Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A744-W470
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A744-W470
Release
Date: January 12, 2013
发布日：2013年1月12日
Topic:
Red-Hot Start for the New Year of 2013 -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：新年开门红 -- 魏京生
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Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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Red-Hot
Start for the New Year of 2013
--
Wei Jingsheng
"Red-hot
start for the New Year" is the way the Chinese congratulate each other for
a good start during the New Year time.
There is another flavor in this sentence for this new year of 2013. It was said that the Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang
group has the will to reform, and indeed started its little tricks to initiate
a reform of the political system.
However, the Communist propaganda department, which represents the
bureaucratic capitalist class in China, immediately gave them a Parthian
shot. The battle is booming into
red-hot now. This is the red-hot
start of this year.
It
started with Liu Yunshan, the head of Propaganda Department who came to power
with the strong support of Jiang Zemin and Li Peng. To slap the face of the Xi and Li group that had consistent
little gestures of reform, Liu Yunshan changed the New Year's Message of the
famous Southern Weekend magazine.
This hands-on action by the Propaganda Minister of the Communist Party
of Guangdong Province received a collective protest by the employees of the
Southern Weekend. This action of
change could also count as a little trick.
But
what followed could not be counted as little tricks anymore, which is also
associated with the New Year's message.
The website of Chinese history magazine Yan Huang Chun Qiu, which
represents opposition opinions within the veteran Communist leaders in Beijing,
also quietly became inaccessible due to its new year's message that tactfully
promoted political reforms. It was
blocked without any explanation, formal notice, or negotiation. This action demonstrates the
determination of the Communist Party to maintain the power and interest of the
privileged bureaucratic capitalists, which would disown anyone. It is indeed the consistent tradition
of the Chinese Communist Party.
Speaking
of "disowning", many people would immediately think of the glorious
deeds of Bo Xilai who just lost his power. During the Cultural Revolution he beat up his biological
father, Bo Yibo, to the degree that he broke three of his father's ribs. Never-the-less, Bo Yibo, who was well
aware of the tradition of the Communists, assigned Bo Xilai to be the successor
of the Bo family. Bo Xilai himself
almost became the successor of the Communist Party. Yet unfortunately, Bo Xilai was not sophisticated enough and
eventually become a victim of the internal struggle within the Communist Party.
Since
the first round of the red-hot start of the new year of 2013 already had such a
gesture, what good drama would follow the play? In private, Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang vowed to lift press
censorship and the ban on opposition parties. Yet, before they initiated it, the Communist veterans already
having the power over news media and propaganda, challenged the authority of
the Party General Secretary and Prime Minister, to "Repulse
Right-Deviationist-Verdict-Reversal".
What
Right-Deviationist-Verdict-Reversal needed repulsion? Back at the time when Deng Xiaoping came to power, the
Right-Deviationist-Verdict-Reversal to be repulsed was an effort trying to
restore the mad Mao Zedong era back to slightly normal under the banner of
restoring constitutional order.
With the popular support of the people of the country, Repulse
Right-Deviationist-Verdict-Reversal was launched officially during the era of
Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang, yet was soon put down by Deng Xiaoping
himself. From the Anti-Spiritual
Pollution Campaign to the June 4 Massacre, Deng Xiaoping accomplished his own
version of "Repulse Right-Deviationist-Verdict-Reversal." Thus the Chinese politics made a full
turn to its origin point and Deng Xiaoping became almost a dictator in a new
generation.
From
Mao Zedong to Deng Xiaoping and then to Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, the core
value that kept passing on in their minds is the one-party dictatorship
regime. Whoever interfered with
that core value would have to step down.
But this basic principle does not comply with the tide of history; does
not meet the desire of the people; and does not conform to the old vows of the
Communist Party. It should have
died long ago. As early as the Mao
Zedong era, it faced the cliff.
But Deng Xiaoping turned around in front of the cliff and thus the
one-party dictatorship escaped unharmed.
During
the Deng Xiaoping era, China was still at the crossroads. So although there was a cliff ahead,
one could still go around it.
However, now China is at the T-junction in front of the cliff. The communists who are not fools know
that it is impossible to continue the direction of the one-party dictatorship
which will for sure to bring them over the cliff.
However,
during the 30 years of the three generations of the Communist leaders Deng
Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, a large amount of inertia has
accumulated. This inertia came
from the bureaucratic capitalist class that is well capitalized, with a vast
network of people, and huge influence.
