Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A799-W509
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A799-W509
Release
Date: January 5, 2014
发布日：2014年1月5日
Topic:
My New Year's Speech -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：2014新年致辞 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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My
New Year's Speech
--
Wei Jingsheng
The
new year of 2014 is arriving. I
want to review the past year and outlook for the new year with everyone.
In
the past year, there were many events happening in China. I think there were two that were most
noteworthy. The first was the
trial of Bo Xilai. The second was
the fact that Xi Jinping turned left.
These two things had and will have profound impact, with inside stories,
and thus are worthy to be reviewed here.
Some
people may think that the trial of Bo Xilai was just the fall of a corrupt
official, although a quite high ranking one. They might think that this trial of Bo does not have
profound and far-reaching significance despite some inside stories. But this interpretation is not
true. There are others who say
that the trial of Bo is the largest political event in China since the fall of
the Gang of Four. Although this
statement has some exaggeration, it is not too far from the reality.
Since
Bo Xilai was sent away to Chongqing when he lost his qualification to compete
for a higher position in the central government, he had inured himself from
future trials and made excessive actions beyond the normal that showed
originality. He tried hard to
fight for the hearts of people to regain his eligibility for the higher
position, which should not be rated as effectless. Bo Xilai attacked the unity of police and gangsters which
was hated most by the average person.
He also took steps to take care of the livelihood of average people in
Chongqing. Indeed, these practices
really expanded the leftist camp and also had a major impact on the bigwig
capitalist politics of the Communist regime.
However,
on one hand, Bo Xilai's return to the road of Mao Zedong was in the end
impossible to be recognized by majority of the people, and on the other hand he
lost the recognition of the elite bigwig class and attracted a lot of political
opponents. This gave Bo's biggest
political opponent the opportunity to set up a trap to put him away. Now we see this political opponent very
clearly: he is the representative of the bureaucratic capitalist class in
China, Wei Jiabao, the former Premier (who just stepped down one year ago).
In
modern China, there is some slight difference between the concept of the
bureaucratic capitalists and the bigwig elite of capitalists. Within the bureaucratic capitalist
class, there is a portion that were able to rise to high positions due to the
shielding and promotion of their families, rather than complete self reliance
and skills. This portion is the
bigwig elite of the capitalists, which are now often called the "Red
Second Generation of the Communists" by the average Chinese. This bigwig capitalist class is rapidly
becoming the core of the whole bureaucratic capitalist class.
The
reason that Wen Jiabao did not want to attack Bo Xilai directly himself during
his own tenure as the premier is that he wanted to throw this hot potato to Xi
Jinping who was on his way to the paramount position. Wen Jiabao had two intentions in doing so. One is that he was not willing, nor had
the capacity to offend the core of the bigwig elite class. The other was that he wanted to take
this opportunity to split "the Red Second Generation" and thus
disturb the political situation in a way similar to catching the fish by
disturbing the water. In the Chinese
essay "the Thirty-six Stratagems", this one ranked 28th: "Remove
the ladder when the enemy has ascended to the roof", to make sure that the
enemy will not be able to escape.
Sure
enough, as soon as Xi Jinping came to power, he faced the dilemma in the case
of Bo Xilai. When Xi came to the
succession, he was more powerful than Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, and even more
than Jiang Zemin. This is because
he had two pillars of support. One
was the support of the clique of Jiang Zemin in the older bureaucratic
class. The other was the support
of the so-called "Red Second Generation" families. If any of these two pillars were in
trouble, Xi Jinping would be in trouble.
From
the perspective of Xi Jinping, a trial of Bo Xilai would make a lot of people
in the "Red Second Generation" unhappy, not because they approved of
Bo, but because coming from the same background they too would be threatened,
to the degree like "when the rabbit is hunted down, the foxes are
sad" as well. In addition, a
fairly large proportion of the people on the left side and poor would not be
happy. It would also make a lot of
older bureaucrats who had close relationships with Bo Xilai anxious. However, not putting Bo Xilai on trial
would make the intellectuals on the right and some other poor people unhappy,
as well as many people within the bureaucratic class who were worried about
squared accounts from others.
Indeed, this trap set up by Wen Jiabao was very well placed and quite
vicious.
Xi
Jinping's method to cope with this dilemma was to raise high his right hand to
put Bo Xilai on trial, and then let it fall gently. Right after that, Xi took a series of measures to buy the
leftists and "the Red Second Generation". The most well known action was that he held an unusual big ceremony
to commemorate the former deputy Prime Minister Xi Zhongxun (i.e. his own
father), making it a big gathering of "the Red Second Generation" as
a way to reassure the worrisome bigwigs.
