Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A857-W550

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A857-W550

Release Date: December 21, 2014

发布日：2014年12月21日

Topic: Was It a Failure or a Victory? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：失败还是胜利？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

Note: Please use "Simplified Chinese (GB2312)" encoding to view the Chinese parts of this release. If this mail does not display properly in your email program, please send your request for special delivery to us or visit:

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Was It a Failure or a Victory?

-- Wei Jingsheng

The Hong Kong people's umbrella revolution to struggle for true universal suffrage has ended with the government forcefully clearing the way with violence. Some were shouting: failed, it has failed. To describe these people with a popular phrase in Taiwan, they are "praying for the worst". They are not so called elites, or maybe they are the elites who brown their noses with the Communist regime.

According to the art of war, as well as common sense, soldiers "praying for the worst" and calling for retreat while the war is going on, thus shaking the morale of the army, should get their heads chopped off. Now the first phase of this battle has ended. It is the time to learn a lesson from the past experience to get ready for the next round of fighting. When this struggle for true universal suffrage in Hong Kong ended with the government forcefully clearing the way with violence, there were more than 200 people who did not retreat but were arrested instead. I praise this "exit mechanism" that was taken in action and not just words. This action is to uphold the spirit of struggle. It is to keep some reserve. And it means the struggle is not over.

Instead, it was the Communist regime that made a small compromise. It did not try to settle the score now, but is waiting for its opportunities later. The more than 200 people arrested were quickly released, which is in line with the practice of the international community. So Xi Jinping should get a little bit of praise for this. Indeed he is a little wiser than those Communist bandits such as Deng Xiaoping and Wang Zhen. Xi did not turn the situation into "the fishes died while trying to break the net, while the net is broken as well". Thus he saved this country, saved the Communist Party, and meanwhile saved the democracy movement in Hong Kong.

Of course there are people who are not satisfied and even angry. People like Leung Chun-ying (Chief Executive of Hong Kong), Zhang Dejiang and a bunch of diehards with vested interest are very dissatisfied. But Xi Jinping made compromises, so they have no option but to wait for their turn to settle scores. Xi should not be foolish enough to give them the chance. This movement struggling for true universal suffrage in Hong Kong was not lead by one or two people. There were leaders everywhere. So to settle scores later on with more arrests would just create opportunities for people to take to the streets in protest again.

Further, the next time people would be better prepared, certainly with more momentum. Instead, I rather hope that Xi Jinping IS a little foolish, and makes concessions to these people who want to settle scores. Letting these people make trouble gives us an opportunity to test the Communist regime, as well as to see how heroes are made out of the people.

There is a quotation by the Communist leader Mao Zedong: the just cause has always has better effort after failure; then more effort after more failure, until the victory is achieved. This saying is quite correct. We should not waste good words despite they were said by the wrong person. We should do according to the correctness of the good words.

The just cause really follows such a law, that it can not reach its ultimate goal over night. However, we must retain the spirit, retain the momentum, to be better fit for another fight. What we should not do is, as the "three sons" did, "pray for the worst" even before the battle, and align themselves with Leung Chun-ying to breath out the same "illegal" words about the movement. In my view, these kinds of people are not normal people, could be lack spines or are spies.

In addition to retaining the spirit and the momentum, we also need to draw lessons. How could the Communist regime fool quite a few people and thus reduce the enthusiasm of people to participate? The main reason for this battle being almost lost is due to the hesitation of the democrats in Hong Kong, as well as not the best way of using the media to promote the cause.

The hesitation of the democrats in Hong Kong indicates this movement was in a rush to fight in response, without enough mental preparation and without leadership development. This lack is primarily the responsibility of the adults. The junky political culture that is popular in Hong Kong and Taiwan also played a negative role. Everyone was scrambling to stage a show for themselves, rather than spending time and energy spreading positive messages, thus voluntarily giving up the public opinion.

The biggest failure this time was to let the negative publicity of the Communist Party gradually prevail despite the strong support of the public. What played the biggest role is precisely this kind of junky culture popular in Hong Kong and Taiwan, that thinks politics consists of intrigues and deals, and heroes are made by way of putting up a show in any way possible, including unethical ways to create a buzz and publicity for fame. This kind of junky culture also greatly influenced the 1989 democratic movement in Mainland China and is one of the reasons it resulted in failure.

