough votes to ascend the throne.
Why would he uncharacteristically attack? Western media and scholars do not understand it. It is because they do not understand
the characteristics of China's authoritarian politics, and thus do not
understand why the status-defined Xi Jinping would take such a big risk.
Among
the first four generations of Chinese Communist leaders, Mao Zedong and Deng
Xiaoping were strong leaders while Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao were vulnerable
leaders. Mao Zedong had his
authority established during the war years (before the establishment of the
People's Republic of China). Deng
Xiaoping did not have that kind of authority, so his first action when he came
to power was to initiate a war (against Vietnam), in order to establish his own
authority and to strengthen his position.
Thus, Deng was able to rule the country with an iron-fist and become a
real dictator. Jiang Zemin and Hu
Jintao did not have war. They were
unable to establish enough authority in the Communist system where the military
power is the regime, and thus they became vulnerable leaders.
Described
by the Hong Kong media as a mediocre leader, Xi Jinping had no choice but to
fight a war, modeled on the examples of his predecessors. Such action would establish Xi's
authority within the military and within the Communist Party, allowing him to
become a dictator in the true sense, get rid of the so-called collective
responsibility, and to do the things he wants to do. As he was getting ready to sleep, Yoshihiko Noda delivered
Xi a suitable pillow.
But
is this pillow really appropriate?
Not necessarily. Does Xi
Jinping really want a war? If this
is true, Japan would not be Vietnam, and the United States would not be the
Soviet Union. Even for Deng
Xiaoping back then, as soon as the Soviet Union threatened, Deng ran backward
in a panic and eventually ceded a large territory to Vietnam. Fortunately, at that time Deng was able
to boast himself while blocking the true information, and so reached his goal
of establishing authority over the Chinese people.
Relatively
speaking, Japan today is far more powerful than Vietnam was back then. The US-Japan Security Treaty is not
comparable to the random oral alliance in between the Soviet Union and Vietnam. Before the War starts, we can already
predict the results. How to finish
it then would be a big problem. So
although on the surface the Chinese communist government appears to be
menacing, claiming that it has sent more than a dozen official boats and naval
ships to the islands, in reality, these ships are just wondering around in
international waters -- they are just probing and testing, without the guts to
really initiate a war.
Japan
is not the Philippines. It is not
a country that would soften and admit defeat when it is threatened. If the Chinese Communists do not stop
before going too far and continue this deadlock, they may not have a good
conclusion from overly inciting patriotism. When both sides hold their own opinions, without compromise
and without reason, then each can only rely on actual strength. By then, there is only one way -- that
is the Communist regime admits defeat and be disgraced. Then, Xi Jinping will have to step down. Then the Communist Party will be like a
dragon without its head, leading to a vicious struggle for power resulting in
chaos. This may not necessarily be
bad result.
Through
the June 4 Massacre in 1989, Deng Xiaoping was able to insure the Communist
regime for 20 more years. Xi
Jinping wants to beat up Japan to insure the Communist regime for another 20
years. Unfortunately, misjudging
the situation would not only result in disaster for the Chinese, but also bring
negative impact to the peace in East Asia and the world. Xi could be condemned in history like
Deng Xiaoping.
In
the past, the Chinese Communist Party gave up sovereignty and jurisdiction, and
later it gave up the right to dispute these islands. Now, the most it may do is re-open the dispute and sit down
for negotiation. Shelving disputes
will not get the issues solved by passing them to the next generation. Only through argument on the basis of
reason could the issue be resolved.
The fact that Japan has been continuously hyping the Diaoyu Islands
issue itself illustrates that it knows that this is a controversial issue. Even if this issue cannot be solved
now, it will be solved eventually.