However,
whether Xi Jinping's method will work long-term and be effective is hard to
say. The fact that two former
friends started fighting, even punching each other, recently during their
"Red Second Generation" gathering at the reunion of the famous school
in Beijing, illustrates the Chinese saying "three feet of ice cannot came
from one chilly day", similar to the Western "Rome was not built in a
day." Xi's reassurances may
not be effective, or at least not effective to all people. Now the buddies of Bo Xilai have
started to form political parties following the way of the democracy
activists. This activity is an
indication that the whole drama has just started, instead of coming to an end.
While
Xi Jinping raised his right hand to fight against leftists, he also raised his
left fist to attack the right wing in China. The most famous action is to attack cyber VIP's in an
attempt to annihilate the Internet leaders and gain control of the Internet,
the most free media in China that can lead the trend of public opinion.
Unfortunately,
the hearts of people have always been difficult to control. While one could attend on one thing,
one will not be able to control others.
In particular, with the situation in China now that the bureaucratic
capitalist class has done all the devil things, the Chinese regime does not have
credibility. It is impossible to
reverse control public opinion.
Not to mention the government itself, even the intellectual elite of
self-claiming representatives of civil society on the right was immediately
cast aside by the public once they spoke for the capitalist class.
As
the saying goes: those who win the hearts of the people shall win the
world. Clearly, Xi Jinping
understood this truth, although his methods were diametrically opposite and
missed the main point. Bo Xilai
also understood this truth, yet his methods were diametrically opposite and
missed the main point as well.
What is the main point?
That is the common aspiration of the people now. What is the common aspiration of the
people? There are many of them
speaking of truth, but it could be summarized in one sentence: institutional
reforms of the system and reasonable sharing of the wealth in China.
Unfortunately,
from the actions taken by Xi Jinping in the past year, we know that even if he
understands this truth, he does not have the capability to win hearts. His sway in the past year has not
improved his credibility and authority; instead it has made people on both the
right and left dissatisfied with a lot of complaints. Peaceful evolution of political reform in China has already
become impossible.
What
is coming up in the new year of 2014 is the revolution. Either Xi Jinping and Wang Qishan take
painstaking measures to remediate the bureaucratic capitalist class in China,
then there is the possibility of gain people's hearts through taking care of
people's livelihood and gradually reforming the political system, or the
bureaucratic capitalist class will have a coup to change the leadership, which
will increase the pressure and temperature within the giant barrel of gunpowder,
until the moment of explosion.
However,
the last and most likely possibility is that the Xi Jinping clique has to make