When people's time and effort are wasted to put up shows in any way possible to create buzz and publicity for fame, naturally they would ignore unknown work and give up public opinion. The mentality of only focusing on results rather than paying attention to the process, and wanting to be heroes without paying a price is the reason for the hesitation of the adults. These attitudes all affected and resulted in the failure of public opinion, and are the main reason for the movement to almost fail. Fortunately, the insistence of not retreating at the end retained the spirit of idealism.

Some people will find other reasons or unfavorable factors, and claim the media are all in the hands of the Communist regime. This is true, but not right. Indeed, the Communist regime does control most of the media including overseas Chinese media, through ways of buyout and penetration. But there is the Internet that they cannot fully control. The social media of Facebook, Twitter, etc. were the main tool of the Arabic Spring movement. The people in Hong Kong are known as technologically advanced. Why did they not take advantage of these advanced media? It was not negligence, but immaturity, including the influence of the junky culture.

From the experience of the Arabic Spring movement, we know that even though a government holds all the media, it will still lose to the publicity of the Internet. Here there is a very basic principle that did not get attention from the media study; that is how these recipients are willing to believe or not willing to believe. The rule of Nazi's Goebbels "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it" really has a premise which is that people still want to believe. His additional premise is that people can not hear the opinion outside of the lie.

The electronic Internet has precisely broken this monopoly of public opinion. Years of experience also make most people refuse to accept the Communist lies from its "Ministry of Truth". The fact that people do not believe the Communist regime even when it is telling the truth, enhanced the power of the online media. It is precisely due to this underlying disbelief that the Communist Party had to put a sheep skin over its wolf's body, to spend a lot of money and effort to buy the once free media, include that of the Westerners. However, the Internet offers so much freedom that the Communist regime cannot find a better way besides attempting to block the information and feed their online police.

Instead convincing some old men and old ladies one by one according to the guidance of one particular person, it is better to use the Internet to convince a large group of people who are ready and willing to accept. Further, it is even easier to connect with comrades of the same ambition through the Internet. Why waste time on a few people who might not follow as quickly? This path is an easy and quick way that we should take.

So the real way to the victory is to accumulate momentum for the next wave of pro-democracy movements that will come soon. In comparison to the revolution of the Westerners and the Arabs, the people in Hong Kong are indeed immature, like child's play. Some people actually believe that the Communist regime is an old gentleman for them to act like spoiled kids.

But the Communist Party is very serious indeed. They are acting to fight a big enemy while facing a deep abyss. Although it is unreasonable, it has taken advantage with proper measures, and thus did not fail all the way. This kind of dedication is indeed worthy of we democrats to learn and to follow suit.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2014/WeiJS141217HKconclusion.mp3

(Written and recorded on December 17, 2014. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A857-W550

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A857-W550

Release Date: December 21, 2014

发布日：2014年12月21日

Topic: Was It a Failure or a Victory? -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：失败还是胜利？ -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2014/report2014-12/WeiJS141221HKconclusionA857-W550.htm

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失败还是胜利？

-- 魏京生

香港人民争取真普选的雨伞运动,以政府暴力清场的方式结束了。有人高喊着：失败了，失败了。其实早在运动刚刚开始的时候，就有软骨头精英们高喊着：失败了，失败了。用台湾流行语形容，这些人就是唱衰派，不是什么精英，甚至可能是共产党的马屁精英。

按兵法也按常理，战斗正在进行中，唱衰喊撤退动摇军心者，应该论斩。现在第一阶段战斗结束了，反倒是总结经验教训以利再战的时候。争普选运动以警察清场结束，二百多人没有撤退而是被捕。我大笑着赞赏这个退场机制，在最后一刻只做不说。这就是坚持了抗争的精神。这就是留有后手。这就是没有结束。

倒是中共做了一个小小的妥协，没有立即算账而是等待秋后算账。抓了人之后很快就释放了，符合国际社会的惯例。所以也应该小小地表扬一下习近平，他确实比邓小平、王震那些土匪脑瓜明智一些，没有搞到鱼死网破，挽救了国家，挽救了党，顺便挽救了香港的民主运动。

