Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A752-W478
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A752-W478
Release
Date: February 16, 2013
发布日：2013年2月16日
Topic:
Commentary on the Korean Peninsula and China's Relations Again -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：再谈朝鲜半岛和中国的关系 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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Commentary
on the Korean Peninsula and China's Relations Again
--
Wei Jingsheng
Originally,
I did not want to spend too much of my commentary time on the Kim dynasty in
North Korea. But the Kim dynasty
keeps making trouble, and one cannot just leave it alone. I have talked briefly about the
relationship between North Korea and China over the past 3,000 years. After Kim Jong-un had another nuclear
test one cannot be unconcerned about the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
This
Kim family is not quite the same as most of the Koreans. The Kim family seems to have inherited
more habits of the ancient hunting nation; cruelty and independence. The Chinese idiom describes it as
"tyrannically and haughtily intractable". That "tyrannically and haughtily" is the
characteristic of people in the mountains, who are haughty because of their
limited vision.
"Intractable" refers to the fact that they are not quite
willing to accept the common standards of society, not willing to deal with
others fairly. They just want
others to submit to their will, in the way hunters treat beasts -- killing when
facing refusal. And they are very
patient, like an eagle that will not take off until it sees rabbits.
In
fact, some of South Korea's expansionist angry youths also have some of this
personality, and thus they have an unjustifiable anti-American upsurge. Americans are protecting them. But the Korean youths treat the
Americans as the main target of their demonstrations. In contrast, the Chinese in Taiwan are quite different. Even though the Americans both betrayed
them and protect them, they will not treat Americans as foe to be against. In this national character, the
Japanese are more like Koreans, instead of Chinese.
These
characteristics of the nation have resulted in today's political style of North
Korea. The Kim family treats both
their own people and others very harshly, and do not comply with any rules
either domestically and internationally.
The politics in South Korea have been gradually integrated into
international politics that have to abide by the rules, thus they display less
of these characteristics while the dictators in North Korea display much more.
Regarding
the issue of North Korea, not only are the United States and Japan making
mistakes, the Chinese leaders are also continuously making mistakes. Mao Zedong thought that if he helped
Kim Il Sung so much, that North Korea would be a strong ally in the future. But Mao was wrong. When Mao become increasingly isolated due
to the Cultural Revolution, Kim Il Sung, who once was under the command of Mao,
mobilized a military build-up on the Yalu River -- boarder between China and
North Korea.
After
the fall of the Soviet Union, Kim Jong-il maintained his survival mainly by
relying on Deng Xiaoping's support and aid. While Kim Jong-il helped Deng Xiaoping disrupt the world, he
also made his own way to threaten the security of the world. In this way, Kim Jong-il pursued his
own interests, maintaining a certain distance from the Chinese Communist Party
and consistently using his actions to emphasize North Korea's independence and
freedom of disobedience.
The
third generation of Kim Jong-un inherited the tradition of the previous two
generations and carries it forward.
Its goal is to learn from China's possession of nuclear weapons, thus to
dominate independently, instead of being the little brother of the Chinese
Communist Party that is often forced as a cat's paw to pick up that roasted
chestnut from the fire for the monkey.
Because this third generation was educated in the West, he has learned
Western pragmatism. So he has
views more clear than those of his father and grandfather; at least he thinks
that Western diplomatic pragmatism must accept his hegemony -- the world only
follows the law of the jungle that the weak shall be consumed by the strong.
What
would be the attitude of North Korea towards China, the USA and Japan under the
guidance of this diplomacy principle?
Of course: the law of the jungle.
Developing economically and increasing the nation's strength as China
did is too slow. The prospect of
developing like peasants does not fit the character of a hunting nation. Further, with the size of North Korea,
even if it gained prosperity after one hundred years, it still would not be a
powerful country that could beat the big countries of China and Japan
historically. This short glory in
history would be a stimulant for nationalists, just as the French always
cherish the memory of Napoleon.
The
French have already entered modern society. This drug is denatured by modern civilization. It acts no more than the coffee after
dinner, to be excited with pleasure.
The conduct of a normal nation would follow rules. But in an authoritarian country, this
nationalistic drug that breaks out now and then would be the rule of conduct of
the nation due to its authoritarian system. It becomes the most dangerous motive for this nation.
