Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A764-W485
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A764-W485
Release
Date: June 9, 2013
发布日：2013年6月9日
Topic:
About the US-China Presidential Talks in California -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：中美总统级加州会谈 -- 魏京生
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About
the US-China Presidential Talks in California
--
Wei Jingsheng
The
Chinese and American Presidents have broken convention. Instead of engaging in any kind of
formal visit, they are having an informal friendship diplomacy in a small
California town. It was said that
it was for the purpose of enhancing personal feelings in order to facilitate
the establishment of mutual trust in the future. But most of not-so-stupid people will not believe that,
instead they will think that this argument is only a diplomatic smoke bomb.
The
first argument is that this visit is a bit like inserting an important news
item into a normal TV program.
Originally, visiting the USA was not on Xi Jinping's agenda during his
visit to the American continent.
However, as the visit dates approached, they suddenly announced that Xi
will indeed visit the USA, yet it would not be a formal visit nor a pretend
vacation. Instead, it would be a
new pattern called personal diplomacy, thus building trust between the two
countries and so on. Obviously
there are hidden tricks here.
Why? As China is under a one-party
dictatorship, if Xi Jinping really has reached the dictator position in the
Communist Party like Mao Zedong, then we could say that personal sentiment is
equal to mutual trust between the two countries. But at least as of now Xi has not reached the dictator
level. What he says has yet to be counted. At the most he is a pretend dictator, only enough to fool
Americans.
What
President Obama is doing is even more outrageous. As a president of a democratic country, he is formally
representing the American people.
What he needs to do is to execute the will of the American people. How can he replace the national
interest with personal feelings?
This description is obviously used to fool the Chinese people, and
should not be taken seriously.
Both sides are igniting smoke bombs. It is like the typical police-detective movies in Hong Kong,
spies against spies.
However,
the postures of the two persons are different. The first is that Obama relinquished his haughty airs as the
president of a big country, asking Xi Jinping to take a rest stop in the USA
after his visits to three countries in Latin America. In private, he let the Chinese government know that there
are important matters unsuitable to be publicized, but could be whispered in
privacy during a walk.
Certainly
Xi Jinping was overjoyed when he heard that, because he also has urgent matters
he is unable to back down on with good grace without help from Obama. Thus he quickly agreed without much
thought, and arranged this secret meeting in open with no notice. Thus there is this dramatic arrangement
of California walks.
The
arrangement seems to be very dramatic, along with smoke bombs such as
discussing hackers, etc. But
actually it was quite clumsy, for the purpose of fooling the people. That they are meeting each other in
such a hurry means that there are political deals unsuitable to see the light. They cannot fool discerning people who
understand this subterfuge at a glance.
First
the Japanese got anxious. They
took a tough stance, demanding the Americans to tell them everything from the
talks between Obama and Xi Jinping.
The American officials solemnly told the Japanese that the President
himself will tell them, asking the Japanese to be patient. This answer is equivalent to assuring
the Japanese that the United States will not sell out its ally of Japan. I feel that the Japanese certainly were
not so assured.
This
General Secretary Xi of the Chinese Communist Party is also kind of
strange. Instead of staying at the
beautiful estate, he insisted on staying in a hotel at this tourist spot. It was said it was to prevent eavesdropping,
which is an admission of a lot of hidden tricks not for others to know. This kind of sneaky conduct seems not
to match well with the new power relations he is advocating. Combined with the earlier sneaky walk
between the president of South Korea and President Obama, one could deduce that
this meeting has a lot to do with the Korean peninsula.
What
issue would be concentrated on during this secret political deal? Xi Jinping expressed a hard stance as
soon as he came to power, which immediately stimulated a nationalism upsurge in
China on the issues of the South China Sea and the East China Sea. In comparison, Japan has been uniting
countries around the South China Sea to form a united front. Although Xi Jinping scored points in
domestic politics, he cannot go to war in both the South China Sea and East
China Sea at the same time. Even a
victory in a war in the East China Sea is not guaranteed. So he is unable to back down with grace
right now.
Obama
also has his own difficulties.
