Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A751-W477
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A751-W477
Release
Date: February 10, 2013
发布日：2013年2月10日
Topic:
The Dangerous Situation in Asia -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：亚洲的危险局势 -- 魏京生
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Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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The
Dangerous Situation in Asia
--
Wei Jingsheng
The
dispute between Japan and China over the Diaoyu Islands has been like one wave
coming after another. It has
already been determined by the U.S. Secretary of Defense that it "could
result in violence and could result in conflict” without a good end. This is not what the USA expected when
it was realigning its policies to return to Asia. However, it should have been expected.
When
the Obama administration planed its policy of returning to Asia, it treated
Japan as a major driving force. It
planned to promote Japan's position in Asia to suppress the rapid rise of the
Chinese Communist regime. Thus it
could stimulate Japan's sense of responsibility, to encourage it to take some
responsibility, and meanwhile save the resources of the United States, instead
of a unilateral hands-on approach for everything. This seemed to be a perfect plan. Unfortunately, this plan is too academic and
industrialized. In other words, it
is like a scheme planned by bookworms and entrepreneurs, rather than
politicians.
The
genesis of this plan is intuitive and simple as a factory production workshop,
rather than an evaluation of the deeper and complicated changes in Japan, China
and the United States. So it has
encountered a predicament of its own making. Now let us make a simply review of the gap between this plan
and reality.
First,
the plan incorrectly treated the reaction of the Hu Jintao's administration as
that of Xi Jinping's. Initially, it reckoned that China would retreat when
Japan pressed harder and harder; that China would adopt Deng Xiaoping's policy
regarding this territorial dispute headed by Japan and collaborated with by the
Philippines in an effort to keep the momentum of economic development in China. The result would be that the confidence
of the U.S. allies would greatly increase while the hegemony of China would
greatly reduce. Without a shot
being fired, the United States could concretely return to Asia.
But
the first result was that the actual reaction from Xi Jinping which was totally
unexpected of the USA. First, Xi
had just taken over power. If he
wanted to achieve something, he needed to establish prestige. According to tradition in the Chinese
Communist Party, to have a victorious battle is the simplest and most effective
method to establish prestige. Both
Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping established their undisputed prestige by defeating
a powerful enemy. Second, Xi
Jinping dared to take a gamble against the USA and believes that the USA will not
dare nor is it capable of waging a war, especially waging a full-scale war with
a big country of nuclear power. It
can be said that Xi Jinping has basically won the bet already.
The
second result that was out of the expectation of the USA was the reaction of
Japan and the Philippines. The
Philippine President has already begun to emphasize his Chinese ancestry,
obviously wanting to exit the battle safely and hide on the sidelines waiting
for profit from others'conflicts.
This is a very normal reaction from a weak country such as the
Philippines. It also illustrates
that the international community clearly views that the USA will not resort to
another war. Hoping to confront
China by relying on U.S. military support is a very foolish choice.
Japan
should not take a hardline strategy that provokes a war, but should choose
entangled tactics, as Mao Zedong said, "When the enemy advances, we
retreat; when the enemy retreats, we advance." That is because Japan will
not get any benefit from war, but entangled tactics obviously puts both Chinese
foreign and internal affairs at a disadvantage. If Xi Jinping's administration did not provide results, not
only would Xi Jinping be unable to explain this failure to the fanatical
nationalist youths in China, he would be unable to explain it to the candidates
inside the Communist Party who want to overthrow him. The hardline of Japan pushed Xi Jinping into a corner. Not to mention that Xi has the
assurance to defeat Japan alone.
The
foolishness of Japan is not due the foolishness of its politicians, but due to
its fanatical nationalism that does not allow its politicians to take a
flexible strategy. As soon as the
Yoshihiko Noda government slightly displayed some flexibility, the fanatical
Japanese people ousted it. The
ignorance and fanaticism of the Japanese nation led to its failure in the
Second World War, yet they do not think it was their fault. Now, they are pushing its government
toward the abyss. The promise of
security from the USA is pouring the oil on this fire of Japanese fanaticism.