Some
Koreans often issue absurd arguments that most of China and Japan should be
their territory. The farfetched
reason is not important; what is more of importance is their ambitions --
robbery meets more with their wishes than hard work. This is a huge psychological difference between the ethnic
nomadic or hunting groups and the agriculture and handicraft nations.
So,
what goals would the three generations of the Kim family, or say the rulers of
North Korea choose? Eating China
and Japan would definitely be the second step, while the first step of eating
South Korea would be perfectly justified.
If China and Japan get into war against each other, so no time and
strength could be piped into the Korean peninsula, then it would not be
something impossible for the Kim dynasty with nuclear weapons to unify Korea by
leading an army southwards.
If
North Korea took over South Korea with its well-developed economy as its
territory, it would become a very powerful economic and military state. Even the angry youths of extreme
nationalism in South Korea would not refuse such a prospect. The militaristic ambition of Japan will
be reappearing in North Korea. The
prospect of a powerful North Korea would be an easy convincing point to people
who are fully addicted to the drug of extreme nationalism. Even South Koreans could easily accept
this reality of a strong, unified Korea.
It may be their highest ideal in the past more than a hundred years,
just like the Mongols back then who wanted to unify the whole world.
Under
the domination of the ideal, what would be the role of the neighboring
countries and the people have in their minds? They are not neighbors, but a hearty dinner waiting for
shots. The Chinese Communist
regime thought of the little emperor in North Korea as the puppet emperors in
Chinese history, which is totally wrong.
Once the Kim dynasty unified Korea, its next goal would not be a Japan
that is under the protection of the USA, but a China that was also bound to
crumble. If the Manchus, with a
similar strength as Korea, could take over China as the Qing Dynasty and also
be recognized by the Chinese people, why couldn't North Korea do the same?
The
stupidity of the Chinese Communists is that it thought of North Korea as an
obedient dog, without realizing that it was really a lurking wolf. Indeed, when it had to accept aid and
to be fed by the Chinese Communists, it was very much like a dog, with its
sinister goals hidden deep in its heart.
But when the time comes, without hesitation, it will eat the Mr. DongGuo
who helped him as told by the Chinese fable. This is the same kind of story as the Farmer and the Viper