Recently, North Korea has been dramatic with its nuclear test and
missiles, claimed to have the range to reach the United States. Although experts say that that chubby
Kim Jong-un does not have this capability, it does not count. If the United States is involved in war
in Asia, the Chinese government may not use its own nuclear weapons. But that little rogue Kim Jong-un
may. If Kim does not actually have
the capability, will China not give it to him as a proxy? This puts the USA in a tough position. So solving the North Korea issue is a
problem for President Obama, which is why he is more anxious than Xi Jinping,
as well as the reason why Japan is the most anxious one.
Fortunately,
Xi Jinping made a conciliatory gesture in advance. It includes the imposed sanctions on North Korea, as well as
the rejection of a chubby Kim Jong-un visit to Beijing. Not knowing if that was real or not,
but it was a life-saving straw to the American media. It forced Obama to request the assistance of Xi Jinping,
with a price.
Both
sides have estimated that this rush meeting will not produce immediate
effects. That is because the
United States will not abandon its strategy of rebalancing Asia and Japan. Otherwise it would mean giving up Asia
and becoming the secondary country.
If that happens, President Obama will become a sinner to Americans. Mr. Obama is not stupid enough to such
a degree. He changed his generals
right before the battle, to name the tough attitude Susan Rice to be the
national security adviser. This is
exactly indicative of his determination.
Xi
Jinping cannot retreat either.
Since he came to power more than six months ago, he had done nothing
except this thing that provoked international tension, although he gained one
point in inciting nationalism in China.
However, if nothing further happens, he will be stuck in trouble
diplomatically. Then his position
will not last. So as a matter of
the fact, Xi is really more anxious than Obama.
Obama
can convince Japan to recognize that the Diaoyu Islands are disputed
territory. The price is that the
Abe Cabinet will be finished.
Fortunately, Japan is a democracy, and it is not much of a problem when
its head of state changes. But, to
have Xi Jinping convince Kim Jong-un to abandon his nuclear weapons policy is
much more difficult. The result
could be the collapse of the Kim dynasty in North Korea and a unified Korean
peninsula. In this way, Xi Jinping
becomes a sinner to the Chinese Communist Party. A united Korea is not what the Chinese Communist Party wants
to see, so Xi cannot let it happen.
From
the above analysis we can see that although both sides are very nervous and
very serious, this meeting in California could only be a phony kind of
promotion of personal feelings, for the purpose to list conditions privately
now and then have slow talks afterwards.
