Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A859-W552

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A859-W552

Release Date: January 31, 2015

发布日：2015年1月31日

Topic: Prospects to Greet the New Year of 2015 While Sending the Old Year Off -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：辞旧迎新的展望 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

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Prospects to Greet the New Year of 2015 While Sending the Old Year Off

-- Wei Jingsheng

Everyone loves to predict things, but I do not have that talent. I do not have the ability to predict over long times, so I will just say my prospects for the year ahead. In general, prediction requires a lot of information and data, which is in the scope of experts and scholars. It is the same need for the work of historians but in the opposite direction.

The historians talk about what has happened; yet often lack enough facts and have to rely on apocryphal data that requires a lot of speculation and inference. So it is naturally less credible to forecast based on past facts and data of unconfirmed quality.

Thus I often do not believe the people who predict by claiming facts and data, but lean more toward people who give prospects (instead of predictions) relying on experience and intuition. Extrapolating the big trends that may occur perhaps will result in a lucky hit.

In the last few years of China's affairs, the most significant should include the democratic movements in both Taiwan and Hong Kong. Some people will not agree. They would say the biggest move is that of Xi Jinping towards firmer dictatorship. But that is political change on a normal track, so it should not be considered as a major event. It is only because this move does not meet wishful predictions of certain elites, and hurts their pride. So for these elites to treat it as the biggest thing is not surprising.

Others will still refuse to accept my claim. They will say that Taiwan is already a democracy, so there is no more democratic movement. Remarks like this make a gross mistake. Democracy is a system of ongoing revolution and ongoing movement that has institutionalized reform and innovation. After the United States become independent and established a democratic system more than two hundred years ago, it has had bloodshed and even revolution with civil war. Thus we see the reality of progress that has made it a good model of the world.

Although Taiwan is known as an established democratic system, its first president of the democratic government was sent to jail, followed by a new president that not only moved closer to the authoritarian Mainland China, but also continuously released hitmen-style weapons that make people suspect of his intention to move toward autocracy. Although in comparison to Xi Jinping he was less successful, his moves are enough to make people scared and be concerned that a democratic future is in jeopardy in Taiwan.

Fortunately, the already established democratic system has self-renewal functions. The Sunflower Student Movement mobilized the excitement of the whole society through its discontent. Not only has it prevented President Ma Ying-Jeou from continuing his move closer to the mainland's authoritarian regime, but also led the KMT to lose its most important mid-term elections, thus forcing Ma to release the former president Chen in order to adapt to international practices and restore popular sentiment.

Hong Kong's situation is more difficult. There is no democracy, but only the legal and quasi-democratic system left by the Britons. After years of damage and weakening by the Communist Party, the legal system in Hong Kong has been degraded to a level close to Mainland China under the Communist regime. The political system in Hong Kong is a quasi-authoritarian one that the Britons gave to the Communist regime. Under the leadership of the patriotic leftists, people in Hong Kong silently accepted this result.

From this history, one already can see how complicated are the so-called democrats in Hong Kong. It is not enough to rely on them to fight against the Communist Party. Fortunately, the younger generation in Hong Kong received an education that is more open, with information that is also open enough. These young people are less influenced by traditional Chinese ideas of loyalty, patriotism, pragmatism and have less Communist brainwashing, thus they are capable of leading the rising tide.

There are relatively shortsighted people and Communist agents who would say that the Umbrella Revolution in Hong Kong has failed. This is a gross mistake. In fact, like moderate democratic revolutions in most countries, this revolution has made an impact while not being suppressed through armed force. It has created the conditions for the continuation of the movement, keeping the pressure on for the subsequent campaign.

Most importantly the participants did not retreat. They held on to the banner of idealism and maintained the confidence of supporters. This confidence is not only the confidence of the Hong Kong peoples' spontaneous striving for true universal suffrage, but also the confidence of the Mainland Chinese against the tyranny of the Communist Party. People in Mainland China have not only seen the examples of struggle, but also have seen the weakness of the Communist Party and thus increased their confidence.

What is this weakness? It is the infighting within the Communist leadership. It is impossible for a corrupt and despotic regime not to have infighting. When the corruption reached a turning point, anti-corruption became impossible. That is because most of the bureaucratic class has exceeded the level of the death penalty in China; anti-corruption against this can only be selective anti-corruption.

