Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A796-W506
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A796-W506
Release
Date: December 15, 2013
发布日：2013年12月15日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XCVII): From Jang Song-thaek's Execution in North
Korea to the Chinese Political System Now
标题：《中国的出路》之九十七：从金正恩的姑父张成泽被杀谈今日中国的政治体系 -- 魏京生
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The
Way Out for China (Part XCVII): From Jang Song-thaek's Execution in North Korea
to the Chinese Political System Now
--
Wei Jingsheng
There
has been a lot going on in Eastern Asia recently. One item that received much attention and shocked the
international media was that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, the third
generation of the Kim Dynasty, arrested his uncle Jang Song-thaek and then
executed him immediately, along with several Jang cronies. Two vice-premiers of North Korea fled
to China for refuge.
This
Uncle Jang was not an ordinary person.
He was not only Kim's uncle, but also Kim's mentor and even a regent who
helped Kim Jong-un to take over power.
Before the death of Kim Jong-il, Kim Jong-un's father, Jang already
ranked second only after the most powerful figure, Kim Jong-il. His special position gave him a
favorable position to ensure Kim Jong-un's smooth accession to power during the
struggle for the throne right after the sudden death of Kim Jong-il.
Yet
in less than two years, this regent and close relative uncle was quickly
arrested and then executed. There
are rumors reported about his miserable death. Some said he was killed by machine guns, while the South
Korean media said that he was stripped and then thrown to vicious dogs that ate
him. In any event, his execution
revealed deep hatred, close to "eat his flesh, drink his blood" as
described by (the ancient Chinese warrior) Yue Fei.
Why
is there so much hatred? It is due
to power struggle. When this power
struggle involves significant interests, even one's life, the extensiveness of
the tragedy is unimaginable to the common people. Even one who is not familiar with history would know from
the drama of the past the extent of this kind of tragic struggle. Not only in ancient China, even in
modern China it has been the same: look at how the Communist leaders Liu
Shaoqi, Lin Biao, and Peng Dehuai died, under circumstances not much better
than in North Korea.
For
all authoritarian regimes, power will be as big as possible, without much
limit. Such power without limit
includes large stakes, big ambitions, deep camouflage, and mutual distrust,
also without limit. Under these
circumstances, not only can the intention of harm result in extreme cruelty,
but also the defense can result in a struggle of life and death. Without the normal constraints, the
extreme power itself causes extreme callousness. The history of human civilization for the last thousands of
years proves this simple truth.
In
ancient times, people invented the lineage inheritance system in order to avoid
internal bloodshed due to power struggles. That concept was very advanced at the time; to a great
extent it solved the legitimacy of power.
Thus to a great extent it quelled the power infighting, stabilized
internal security, and enhanced unity.
The inherited monarchies were in a favorable position during the
competition for survival, and gradually phased out the political systems that
lagged behind.
This
lineage was not so elaborate in Western history, but obvious in the Chinese
history of the thousands of years of the pre-Qin Dynasty eras. At that time, the Chinese technical
level was not the most advanced, but its political system was. So within less than 3,000 years, it was
able to develop from the Xia Dynasty ruling over a very small portion of the
population, to the Qin Dynasty ruling over the majority. During the course of this history, the
dynasties mercilessly eliminated over 90 percent of neighboring countries.
During
this period, the biggest difference between China as a nation and other
countries was the evolution of the power succession system. Its greatest advantage was the internal
stability and unity. Although it
was still unable to put an end to brutal power struggles, it was able to reduce
the power struggles to a very small number of people, and thus reduce the
social unrest due to these power struggles to a very small range. In comparison to countries that had
unstable sources of legitimacy, this was a great long-term advantage.
Now
we have come to the modern era, and a new system has emerged that is different
from the inherited source of power; the democratic electoral system. Even the ancient monarchs and scholars
knew that "if one wins the hearts of the people one shall get the world,
while if one loses the hearts of the people one shall lose the
world." However, in the past
this process of winning hearts was often long and accompanied by a turbulent
society as a whole. Democracy
solves this problem, with regular direct elections for those officials who
"won hearts of the people" to take over power, thus avoiding the
ruthlessness and volatility of the transfer of power while maintaining popular
support.