Who
would profit from this possible war?
For certain, Japan will be the most miserable. Because this war will not be carried out on someone else's
land. From the beginning, it will
be carried out on the territory of Japan, and may not get the support from the
United States. What the United
States can do is to confine the war to the territories of China and Japan
instead of spreading to the rest of Asia, or even the whole world. Of course the USA will carry out real
trade sanctions, which is conducive to improving its domestic economy and
employment conditions.
To
the Chinese Communist regime, it will gain more than lose; but to China itself,
the drawback would be more than the benefit. This war would make the foreign relations of China return
back to where they were before the 1972 U.S. President Richard Nixon's visit to
China, meanwhile losing its favorable international environment for economic
adjustment and development. More
importantly, it would consolidate authoritarian rule of the Chinese Communist
Party with the support of fanatical nationalism, thus losing the last chance
for democratic reform. Maybe there
would be a revolution like that in 1917, but it may also extend the rule of the
Chinese Communist Party.
The
original assumption of the Americans is that they could stay out. But this is impossible. When the second and third largest
economies in the world are at war the global economy will collapse, thus also
resulting in a synchronous impact on the U.S. economy. Although it is possible that the
Sino-US trade deficit would be reduced, due to the decrease in exports to both
China and Japan the employment rate in the USA would not be increased. The level of consumption in the United
States will certainly decline; the financial industry will fall into a
disaster. Due to the variability
of the war, all the industries must adapt. Development will certainly stagnate or go backwards. The results will not be good for the
USA either.
There
is another possibility that the war would not be as the people planed and
remain only between China and Japan. As was said in Art of War by Sunwu: warfare is based
on treachery. It is characterized
by the unpredictable and does not follow rules. Further, a war between two big countries involves a huge
range of interests. The
possibility of the war being limited only on the territories of these two
countries is not likely. Who could
guarantee themselves to be safely positioned outside this kind of world war?
Since
it is a war that could benefit no one, then each party should try to work
together to stop it. What is
needed now is for the politicians of the three parties to calm their minds and
take some responsible actions. The
disaster of many wars is caused by political intrigue and fanaticism of the
politicians whose minds were not clear.