in Aesop's fable.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS130215SinoKorea2.mp3
(Written
on February 14 and recorded on February 15, 2013. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A752-W478
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A752-W478
Release
Date: February 16, 2013
发布日：2013年2月16日
Topic:
Commentary on the Korean Peninsula and China's Relations Again -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：再谈朝鲜半岛和中国的关系 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2013/report2013-02/WeiJS130216SinoKorea2A752-W478.htm
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再谈朝鲜半岛和中国的关系
-- 魏京生
本来我不想把评论的时间都花在金家王朝上。但是金家王朝不停地惹麻烦，想不搭理它都不行。在简单地了解了朝鲜和中国三千年的关系之后，在金三世又一次进行了核试验之后，想不关注朝鲜半岛的局势都不行。
金家的人和大多数朝鲜人不太一样。他们好像更多地继承了古代游猎民族的习性；残忍而又独立。用中国成语说就是桀骜不驯。桀骜是山里人的特点，因为眼界狭小所以自视甚高。不驯是说他们不太愿意接受社会的共同标准，不愿意和人家公平地打交道。他们只想着让别人服从他们的意志，就像猎人对待野兽一样，不服就杀。而且很有耐心，不见兔子不撒鹰。
其实韩国的一些扩张主义愤青愤佬们也是这种性格，所以才会有不合情理的反美热潮。美国人保护着他们，他们反倒把美国人当作游行示威的主要对象。反观台湾的中国人就很不一样。虽然美国人既出卖他们又保护他们，他们却不会把美国人当作仇人一样地反对。在这种民族性上，日本人更像韩国人，而不像中国人。
正是这种民族性格，造成了今日的朝鲜政治风格。它的特点就是对自己的人民和对别人都很严酷，而且在内政外交上都不喜欢遵守任何规矩。韩国的政治已经逐渐融入到不得不守规矩的国际政治中，他们的这种风格表现得比较少。而朝鲜的独裁者身上就比较多。
在对待朝鲜的问题上，不但美国、日本在犯错误，中国的领导人们也在不断地犯错误。毛泽东以为帮了金日成那么大的忙，将来的朝鲜可以成为中国坚强的盟国。可是他错了。在毛泽东因为文化革命而在世界上越来越孤立的时候，金日成这个曾经是毛泽东的老部下已经把军队集结到了鸭绿江边。
苏联倒台后，金正日几乎全靠邓小平的支持和援助维持生存。他在帮助邓小平搅乱这个世界的同时，也在自行其是地威胁这个世界的安全。以此来谋求自身的利益，并和中共保持一定的距离，时刻以行动强调朝鲜的独立自主和不服从的自由。
第三代的金正恩继承了前两代的传统并且发扬光大。而且他们的目标就是要学习中国拥有核武器，从此可以独立地称霸，不用再作为中国共产党的小兄弟，为中共火中取栗。正因为这个第三代在西方受过教育，很懂得西方人的实用主义。所以他比他的父亲和祖父看得更清楚；至少他认为西方的外交实用主义必须接受他的霸权，这个世界仍然只不过是弱肉强食的丛林法则。
在这种外交原则指导下的朝鲜，对中国和美国日本会是什么样的态度呢？当然也是丛林法则。像中国那样发展经济增强国力，这个太慢了。这种农民式的发展前景不符合游猎民族的性格。而且以朝鲜的规模，即使一百年后富裕了，也不可能像历史上那样成为打败中国、日本这些大国的强国。历史上这种短暂的辉煌会成为民族主义者的兴奋剂，就像法国人永远怀念拿破仑一样。
法国人已经进入了现代社会。这种毒药已经被现代文明去毒化了，仅仅不过成为饭后的咖啡，兴奋一下精神而已。正常的国家行为一切都按规矩来办。可是在一个独裁的国家，这种时不时发作一下的毒品，会因为独裁制度而成为国家的行为准则。它会成为这个民族的最危险的动机。
有些韩国人常常发出一些奇谈怪论，认为中国的大部分和日本应该是他们的领土。理由的牵强不重要，重要的是他们的野心--抢来的比辛辛苦苦工作更符合他们的愿望。这是游牧或者游猎民族和农业手工业民族心理上的巨大差别。
那么金家三代人，或者说北朝鲜的统治者们会选择什么目标呢？吃掉中国、日本肯定是第二步，吃掉韩国则是名正言顺的第一步。比如说中国和日本打起来了，大家都没时间和力量管朝鲜半岛的事。这时候拥有核武器的金家王朝挥师南下统一朝鲜，就不是不可能的事情了。
把经济发展得不错的南部纳入王朝的版图，就是一个经济和军事都很强大的国家了。这个前景，就是韩国那些极端民族主义愤青们也不会拒绝。日本的军国主义思潮就
会在朝鲜再现。给他们一个强大的朝鲜，很容易说服饱受极端民族主义毒害的国民。反过来说，就是韩国人也很容易接受一个强大的、统一的朝鲜这个现实。这可能是这个民族一百多年来的最高理想，就像当年的蒙古人想统一全世界一样。
在这个理想的支配下，周边国家和人民在他们的心目中是什么角色呢？不是邻居，而是等待射猎的丰盛晚餐。中共以为朝鲜的小皇帝只是中国历史上的儿皇帝。这就
大错特错了。一旦金家王朝统一了朝鲜，下一个目标不会是美国保护下的日本，而必将是本身也摇摇欲坠的中国。实力和朝鲜差不多的满清可以统一中国，并且得到中国人的认同，朝鲜有什么不可以的呢？
中共的愚蠢在于它以为朝鲜是一个听话的狗，而不知道那是个潜伏的狼。的确，在它不得不接受豢养的时候，在它还离不开中共的援助的时候，它很像一条狗，狼子野心会被深深的藏在心底。一旦时机成熟，它会毫不犹豫地吃掉帮助过它的东郭先生。这和西方寓言里的农夫和蛇是同样的故事。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS130215SinoKorea2.mp3
（撰写于2013年2月14日。录音于2013年2月15日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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