Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A826-W526
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A826-W526
Release
Date: June 29, 2014
发布日：2014年6月29日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XCIX): The Future of China Can Only Be Democratic
-- Wei Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之九十九：中国的前途只能是民主 -- 魏京生
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Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
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The
Way Out for China (Part XCIX): The Future of China Can Only Be Democratic
--
Wei Jingsheng
Most
people now believe that the end of the Communist dictatorship is inevitable,
while the Xi Jinping clique of the Chinese Communist Party is striking hard to
carefully prevent any changes. Not
only are they arresting dissidents, even the Buddhist masters cannot be
spared. This is their way of
trying to salvage the upcoming sinking of their Communist ship. If we observe history carefully, we
know that this is a sign before its collapse.
Now
people's concern is not whether the Communist dictatorship will collapse, but
what will happen after its collapse.
Ever since many years ago, the employed writers and cultural agents of
the Communist regime have been promoting an argument called "Without the
Communist leadership, who can govern China"? In fact, this argument is the improved tune of the special
"Asian values" argument given by Communist leader Jiang Zemin. It implies that the Chinese do not have
other ways besides being slaves for the ruling party.
However,
except for a few racists, not many people believe that fallacy. But indeed people do care about who
would be leading China after the Chinese Communist Party regime, or what will
the way out for China. The
relatively consistent desire is that China should take the road to
democracy. But there are still a
lot of people who worry that China will not get on the road to democracy, but
rather some new wrong road.
At
least now we cannot rule out this possibility. That is because no one is certain about what changes in
China will occur in what way and happen under the lead of which kind of people
and what political forces. The
process of change will largely determine the outcome.
Now
the Communist regime is so afraid of people commemorating the June 4 Massacre
in Beijing in 1989. The regime is
so scared to the degree that even the sound of wind and birds make it paranoid
and cause panic, that it treats even the grass and trees as soldiers against
itself. It is very afraid of a
peaceful evolution similar to that of the former Soviet Union happening in
China. There are also some intellectual
elite aligning themselves with the tune of the Communist regime, claiming a
reform within the Communist system is better. However, fewer and fewer people believe these lies. That is because the Communist regime
has been stating continually that they will never reform the political system
of a one-party dictatorship. This
fact is a big slap in the face of these "intellectual elites" who
tried to brown their noses with the Communist regime.
In
fact, the model of the 1989 democracy movement in China is a model of the
people's petitioning to lead to a peaceful evolution, which probably is the
model with least cost. Under the
impetus of the whole society, the then leader of the country taking the
initiative to change the political system would begin the institutional
transformation of the least cost without bloodshed and social unrest.
Of
course, one cannot avoid some cost in this institutional transformation. It is like when a deep discount is
already given, one should not expect to take the goods without any payment --
that is something that would not happen.
The propaganda of the Communist regime purposefully mixed the issues
together and indeed confused some people.
The people in the former Soviet Union obviously had a different
understanding. The Russian
Communist Party that still exists today understands even more.
Another
possibility that many people hope for is a government coup or a military coup
in China. That is because the
society would not produce as much unrest and the economy would not be as
greatly affected. That route would
be just like that of Ceausescu of Romania, where a small number of senior
officials would be paying for the price of bloodshed. This price is not large and is very fair.
Another
possible outcome is the rise of warlords and chaos in the society that people
are worried about. Now, as the
Chinese central authority has reached its lowest point, it is possible that
people's uprising and local rebellion might happen any time. Warlord politics or the related mob
politics will inevitably result in social and economic destruction. That means paying a much higher price
than did the Soviet Union during its collapse.
Decades
of warlord fighting in China and the resulting invasion of foreign enemies in
the past century have caused the suffering of the Chinese people and the
decline of the nation. This memory
is still fresh. People's fears are
justified. Why didn't the
democratic revolution succeed at that time and China moved towards a warlord
period instead? Writer Mr. Lu Xun
stated it appropriately: that was due to people not having reached that wisdom
yet. He felt sorrow for the
unfortunate people and anger at them for not striving for the better. The premise of people not striving then
was because they did not know what to strive for.