Unfortunately,
our Chinese people 's political modernization effort that began one hundred
years ago was not successful, and eventually evolved into a deformation of the
old regime learned from the West: the one-party dictatorship of the Communist
Party. On the issue of
transferring power, one-party dictatorship preserves neither a relatively
stable lineage inheritance, nor the electoral system among the whole of
society. Instead, it leads to an
even more unstable state somewhere between elections among small cliques and
lineage inheritance.
After
Deng Xiaoping came to power, he wanted a system that would be able to maintain
a one-party dictatorship, yet without violent infighting. The result was very unsuccessful, the
infighting of the Communist regime in the 1980's eventually resulted in the use
of tanks and machine guns to kill the Chinese people. The legitimacy of the Chinese Communist regime nearly
collapsed. As a result, the
Communist regime had to go backwards, to the inter-generational appointments
without a specific system, which is even less convincing than the inheritance
system of lineage.
However,
the awareness level of the Chinese people has not receded to the level of North
Korea, thus a direct lineage inheritance of power already had no
legitimacy. But now how much
legitimacy does this system of half-inheritance have? This is the biggest crisis of the Chinese Communist regime
now.
As
the old Chinese saying goes: "A person cannot stand without a good
credit." A regime even more
so "cannot stand without a good credit." This lack of credit refers to the legitimacy of the power
source. There is a very widespread
sentence heard now in China: "The decrees can not get out of ZhongNanHai
(the headquarter location of the Communist regime)". This sentence vividly describes the
lack of legitimacy of power for the Communist regime, and also illustrates the
root of almost all the unsolvable problems in China now.
Not
only is it that the common Chinese do not believe in the Communist Party, even
the officials at various levels of the Communist Party do not believe in the
Communist Party. Thus they
hold their own policies and carrying them out fragmentally, while sending their
children abroad for safety. This
country is already unable to maintain the overall interests. Such a state and society is not far
from big chaos.
Now
there are still many people who firmly believe that, under the premise of
ensuring one-party dictatorship, Xi Jinping can reform the political system and
solve the trust issue from the people, thus restoring the legitimacy of
political power. Some are even
clamoring the bandits' theory of "who conquers the world, shall have the
world." But it is of no use.
One
hundred years ago, when most Chinese people still thought the inheritance
system was the most legitimate system, it was indeed inevitable for the
democratic revolution to be unsuccessful.
However, as of now most Chinese think inheritance is not a legitimate
system, regardless whether it is a true inheritance system or a disguised