Using
international disputes as a political operation to resolve domestic problems
and even incite ethnic chauvinism mood is an extremely dangerous practice. There were many wars that started from
such actions. From the point of
avoiding people's loss of lives and property in these countries, war is always
a bad thing, not a good thing.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2012/WeiJS120921onDiaoyuIslands.mp3
(Written
on September 20 and recorded on September 21, 2012. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A734-W461
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A734-W461
Release
Date: September 22, 2012
发布日：2012年9月22日
Topic:
The Diaoyu Islands Dispute -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：钓鱼岛争议 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2012/report2012-09/WeiJS120922onDiaoyuIslandsA734-W461.htm
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钓鱼岛争议
-- 魏京生
进入九月份以来真热闹。先是习近平玩失踪；后是钓鱼岛闹起了打砸抢烧，就差一个杀字了。不过确实也有愤怒的青年们打出了杀气腾腾的口号，甚至还有党控媒体扬言要扔核武器。钓鱼岛的问题不是一年两年了，闹这么大动静是什么原因呢？
有一家美国的媒体比较有眼光，直接指出这是中日两国国内政治的需要。挑起事端的日本面临着大选。几年来日本平均每年换一个总理大臣。这让政局十分不稳，经济也受到严重的影响。现任的总理大臣或者说首相希望选举获胜，稳定政局无可非议。这对日本政局和国民利益都很重要。
想要选举胜利就要聚拢民意。在各党各派都没有什么新鲜货色可以区别于对手的前提下，野田佳彦的助选班子想到了被右派炒作得很火的钓鱼岛问题。反正是爱国主
义，政治正确。把话题抢在自己手里玩几把，非常容易。他的前几任也玩过钓鱼岛的话题，获利颇丰而且没出什么问题。所以就大胆地搞出一些大动作，叫做国有化。用国家的钱从所谓的岛主手里买下了钓鱼岛，算是对钓鱼岛实现了国有化。
遗憾的是他的运气不够好，至少不如他的前几任那么好。他自己也承认对形势判断错误。这一次一向对外软弱可欺的中共政权，居然对此作出了意外强烈的反应。不仅有奉旨造反的愤青在警察和官员们的指挥下打砸抢烧；而且官方的反应也不同寻常，甚至直接说要用核武器解决问题。这对唯一遭受过核武器危害的日本人民，是一个极大的心理压力。
为什么中共方面过去极端低调，而现在又过度反应呢？这很反常。毛泽东和蒋介石都不去接受这个二战的成果；而邓小平直接就差不多放弃了争议的权利。他单方面说搁置争议，实际上是一种保护面子放弃的方法。就像街头小流氓打不过人家，一边后退一边还嘴硬。说什么“你给我等着，你别走啊”。那是一种照顾面子撤退的方法。
现在中共突然强硬了，像是要出击了。这是为什么呢？习近平不像野田佳彦，不需要等着争取足够的选票才能上位。他为什么要一反常态主动出击呢？西方的媒体和学者们一下子就不理解了。这是因为他们不理解中国专制政治的特点，所以不懂地位已经稳固的习近平为什么冒这么大的风险。
中共的前四代领导人里，毛泽东和邓小平是强势的领导人；而江泽民和胡锦涛是弱势的领导人。毛泽东是战争年代树立的权威。邓小平没那种权威，所以上台第一件事就是打一场战争。以此树立自己的权威，加强自己的地位。然后就可以铁腕治国，成为真正的独裁者。江泽民和胡锦涛没有打过仗，在军权就是政权的中共体制内就没能够树立足够的权威，所以成为弱势的领导人。
被香港媒体说成是平庸领导人的习近平，只好仿照他的前辈的榜样打一场战争。这才能在军内党内树立自己的权威，才能成为真正意义上的独裁者，才能摆脱所谓的集体负责制，来做他想做的事情。正在他想睡觉的时候，野田佳彦给他送来了一个合适的枕头。
可是这个枕头真的那么合适吗?不见得。你习近平真的准备打着一场战争吗？如果是真的，日本可不是越南，美国也不是苏联。即使当年的邓小平，苏联稍微一威胁，他还不是仓皇窜逃回来了，最终还割给人家一大片的领土。好在那个时候还能封锁消息自吹自擂，在全国人民面前树立权威的目的还是达到了。
而今天的日本，相对来说远比当年的越南强大。美日安保条约也不是当年苏越之间随机的口头联盟可比。战争没开场就可以估算出结果了。到那个时候如何收场，就成了一个大问题了。所以看上去虽然中共政府气势汹汹，声称派了十几艘官船和军舰，实际上也就是在公海上围着钓鱼岛游荡--试探而已，并不敢真的挑起战争。
日本不是菲律宾，不是吓唬一下就能服软认输的国家。如果不像过去那样适可而止，僵持下去倒是煽动爱国主义过分的中共不好收场。双方各持己见，不作妥协，都不讲理那就只能靠实力说话了。那时候只有一条路，就是中共当场认输丢尽面子。然后习近平下台以谢天下。再然后就是中共群龙无首，恶性争权导致天下大乱。这倒也不一定就是坏结果。
邓小平六四大屠杀保了中共二十年；习近平想打败日本再保中共二十年。可惜是错误估计了形势，结果不仅给中国带来灾难，很可能给东亚地区和世界的和平都带来负面的影响，和邓小平一样成为历史的罪人。
既然中共过去就放弃了主权和管辖，后来又放弃了争议权。现在最多也就是争议争议，坐下来谈判。搁置争议，并不能把事情交给后来者解决。只有据理力争，才能够把事情解决掉。日本不断炒作钓鱼岛问题，就说明他们知道那是个有争议的问题。即使现在不能解决，将来也总会解决。
把国际争端当作解决国内问题的政治操作，并为此煽动民族沙文主义情绪，这是一种极端危险的做法。有很多战争就是因此而发生。从避免各国人民生命财产损失的角度出发，战争总是一件坏事，不是什么好事。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2012/WeiJS120921onDiaoyuIslands.mp3
（撰写于2012年9月20日，9月21日录音。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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