Now, even if one wants to brake very hard, this vehicle is rushed all
the way to the cliff. What
happened recently with the Chinese history magazine Yan Huang Chun Qiu
is the proof.
The
reformists still fear impairing personal relationships, yet the firm dictators
would disown anyone. The
subordinates dare to make sure their bosses are unable to back down with good
grace. That is because some force
that is really powerful supports these subordinates. What force is that?
It is the several hundred thousands of governmental officials, and their
relatives and cronies -- the several hundred thousands of people who gain their
interests and protect their own families and lives through the power of
dictatorship. For their own
interests and their own families and lives, of course they would disown
anyone. No one would believe
sentimental assurances and pardons.
A struggle with lives is the situation that this year's red-hot start
has expressively demonstrated.
Looking
at the current situation, obviously the strength of the reformists within the
Communist Party is too small. Most
of the people who supported the reform verbally would renege their own promises
when it involved their own interest.
The truly wise and firm political reformists are only a few. There is no successful precedent for
relying on trickery within the Communist Party to reform. Thus there were so many regime changes
during Chinese history.
Instead,
it was Bo Xilai who studied in the History Department to be able to look
through the laws of history. He
knew that there is one successful precedent, Mao Zedong himself, to result in a
thorough reform. Only with the
slash-and-burn of Mao is it possible to have the change that is revolutionary
yet without overthrowing the regime -- instead of paying the huge price of
regime change. We all know that
the so-called Cultural Revolution by Mao actually had as its goal to have a
revolution against those in power who were taking the capitalist road within
the Communist Party. Mao relied on
the support of fooled masses. That
was the root of Mao's success.
The
people now no longer can be fooled.
They know very clearly what they want, which is democracy, freedom and
the rule of law. Without relying
on the power of people, one would die miserably without the possibility of
success if he wanted to struggle with lives against the bureaucratic capitalists
within the Communist Party.
The
reformers must learn Mao's way to disown.
When your opponent could disown you, the sentimental revolution would be
a game. In Chinese words, a
children's game. When one treats
the struggle with lives as children's games, how could you not to suffer a
miserable death?
Now
it is just the same situation as what is in the ongoing hit TV series in China:
"The Legend of Chu and Han".
As the mansion of the regime is ready to collapse, all sorts of heroes
are eager to erupt, or rid themselves of bonds. Whatever positive energy saved at the emperor's court is not
sufficient to extinguish the fire nearby.
Only through elimination of the negative energy is there a possibility