If there is a real anti-corruption crusade, then the situation will be official rebelling against officials. The whole bureaucratic class will stop its infighting and unite to rebel, equivalent to having a civil war. Maybe it will even lead to real civil war, as opposed to various forms of coup that give relatively modest results. So Xi Jinping does not really dare to have a real anti-corruption campaign.

Most observers have not woken up from their wishful thinking yet, and therefore did not notice the two major actions Xi Jinping has taken. One is to win over the leftists by attacking liberals; the other is to set his most important policy as being against forming different cliques within the Communist Party.

As a general rule, when the Communist Party is campaigning against the formation of cliques, it exactly indicates the cliques are rapidly forming, with a threat to the highest authorities. What could make the bureaucrats that unevenly divided their spoils unite together against a common enemy now? It certainly was not the so-called hostile forces of democrats; not the so-called anti-China international coalition; not the faith groups such as Falun Gong, Christian, and so on.

Those threats are still too far away. The closest threat is Wang Qishan, who wants to send corrupt officials to prisons, and Xi Jinping, Wang's supporter. Both Xi and Wang will not be fooled because they themselves are the masters of fooling the others. What the Communist Party declares as enemies are just false targets. The real targets are the corrupted officials. Further, no one knows who is not in this blacklist of selective anti-corruption.

Xi Jinping now is in a dilemma similar to riding on a tiger. He will lose popular support even faster if he does not carry out an anti-corruption campaign. The result would be everyone becoming rebels like Chen Sheng and Wu Guang (peasants rebels in ancient China). Yet Xi will lose the support of officials if he carries out an anti-corruption campaign. There would be officials who are braver than Bo Xilai and Ling Jihua to initiate a coup within the government and even unexpectedly rebel with soldiers. China is indeed terminally ill.

There are people who like to brown their noses who always say that Xi is playing chess on a huge scale. Xi's two major pillars are the second generation of red Communists and the Maoists on the left. This is indeed the reality that observers have seen. The second generation of red Communists has a historic relationship with Xi, while Maoists on the left have a wide range of sympathizers within the underprivileged people. The strategy of Xi Jinping is to rely on these two groups fighting against corrupt officials to save the Communist Party.

The major events that will break out this year probably will come out of this. There are a lot of second-generation Communists. However, those who have power and money are corrupted officials and profiteers themselves. Would they support an anti-corruption campaign and the return of communist ideals? On the other side, the Maoists on the left really are against the capitalists in power. So I am not optimistic about this chess game played by Xi Jinping. Let him play until the collapse of this authoritarian regime. This is just what we hope earnestly. Thank you, Mr. Xi.

To hear Mr. Wei Jingsheng's related commentary, please visit:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/RFA/RFA2015/WeiJS150107prospects2015.mp3

(Written and recorded on January 7, 2015. Broadcasted by Radio Free Asia.)

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中文版

Wei Jingsheng Foundation News and Article Release Issue: A859-W552

魏京生基金会新闻与文章发布号： A859-W552

Release Date: January 31, 2015

发布日：2015年1月31日

Topic: Prospects to Greet the New Year of 2015 While Sending the Old Year Off -- Wei Jingsheng

标题：辞旧迎新的展望 -- 魏京生

Original Language Version: Chinese (Chinese version at the end)

此号以中文为准（英文在前，中文在后）

如有中文乱码问题，请与我们联系或访问:

http://www.weijingsheng.org/report/report2015/report2015-01/WeiJS150131prospects2015A859-W552.htm

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辞旧迎新的展望

-- 魏京生

大家都喜欢预测什么，我没那个才气，没本事预测那么长时间，只敢说展望。一般来说预测需要很多的资料和数据，这是专家学者的工作范围。这和历史学家的工作相同而又相反。

历史学家根据已经发生过的事情解说，尚且事实和数据不足为信，需要大量的猜测和推理。预测家们根据过去的事实和数据来猜测和推理，而且不可能知道所有的事实和数据 , 可信度自然就更低。

所以我不相信根据事实和数据来预测的预言家；更相信那些非专业的，靠经验和直觉来预测的预言家，或者不如说是展望者。展望一下可能发生的大趋势，也许就歪打正着了。

中国的事情，近几年来最大的莫过于台湾和香港的民主运动。有人不同意，会说最大的应该是习近平走向独裁。但那是正常轨道上的正常现象，不能算大事。只不过不符合某些精英们一厢情愿的预测而已，伤了精英们的自尊心，被他们当作最大也不奇怪。