After
decades of education and inspiration, most of the Chinese intellectual elite
are increasingly recognizing what to strive for. Some urban residents who are better informed also know. But most of the people in the countryside
and industrial and mining enterprises did not know what the others were
striving for. Even the students
petitioning in the cities in 1989 did not know. These students claimed that they supported the Central
Committee of the Communist Party and kneeled to it without a sense of
direction. This is one of the
reasons that the whole society did not have a direction then.
The
fundamental reason for the failure of the Chinese Revolution of 1911 and the
failure of the 1989 Democracy Movement in China is that the people had not
reached wisdom with clear goals yet.
When the revolutionists themselves even did not know what to do, it was
like a blind person riding a blind horse.
How could we expect success?
Thus, to inspire and to educate the people, to create the public opinion
of revolution, is a prerequisite for the success of the revolution.
Perhaps
at the beginning of the revolution, there will be a short period of separatist
states. But with current public
opinion, or say under the premise of people's desire, will we have what we had
during the warlord period when ignorant people were dominated for a long
period? The issue is not that no
one wants to be a local emperor type tyrant, but the conditions for one to be
that kind of tyrants will not be there anymore.
If
someone insists to be the tyrant, he will not have the support of the people
and will be eliminated by his competitors who follow public opinion. In an environment when the whole
society wants to have a rule of law and democracy, the major trend will
inevitably push the society to move towards democracy. By then, the big tide of democracy
would rise with mighty force -- those who follow will have prosperity, while
those who resist will perish.
Those who dominate their separate states naturally will compete to
choose a rule of law and democracy.
The ones acting a little slower might even get eliminated.
So
it is wrong for these pessimists to comment on the future from what we had in
the past. Such pessimists depart
from the current social reality.
They have not noticed the changes of social thought in the last three decades. They do not include the effect of
social psychology and public opinion in their evaluation. Those who only evaluate the situation
from the intensified repression of the Communist regime and think the Chinese
people are still who they were several decades ago are making bookworm types of
mistakes.
Democracy
is not perfect and the rule of law is not a panacea. But they are indeed much better than dictatorship. By comparing, people recognize the
advantages of democracy. Their
attitude will be difficult to change.
Now the Communist Party in China is still attempting to save its
authoritarian regime, which is equal to digging its own grave. This attempt is foolish on the part of