inheritance system in the form of inter-generational appointments. Both inevitably will be
unsuccessful. This situation is
sort of like the stock market, where most people's perception becomes truth and
the last word. Any quibble becomes
nonsense; a reform or revolution will follow according to the view of the
majority.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS131213ChinaWayOut97NKoreaExecutions.mp3
(Written
and recorded on December 13, 2013.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A796-W506
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A796-W506
Release
Date: December 15, 2013
发布日：2013年12月15日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XCVII): From Jang Song-thaek's Execution in North
Korea to the Chinese Political System Now
标题：《中国的出路》之九十七：从金正恩的姑父张成泽被杀谈今日中国的政治体系 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2013/report2013-12/WeiJS131215ChinaWayOut97NKoreaExecutionsA796-W506.htm
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《中国的出路》之九十七：从金正恩的姑父张成泽被杀谈今日中国的政治体系
-- 魏京生
亚洲东部最近非常热闹。其中最受到大家关注的，也最让国际媒体震惊的，就是北朝鲜的金家第三代独裁者一家子，合伙把他们的姑夫张成泽抓起来然后迅速地杀掉。同时被杀掉的还有张成泽的几名亲信，另外的两名副总理逃到了中国避难。
这个张成泽不是一般的人物。他不仅是金正恩的姑夫，而且是辅佐金正恩上台的顾命大臣。在金正日没死之前，张成泽就已经是仅次于金正日的最有权势的人物。他的这种特殊的地位，使得他在金正日突然死亡之后的继位者之争中占据了有利地位，保证了金正恩能够顺利上台。
可是还不到两年。这位身兼顾命大臣和近亲属的姑夫大人就被迅速地抓起来然后杀掉了。据说还死得很惨，有说用机关枪扫射，还有韩国媒体说是脱光了扔给一群恶狗吃掉了。总之表现出仇恨深重，就差像岳飞说的那样，吃他的肉、喝他的血了。
为什么有这么大的仇恨呢？权力之争。当这种权力之争牵涉到重大利害，甚至是身家性命的时候，它的惨烈程度往往是一般小民百姓难以想象的。即使不熟读历史，看看古装电视剧也会十分清楚这种斗争的惨烈程度。不但古代，就是现代中国也一样：看看刘少奇、林彪、彭德怀怎么死的，也不比北朝鲜差多少。
但凡是专制的体制，权力就会大到了极限而且还没有约束。这包括牵涉的利害也大到了极限，野心也大到了极限；伪装也大到了极限，互相不信任也到达了极限。这种情况下，不仅是害人之心可以导致残忍，防人之心也同样可以导致生死之争。没有正常的约束，极端的权力本身就造成冷酷无情。几千年的人类文明史证明了这个简单的真理。
远古时期，人们为了解决权力转移所带来的自相残杀，发明了血统继承制。这在当时非常先进，极大程度地解决了权力来源的合法性。因此极大程度地平息了内部权威之争，稳定了内部加强了团结。因而在生存竞争中处于有利的地位，并且逐渐淘汰了那些政治体制落后的政体。
这在西方历史中语焉不详，但在中国先秦时代几千年的历史中却非常明显。当时政治制度先进的华夏国家，在技术水平并不是最先进的情况下，用了不到三千年的时间，就从只占人口极小部分的夏代，发展到秦朝时占人口的大多数。这之中毫不留情地淘汰了百分之九十以上的国家。
在这段政治体制进化的时期中，华夏国家和非华夏国家之间的最大区别，就是权力继承制度的进化。内部的稳定和团结是它最大的优势。虽然仍不能杜绝残酷的权力斗争，但把这种权力斗争缩小到了很小的范围内，把权力斗争给社会带来的动荡减小到很小的范围内。相对于其它合法性来源不稳定的国家，这就是极大的长期优势。
历史发展到现代，出现了一种不同于继承制的新的权力来源，这就是民主选举制。古代的君主和学者们尚且懂得；得民心者得天下，失民心者失天下。但是这个过程往往很长，而且伴随着整个社会的动荡不安。民主制解决了这个问题，定期的直接选举使得得民心者接掌权力，从而避免了权力转移带来的残酷无情和动荡不安。
遗憾的是，咱们中国人一百年前开始的政治现代化努力没有成功，最终演化成了从西方学来的旧制度的变形。这就是共产党的一党专政制度。在权力继承上它既不是相对稳定的血统继承，也不是全社会范围内的选举制；而是介于小集团内选举和血统继承之间的、更不稳定的形态。
邓小平上台后想搞一个能维护一党专政，而又不是内斗剧烈的制度。结果很不成功，八十年代的内斗最终发展到了动用坦克机枪屠杀人民。中共政权的合法性降到了几乎崩溃的水平。结果是只好倒退，回到了还不如血统继承制度的、没有制度的隔代指定。
这是因为中国人的认知水平还没有倒退到北朝鲜的程度，直接的血统继承已经没有了合法性。但是现在这种半吊子的继承制有多少合法性呢？这就是中共最大的危机。
古语说得好：“人无信不立”。国家就更是无信不立。这个无信，就是权力来源有没有合法性。有一句流传很广的话，叫做“政令不出中南海”。它很生动地描述了权力缺乏合法性的状况，也说明了中国现在几乎所有无法解决的问题的根源。
不但老百姓不相信共产党，就是共产党的各级官员也不相信共产党。所以各自为政，政出多门，国家已经无法维持整体的利益。这样的国家和社会距离大乱已经不远了。
现在还有不少人坚定地相信习近平能改革政治体制，在保证一党专政的前提下解决人民的信任问题，也就是政治权力合法性的问题。甚至有人叫嚣什么“打天下、坐天下”这种土匪的理论。但是这都没什么用。
一百年前，当大多数中国人还认为继承制最合法的时候，民主革命不成功是必然的。在现在大多数人都认为继承制不合法的时候，无论是继承制还是变相的隔代指定，不成功也是必然的。就像股票市场一样，大多数人的看法就是道理，而且是硬道理。任何狡辩都没有意义，只能按照大多数人的看法改革或者革命。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS131213ChinaWayOut97NKoreaExecutions.mp3
（撰写并录音于2013年12月13日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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