Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A745-W471
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A745-W471
Release
Date: January 15, 2013
发布日：2013年1月15日
Topic:
2013 New Year's greetings -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：2013新年问候 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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2013
New Year's greetings
--
Wei Jingsheng
The
New Year has arrived. Customarily
on the New Year we report good things instead of bad things, for the purpose of
bringing good luck. However,
thinking it over, there were not many happy things happening in China in the
year 2012. For the Chinese people,
there was the economic recession, inflation, high prices for housing,
unaffordable health care, unaffordable school fees, and the affliction
environment was not improved. The
only good news was that the new leadership of the Chinese Communist Party seems
maybe ready to reform. One cannot
yet tell what kind of changes there will be. It is like the Chinese saying: one might have heard the
squeaking noise from the stairs, but have yet to see anyone come down.
Not
only is it the tradition of the Chinese Communist Party, even the leaders of
other countries who come to power will give the people some illusion for them
to dream. When the people wake up
from their dreams, these leaders' positions are stabilized. The results are that people had nothing
but a pipe dream of paradise. This
circle of pipe dreams may have some effect, although mostly would not be
honored. So today, let's not talk
about affairs in China, just talk about the Middle East. Other people's happy things are still
happy things, better than a total darkness.
In
2012, the revolution in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya was vigorous. Although the dust has not yet settled,
the democratic reform process has become irreversible. Now the people of North Africa have a
consciousness different than what it was after the Second World War. At that time, they had just gotten rid
of the colonial slave status, and also were influenced by the then popular
fascism. Thus, they felt that when
there are strong leaders to make the country prosperous and strong, people
would have a better life. This
belief is the important reason why the then colonial countries turned
themselves to dictatorial politics after they got rid of the rule of the
sovereign states.
After
more than half a century of brewing, and more importantly due to the rise of
the Internet in modern times, people's eyes were opened and their ideological
consciousness was improved. The
people could not accept slavery-like status anymore. The free life Westerners already had attracted them. A stone thrown into the pond arouses a
thousand waves. These people
wanted to have freedom and democracy.
When dictators refused to give these to them, people came to grab. People already knew these ideals
actually belong to the people. To
grab what should belong to you is not a crime.
This
is one series of good things in this world in the past year of 2012, extending
to the end of the year. Here is
just another news: the Syrian dictator is planning to apply for political
asylum from dictator of Venezuela.
Further, the Syrian ruling party's newspaper has publicly opposed their
leader. The ruling machine that
the dictator relies on has begun to collapse. Even more, it is switching its side and standing on the side
of the revolters.
For
months, the situation in Syria has been the focus of attention of the
international community. Inspired
by the revolutions in North Africa, various forces against the dictators rushed
headlong into mass action. Yet,
Western countries continued to hesitate.
Why? Westerners prejudice
towards the Muslims played an important role.
To
many Westerners and Jewish people, all Muslims are extremists. Americans especially lack patience to
get to know others, or to believe in others. They only believe the judgment of their university
professors who do not understand.
They take an attitude of distrust to people who are different. Thus they have been lead to a wrong
judgment of the revolutions of the Arab countries this time.
The
strength of the people in Tunisia and Egypt are relatively strong, so their
peaceful revolutions were quickly successful. The Libyan dictator was notorious in the West. Although they were hesitant at the
beginning, soon the Western countries intervened and helped the Libyan people
quickly overthrew the notorious dictator.
Only the situations in Syria and Yemen are relatively bad.
The
dictators there are relatively more powerful, and the opposition of the people
did not lead to concessions as in Egypt and Tunisia. Their dictators are also smarter than Gaddafi of Libya was,
who liked to show his claws against the Westerners and Israelis. This made the Western governments takes
a wait-and-see attitude, thus resulting in the extinguishing of Yemen's revolution
and the continuing struggle and suffering of the Syrian people.
Fortunately,
the Syrian people have not flinched.
They sought help from everywhere and finally some good news came near
the end of the year. The strength
of the people is not invincible.
That is a myth. But the
dictators are not invincible either.
That is even more a myth to scare young children. Finally, the sacrifices of the Syrian
people are being exchanged for a free and democratic future. This is a big happy thing of the year.
But
the happy thing to the Syrian people may not necessarily be a happy thing to
the Westerners. The US-led Western
countries not only lost the trust of the Arab people and the world, but also
created opportunities for their opponents like Russia, China and Iran. During this Syrian crisis, these
opponents gained a huge political and diplomatic interest without paying much
price by various means, such as relying on bluff, double dealing, stealing a
march, etc.
This
process precisely exposes a major weakness of the Western-style democracy. Its diplomacy is often reduced to the
average level of ordinary people.
Just as the Western media has to adapt to the average reader, Western
diplomacy rarely takes high-level visionary actions. This is the situation that we the Chinese need to take into
account when our revolution is just about to start.
We
must understand that the American people and the people in the West have their
own interests and limitations.
Despite the advice of many friends, we should not try to convince the
Americans to engage in a military invasion to help the Chinese people create a
democratic opportunity. It is
basically impossible. Unless a
third world war happens, such action does not meet the interests of the
American people.
I
feel that we Chinese people need to learn some useful experience from the
revolution in Syria. The first is
not to have the illusion that the dictatorial ruling clique will throw away
their weapons and become Buddhas.
The second is not to expect our friends be contrary to their own
interest in front of them to help us.
In our life, we rarely see friends who would be contrary to their own
interest to help others. In
international politics, it is even less likely to have statesmen like President
Roosevelt and President Reagan.
The politicians that come to power through voters are more likely to
have a vision like the ordinary voter.