Often the small calculations of the politicians are likely to bring huge
disasters.
Who
would be responsible for these disasters?
Usually those who bear the consequences of the disasters are the average
people.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS130208dangerousAsia.mp3
(Written
and recorded on February 8, 2013.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A751-W477
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A751-W477
Release
Date: February 10, 2013
发布日：2013年2月10日
Topic:
The Dangerous Situation in Asia -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：亚洲的危险局势 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2013/report2013-02/WeiJS130210dangerousAsiaA751-W477.htm
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亚洲的危险局势
-- 魏京生
中日之间因为钓鱼岛产生的争端，一波未平一波又起。已经被美国国防部长判定为很难善终了。这是美国在制定重返亚洲政策时没有预料到，但却应该预料到的结果。
奥巴马政府在计划重返亚洲政策时，把日本当作了主要的推动力量。计划提升日本在亚洲的地位，压制迅速崛起的中共。这既可以激发日本的责任心，促使日本分担一部分责任；又可以节省美国自己的资源，不必事事都亲历亲为。看上去是个很完美的计划。遗憾的是这个计划太学术化了，太工厂化了。换句话说，太像是企业家和书呆子制定的计划，而不是政治家头脑里产生的玩艺。
首先是这个计划的前提条件就像工厂的生产车间一样的直观和简单，而没有估计到日本、中国和美国的更深层次的复杂变化。所以现在它遇到了自己制造的困境。现在我们简单地回顾一下这个计划和现实之间的差距。
首先是它错误地把胡锦涛当局的反应当作了习近平当局的反应。原先估计中国会在日本的步步紧逼下退缩，为了保住经济发展的势头，对日本为首、菲律宾协作的领土纠纷采取邓小平的政策。其结果是美国的盟国信心大增，中国的霸权大大削减。不费一枪一弹，美国就可以实实在在地重返亚洲。
结果先是习近平的反应大出意料之外。第一是他刚上台，希望有所作为就需要树立威信。按照中共的传统，打一场胜仗是树立威信最简单也最有效的方法。毛泽东和邓小平都是靠打败一个强敌树立起不容争议的威信。第二是他敢和美国赌一赌，相信美国现在不敢也无力再发动一场战争，而且是和一个核大国打一场全面战争。可以说，习近平基本上已经赌赢了。
其次是日本、菲律宾的反应也出乎美国的意料之外。菲律宾的总统已经开始强调他的中国血统，明显是要安全地退出这场战斗，躲在一旁等待坐收渔利了。这对于菲律宾这样的弱国是再正常不过的反应。这也说明国际社会都看出来美国不会再打一场战争了。希望靠美国的军力支持对抗中国，是个非常愚蠢的选择。
日本应该采取的策略是纠缠战法。也就是毛泽东说过的“敌进我退，敌退我进”，不应该是挑起战争的强硬路线。因为日本不会在战争中得到任何好处，但是纠缠战术则明显对中国的外交和内政都不利。习近平当局如果不给出一个结果来，他不仅对狂热的民族主义愤青们无法交待，对党内那些想推翻他的候选人们更无法交待。日本的强硬路线就是把习近平逼到了死角。何况他有单独击败日本的把握。
日本的愚蠢不是政治家的愚蠢，而是民族主义的狂热不许政治家采取灵活的策略。野田政府稍微表现一些灵活就被狂热的日本民众赶下了台。日本民族的愚昧和狂热导致了第二次世界大战的失败，并且他们不认为是自己的错误。现在则正在推动政府再一次走向深渊。而美国的安全承诺，正在给日本的民族主义狂热火上浇油。
总结一下这场可能发生的战争，谁会在其中得利呢？日本肯定是最惨的。因为这次不会是在别人的国土上打仗了，战争从一开始就会在日本的领土上展开，而且可能还得不到美国的援助。美国能做到的就是把战争局限在中日两国的领土上，不要殃及池鱼。实行真正的贸易制裁是肯定的，这有利于改善美国的国内经济和就业状况。
对中共来说是利大于弊；而对中国来说则是弊大于利。这场战争将使得中国的对外关系倒退回1972年尼克松访华之前，并且失去调整和发展经济的有利国际环境。更重要的是，会在民族主义狂热的支持下巩固中共的专制统治，失去民主改革的最后机会。也可能会发生1917年那样的革命，但也可能延长了共产党的统治。
美国人原来的设想是自己可以置身事外。但这是不可能的。世界第二大和第三大经济体打成了一锅粥，全球经济都会陷入衰退，也会对美国经济产生同步的影响。中美贸易逆差是可能减少了，但由于对中日两国的出口减少，就业率却不会有所提高。美国的消费水平肯定会下降，金融业会陷入一片灾难之中。由于战争的多变性，各行业都必须调整适应。发展肯定会陷入停滞或者倒退。结果也不会得到什么好处。
还有一种可能，就是战争不会像人们计划好的那样，仅限于中国和日本之间。正像孙子兵法上所说的那样；兵者诡道也。它的特点就是不可预测和不讲规矩。而且两个大国之间的战争，利益牵扯的范围极大。被局限于两国领土上的可能性不大。谁能保证自己会安全地置身于这样一场世界大战之外呢？
既然是谁也得不到好处的一场战争，就应该各方共同来制止它。现在需要的是有关的三方政治家们都把头脑放冷静一些，采取负责任的行动。很多战争的灾难，都是政治家们头脑不清楚的政治阴谋和政治狂热引起的。政治家们的小算计带来的很可能是巨大的灾难。
谁来为这些灾难负责呢？承担灾难后果的往往是老百姓。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS130208dangerousAsia.mp3
（撰写并录音于2013年2月8日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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