Although we can be sure in the end that both sides are unwilling to see
war, how will they solve the deadlock created by the two sides? We shall wait and see.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS130607CApresidentialtalks.mp3
(Written
and recorded on June 7, 2013.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A764-W485
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A764-W485
Release
Date: June 9, 2013
发布日：2013年6月9日
Topic:
About the US-China Presidential Talks in California -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：中美总统级加州会谈 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2013/report2013-06/WeiJS130609CApresidentialtalksA764-W485.htm
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中美总统级加州会谈
-- 魏京生
中国的主席和美国的总统打破惯例，没有搞什么正式的访问，而是在美国加利福尼亚州的一个小地方搞了个非正式的友情外交。据说是为了增进个人感情，以利于今后建立互信。但是大多数不那么傻的人都不相信，认为这个说法只不过是外交烟雾而已。
首先是这次的访问有点儿像是电视节目中插播重要新闻。在习近平访问美洲的日程中本来没有访问美国的计划，日期临近突然宣布要到美国访问。而且还不是正式访问，但也不是假装休假。而是玩儿了个新花样，说是来增进个人感情，然后就可以建立两国之间的互信云云。显然这其中必有猫腻。
为什么呢？作为一党独裁的中国，如果习近平真的像毛泽东那样党内独裁了，才可以说个人感情就等于两国互信。但至少现在他还没当上独裁者，说了还不算，最多也就是假装独裁者，忽悠美国佬而已。
奥巴马就更不像话了。你是民主国家的总统，只是形式上代表美国人，是执行美国人民的意志的代理人。怎么能以你个人的感情代替国家利益呢？这明显是在忽悠中国人，不能当真。两个人都在放烟雾弹，就像香港的警匪片，谍对谍。
不过两个人的姿态却不同。先是奥巴马放下大国总统的架子，上赶着请求习近平在访问拉丁美洲三国之后顺便来美国歇个脚。私下里告诉中国政府，说是有重要的事项不便公开，可以私下里散步的时候说悄悄话。
习近平肯定是一听大喜过望。因为他也正有下不来台的紧急事项要求奥巴马帮忙。于是连想也不用想就一口答应下来，用最短的时间安排了这次公开的秘密会谈。这样就有了加州散步的戏剧性安排。
安排好象很戏剧性，也放了很多讨论黑客之类的烟雾弹。但其实很拙劣，骗骗老百姓而已。他们俩人都这么着急忙慌地见面，肯定是要做什么见不得光的政治交易了。这个骗不了明眼人。
首先是日本人着急了。他们态度强硬地要求美国人必须告诉他们奥巴马和习近平谈话的所有内容。美国人也严肃地告诉他们，总统本人会向他们坦白交待，请日本人少安毋躁。这等于在向日本人保证，美国不会出卖日本这个盟友。我感觉日本人肯定不是那么放心。
习总书记也是怪怪的。放着风景优美的庄园不住，非要到旅游点上找一个旅馆住。据说是为了防止窃听，也就是说他承认这次有很多的猫腻怕人知道。这种偷偷摸摸的做派，和他倡导的什么新型大国关系，似乎不太匹配。结合前段时间韩国总统偷偷摸摸和奥巴马散步密谈的故事，可以推断这次的偷偷摸摸和朝鲜半岛局势有很大的关系。
这次秘密政治交易会集中在什么问题上呢？从习近平的角度来看，他在刚上台就表现出强硬的姿态，在南中国海和东中国海同时掀起民族主义的高潮。而日本正在联合南海各国形成统一战线。习近平在国内政治上得了分，可是他不能同时在南海和东海开战。甚至在东海开战也没有胜算。所以他正在下不来台。
奥巴马也有他的难处。北朝鲜最近闹得挺邪火，一会儿核试验，一会儿放导弹，据说还能打到美国。尽管专家们说金三胖没有这个能力，但这不算数。如果美国介入了亚洲的战争，中国自己可以不使用核武器。但作为小流氓的金三胖可就不一定了。他没有，中国不会给他吗？这样美国就不好办了。所以解决北朝鲜的问题是奥巴马的难题，是奥巴马比习近平更着急的原因，也是日本最着急的原因。
好在习近平提前作出了和解的姿态。公开对北朝鲜实施了制裁，而且还拒绝了金三胖访问北京。真的还是假的不知道，反正对美国的媒体来说是看见了救命的稻草。这就迫使奥巴马不得不请求习近平的援助，并且为此要向习近平付出代价。
双方都估计这次匆忙的会面不会立即产生效果。因为美国不会放弃日本和亚洲再平衡的战略，否则就等于放弃了亚洲而沦为二等国家了。如此奥巴马将成为美国的罪人，他不会傻到这种程度。他临阵换将，把态度强硬著称的苏珊莱斯提上来担任国家安全顾问。正说明了他的决心。
而习近平也是退无可退。他掌权半年多来什么也没做，只做了这一件挑动国际紧张局势的事情。只在煽动民族主义上得了一分。如果没有了下文，反倒在外交上陷入困境。他的位子也就快到头了。所以其实他比奥巴马更着急。
奥巴马可以说服日本承认钓鱼台群岛是有争议的领土。代价是安倍内阁只能以下台告终。好在日本是民主政体，换个首脑不是太大的问题。而习近平说服金正恩放弃核武器政策，难度就大得多。结果可能是金家政权崩溃，朝鲜半岛统一。这样习近平就成了中共的罪人。这不是他们愿意看到的，所以他不可能执行这个条件。
从以上的分析可以看出，虽然双方都很紧张，很认真，但这次的会面只能是假模假样的增进私人感情，并且私下里开出条件以后再慢慢地谈。最终结果虽然可以肯定，就是双方都不愿意发生战争，但是怎样才能解开这个双方制造的死结呢？我们拭目以待。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS130607CApresidentialtalks.mp3
（撰写并录音于2013年6月7日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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