people like Xi Jinping, who are not saving a way of exit for the Communists.
To
hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2014/WeiJS140520ChinaWayOut99future.mp3
(Written
on May 19 and recorded on May 20, 2014.
Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)
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中文版
Wei
Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A826-W526
魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A826-W526
Release
Date: June 29, 2014
发布日：2014年6月29日
Topic:
The Way Out for China (Part XCIX): The Future of China Can Only Be Democratic
-- Wei Jingsheng
标题：《中国的出路》之九十九：中国的前途只能是民主 -- 魏京生
Original
Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)
此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）
如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:
http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2014/report2014-06/WeiJS140629ChinaWayOut99futureA826-W526.htm
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《中国的出路》之九十九：中国的前途只能是民主
-- 魏京生
现在大多数人都相信，中共的下台是不可避免的。而中共的习近平集团正在严防狠打，不仅抓捕异议人士，甚至连佛教大师也不放过，试图以此来挽救即将沉没的破船。仔细观察历史可知，这就是垮台前的征兆。
现在大家关心的已经不是中共是否垮台，而是垮台之后会怎么样。多年前中共的御用文人和文化特务们已经在宣传一种论调，叫做“没有了中共谁能够治理中国”？这其实就是江泽民的亚洲特殊价值观的改进型，好像中国人除了给人家做奴隶就没有别的出路了。
遗憾的是，除了少数的种族主义者以外,没有多少人相信这一套谬论。但是大家也确实关心共产党之后谁来领导中国，或者说中国的出路在哪里。比较一致的愿望是中国应该走民主之路。但还是有很多人担心中国走不上民主之路，而是走上了别的什么邪路。
至少现在还不能排除这种可能性。因为谁也不能肯定中国的变局以什么方式发生，在什么人和政治势力主导下发生。变化的过程将很大程度上决定着结果。
中共现在害怕人们纪念八九年的大屠杀，吓到了风声鹤唳、草木皆兵的地步。生怕在中国发生前苏联那样的和平演变。某些知识精英们也在符合中共的论调，说还是体制内改革比较好。但是相信这些谎言的人越来越少了，因为中共自己不断地声明，他们绝不会改革一党专政的政治体制。这就搧了马屁精英们一记大大的耳光。
实际上八九年的模式，也就是人民请愿导致和平演变的模式，可能是代价最小的模式了。在全社会的推动下，由当时的国家领导人主动改变政治体制，没有流血，没有社会的动荡，是最便宜的体制转型。
当然了，体制转型所必须付出的代价避免不了。就像是人家已经给你打了折了，想不付一点钱就拿走货，这种好事多半不会发生。共产党的宣传把两笔不同的账搅浑了说，确实迷惑了不少的人。苏联人民显然有不同的理解，至今仍存在的俄国共产党理解得更深刻一些。
还有一种可能性被很多人所期望。这就是宫廷政变或者军事政变。社会不会因此产生动荡，经济不会受到太大的影响。只是像罗马尼亚的齐奥塞斯库那样，有少数高官显宦们要付出流血的代价。这个代价也不大，而且也很公平。
另一种可能性，就是大家所担心的军阀混战，天下大乱。现在的中央权威已经接近最低点了，随时都可能发生人民起义或者地方造反。军阀政治或者必然会产生的暴民政治，对社会和经济的破坏都不可避免。那也就是要付出比苏联更大的代价。
上一个世纪的几十年的军阀混战，以及由此造成的外敌入侵，所造成的中国人民痛苦和国家衰败，至今还记忆犹新。人们担心是有道理的。为什么民主革命不能成功而走向了军阀混战呢？鲁迅先生说得贴切，就是当时的民智不开--哀其不幸，怒其不争。不争的前提是老百姓不知道争什么。
几十年的教育和启发，大部分的知识精英们越来越认识到该争什么了。一部分的城市居民信息灵通，也知道该争什么了。但是大多数的工矿企业和农村居民并不知道你们在争什么。甚至八九年城市里请愿的学生们也不知道在争什么，还在那儿拥护党中央下跪请愿，完全没有方向。这也是社会整体没有方向的一个原因。
辛亥革命的失败，八九年民主运动的失败，根本的原因就是民智未开，没有明确的目标。就是革命者本身都不知道自己该干什么，犹如盲人骑瞎马。怎么能成功呢？所以启发教育人民，造成革命的舆论，是革命成功的首要条件。
也许在革命兴起之时，会有短时间的割据状态。但是在现在的社会舆论也就是民心所向的前提下，有可能像军阀时代那样长期统治愚昧的人民吗？问题不是没有人想当土皇帝，而是没有当土皇帝的条件了。
如果有人硬要当土皇帝，他必然得不到人民的支持，会被那些顺应民意的竞争对手消灭。在全社会都希望有民主法治的环境里，大的趋势必然推动社会走向民主。那个时候就是民主大潮浩浩荡荡，顺之者昌，逆之者亡。割据者们自然会竞相选择民主法治，慢一点恐怕都会被淘汰。
所以悲观者们仅仅从过去的状况来评论将来，那是脱离了现在的社会实际，没有注意到最近三十年来社会思潮的变化，没有把社会心理和舆论的作用估计在内。仅仅从镇压越来越强来看问题，仍然以为中国老百姓停留在几十年前的水平上，是犯了书呆子式的错误。
民主不是十全十美的，法治也不是万能的。但它确实比专制独裁好得多。老百姓通过比较认识到了民主的优势，就很难改变了。中共现在仍然在坚持挽救专制体制，就是在给他们自己挖掘坟墓。这是习近平们不给共产党人留后路的愚蠢之处。
聆听魏京生先生的相关录音，请访问：
http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2014/WeiJS140520ChinaWayOut99future.mp3
（撰写于2014年5月19日。录音于2014年5月20日。自由亚洲电台播出。）
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