compromises to the bureaucratic capitalist class, which soon will lead to
full-scale unrest in China. Given
the fact that members of the bureaucratic capitalist class who understand the
situation in China best have been emigrating out of China one after another,
the upheaval in China is hardly to be avoided.
I
hope all kinds of friends get prepared for the arrival of an era of great
turmoil. For our pro-democracy
friends, our task will be to shorten the time of unrest and to reduce bloodshed
during the turmoil in China.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS131227newyear2014.mp3
(Written
and recorded on December 27, 2013.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A799-W509
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A799-W509
Release
Date: January 5, 2014
发布日：2014年1月5日
Topic:
My New Year's Speech -- Wei Jingsheng
标题：2014新年致辞 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2014/report2014-01/WeiJS140105newyear2014A799-W509.htm
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《2014新年致辞》
-- 魏京生
公元二零一四年新年就到了。过去的一年都有什么值得回顾，新的一年又有什么需要展望的，我和大家一起探讨一下。
在过去的一年里国内的大事不少。我认为最值得大家注意的有两件事。第一件是薄熙来被审判；第二件是习近平向左转。这两件事都具有深远的影响和很深的内幕，值得我和大家一起回顾。
有的朋友可能觉得，薄熙来被审判，不就是一个贪官落马，最多也不过就是官大了一点儿--这没什么深远不深远，顶多就是有点儿内幕。其实不然。有人甚至说这是四人帮倒台以来最大的政治事件，虽然夸张了一些，但还不是特别夸张。
薄熙来自从被外放到重庆，失去了争夺大位的资格，就卧薪尝胆，独出心裁地搞了一些出格的动作。他企图争取民心，重新夺回资格。这些作为也不能说没有效果。他打击了老百姓最痛恨的黑白两道相结合，还照顾了老百姓的民生。这些作法确实扩大了左派的阵营，对中共的权贵资产阶级政治造成了不小的冲击。
但是一方面它的重回毛泽东的路线不可能得到多数人民的认可；另一方面他又失去了权贵阶级的认可，招来了众多的政敌。这就给了他最大的政敌以机会，做了个局把他拿下。这个政敌现在大家都已经看得很清楚了，就是官僚资产阶级的代表人物，前总理温家宝。
在现代的中国，官僚资产阶级和权贵资产阶级这两个概念稍微有一些区别。在官僚资产阶级中有一部分不完全靠自己的努力，也靠家族的庇荫和提拔而官至高位。这就是被老百姓称之为红二代的权贵资产阶级。这个权贵资产阶级正在迅速地成为官僚资产阶级的核心。
温家宝之所以不在他的任期内打击薄熙来，而在任期将要结束时把这个烫手的山芋扔给习近平，其用意有两层。一层是不愿意也没能力得罪权贵们的核心层；另一层用意是正可以借此机会分裂红二代，搅乱政局继续浑水摸鱼。这在三十六计里叫做上屋抽梯，让你下不来台。
果然，习近平刚一接班，就在薄熙来案上面临着进退两难的局面。习近平一接班就比胡温甚至比江泽民更强势。他的支柱来自两大方面：一个支柱是江泽民老官僚集团的支持，另一个支柱就是所谓的红二代大家族们的支持。这两个支柱中的任何一个出问题，日子都不好过。
从习近平的角度，审判薄熙来不仅会使红二代中很多人不高兴甚至兔死狐悲，占人口相当大比例的左派和穷人也不高兴。此外还包括旧官僚中很多和薄熙来关系密切的人也会惶惶不可终日。
而不审判薄熙来则会让右派知识分子们和另一部分穷人不高兴，其中还包括官僚资产阶级中很多担心被清算的人在内。温家宝这个局可以说做得很到位，也相当恶毒。
习近平的应对方法，可以说是举起他的右手审判薄熙来，但只是轻轻地落下，然后又采取一系列的措施收买左派和红二代。他最著名的行动就是破格举办了纪念前副总理习仲勋的大会，把它搞成了红二代的大聚会，给一些忧心忡忡的权贵们吃了一颗定心丸。
但是不是就能够长期有效，还不好说。最近发生的北京名校红二代聚会老拳相向的故事，就说明冰冻三尺非一日之寒。定心丸的效果不一定有效，至少不是对所有人都有效。薄熙来的死党们开始效仿民运人士组党，就说明故事刚刚开始，并没有进入尾声。
习近平在举起他的右手打击左派的同时；也举起了他的左手打击右派。最著名的动作就是打击网络大V，妄图一举歼灭网络领袖，控制网络舆论这个当今中国最自由也最能引导潮流的舆论阵地。
可惜民心所向从来就很难控制，按下葫芦浮起了瓢。特别是在官僚资产阶级作恶多端的情况下，政府没有了信誉，逆向控制舆论根本就不可能。别说官方了，就是自称代表民间的右派知识精英们，一旦替资产阶级说话也立刻遭到舆论的唾弃。
俗话说：得民心者得天下。习近平显然懂这个道理，只是作法南辕北辙，不得要领。薄熙来也懂这个道理，也是作法南辕北辙，不得要领。什么是要领呢？这就是现在的民心所向。什么是民心所向？说起来道理千千万，归根结底就是一句话；改革体制，平均财富。
遗憾的是，从这一年来习近平的作为来看，即使他明白这个道理，也没有这个能力。他的左右摇摆不仅没有提高其信任度和权威，反倒使左右都不满意，怨声载道。和平演变的政治体制改革在中国已经不可能了。
明年的大事就是革命。或者是习近平、王岐山痛下杀手整治了官僚资产阶级，然后才可能从照顾民生入手争取民心，逐渐进行政治体制的改革。或者是官僚资产阶级政变换人，继续增加火药桶的压力和温度，直到爆炸的一瞬间。
最后一种可能，也是最可能发生的事情就是习近平集团不得不向官僚资产阶级妥协，然后迅速走向全面的动乱。从最了解中国国情的官僚资产阶级纷纷移民国外来看，大动乱几乎很难避免。
希望各方面的朋友作好准备，迎接大动乱年代的到来。摆在民运朋友们面前的任务就是：如何缩短动乱年代的时间，如何减少动乱时期的血腥味。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2013/WeiJS131227newyear2014.mp3
（撰写并录音于2013年12月27日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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