还有人不服。说是台湾已经民主了，应该没有民主运动了吧。此言差矣，大谬不然。民主是一个不断革命，不断运动，革故鼎新的体制。美国独立后建立起民主制度后，二百多年来流血牺牲甚至发生内战的革命不断。所以才有现在成为世界典范的良好现实。

台湾虽然号称建立了民主制度，但第一届民主政府的总统就进了监狱，随后新政府不但靠拢专制的大陆，而且不断放出疑似走向专制的杀手锏。虽然和习近平相比不太成功，但也足以使人心惊肉跳。民主的前途岌岌可危。

好在业已建立的民主制度有自我更新的功能。一场太阳花学运，发动了全社会的兴奋点或者说不满情绪。它不仅阻止了马英九继续靠拢大陆，而且导致国民党输掉了最重要的中期选举，进而迫使他不得不释放前总统，以此适应国际惯例挽回民心。

香港的形势更艰难一些。那里没有民主制度，只有英国人留下来的法制和准民主制度。而且经过共产党多年的破坏和削弱，法制已经退化到接近大陆共产党制度下的水平了。政治体制是英国人让给共产党的准专制体制。香港人民在爱国左派的带领下，默默无声地接受了这个结果。

从这个历史已经可以看出，香港的所谓民主派有多么复杂，靠他们无法与共产党抗争。好在年轻的几代人接受的是更加开放的教育，信息也足够开放。他们较少受忠君爱国加实用主义的传统思想和中共洗脑的影响，能够领导潮流揭竿而起。

比较鼠目寸光的人和五毛们说，雨伞运动已经失败了。其实大谬不然。实际上它和民主国家的大部分温和革命一样，既造成了影响，也没有遭到武力镇压。这为运动的延续创造了条件，为这场运动保持了后续的压力。

最重要的是参与者没有撤退，保持了理想主义的旗帜，保持了支持者的信心。这个信心不但是香港人民自发争取真普选的信心；而且是大陆人民反抗共产党暴政的信心。大陆人民不但看到了抗争的榜样，而且看到了共产党的软肋，因此而信心倍增。

这个软肋是什么？就是共产党的内斗。一个贪污腐败的专制体制，不内斗是不可能的。腐败发展到一个转折点，反腐败就成为不可能。因为官僚阶级的大多数已经超过了死刑的水平；而反这个不反那个，就是选择性反腐。

真反腐就必定是官逼官反了。整个官僚阶级就会停止分赃不均的内斗，联合起来造反，形同内战。说不定就真正内战起来了，各种形式的政变都是比较温和的结果。所以习近平不敢真反腐。

观察家们大都还没从一厢情愿中醒悟过来，因此没注意到习近平的两大动作。一个是打击自由派拉拢左派；一个是把反对党内拉帮结派作为最重要的政策。

一般的规律，共产党反对拉帮结派，就说明拉帮结派正在迅速进展，而且威胁到最高当局。现在什么能使分赃不均的官僚们团结起来对付共同的敌人呢？不是所谓的民主派敌对势力；不是什么国际反华联盟；更不是法轮功、基督教等等信仰团体。

那些威胁还太远。最近的威胁就是要把这些贪官们送进监狱的王岐山，和他的后台习近平。他们不会被共产党忽悠，他们自己就是忽悠别人的高手。共产党宣称的敌人都是假目标，真目标就是他们这帮贪官。而且谁也不知道选择性反腐的黑名单里没有谁。

现在的习近平是骑虎难下，进退两难。不反腐就会加速失去民心，结果人人都会是陈胜、吴广。而反腐会失去官心。总有官员比薄熙来、令计划勇敢，宫廷政变以至于拥兵造反也会不期而至。中国确实已经病入膏肓了。

马屁精们老爱说习近平在下一盘很大的棋。他的两大支柱就是红二代和毛左。这倒是观察家们都看见的现实。红二代和小习有历史渊源；毛左在贫苦大众里有广泛的同情者。小习的策略就是靠这两者来对抗贪官集团，来挽救共产党。

今年的大事可能就出在这里边。红二代人数很多，但有权有钱的也不外是贪官和奸商，能支持反腐和回归共产主义理想吗？毛左支持毛泽东是假，反对走资本主义的当权派是真。我不看好小习的这盘棋，就让他玩到专制政权崩溃吧。这才是我们所期望的。谢谢习总。