to relieve the immediate crisis.
This would need the audacity of either being a true hero or a very
ambitious scoundrel such as Mao Zedong.
This
is the incidental which often happened in history. These opportunities only appear rarely. We the people should not believe it as
an inexorable law, but observe from far away and wait for an opportune moment
to act.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS130104RedHotStart.mp3
(Written
and recorded on January 4, 2013.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A744-W470
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A744-W470
Release
Date: January 12, 2013
发布日：2013年1月12日
Topic:
Red-Hot Start for the New Year of 2013 -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：新年开门红 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2013/report2013-01/WeiJS130112RedHotStartA744-W470.htm
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新年开门红
-- 魏京生
新年开门红是人们经常讲的一句祝贺语。2013年的这句祝贺语可是别有一番滋味。据说有改革意愿的习近平、李克强集团，确实已经开始了好像是要改革政治体制的小动作。但是代表广大官僚资产阶级的宣传部门，立刻就给了他们一个回马枪。仗打得红红火火，这就是今年的开门红。
事情的起因，是被江泽民、李鹏力挺上台的宣传部门首脑刘云山，为了给改革小动作不断的习李集团迎头痛击，私下更改了著名的南方周末的元旦献辞。由广东省委宣传部长亲自动手的行动，遭到了南方周末员工们的集体抗议。说起来这也算是个小动作吧。
紧接着就不能算是小动作了，也和元旦献辞有关。在北京的代表党内元老里的反对派言论的老牌刊物《炎黄春秋》的网站，因为元旦献辞中有婉转的推动政治改革的内容，被悄无声息地停刊了。不需要任何解释；也没有正式的通知，停你没商量。这显示了中共维护特权的官僚资产阶级权势和利益的决心，是六亲不认的。这倒是共产党的一贯传统。
说起六亲不认，很多人立刻会想起刚下台的薄熙来的光辉事迹：他在文革中打断他亲生父亲薄一波的三根肋骨，并因此被深知共产党规律的薄一波定为薄家的接班人，差一点就成为了共产党的接班人。遗憾的是小薄的功夫还不到家，终于还是成为党内斗争的牺牲品。
新年开门红的第一个回合就已经摆开了架势，下面会有什么好戏呢？你小习和小李私下里信誓旦旦地要开放党禁报禁；可元老们还不等你开局，就先拿下新闻宣传的大权；然后就是一个回马枪，挑战你总书记和总理的权威，反击右倾翻案风。
反击什么右倾翻案风呢？当年邓小平上台被反击的右倾翻案风，是打着恢复宪法秩序的旗号，试图把疯狂的毛泽东时代恢复到稍微正常一些。在全国人民的民意支持
下，在胡耀邦赵紫阳时代就正式展开了右倾翻案风，不过很快被邓小平自己给镇压下去了。从反对精神污染到六四大屠杀，邓小平完成了他自己的反击右倾翻案风。 中国政治回到了原点，邓小平差不多成为了新一代独裁者。
从毛泽东到邓小平；再到江泽民和胡锦涛，他们心目中一脉相传的核心价值，或者说最基本的原则就是一党专政的体制。谁干扰了他们的核心价值，谁就得下台。可是这个基本原则不符合历史的潮流；不符合百姓的愿望；也不符合共产党当年的信誓旦旦。它早就该寿终正寝了。早在毛泽东的时代，它的前途就已经是悬崖了。但邓小平悬崖勒马，让一党专政躲过了一劫。
如果说邓小平时代中国还处在十字路口，前方虽然是悬崖，但还可以绕着走。那么现在则是在悬崖前的丁字路口，不是傻瓜的共产党人都看得出来，继续一党专政的方向已经不可能了，只会掉进悬崖。
但是邓小平、江泽民、胡锦涛这三代的三十年时间，已经积累了庞大的惯性，这就是资本雄厚，人脉广阔，影响力巨大的官僚资产阶级。现在想刹车都很难了，正在一路冲向悬崖峭壁。最近的炎黄春秋事件就是证明。
改革派还抹不开面子，坚定的专政派可是六亲不认。下级竟敢给上级下不来台，其身后必然有强大的力量为后台。什么力量呢？这就是几千万各级官僚和他们的亲属和亲信，是靠着专政的权利获取利益和保障身家性命的几千万人。他们为了自己的利益和身家性命当然可以六亲不认。温情脉脉的各种保证和赦免没有人相信。搏命之争就是今年开门红所明示的局面。
以现在的局面来看，党内改革派的实力显然太小。大多数口头支持改革的人，在牵涉到自身利益的时候都会违背自己的诺言反水。真正明智而又坚定的政改派只能是少数。依靠党内权术进行改革，在历史上就没有成功的先例。所以中国历史上才有那么多次改朝换代。
倒是历史系出身的薄熙来看穿了历史规律。他知道如此彻底的革命性改革，在中国就只有毛泽东成功的先例。只有像毛泽东那样对官僚阶级大杀大砍，才能够既革命又不推翻政权，没有改朝换代那么大的代价。谁都看得出来，毛泽东名义上的文化大革命，实际上的革命目标是党内走资本主义道路的当权派。而他依靠的则是傻乎乎的老百姓的支持。这是他成功的根本。
现在的老百姓不再是傻乎乎的，他们很明确地知道自己要什么。这就是民主自由和法治。要和党内官僚资产阶级作生死搏斗，不依靠人民的力量只能是死得很惨，没有成功的可能。
改革者也要学习毛泽东的六亲不认。当你的对手也是六亲不认的时候，温情脉脉的革命就是一场游戏。中国话管那叫作儿戏。把生死之搏当作儿戏对待，还能够死得不惨吗？
这正像现在热播的电视剧《楚汉传奇》里的形势那样。大厦将倾，各路英雄豪杰正跃跃欲试，或者困顿于山野蓄势待发。在朝廷里积蓄什么正能量，根本就是远水解不了近渴；只有对负能量大杀大砍，才有可能解除眼前的危机。这非得有毛泽东那种不是英雄就是奸雄的魄力才行。
这恐怕就是历史上经常出现的偶然性了。用中文说叫作可遇而不可求。我们老百姓不可以把它当作必然规律去相信。只能远远地观察，待机而动。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS130104RedHotStart.mp3
（撰写并录音于2013年1月4日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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