Especially
considering China is a country both big and rich, we can only rely on ourselves
for the revolution.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2012/WeiJS121228newyeargreetings.mp3
(Written
and recorded on December 28, 2012.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A745-W471
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A745-W471
Release
Date: January 15, 2013
发布日：2013年1月15日
Topic:
2013 New Year's greetings -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：2013新年问候 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2013/report2013-01/WeiJS130115newyeargreetingsA745-W471.htm
-----------------------------------------------------------------
2013新年问候
-- 魏京生
新的一年来到了。习惯上过年见面都是报喜不报忧，图个吉利嘛。可是找来找去，过去的一年里中国的喜事真的不多。对中国老百姓来说，经济衰退、通货膨胀、房价居高不下、看不起病、上不起学，这些困苦的环境没什么改善。唯一的好消息就是中共新一届领导班子好像可能是要改革了。改什么还看不出来。也就是俗话所说的：只听楼梯响，不见人下来。
不但中共的传统，就是其它各国的领导人上台，也要给老百姓一些幻想，让老百姓做做梦。等老百姓梦醒了，他们的地位也稳固了。结果老百姓只不过是一场黄粱美梦而已。这种循环的美梦总是会有一定的效果，之后大多不会兑现。所以，今天咱们就不谈国事，只谈中东吧。别人的喜事也算是喜事，总比一片黑暗要好。
2012年突尼斯、埃及和利比亚的革命轰轰烈烈。虽然尘埃还没有落定，但民主改革的进程已经不可逆转了。现在的北非老百姓已经不是二次大战后的觉悟了。那时候他们刚从殖民地的奴隶地位摆脱不久，而且深受当时流行的法西斯主义影响，总觉得有个强势的领导人把国家搞得富强起来，老百姓就会有好日子过了。这是当时的各殖民地国家摆脱宗主国的统治后，大多数都改革成为独裁政治的重要原因。
经过了半个多世纪的酝酿，更重要的是现代互联网的兴起，开拓了老百姓的眼光，提高了他们的思想觉悟。老百姓不能够继续接受奴隶般的地位了。西方人已经获得的自由生活吸引着他们。于是一石激起千重浪，他们要自由了，要民主了。独裁者们不给，那就抢。现在老百姓已经知道了，这本来就是老百姓自己的东西。老百姓只是抢回了自己被抢的东西而已，不算犯罪。
这就是过去的一年一连串的喜事，而且一直延伸到了年底。刚听到一个消息：叙利亚的独裁者已经打算向委内瑞拉的独裁者申请政治避难了。而且叙利亚执政党的党报已经公开反对他们的领袖。独裁者所依靠的执政机器已经开始崩溃了。而且还反戈一击，站在了反抗者的一边。
几个月以来，叙利亚的局势一直是国际社会关注的焦点。各种反抗独裁者的势力，在北非革命的感召下一哄而起。但是西方国家一如既往地犹豫观望。为什么呢？因为西方人对穆斯林的偏见起了重要的作用。
在很多西方人和犹太人看来，所有的穆斯林都是极端分子。特别是美国人，他们没有耐心去了解别人，也不相信别人，而只相信自己大学里的那些并不懂的教授的判断。他们对这个世界上和他们不一样的人一律采取不信任的态度。这就导致了对这次阿拉伯国家的革命做出了错误的判断。
突尼斯和埃及的人民力量相对强大一些，他们的和平的革命很快就成功了。利比亚的独裁者在西方臭名昭著。虽然一开始也是犹犹豫豫，但很快西方国家就插手，帮助利比亚人民迅速推翻了臭名昭著的独裁者。只有叙利亚和也门的情况比较糟糕。
那里的独裁者力量相对更强大一些，人民的反抗没有像埃及和突尼斯那样导致独裁者的让步。他们的独裁者也比利比亚的卡扎菲聪明，没有对西方和以色列人张牙舞爪。这就使西方国家的政府采取了观望的态度，并且造成了也门的革命被扑灭，叙利亚人民的革命在那儿苦苦挣扎着。
好在叙利亚人民并没有退缩。他们寻求了各方面的帮助，终于在今年快要结束时传来了喜讯。人民的力量并不是不可战胜的，那是个神话。但是独裁者也不是不可战胜的，那更是个吓唬小孩子的神话。叙利亚人民的牺牲终于换来了自由民主的前程。这是今年的一大喜事。
但是叙利亚人民的喜事不一定就是西方人的喜事。美国为首的西方国家不但失去了阿拉伯人民和世界各国的信任，而且给自己的对手俄罗斯、中国和伊朗创造了机会。这些对手在这次叙利亚危机中靠着虚张声势、两面三刀、暗渡陈仓等等手段，没付什么代价就获得了政治外交上的巨大利益。
这个过程恰恰暴露出西方式的民主的一个很大的弱点。这就是外交上经常会降低到普通人的平均水平上下。西方外交和西方的媒体一样，不得不适应大多数读者的平均水平，很少有高水平的、有远见的动作。这也是我们中国人在将要开始的革命中必须顾及到的状况。
我们必须理解美国人民和西方人民有他们自己的利益和局限性。而不能像很多朋友那样，动不动就敦促我说服美国人军事入侵，帮助中国人创造一个民主的机会。这基本上是不可能的事情。除非发生第三次世界大战，否则这样做不符合美国人民的利益。
我觉得我们中国人要在这场叙利亚革命中学会一些有用的经验。首先就是不要幻想专制统治集团会放下屠刀立地成佛；其次就是不要指望朋友会违背他们自己的眼前利益来帮助我们。生活中很少会碰到违背自己眼前利益的朋友，国际政治中就更少能碰到像罗斯福总统和里根总统那样的政治家，靠选民上台的政治家更多的是像普通老百姓一样眼光的人。
特别是我们中国这个既大又富有的国家。革命只能靠我们自己。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2012/WeiJS121228newyeargreetings.mp3
（撰写并录音于2012年12月28日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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