当然有人不满意甚至愤怒。像梁振英、张德江和一众既得利益顽固派，是非常地不满意。习近平妥协了，他们没办法只好等待秋后算账。但是习近平不会傻到给他们机会。这场运动不是一个两个领袖，人人都争当领袖，遍地都是领袖。秋后算账再抓人，就是给再次上街制造机会。

而且下一次比这一次更有准备，肯定会更有声势。我倒希望习近平傻一点儿，向秋后算账派让步。让他们折腾，看看共产党是不是万里长城永不倒，也见识一下英雄是怎样炼成的。

毛主席教导我们说：正义的事业从来就是失败努力；再失败再努力，直至胜利。这话说的很对呀。不能因人废言，只要他说得对我们就照他的办。

正义的事业确实就是这么一种规律，没有一下子成功，达到最终目的的。但是要保留精神，保留气势，以利再战。不能像那个什么三子，还没开战就在那儿唱衰，和梁振英一个口气地说什么非法。不是奸细就是软骨病，反正不是什么正常人。

除了保留精神、保留气势之外，还需要总结经验教训。共产党为什么能够忽悠相当一些老百姓，降低了人民参与的热情？民主派自己犹犹豫豫，首鼠两端，再加上没有很好地利用媒体宣传。是这次险些败北的主要原因。

民主派犹犹豫豫，首鼠两端，说明这次运动是仓促应战，思想准备不够，而且没有形成领袖。这主要应该由成年人负责。港台流行的垃圾政治文化也起了很大的负作用。人人都争着作秀，而不去花时间和精力传播正面信息，自愿丢掉了舆论阵地。

在民意强烈支持下，让共产党的负面宣传渐渐地占了上风。这才是最大的失败。起最大作用的恰恰是港台流行的垃圾文化：认为政治就是阴谋诡计，就是交易；认为英雄都是炒作出来的。这种垃圾文化也大大地影响了大陆的民主运动，是1989年天安门民主运动失败的原因之一。

把时间和精力都浪费在作秀、炒作上面，自然就会忽视默默无闻的案头工作，放弃了舆论阵地。只重视结果而不重视过程，只想当英雄而不想付代价的心态，是成年人首鼠两端的原因。这些都影响到舆论战的失败，是运动险些失败的主要原因。还好，最后坚持不退却保留了理想主义的精神。

有人会给种种不利因素找理由，说媒体都在共产党手里。这话不假，但也不对。包括海外中文媒体在内，共产党确实收买、渗透掌握了绝大部分媒体。但是还有网络媒体他们不能完全掌握；脸书、推特等等正是阿拉伯之春运动的主要工具。香港人号称先进，为什么不会利用这些先进的媒体呢？这不是疏忽，是不成熟，包括受到垃圾文化的影响。

以阿拉伯之春运动的经验，即使政府掌握了所有的媒体，也不敌网络的宣传效果。这里边还有一个传媒学不重视的基本原理，就是受众愿意相信还是不愿意相信。戈培尔的谎话说千遍就成真理的规律，其前提就是人们还愿意相信。他的补充前提就是人们听不到谎话之外的舆论。

而电子网络恰恰打破了这种舆论垄断。多年的经验也使得大部分老百姓拒绝接受中共“真理部”的谎话。就是中共说了真话人们也不相信，这更增加了网络媒体的力量。也正因此，共产党不得不像披上羊皮的狼一样，花了大量的金钱和精力去收买曾经的自由媒体，包括西方人办的自由媒体。但是网络太自由了，除了封锁和豢养五毛，他们还没有更好的办法。

与其按照某些人的指点去一个一个说服老头老太婆，不如利用网络媒体说服一大片愿意接受的民众。而且在网络上更容易联系志向相同的同志，不必在个别脑瓜不灵光的人身上浪费时间。多快好省，何乐不为呢？

如此，为下一波很快就会到来的民主运动积累气势，是真正的制胜之道。和人家西方人、阿拉伯人的革命相比，香港人确实不成熟，像小孩子过家家。有人居然相信共产党是可以撒娇的老伯伯。

而人家共产党却很认真，如临大敌，如履深渊。虽无理，却有利有节，最终没有一败涂地。这种敬业精神，确实值得我们民主派学习，效仿。